4th and one call

[Bill from NYC]

Yes, making the field goal would have given us a better chance to win the game than not converting the 4th down. 

 

The Pats were in field goal range at the end, so strictly speaking, we would have lost unless we block the kick.  You play to win the game.

768777[/snapback]

 

It was a bad call KTD. I hated it (before the play), but I also hated the long field goal attempt.

This game was not lost by Jauron imo.

[JDG]

That's the thing I guess. It's a difficult choice with a lot of factors both ways. I agreed with the decision. But I surely understand the other side of the argument. And this isn't a right or wrong question. You don't always do one thing or always do the other. There are likely just as many coaches that would go for it as would go for the FG.

 

IMO, more would go for it, if they were coaching the Bills, in this game, with these two teams, at that particular time in this particular game.

768771[/snapback]

 

You mention the way the game was going at that point, but the way the game was going at that point was that the Patriots had just been rsoundedly booed into the locker room at halftime, and then the Bills had taken the ball to start the half and marched right down the field. The Bills had the Patriots on the ropes, and they did the only thing that could have put the Patriots and the fans back into the game... In *this* situation its a no-brainer, you're up by 10 points, don't do anything *stupid* that lets them back in it... To essentially take 3 points off the board for a shot at four more, but with so much momentum risk at stake, is just simply a bad bet.

 

JDG

[JDG]

It was a bad call KTD. I hated it (before the play), but I also hated the long field goal attempt.

This game was not lost by Jauron imo.

768781[/snapback]

 

Lindell has been hitting from 50+ for a year now, and we had the benefit of a good wind. In that situation, the FG was absolutely the right call.

 

JDG

[Kelly the Dog]

You mention the way the game was going at that point, but the way the game was going at that point was that the Patriots had just been rsoundedly booed into the locker room at halftime, and then the Bills had taken the ball to start the half and marched right down the field.  The Bills had the Patriots on the ropes, and they did the only thing that could have put the Patriots and the fans back into the game...    In *this* situation its a no-brainer, you're up by 10 points, don't do anything *stupid* that lets them back in it...    To essentially take 3 points off the board for a shot at four more, but with so much momentum risk at stake, is just simply a bad bet.   

 

JDG

768782[/snapback]

The first part you're right. I was thinking more in retrospect and made a mistake, although it surely was almost inevitable that the Pats would make some kind of a run and get back in the game. And ultimately, it was proven true. I still stand firmly by the prediction that the Pats would have been able to score two TDs in the last 18 minutes if they needed it. And do not at all think that stopping them on 4th down vs. making them kick a FG would have mattered much in the momentum swing. Surely this is all conjecture and it's possible.

 

I still think we should have gone for it at that point, although again it was not a no brainer either way. I fully understand your POV on this one that it may be good to kick the FG here. I don't in any way think that it was "the only thing that could have put the Patriots and their fans back in the game" Far, far, far from it.

[Just Jack]

Where's the option to punt the ball?

[JDG]

And do not at all think that stopping them on 4th down vs. making them kick a FG would have mattered much in the momentum swing. Surely this is all conjecture and it's possible.

 

You mean, stopping us, right?

 

I still think we should have gone for it at that point, although again it was not a no brainer either way. I fully understand your POV on this one that it may be good to kick the FG here. I don't in any way think that it was "the only thing that could have put the Patriots and their fans back in the game" Far, far, far from it.

768818[/snapback]

 

O.k., while it wasn't the only thing - it was clear from the sheer volume of the boos and the CBS shots of fans in the stands that the fans had *turned* on the Patriots at the end of the first half. A great way for the fans to forget all that, though, was to get them involved in supporting the team on a 4th down stop, and get excited about pulling off the 4th down stop.

 

JDG

[Ramius]

I think the right call in THIS case was to go for it. I think the Bills still lose up by 13 with with 9:24 left the way the game was going. I don't think they lose up 17 but there was a lot of time left. (When I typed 9:30 to go, there was 9:30 gone in the 3rd Q)

 

I also, again, do not in any way think this is a no-brainer, which is the impetus for the poll. I think the results will end up pretty even.

768679[/snapback]

 

given the situation, i'd go for it and run the ball 100/100 times.

 

and regardless of what this retard rodeo says, it wasnt willis fault. Hes the new whipping boy. They just showed the replay on ESPN. There was no hole for WM to hit, so he was patient and hit the gap, but by then the pats d-line had blown up our line and someone has willis' legs.

 

But its much easier for the retard mob to shout "Willisbad!"

[Tod Flanders]

It was a great call and anyone who doesn't think so is second guessing, which is easy. At the time it was the most sensible thing to do.

768769[/snapback]

 

It was a horrible call the kind of brain-dead coaching we've had the past 5 years. Patriots scored 19 points, a field goal would've given us 20. We had a chance to take a 13 point lead which meant any other score would have pretty much locked it up for us. Instead we come away with nothing except providing the Patriots with a emotional boost. I'm not second guessing I hated the call the minute they made it.

[Swift Sylvan]

It was a horrible call the kind of brain-dead coaching we've had the past 5 years.  Patriots scored 19 points, a field goal would've given us 20.  We had a chance to take a 13 point lead which meant any other score would have pretty much locked it up for us.  Instead we come away with nothing except providing the Patriots with a emotional boost.  I'm not second guessing I hated the call the minute they made it.

769066[/snapback]

 

If you want to see any response to why the 13 points possibly didn't make a difference feel free to view any game thread where those of us who would have gone for it, have explained our reasoning over and over.

[SactoBillFan]

Not making it changed the momentum of the game. There are times to be conservative.

[shibuya]

I was against this call. We we're stopping the Patriots with our D take the points and hold on. Especially since we have the talent to cause a turnover, by pressing the Patriots somemore with another score we could have forced them to throw a little more and the Bills were doing well here.

[JDG]

If you want to see any response to why the 13 points possibly didn't make a difference feel free to view any game thread where those of us who would have gone for it, have explained our reasoning over and over.

769067[/snapback]

 

With the benefit of hindsight, even if you somehow argue that the change in momentum didn't affect a single thing about the rest of the game, we now know that that field goal would have given us the lead at the end of the game. The Patriots, down by 1, would have kicked a field goal on 4th down, giving us the ball back at the end of the game with a chance to win.

 

The problem here is that people are totally underrating the importance of three points. Field goals don't just win games on the final play - just ask the St. Louis Rams.

 

JDG

[wnyguy]

Remember this was the opening drive of the second half. We moved the ball well all through the first half and drove right down the field on this drive. You take the points there and NE has got to start thinking that they can't slow our offense down. I say take the points in that situation every time.

[rockpile]

My head voted "go for the three".

 

My heart said go for the first down.

[BuffaloWings]

With the benefit of hindsight, even if you somehow argue that the change in momentum didn't affect a single thing about the rest of the game, we now know that that field goal would have given us the lead at the end of the game.  The Patriots, down by 1, would have kicked a field goal on 4th down, giving us the ball back at the end of the game with a chance to win.

769122[/snapback]

But we can't look at it this way, since hindsight and retrospect go out the window. If the Bills kick the field goal, the game is likely to be played differently than how it really was played out.

 

I probably would have called for the FG, as my nature is to be conservative. But with a 10-point lead and the Bills *in control of the game*, my thinking is that DJ went for it to see what type of guts he had with the offense. This is part of him being a "players coach" - give them the confidence that they can make a 4th & 1 inside the opponents 10. I wouldn't be surprised if he did this again...though maybe not next week.

[MichFan]

Right call. Wrong personnel.

[dave mcbride]

The first part you're right. I was thinking more in retrospect and made a mistake, although it surely was almost inevitable that the Pats would make some kind of a run and get back in the game. And ultimately, it was proven true. I still stand firmly by the prediction that the Pats would have been able to score two TDs in the last 18 minutes if they needed it. And do not at all think that stopping them on 4th down vs. making them kick a FG would have mattered much in the momentum swing. Surely this is all conjecture and it's possible.

 

I still think we should have gone for it at that point, although again it was not a no brainer either way. I fully understand your POV on this one that it may be good to kick the FG here. I don't in any way think that it was "the only thing that could have put the Patriots and their fans back in the game" Far, far, far from it.

768818[/snapback]

i've rethought it a bit, and now think that the problem was that the bills made the wrong call. from my many years of watching such plays, it's at best a 50/50 proposition for the starting RB to convert a 4th and 1. however, the qb sneak appears to work at least 80% of the time. i'm a huge fan of the sneak in a really short yardage situation, and if they had made that call, i would have supported it even if they failed.

[dave mcbride]

With the benefit of hindsight, even if you somehow argue that the change in momentum didn't affect a single thing about the rest of the game, we now know that that field goal would have given us the lead at the end of the game.  The Patriots, down by 1, would have kicked a field goal on 4th down, giving us the ball back at the end of the game with a chance to win.

 

The problem here is that people are totally underrating the importance of three points.    Field goals don't just win games on the final play - just ask the St. Louis Rams.

 

JDG

769122[/snapback]

they would have been down by three most likely, because the bills most likely woudn't have taken a safety if they had a lead.

[SF Bills Fan]

At first I was not happy with the call, but now I think it was the right thing. We get that and get a TD and Juaron is hailed as a genius.

[hootie1]

Some economist analyzed 3 years of NFL play to determine the stat below:

 

 

" Romer's research reveals that teams going for it on fourth-and-short situations near the goal line are successful only 43 percent of the time — not exactly overwhelming evidence that coaches are making the wrong call."

 

Particularly telling is Cowher's reaction to this statistic.

 

“Three out of seven from fourth-and-1 or fourth-and-2 at the goal line?” Cowher said. “I don't look at those as very good odds. Momentum plays a very big part in football and when you fail in those situations ... you may put your team in a hole they can't overcome.”