Coach Tuesday Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Sorry, if you're looking for a "rah rah" thread, go elsewhere. While I think the Bills will be more fun to root for this season, I seriously doubt they'll win more than 4-6 games. And I think one of the biggest culprits will be third down defense. They've switched to the cover-2, meaning less blitzing and more reliance on passrush by the front four, especially on passing downs. They don't have an elite passrusher, and their tackles aren't likely to consistently put pressure up the middle. As good as the corners are, they can't cover for more than a few seconds (no corner can). The result should look a lot like the Colts D before they drafted Freeney - not a pretty sight. I'm seriously concerned that the Bills D will have a ton of difficulty getting off the field, and it could get ugly fast this Sunday. The Pats and Brady are a good (difficult) first test. They excel at third-down offense and exploiting soft zones, and have unveiled a nasty two TE set this preseason that will give the Bills' young strong safeties (Wire and Whitner) fits. Next year's shopping list has a passrusher at the top. Anyway, in a sense, Fairchild's offense may be the perfect complement. If you don't get your offense on the field much because your third down D is weak, you'd better be able to hit the big play to score quickly. Sorry for the rambling, feel free to blast me or add your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ1 Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Sorry, if you're looking for a "rah rah" thread, go elsewhere. While I think the Bills will be more fun to root for this season, I seriously doubt they'll win more than 4-6 games. And I think one of the biggest culprits will be third down defense. They've switched to the cover-2, meaning less blitzing and more reliance on passrush by the front four, especially on passing downs. They don't have an elite passrusher, and their tackles aren't likely to consistently put pressure up the middle. As good as the corners are, they can't cover for more than a few seconds (no corner can). The result should look a lot like the Colts D before they drafted Freeney - not a pretty sight. I'm seriously concerned that the Bills D will have a ton of difficulty getting off the field, and it could get ugly fast this Sunday. The Pats and Brady are a good (difficult) first test. They excel at third-down offense and exploiting soft zones, and have unveiled a nasty two TE set this preseason that will give the Bills' young strong safeties (Wire and Whitner) fits. Next year's shopping list has a passrusher at the top. Anyway, in a sense, Fairchild's offense may be the perfect complement. If you don't get your offense on the field much because your third down D is weak, you'd better be able to hit the big play to score quickly. Sorry for the rambling, feel free to blast me or add your thoughts. 763517[/snapback] No top receivers for the Pats and we're going to play a soft zone? Maybe we aren't going to do as advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JStranger76 Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Actually this is exactly what I have been saying. This team won't get enough pressure without blitzing. Top pass rusher with the next few picks young and promising Olinemen on my 07 draft wishlist. Hopefully our supposed disrupting DTs develope very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 I just don't think the Bills' coaching staff is stupid enough to play into the Patriots' hands. That doesn't mean we'll stuff them -- I still need to see it to believe it -- but it also doesn't mean we'll hand them exactly what they're looking for. I also somewhat dispute your claim that the Bills don't have an "elite" pass rusher. Schobel has certainly proven himself over the past three seasons to be an above average pass rusher -- on the cusp of Pro Bowl status. In summary, I'm far from bold enough to predict a Buffalo win, but I believe this game will be in doubt far longer than most "experts" would suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 I think this is a stronger Bills team, and a weaker Patriots team, than what the Bills saw last year, when they lost 16-21 in Foxboro. I think the Bills will have a HUGE advantage on ST's, and the offense can air it out against the Patriots' secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ1 Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 I just don't think the Bills' coaching staff is stupid enough to play into the Patriots' hands. That doesn't mean we'll stuff them -- I still need to see it to believe it -- but it also doesn't mean we'll hand them exactly what they're looking for. I also somewhat dispute your claim that the Bills don't have an "elite" pass rusher. Schobel has certainly proven himself over the past three seasons to be an above average pass rusher -- on the cusp of Pro Bowl status. In summary, I'm far from bold enough to predict a Buffalo win, but I believe this game will be in doubt far longer than most "experts" would suggest. 763533[/snapback] This a classic setting for an upset. The national media, the Pats' fans, the oddsmakers and even a large percentage Bills' fans have all conceded a Patriot victory long before the game is played because everyone has decided on the basis of last year's record. First games of the season are precisely where over-confidant teams lose most often. The only things going for the Pats are BB and I hate to admit it, Brady. I hope it's not enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I 90 Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 This a classic setting for an upset. 763548[/snapback] Count me in. Elsewhere 'twas Tuesday that had the over under for Pats punts as 2 . How about the over under on Pats field goals ? If it's around 4, it might not be such a grim day. Bend but don't break. Score. I've seen crazier things happen. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arkady Renko Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 The problem with the defense was the blitzing. The scheme and Gray just were too blitz happy... that's how you get a bad 3rd Down Conversion rate. Anything is better than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Schulman16 Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 you are generally right when it comes to the 3rd and 4 type of situations. But they should prevent the big play on 3rd and longs. The problem will be forcing the third downs. Teams might be able to dink and dunk pretty easily if they make the right reads. We will be a bend but don't break defesne.. The colts D before Freeney also had bad personell all the way around. They had a couple decent guys in the secondary but not the kind of talent we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDH Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 The only things going for the Pats are BB and I hate to admit it, Brady. I hope it's not enough. 763548[/snapback] They also have very good O and D lines, which is where games tend to be won. The rest of the team is suspect, but I'd rather be good on the lines and suspect everywhere else than vise versa (which is sort of where the Bills are). As for the original post I don't think the Bills are going to sit there and rush four all game long if they're not getting preasure doing so. They they can't get preasure with four they'll start to bring more. The only way to stop any good QB is to preasure them consistantly and I'm sure the Bills will do whatever it takes to do this (let's hope it doesn't take Gray's, "let's blitz every down" gameplan to accomplish this). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Sorry, if you're looking for a "rah rah" thread, go elsewhere. While I think the Bills will be more fun to root for this season, I seriously doubt they'll win more than 4-6 games. And I think one of the biggest culprits will be third down defense. They've switched to the cover-2, meaning less blitzing and more reliance on passrush by the front four, especially on passing downs. They don't have an elite passrusher, and their tackles aren't likely to consistently put pressure up the middle. As good as the corners are, they can't cover for more than a few seconds (no corner can). The result should look a lot like the Colts D before they drafted Freeney - not a pretty sight. I'm seriously concerned that the Bills D will have a ton of difficulty getting off the field, and it could get ugly fast this Sunday. The Pats and Brady are a good (difficult) first test. They excel at third-down offense and exploiting soft zones, and have unveiled a nasty two TE set this preseason that will give the Bills' young strong safeties (Wire and Whitner) fits. Next year's shopping list has a passrusher at the top. Anyway, in a sense, Fairchild's offense may be the perfect complement. If you don't get your offense on the field much because your third down D is weak, you'd better be able to hit the big play to score quickly. Sorry for the rambling, feel free to blast me or add your thoughts. 763517[/snapback] Fair points. However, there are a couple of points that are questionable. Freeney was drafted in 2002. That was also Tony Dungy's first season in Indy. While you can't deny the impact of Freeney, there is little doubt based on Dungy's past history that he would have improved the defense without Freeney. Two, the cover 2 is the base defense. That doesn't mean you can't play or other coverages in the defense. There are also zone blitzes that can be used as well. There are numerous of ways to get ways on the QB than the traditional lb blitz. For example, Ronde Barber once had 5.5 sacks one season in a cover 2. So hopefully, the Bills coaches have been very vanilla in the preseason and we will see Clements coming off the corner or some more man press coverage in the future. But I agree that the Pats two TE will be a huge challenge. Watson is the real deal and it will be interesting to see how we matchup. Time will tell. And I definitely agree about another passrusher being a #1 priority. I think Nate is a great player who is one of the best playmakers on defense that the Bills will ever have. But a cover 2 corner is very easy to find and Clements' money can used to be addressed our passrushing needs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crap Throwing Monkey Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Sorry, if you're looking for a "rah rah" thread, go elsewhere. While I think the Bills will be more fun to root for this season, I seriously doubt they'll win more than 4-6 games. And I think one of the biggest culprits will be third down defense. They've switched to the cover-2, meaning less blitzing and more reliance on passrush by the front four, especially on passing downs. They don't have an elite passrusher, and their tackles aren't likely to consistently put pressure up the middle. As good as the corners are, they can't cover for more than a few seconds (no corner can). The result should look a lot like the Colts D before they drafted Freeney - not a pretty sight. I'm seriously concerned that the Bills D will have a ton of difficulty getting off the field, and it could get ugly fast this Sunday. The Pats and Brady are a good (difficult) first test. They excel at third-down offense and exploiting soft zones, and have unveiled a nasty two TE set this preseason that will give the Bills' young strong safeties (Wire and Whitner) fits. Next year's shopping list has a passrusher at the top. Anyway, in a sense, Fairchild's offense may be the perfect complement. If you don't get your offense on the field much because your third down D is weak, you'd better be able to hit the big play to score quickly. Sorry for the rambling, feel free to blast me or add your thoughts. 763517[/snapback] Sounds like you're saying the Bills are really going to suck covering third-and-long this year. For the 15th year in a row... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckincincy Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 They've switched to the cover-2, meaning less blitzing and more reliance on passrush by the front four, especially on passing downs. They don't have an elite passrusher, and their tackles aren't likely to consistently put pressure up the middle. 763517[/snapback] Coach T, I don't get to see many Bills games. But in the PS tilt against cincy, I thought Triplett and Williams did a decent job against a strong interior line. Some good vet play by qb Wright avoided a couple of sacks. That happens all the time - good effort by both parties. I see that there is some concern about a "lightweight" bunch of DL's. A wide-body with the talents of a Teddy Washington is nice to have (and he is a very talented player - there are any number of 360 lb. folks that have the weight but lack the smarts). 300 lb. DTs with an eye towards angles and anticipation and with active arms can serve well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 This is one game we may be able to get away with it. While Brady is one or two in the league at just dropping back, looking, and firing accurately, the Pats are suffering at WR. The keys to this game, to me, are Clements, McGee and the zone defenders against Watson. If our corners can have decent games against Troy Brown and Doug Gabriel, which they should, we won't need to blitz. If we can cheat the safeties to take away Watson, even Brady won't have it all that easy to beat us too badly in the passing game. The Pats should be able to run on us pretty well, and they will score some points. But I don't think we want to blitz much at all. Brady is too good at stepping up in the pocket, and with one or two guys less in the secondary we could get killed. Without WRs that are in tune with Brady, this is a game we could steal. It's better to play them now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nervous Guy Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 The problem with the defense was the blitzing. The scheme and Gray just were too blitz happy... that's how you get a bad 3rd Down Conversion rate. Anything is better than last year. 763587[/snapback] bingo...they didn't even get there with the blitzing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hollywood Donahoe Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 I think this is a stronger Bills team, and a weaker Patriots team, than what the Bills saw last year, when they lost 16-21 in Foxboro. You're skipping a game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Long Beach Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Good coaching (which the Patties have) also gets better over the season. Good coaching adapts, exploits strengths, hides its weaknesses as they are uncovered throughout the season. Something I've watched BB do well. But good choaching over the season has little effect on the FIRST game. BB has a LOSING record for the first game of the season. Granted it's 5-6. But a losing record nonetheless. In startling contrast to the rest of his games. Hopefully we can expose and exploit the Patsies weaknesses (such as pathetic wide-outs) in this first game. We have a legitimate underdog shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I 90 Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 BB has a LOSING record for the first game of the season. Granted it's 5-6. But a losing record nonetheless. In startling contrast to the rest of his games. 764024[/snapback] Interesting. Like Larry Brown putting his bball teams in a position to struggle so as to get their attention. My wishful thinking file is filling up fast. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macaroni Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Say what you will about the pass rush ....... but until the Bills DBs start playing closer than 10 yards off of a reciever, all the pass rush in the world isn't going to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeSpeed Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Say what you will about the pass rush ....... but until the Bills DBs start playing closer than 10 yards off of a reciever, all the pass rush in the world isn't going to help. 764337[/snapback] I totally agree! I'm so tired of not even seeing a DB on my TV screen before the snap. If I was playing us I'd be running quick slants all day long. Of coarse that was last year. Here's hoping that this year will be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts