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Are the Vikings better on paper?


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Offense -- Johnson is a proven commodity at QB and Hutch is a premiere G, but who do they have to strike fear into opposing defenses? Chester Taylor? Troy Williamson? They've scored fewer points than Buffalo during the first three weeks of the season.

 

Defense -- D line is excellent. LBs are so-so, and secondary is average. Hard to say this defense is "better" than Buffalo's on paper.

 

Special Teams -- Great fake FG in week two, but nobody matches up well with the Bills' ST.

 

I suppose my point is that I don't know why the Vikings would be considered the favorite on Sunday, on the road, unless that determination is solely based upon their experience at QB.

 

This is an extremely winnable game for the Bills if they do not take a step backward from their performance to date.

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Offense -- Johnson is a proven commodity at QB and Hutch is a premiere G, but who do they have to strike fear into opposing defenses?  Chester Taylor?  Troy Williamson?  They've scored fewer points than Buffalo during the first three weeks of the season.

 

Defense -- D line is excellent.  LBs are so-so, and secondary is average.  Hard to say this defense is "better" than Buffalo's on paper.

 

Special Teams -- Great fake FG in week two, but nobody matches up well with the Bills' ST.

 

I suppose my point is that I don't know why the Vikings would be considered the favorite on Sunday, on the road, unless that determination is solely based upon their experience at QB.

 

This is an extremely winnable game for the Bills if they do not take a step backward from their performance to date.

788513[/snapback]

 

Wow. Just what I said two days ago :D

 

Right on, man. The only teams on the Bills schedule I fear are Indy, SD and the Bears. Beyond that, I think the Bills can hang with anybody.

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I hope you are right, but the Vikings are certainly a better team than the Jets. Like Pennington, Johnson is a heady QB with a better arm (Not saying much, I know). In the first 3 games, the Vikings have been patient with the run -- and Taylor has been a workhorse. He may not bust any long runs, but he'll eat our defense up with plenty of 4-yard carries, which should set up the play-action pass.

 

Contrary to your assessment, the Vikings do have a very good defense, starting up front with 3 of their 4 starting defensive linemen being former first round draft picks. The only one who wasn't a first rounder is the one who may be the best: Big Pat Williams, remember him? The Vikings have also improved their secondary and linebacking corps.

 

As for what has happened in the first 3 weeks, the Vikings have had a very tough schedule having to start 2 tough road games against the Redskins and Panthers. Last week they lost a heartbreaker at home to the Bears.

 

I've been very impressed with Brad Childress through these first 3 weeks. He clearly out-coached Gibbs and Fox in those first two contests. He will undoubtedly use the same gameplan that the Jets exercised last week against us -- and may mix in an occasional deep pass or two to try to keep out safeties honest.

 

This won't be a cakewalk, but I think we can win a nailbiter if the DL can penetrate. The Vikings' WRs don't scare me, so I think our DBs can afford to be more physical than they were last week against the Jets, which should prevent Johnson from making completions on the quick 3-step drops as Pennington was able to do last week.

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Their OLine matching up against our DLine scares me. McKinney, Hutch, and Birk anchoring the left side of their line is advantage MIN. I hope TKO is back to help offset this advantage.

 

Other than that, I think we match up well with them. I don't think Mcgahee is going to have a big game and it is going to come down to what JP can do, and if our ST will show why they are the best in the NFL.

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As for what has happened in the first 3 weeks, the Vikings have had a very tough schedule having to start 2 tough road games against the Redskins and Panthers. Last week they lost a heartbreaker at home to the Bears.

 

I've been very impressed with Brad Childress through these first 3 weeks. He clearly out-coached Gibbs and Fox in those first two contests. He will undoubtedly use the same gameplan that the Jets exercised last week against us -- and may mix in an occasional deep pass or two to try to keep out safeties honest.

788539[/snapback]

 

They won against the Panthers at the home.

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Let's look at a more advanced stat: DVOA. The explanation of DVOA can be found at football outsider.

 

(1) Offense DVOA

Bills: 3.6%, 10th in the league. => Pass offense: -0.7%(19th). Rush offense: 7.6%(5th)

Vikings: -11.6%, 23th. => Pass offense: -0.7%(19th). Rush offense: -21.8%(27th)

 

(2) Defense DVOA

Bills: -2.4%, 17th. => Pass defense: -12.8%(11th). Rush defense: 6.7%(25th)

Vikings: -8.9%, 11th. => Pass defense: -0.4%(17th). Rush defense: -19.6%(11th)

Bills fans will start to disagree DVOA here, but please take a look at how DVOA is calculated first.

(3) Special Team DVOA

Bills: 6.8%, 2nd in the league.

Vikings: -3.1%, 23th in the league.

 

 

Another interesting stat is DSR (Drive Success Rate),

 

Bills offensive DSR is 0.633, 22nd.

Vikings offensive DSR is .597, 30th.

 

Bills defensive DSR is .653, 17th

Vikings defensive DSR is .608, 7th

 

One of main problems on Bills defense is that they couldn't kill opposite team's drives. Also, Bills defense's TD/DR is 0.188, which is 20th in NFL. Vikings TD/DR is only 0.088, 6th in the league.

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"On paper" means nothing for the Bills this year because if you look at our two losses, they have a very common thread: the Pats and Jets didn't beat us, we beat ourselves.

 

Fortunately, Miami is so freakin' inept this year on OL that we were able to get away with a W, but until this team stops beating itself...and there is no evidence that it will happen anytime soon...what you see on paper can be crumbled up and pushed up the ass of a gnat because it's worthless.

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Contrary to your assessment, the Vikings do have a very good defense, starting up front with 3 of their 4 starting defensive linemen being former first round draft picks. The only one who wasn't a first rounder is the one who may be the best: Big Pat Williams, remember him? The Vikings have also improved their secondary and linebacking corps.

 

This won't be a cakewalk, but I think we can win a nailbiter if the DL can penetrate. The Vikings' WRs don't scare me, so I think our DBs can afford to be more physical than they were last week against the Jets, which should prevent Johnson from making completions on the quick 3-step drops as Pennington was able to do last week.

788539[/snapback]

My assessment acknowledged the Vikes' strength at D-line; I'm just not impressed with their "back 7."

 

I have to believe Fewell won't allow a team to dink and dunk us to death again. That means playing our corners tight and not allowing the QB to get off 3-step throws.

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"On paper" means nothing for the Bills this year because if you look at our two losses, they have a very common thread: the Pats and Jets didn't beat us, we beat ourselves.

 

Fortunately, Miami is so freakin' inept this year on OL that we were able to get away with a W, but until this team stops beating itself...and there is no evidence that it will happen anytime soon...what you see on paper can be crumbled up and pushed up the ass of a gnat because it's worthless.

788580[/snapback]

 

The "we beat ourselves" self-assement tends towards ensuring more of the same...

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Their OLine matching up against our DLine scares me.  McKinney, Hutch, and Birk anchoring the left side of their line is advantage MIN.  I hope TKO is back to help offset this advantage.

 

Other than that, I think we match up well with them.  I don't think Mcgahee is going to have a big game and it is going to come down to what JP can do, and if our ST will show why they are the best in the NFL.

788540[/snapback]

 

I don't need McGahee to score 150 yards rushing....but I definitely want a ball control offense, where McGahee runs for 75-80 yards and Losman throws 175 yards with 0 turnovers...We have a good shot at winning this game with the above

stats.

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I suppose my point is that I don't know why the Vikings would be considered the favorite on Sunday, on the road, unless that determination is solely based upon their experience at QB.

 

This is an extremely winnable game for the Bills if they do not take a step backward from their performance to date.

788513[/snapback]

 

Man some of you guys should be coaches, because you convince yourselves we're underdogs when we're not!

 

But yeah, Minnesota is a better team right now at the 3 most important positions: OL, DL, and QB. We have better fantasy players, but we should know how important that is by now.

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