eball Posted September 12, 2006 Share Posted September 12, 2006 Interesting. I thought the Bills looked more impressive at New England than did Miami at Pittsburgh -- facing a 2nd string QB. I believe Buffalo's defense has a distinct advantage in this game -- the veteran holdovers know how Mularkey likes to call a game and will probably key on his tendencies. That, and Daunte Culpepper has freakishly small hands for such a big man. Look for Buffalo to force 3 or 4 TOs and win this one outright. It's going to take a couple of weeks for the public to catch on that the Bills are going to be in every game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffan00 Posted September 12, 2006 Share Posted September 12, 2006 Interesting. I thought the Bills looked more impressive at New England than did Miami at Pittsburgh -- facing a 2nd string QB. I believe Buffalo's defense has a distinct advantage in this game -- the veteran holdovers know how Mularkey likes to call a game and will probably key on his tendencies. That, and Daunte Culpepper has freakishly small hands for such a big man. Look for Buffalo to force 3 or 4 TOs and win this one outright. It's going to take a couple of weeks for the public to catch on that the Bills are going to be in every game. 770815[/snapback] Yep..we stop Ronnie Brown...we WIN~~ Simple as that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike formerly from Florida Posted September 12, 2006 Share Posted September 12, 2006 Yep..we stop Ronnie Brown...we WIN~~ Simple as that! 770827[/snapback] Tsk Tsk Tsk...you guys are overlooking the most important element..the conspiracy element. You think the league is going to allow the Dolphins to go 0-2. Watch the refs do their little dance on the Bills' heads again this week. You Bills fans have to start dealing with reality...the script has already been written. We have NO chance Sunday. That's why I won't be watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BUFFALOTONE Posted September 12, 2006 Share Posted September 12, 2006 Yep..we stop Ronnie Brown...we WIN~~ Simple as that! 770827[/snapback] Ya Ya thats about right. I dont think DC can beat us if he has to.If we pressure him like we did Brady then we will make it very tough for them. All we have to do is keep blitzing through Fat Bennies gap and its good night nurse. Also if TKO plays the whole game then we can dictate what there offense is going to do. We saw how big of a factor he was in just one play. This guy is unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokinandjokin Posted September 12, 2006 Share Posted September 12, 2006 Tsk Tsk Tsk...you guys are overlooking the most important element..the conspiracy element. You think the league is going to allow the Dolphins to go 0-2.Watch the refs do their little dance on the Bills' heads again this week. You Bills fans have to start dealing with reality...the script has already been written. We have NO chance Sunday. That's why I won't be watching. 770836[/snapback] The genius that is Mike Mularkey will counteract any benefit gained from the officials. The refs and meathead cancel each other out. This one will be decided by the players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDBillzFan Posted September 12, 2006 Share Posted September 12, 2006 I am hoping that Meathead has not yet learned how to adjust his second-half gameplan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
udonkey Posted September 12, 2006 Share Posted September 12, 2006 I'll take that spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan in San Diego Posted September 12, 2006 Share Posted September 12, 2006 Tsk Tsk Tsk...you guys are overlooking the most important element..the conspiracy element. You think the league is going to allow the Dolphins to go 0-2.Watch the refs do their little dance on the Bills' heads again this week. You Bills fans have to start dealing with reality...the script has already been written. We have NO chance Sunday. That's why I won't be watching. 770836[/snapback] I don't believe in conspiracies. People are not that good at keeping secrets, this one would leak and blow up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike formerly from Florida Posted September 12, 2006 Share Posted September 12, 2006 I don't believe in conspiracies. People are not that good at keeping secrets, this one would leak and blow up. 770941[/snapback] If it continues to, as transparent as it was on Sunday, it will leak! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pyrite Gal Posted September 12, 2006 Share Posted September 12, 2006 Remember that the relationship between the quality of the teams and the line is not the primary driver here. The goal of the betting line is to set a figure which will attract half the bettors to select one team and half the bettors to select the other team. If this occurs then the money lost by the bookies is covered by the money won by the bookies and they simply get rich off the "interest" charged for placing the bet. The line is designed to not make it a gamble for the bookie at all. Early in the season before the reality of the new season is more settled and the actual quality of the teams becomes more influential in attracting or discouraging betting choices, it takes a line heavily influenced by the conventional eisdom set by the performance of last year's team and hype from articles amd sports shows like Mike and the Mad Dog which predicted a Miami SB appearance skews the line to advantage the Fins oponents in order to get the action to play out rqually. Particularly early in the season you get outrageous betting lines like the one that gave the Bills 8 points against NE for an easy betting win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
udonkey Posted September 12, 2006 Share Posted September 12, 2006 Remember that the relationship between the quality of the teams and the line is not the primary driver here. The goal of the betting line is to set a figure which will attract half the bettors to select one team and half the bettors to select the other team. If this occurs then the money lost by the bookies is covered by the money won by the bookies and they simply get rich off the "interest" charged for placing the bet. The line is designed to not make it a gamble for the bookie at all. Early in the season before the reality of the new season is more settled and the actual quality of the teams becomes more influential in attracting or discouraging betting choices, it takes a line heavily influenced by the conventional eisdom set by the performance of last year's team and hype from articles amd sports shows like Mike and the Mad Dog which predicted a Miami SB appearance skews the line to advantage the Fins oponents in order to get the action to play out rqually. Particularly early in the season you get outrageous betting lines like the one that gave the Bills 8 points against NE for an easy betting win. 770954[/snapback] Now there's a logical way to look at it...I'll accept your theory over "conspiracies" any day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted September 12, 2006 Author Share Posted September 12, 2006 Early in the season before the reality of the new season is more settled and the actual quality of the teams becomes more influential in attracting or discouraging betting choices, it takes a line heavily influenced by the conventional eisdom set by the performance of last year's team and hype from articles amd sports shows like Mike and the Mad Dog which predicted a Miami SB appearance skews the line to advantage the Fins oponents in order to get the action to play out rqually. Particularly early in the season you get outrageous betting lines like the one that gave the Bills 8 points against NE for an easy betting win. 770954[/snapback] Isn't this basically what I said...only in about 200 fewer words? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike formerly from Florida Posted September 12, 2006 Share Posted September 12, 2006 Now there's a logical way to look at it...I'll accept your theory over "conspiracies" any day! 770965[/snapback] One has nothing to do with the other. But, we have the right to believe in whatever we like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
udonkey Posted September 12, 2006 Share Posted September 12, 2006 One has nothing to do with the other. But, we have the right to believe in whatever we like. 771108[/snapback] You're right...one is derived from logic, the other is derived from a whiney mentality that the world is against us....nothing to do with one another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Brady Posted September 13, 2006 Share Posted September 13, 2006 Particularly early in the season you get outrageous betting lines like the one that gave the Bills 8 points against NE for an easy betting win. 770954[/snapback] Stop cutting the Bills short, that was the opening line. The game went off as the Bills +10!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordio Posted September 13, 2006 Share Posted September 13, 2006 Tsk Tsk Tsk...you guys are overlooking the most important element..the conspiracy element. You think the league is going to allow the Dolphins to go 0-2.Watch the refs do their little dance on the Bills' heads again this week. You Bills fans have to start dealing with reality...the script has already been written. We have NO chance Sunday. That's why I won't be watching. 770836[/snapback] As much as this is pessimistic, I almost have to agree. I think the bills are a better team, however they have 3 things going against them sunday, the dolphins, home field advantage & the refs. Noway does the league want the phins & Nick Saban be 0-2. The refs were a disgrace on sunday. Im not one to blame the refs usually but the lack of holding calls when I could see it right on my tv screen was disgusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dib Posted September 13, 2006 Share Posted September 13, 2006 Watch Saban if he challenges, he was ragged on all week for throwing the flag like a girl in Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Senator Posted September 13, 2006 Share Posted September 13, 2006 Bills - 27 Miami - 0 Bet the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted September 13, 2006 Share Posted September 13, 2006 The goal of the betting line is to set a figure which will attract half the bettors to select one team and half the bettors to select the other team. 770954[/snapback] That's actually only true some of the time, and in truth, a small minority of the time. The betting action on any particular line is rarely ever 50/50 or even close to it if you check the percentages. It's an enormous task to get a 50/50 split because the public is always going to favor the favorite, particularly when it's "good" team vs "bad" team. They place their bets with images of a blowout dancing through their heads that would give them an easy cashout without considering the possibiliity of the underdog hanging in there with the favorite. So, in Week 1, even at New England -8 or -9 against the Bills, trust me, the vast majority of the bets were flowing in on New England. The goal of the betting line isn't really to create a 50/50 split but to create value for the bookies. Case in point, the line for the Denver-St. Louis game last week held steady all week at Denver -3.5. Do you really think the public was split 50/50 on that game? No way! Vegas could've set the line at Denver -6.5 and still have gotten most of the action on Denver. The reason they kept it at -3.5 was to actually ENCOURAGE more one-sided betting on the Broncos. Vegas knew, and we now know, in hindsight, that the Rams had a better than 50/50 chance of winning that game. They made some good free agent pickups and have really improved under the new coaching staff of Linehan and Haslett. Thus, by encouraging lopsided action on the Broncos, Vegas was creating value for itself. They could care less about the vig and a 50/50 split when they know they have, say, a 70% chance of winning 90% of the money. And that's what happened with the Denver-StL game. About 90% of the money was on Denver either in the form of straight up bets, teasers, or parlays; meanwhile, Vegas was sitting their enjoying their knowledge that they had a tremendous chance to count that 90% towards their earnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HopsGuy Posted September 13, 2006 Share Posted September 13, 2006 That's actually only true some of the time, and in truth, a small minority of the time. The betting action on any particular line is rarely ever 50/50 or even close to it if you check the percentages. It's an enormous task to get a 50/50 split because the public is always going to favor the favorite, particularly when it's "good" team vs "bad" team. They place their bets with images of a blowout dancing through their heads that would give them an easy cashout without considering the possibiliity of the underdog hanging in there with the favorite. So, in Week 1, even at New England -8 or -9 against the Bills, trust me, the vast majority of the bets were flowing in on New England. The goal of the betting line isn't really to create a 50/50 split but to create value for the bookies. Case in point, the line for the Denver-St. Louis game last week held steady all week at Denver -3.5. Do you really think the public was split 50/50 on that game? No way! Vegas could've set the line at Denver -6.5 and still have gotten most of the action on Denver. The reason they kept it at -3.5 was to actually ENCOURAGE more one-sided betting on the Broncos. Vegas knew, and we now know, in hindsight, that the Rams had a better than 50/50 chance of winning that game. They made some good free agent pickups and have really improved under the new coaching staff of Linehan and Haslett. Thus, by encouraging lopsided action on the Broncos, Vegas was creating value for itself. They could care less about the vig and a 50/50 split when they know they have, say, a 70% chance of winning 90% of the money. And that's what happened with the Denver-StL game. About 90% of the money was on Denver either in the form of straight up bets, teasers, or parlays; meanwhile, Vegas was sitting their enjoying their knowledge that they had a tremendous chance to count that 90% towards their earnings. 771463[/snapback] That's a nice theory, but its completely wrong. Nothing personal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts