11 STARTS....

[macaroni]

JP has showed progress.

 

IMO,  he plays until Dick,  Marv and company tell him not to.

 

I'm sick of hearing about his record.

 

One more time for the thick headed,  Jim Kelly was 4-12 in his first 16 games.

 

I think Alaska Darin eluded to it,  thank god we kept him. 

 

Also,  thank god TBD wasn't around then,  or some of us would have been arguing with JDG and Reichs Arm.

789536[/snapback]

 

Agreed ....... however the salient point of my post wasn't to debate the progress or non-progress of JP ............ or to second guess the coaching staff/front office.

 

I was just wondering what that magic line of demarcation was when a prospect goes from a prospect to a football player.

 

The only reason JP is even mentioned is to make it gemaine to our frame of mind .......... to make my post less controversal ........... let's say .........

 

little Joey Shablonic from WassaMatta U gets drafted by the Toad Lip Iowa Froglegs. The Froglegs cut there starting QB of last year and hand the job to Joey knowing they are in "rebuilding mode" ..... and Joey may as well get experiance this year.

 

NOW ......... keeping in mind ....... the Tampa Bay Bucks (and their fans) felt that Steve Young wasn't talented enough to play on their God awful team (not to mention a number of other QBs not as sucessfull, but who have none-the-less gone on to fruitfull careers with other teams). This also applies to other teams .... but I'm too darn lazy to dig up examples.

 

Also keeping in mind ........ sometimes Joey is going to look good on paper, but not play well ......... and other times deceptivley have piss poor "stats" but in all reality play a good game .......... knowing we will show promise some of the time ..... and falter others to really stink up the joint.

 

The question is .................... how many starts does Joey get before the knowledgable among us stop giving the excuse he is just gaining experiance.

 

 

To put this in a frame of reference ........... I have heard it normally takes a WR about two to three years before he reaches his potential.

 

I've also heard that a RB can be expected to "contribute" right out of college, however, it takes about a year of experiance before he is picking up blitz assignments etc.

[Risin]

Agreed ....... however the salient point of my post wasn't to debate the progress or non-progress of JP ............ or to second guess the coaching staff/front office.

 

I was just wondering what that magic line of demarcation was when a prospect goes from a prospect to a football player.

 

The only reason JP is even mentioned is to make it gemaine to our frame of mind .......... to make my post less controversal ........... let's say .........

 

little Joey Shablonic from WassaMatta U gets drafted by the Toad Lip Iowa Froglegs. The Froglegs cut there starting QB of last year and hand the job to Joey knowing they are in  "rebuilding mode" ..... and Joey may as well get experiance this year.

 

NOW ......... keeping in mind ....... the Tampa Bay Bucks (and their fans) felt that Steve Young wasn't talented enough to play on their God awful team (not to mention a number of other QBs not as sucessfull, but who have none-the-less gone on to fruitfull careers with other teams). This also applies to other teams .... but I'm too darn lazy to dig up examples.

 

Also keeping in mind ........ sometimes Joey is going to look good on paper, but not play well ......... and other times deceptivley have piss poor "stats" but in all reality play a good game .......... knowing we will show promise some of the time ..... and falter others to really stink up the joint.

 

The question is .................... how many starts does Joey get before the knowledgable among us stop giving the excuse he is just gaining experiance.

To put this in a frame of reference ........... I have heard it normally takes a WR about two to three years before he reaches his potential.

 

I've also heard that a RB can be expected to "contribute" right out of college, however, it takes about a year of experiance before he is picking up blitz assignments etc.

789555[/snapback]

 

 

According to Bill Walsh, you know if your QB is gonna be good or bad within 30 starts.

 

I don't have a link, I believe I heard it during a Ravens preseason game, it was supposedly a question Billick proposed to Walsh, in reference to Kyle Boller.

 

Hope that helps.

 

[Kelly the Dog]

Agreed ....... however the salient point of my post wasn't to debate the progress or non-progress of JP ............ or to second guess the coaching staff/front office.

 

I was just wondering what that magic line of demarcation was when a prospect goes from a prospect to a football player.

 

The only reason JP is even mentioned is to make it gemaine to our frame of mind .......... to make my post less controversal ........... let's say .........

 

little Joey Shablonic from WassaMatta U gets drafted by the Toad Lip Iowa Froglegs. The Froglegs cut there starting QB of last year and hand the job to Joey knowing they are in  "rebuilding mode" ..... and Joey may as well get experiance this year.

 

NOW ......... keeping in mind ....... the Tampa Bay Bucks (and their fans) felt that Steve Young wasn't talented enough to play on their God awful team (not to mention a number of other QBs not as sucessfull, but who have none-the-less gone on to fruitfull careers with other teams). This also applies to other teams .... but I'm too darn lazy to dig up examples.

 

Also keeping in mind ........ sometimes Joey is going to look good on paper, but not play well ......... and other times deceptivley have piss poor "stats" but in all reality play a good game .......... knowing we will show promise some of the time ..... and falter others to really stink up the joint.

 

The question is .................... how many starts does Joey get before the knowledgable among us stop giving the excuse he is just gaining experiance.

To put this in a frame of reference ........... I have heard it normally takes a WR about two to three years before he reaches his potential.

 

I've also heard that a RB can be expected to "contribute" right out of college, however, it takes about a year of experiance before he is picking up blitz assignments etc.

789555[/snapback]

As there is in torture and bribes, everybody has a tipping point. No two players or situations are the same. It's ridiculous, IMO, to set an arbitrary number of 5,9, 12 games, etc. It makes a little sense to re-evaluate after a generic figure, like one full season, but that isn't something that should be done either. If anything it's the least amount before you know for sure much of anything.

 

Otherwise, your evaluation of whether a player has it or doesn't have it goes week to week, noting that a great game does not make him a great player or a three game slide does not make him a sure bust. There are two dozen other factors involved, too, like his supporting cast, what he is improving on and what he isn't, are the things he's not getting physical limitations or mental ones, is the light slowly starting to come on, etc.

 

Some guys progress faster than others but they have different limits. One may wish to wait on a player like Losman who has all the physical tools longer than say, AVP, who is lacking in physical tools. How your season is progressing also determines whether we need to pull the plug sooner or later. It's much more of a "I'll know it when I see it" thing than a "Okay, he gets 10 weeks to prove it" thing. And just because one great player's light came on after 17 weeks, that can't be the benchmark either.

 

There is also the ever elusive "it" factor. Does this guy got it or not got it. There isn't a time frame for that either, and it's not an exact science, and just because he shows it once or twice relatively early does not ensure that he's going to do it again. A poster remarked earlier that Favre played in the Pro Bowl his first year as a starter. Well, his coach wanted to bench him in the middle of his fourth year but he decided against it and now he's a Hall of Famer.

 

It's more of a feel than anything else. How many coaches in this league have thought to themselves I am the guy that can get Rob Johnson to play up to his potential. It was still going on this August. Dick Jauron and Marv Levy and Steve Fairchild's idea of how long do we wait to see whether we believe JP is our franchise guy has yet to be determined yet, even by them. And when they determine it, it will be different than when Mike Mularkey or Mike Holmgren or Bill Bellicheck or anyone else would make that same determination. In other words, there is no time table.

[DeLuca1967]

I've seen all I need of JP the final four plays of the Jets game.

 

That was his moment to step up and become a quality NFL QB. He crapped the bed.

 

He looked scared, unprepared and lost. And don't give that "it was his first time in that situation" crap. He's been playing footbal since his was 8.

 

The good thing is that the Bills have a few years until they will contend. That is plenty of time to go out and find a real NFL starting QB. That of course depends on the Bills going out and filling the vacant GM job.

[Kelly the Dog]

I've seen all I need of JP the final four plays of the Jets game.

 

That was his moment to step up and become a quality NFL QB. He crapped the bed.

 

He looked scared, unprepared and lost. And don't give that "it was his first time in that situation" crap. He's been playing footbal since his was 8.

 

The good thing is that the Bills have a few years until they will contend. That is plenty of time to go out and find a real NFL starting QB. That of course depends on the Bills going out and filling the vacant GM job.

789623[/snapback]

So the play he made on 4th-6 on the six with 1:25 to go means absolutely nothing (I assume because the Jets really weren't trying hard, and were in their "endzone prevent defense", and there wasn't any pressure at all) but the play he made at 1:15 or 1:10 left left is all you need to know. Got ya.

[Fan in San Diego]

I'm not J.P. bashing ....... so don't everyone jump up to give me a load of crapola .... I'm just wondering at what point is it politically correct for a team (and it's fans) to give up on a QB prospect??????

 

As pointed out, J. P. has only 11 starts ....... but ...... his record is something like 2-9 (if I remember correctly). In these 11 starts he has sometimes shown signs of a quality QB, but most times has looked pretty horrible. Even (as last week) when he puts up good statisical numbers they are not indicitive of his overall performance (sometimes his "numbers" aren't so good, but he had performed well).

 

I guess the nexus of my question lies with the Bucks ....... a good number of QBs were not "good enough" to play on that team when it was stinking out the NFL ...... however a good number of them went to other teams to varying levels of sucess ... Steve Young ..... Brad Johnson .... come immediatly to mind.

So your thoughts please ......... when does J. P. "go on the clock" where a self respecting fan can boo a bad outing without hearing the excuse "he has only (fill in the blank) starts".

789525[/snapback]

 

Last year doesn't even count. He is getting better each week. At the end of the year I would see where his development looks !

[cåblelady]

I've seen all I need of JP the final four plays of the Jets game.

 

789623[/snapback]

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

I've seen all I need of JP the final four plays of the Jets game.

 

That was his moment to step up and become a quality NFL QB. He crapped the bed.

 

He looked scared, unprepared and lost. And don't give that "it was his first time in that situation" crap. He's been playing footbal since his was 8.

 

The good thing is that the Bills have a few years until they will contend. That is plenty of time to go out and find a real NFL starting QB. That of course depends on the Bills going out and filling the vacant GM job.

789623[/snapback]

 

ridiculous. all you need to see in the last 4 plays? i recall a game when jimbo tossed a horrible intereception against the dolphins---it was 2nd and goal, 3rd and goal, some'in like that. returned for a touchdown, 100 yards or so--in our house. one of the foremost attributes a qb can have is to toss the pick like that, chase the guy down to the extent he can, and then move on and forget it.

 

one of the telling moments of the jets game was jp scrambling for the touchdown, and spiking the ball the way men used to spike it before there was an emmy awarded for fancy end zone celebrations. he appeared frustrated and pissed off and should have been after being able to put the jets away early.

 

and since football remains a team game, give the guy credit for tossing a ball perfectly that price let slip off his fingers for 6.

 

and, for suggesting the unthinkable about marv as gm, you should be forced to wear a teal sweathshirt to the ralph and have a dolphin tattooed on your ass (they'd have to work around your thumb, of course).

[Risin]

ridiculous.  all you need to see in the last 4 plays?  i recall a game when jimbo tossed a horrible intereception against the dolphins---it was 2nd and goal, 3rd and goal, some'in like that.  returned for a touchdown, 100 yards or so--in our house.  one of the foremost attributes a qb can have is to toss the pick like that, chase the guy down to the extent he can, and then move on and forget it.

 

one of the telling moments of the jets game was jp scrambling for the touchdown, and spiking the ball the way men used to spike it before there was an emmy awarded for fancy end zone celebrations.  he appeared frustrated and pissed off and should have been after being able to put the jets away early. 

 

and since football remains a team game, give the guy credit for tossing a ball perfectly that price let slip off his fingers for 6. 

 

and, for suggesting the unthinkable about marv as gm, you should be forced to wear a teal sweathshirt to the ralph and have a dolphin tattooed on your ass (they'd have to work around your thumb, of course).

789685[/snapback]

 

 

Awesome post.

[Astrobot]

Daunte Culpepper , first year: 8.3 yards per attempt

Drew Brees, first year: 8.2 yards per attempt

Jake Delhomme, first year: 7.2 yards per attempt

 

Brett Favre, first year: 6.9 yards per attempt

Terry Bradshaw, first year: 6.5 yards per attempt

John Elway, first year: 6.4 yards per attempt

Kerry Collins, first year: 6.3 yards per attempt

Mark Brunell, first year: 6.3 yards per attempt

Bob Greise, first year: 6.1 yards per attempt

Troy Aikman, first year: 6.0 yards per attempt

Drew Bledsoe, first year: 5.8 yards per attempt

David Carr, first year: 5.8yards per attempt

 

 

Joe Ferguson, first year: 5.7 yards per attempt

Jim Kelly, first year: 7.5 yards per attempt

JP Losman, so far: 7.3 yards per attempt

 

I'll stick with JP.

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

Awesome post.

789715[/snapback]

 

thanks. i want to be fair on this, and those last couple passes in the jets game were bad. without getting into the debate about the rain coming down, you want to see those passes hauled in. but to wash your hands on the guy who just brought you back into the game seems, well, not fair.

[keepthefaith]

ridiculous.  all you need to see in the last 4 plays?  i recall a game when jimbo tossed a horrible intereception against the dolphins---it was 2nd and goal, 3rd and goal, some'in like that.  returned for a touchdown, 100 yards or so--in our house.  one of the foremost attributes a qb can have is to toss the pick like that, chase the guy down to the extent he can, and then move on and forget it.

 

one of the telling moments of the jets game was jp scrambling for the touchdown, and spiking the ball the way men used to spike it before there was an emmy awarded for fancy end zone celebrations.  he appeared frustrated and pissed off and should have been after being able to put the jets away early. 

 

and since football remains a team game, give the guy credit for tossing a ball perfectly that price let slip off his fingers for 6. 

 

and, for suggesting the unthinkable about marv as gm, you should be forced to wear a teal sweathshirt to the ralph and have a dolphin tattooed on your ass (they'd have to work around your thumb, of course).

789685[/snapback]

 

Completely agree. JP, IMO which means nothing to most of you, is a star in the making if he has a decent supporting cast. Yes, a star. You're starting to see a little "damn the torpedos" attitude in him along with the athletic ability, better decision making and confidence. With a young team on offense, there is a nice opportunity for good chemistry to develop if they keep the important parts together and add a couple. If he can convert just a few rough plays per game to successful plays, he's a different player and the Bills are a potent offense. And maybe the best sign that he is on his way is the way in which he stands up and admit errors and commits himself to correcting them. That's leadership.

[BuffOrange]

i recall a game when jimbo tossed a horrible intereception against the dolphins---it was 2nd and goal, 3rd and goal, some'in like that.  returned for a touchdown, 100 yards or so--in our house. 

789685[/snapback]

 

I recall Jimbo retiring after that season. Preceded by a bogus grounding call too.

[Tortured Soul]

Astrobot,

 

First, good thinking. I think YPA is a way underrated statistic and is a very good way to measure a quarterback's performance.

 

I think your analysis largely depends on whether it is fair to consider this JP's first year. It is his third in the league, and he did have eight starts before this season. By comparison, Kerry Collins' season that you list was his first - and his franchise's first as well. By his second year, he was a Pro Bowler.

 

Also, it doesn't make much sense to compare JP to quarterbacks of previous eras. Statistics were just too different then.

[Tortured Soul]

But being 13th in the league in YPA is not bad at all.

[DeLuca1967]

So the play he made on 4th-6 on the six with 1:25 to go means absolutely nothing (I assume because the Jets really weren't trying hard, and were in their "endzone prevent defense", and there wasn't any pressure at all) but the play he made at 1:15 or 1:10 left left is all you need to know. Got ya.

789627[/snapback]

 

Great QB's aren't made in the first quarter or garbage time. They are made when when they face adversity and the games on the line. When the game was on the line JP was lost. He played scared.

 

That's all I needed see.

[inkman]

Great QB's aren't made in the first quarter or garbage time. They are made when when they face adversity and the games on the line. When the game was on the line JP was lost. He played scared.

 

That's all I needed see.

789813[/snapback]

 

According to your logic; Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Drew Brees, and a host of others never would have made it.

[DeLuca1967]

ridiculous.  all you need to see in the last 4 plays?  i recall a game when jimbo tossed a horrible intereception against the dolphins---it was 2nd and goal, 3rd and goal, some'in like that.  returned for a touchdown, 100 yards or so--in our house.  one of the foremost attributes a qb can have is to toss the pick like that, chase the guy down to the extent he can, and then move on and forget it.

 

one of the telling moments of the jets game was jp scrambling for the touchdown, and spiking the ball the way men used to spike it before there was an emmy awarded for fancy end zone celebrations.  he appeared frustrated and pissed off and should have been after being able to put the jets away early. 

 

and since football remains a team game, give the guy credit for tossing a ball perfectly that price let slip off his fingers for 6. 

 

and, for suggesting the unthinkable about marv as gm, you should be forced to wear a teal sweathshirt to the ralph and have a dolphin tattooed on your ass (they'd have to work around your thumb, of course).

789685[/snapback]

 

The only telling moment was when the game was on the line and JP crapped the bed. Nothing else he did in the game matters.

 

And to compare JP to a HOF QB is an embarrassment. Kelly made a ton of bad throws in games. But when the game was on the line you knew what you had. You knew you had a chance. You knew the ball was going down field. Did any of JP throws make it past the first down marker on the final drive? I don't think they did.

 

As far as Levy goes. You don't still believe he is the Bills GM do you. That's he is somehow something more then a glorified Walmart greeter that gets paid to tell jokes to the media? You can't be that gullible. But then again that's what the Bills were counting on.

[macaroni]

I've seen all I need of JP the final four plays of the Jets game.

 

That was his moment to step up and become a quality NFL QB. He crapped the bed.

 

He looked scared, unprepared and lost. And don't give that "it was his first time in that situation" crap. He's been playing footbal since his was 8.

 

The good thing is that the Bills have a few years until they will contend. That is plenty of time to go out and find a real NFL starting QB. That of course depends on the Bills going out and filling the vacant GM job.

789623[/snapback]

 

 

This post is a perfect example of WHY I pose my question ......... while I agree that J.P. may have "craped the bed" on those last four plays (as well as the safety in the NE game), those instances are EXACTLY what we should expect from a young inexperianced QB ......... however, we should be willing to overlook the occasional plays (and series of plays) such as these as a "learning curve".

 

On the flip side a young an inexperianced QB will at times have an outstanding play (or series of plays) but we should also dismiss these plays in the overall scope of the universe as youth and exhuberance pulling the QB out of a sticky situation.

 

 

As of now, I'm pretty neutral on J.P., I want him to be great because I'm a Bills fan, but I also understand that just because he is a Bill does not MAKE him great. While I'm not about to give up on J.P. because of a hand full of plays these last 11 games ................. I'm not about to annoint him the second coming based on a handful of plays these last 11 games.

[RayFinkle]

Daunte Culpepper , first year: 8.3 yards per attempt

Drew Brees, first year: 8.2 yards per attempt

Jake Delhomme, first year: 7.2 yards per attempt

 

Brett Favre, first year: 6.9 yards per attempt

Terry Bradshaw, first year: 6.5 yards per attempt

John Elway, first year: 6.4 yards per attempt

Kerry Collins, first year: 6.3 yards per attempt

Mark Brunell, first year: 6.3 yards per attempt

Bob Greise, first year: 6.1 yards per attempt

Troy Aikman, first year: 6.0 yards per attempt

Drew Bledsoe, first year: 5.8 yards per attempt

David Carr, first year: 5.8yards per attempt

Joe Ferguson, first year: 5.7 yards per attempt

Jim Kelly, first year: 7.5 yards per attempt

JP Losman, so far: 7.3 yards per attempt

 

I'll stick with JP.

789719[/snapback]

JP Definitely needs more time before we can say he isn't the man, but these comparisons don't really mean much as a vast majority of those guys were rookies their first year as starter. HUGE difference between a second of third year guy and a rook.