How do folks see our opponents?

[Pyrite Gal]

The key to every game is not simply a question of how good are we (I think hopeful bit with real doubts is about the best we can do based on general views on TSW) but how good or troubled are our opponents going to be.

 

One way to think about this is to divide our opponents into thrids. Like it or not, our opponents can be divided up into those we consider the toughest third, the middle third and the weakest third. There will clearly be disgreement over how strong that upper group is and how weak the lower third is, but we might be able to see some consensus on how these teams rank in relation to each other.

 

This is my cut:

 

 

Sept. 10 @ New England - I had figured that after a lengthy run at being the best this team would be going down, but now with huge WR issues and LB issues, this team may be imploding.

 

Sept. 17 @ Miami - Perhaps the greatest uncertainty I see about how good/bad they will be. Coming off of a major winning streak at the end of last season and with a new (but failed in his last gig) QB this team may be an up and comer (Mike and Mike have them going to the SB. However, this was the same team we obliterated in the 1st quarter of a game we should have won last year and they do not scare me at all.

 

Sept. 24 NY Jets - There seems to be a growing consensus that this may be the worst team we face and given their RB troubles, lukewarm endorsement of Pennington, young OL at least a year if not two away and huge RB issues such doubts are not uinreasonable.

 

Oct. 1 Minnesota - Seemed to have moved beyond their party boat days with a change in leadership but unclear.

 

Oct. 8 @ Chicago - These guys were major winners in terms of Ws last year and remain so until proven otherwise. Yet, they may be the same great D and zero O team this year so they may prove otherwise.

 

Oct. 15 @ Detroit Those who complain about the Bills drafting badly should thank the stars they do not live in Detroit where Matt millen's team seems to be on the verge of giving up on both of the WRs they drafted in the 1st round and add to that they have already declared the player they took just before we erred on MW a bust.

 

Oct. 22 New England - This time we get this team we almost beat in NE in our house.

 

Nov. 5 Green Bay -Folks are credibly wondering not only whether Favre made a mistake in judging this a good enough team to come back forbut whether Favre may have hung on a year too long.

 

Nov. 12 @ Indianapolis - Given their team make-up and playing them in their place I think this is likely the game we will lose. Yet, given the problems of their back-up QB and an O built around the singular talents of their starting QB injuries may tell the tale for this team.

 

Nov. 19 @ Houston The worse team in the NFL last year and like Chicago they will remain such until they prove otherwise.

 

Nov. 26 Jacksonville - a team which continually fallen just short of the playoffs the last few years who may well punch through this year but fortunately the game will be in our house.

 

Dec. 3 San Diego Likewise playing in our house may be key as SD wil be comimg cross country for this December game. A near playoff team last year, but we will see whether Rivers is more like RoboQB or like JP. What will likely determine this is whether SD is more like Pitts or Buff were for these young QBs.

 

Dec. 10 @ NY Jets See above

 

Dec. 17 Miami See above, but the tradition of the Miami late season swoon (except for last year so we will see) and having them come to our house means I think we not only hope but expect to squish the Fish.

 

Dec. 24 Tennessee The signing of Kerry Collins and appearance that he will be their likely starter now indicates this team is not a likely juggernaut.

 

Dec. 31 @ Baltimore - It now appears they will be one of our tougher opponents.

 

 

So in the big picture, I actually found it difficult to divide our opponents into thirds of upper opponents, middle tier of our opponents, and a final group a lower tier. Most of them have some serious question marks even if one assumes they are relatively healthy. I would say a division of our opponent into upper and lower would be:

 

Upper:

 

Indy

Chicago

Jax

SD

Balt

NE

NE

MIN

 

Lower:

 

NYJ

NYJ

MI

MI

Det

TN

Hou

GB

 

I'm curious is folks would make this same cut weighing their relative strengths against each other (again, this is not making an assumption of how bad we are gonna suck or rebuilding and only assesses how tough the games will be based on whether we are home or not and a little of the weather factor.

 

In fact, I think the good news for us here is regardless of where one feels we are few of our opponents are dead lock or even fairly certain to post a winning record when the season is over. Among the lower level opponents we will face, MI is the only one who I think stands even a remote chance of being an adequate team this year.

 

Among the upper level of teams we face, I am wondering wether MI turning out to be a problem may not be balanced by the lose of Weis and Crennel along with the typical demolition of an SB winner may not be more than even Boy Genius BB, young star Brady and the hopes of Mulroney to reverse.

 

I know folks are fearful about our potential, but looking at our opponents I think has to give someone a bit of hope or why are folks so certain that teams I think our in our lower level of opponents gonna be good?

[Doza]

Sept. 10 @ New England - I had figured that after a lengthy run at being the best this team would be going down, but now with huge WR issues and LB issues, this team may be imploding.

 

Are you serious? Imploding? Just because one WR is holding out? It's a position that's always had no names, why will it be a problem now?

 

This thread is hardly objective, and frankly its very frightening that none of you really know much about the teams in your own division.

[stuckincincy]

I know folks are fearful about our potential, but looking at our opponents I think has to give someone a bit of hope or why are folks so certain that teams I think our in our lower level of opponents gonna be good?

756094[/snapback]

 

Your break-down looks good to me. I do think NE will remain quite competitive. I've yet to form an opinion about MIA. As for the Jets - they seem in tough straits. But Penny has his moments...

[JDG]

I think the only hope that the Bills have Week 1 is New England's history of opening-day stinkers, with maybe the Deion Branch situation becoming a distraction. All other signs - i.e. the Bills installing new systems on offense and defense, the Bills' overall talent advantage, and NE's homefield advantage point to a New England romp.

 

I think New England is going to be very good this year. Moreover, the AFC East is benefitting from a very favorable schedule this year, playing the NFC North, which may be the worst division in football, and the AFC South and East, which are appear to be the two weakest sides in the AFC. Thus, New England is going to be very good, and they are going to look even better that with their schedule. I see them with a shot at 13-15 wins, whereas if they had, say, Baltimore's schedule, I'd say that 10-11 wins would be more realistic.

 

The question is whether or not the Bills can take advantage of their schedule. I think that the Bills need to get to at least 3-5, or better yet, 4-4 by mid-season. Presuming the Indy game to be a loss in Week 9, that would have us at 3-6 or 4-5. The second-half stretch is eminently winnablle, however, with four home games and road games at Baltimore and sad-sack Houston and the NY Jets. If the Bills are able to improve over the first half of the season, we might be able to go 6-1 in that stretch, which could get us to 9 or 10 wins.

 

Here's how I see our opponents:

 

Upper:

Indianapolis

New England (2)

 

Middle:

Chicago - Can the defense carry this team again?

San Diego - How good is Philip Rivers really?

Jacksonville - How is life without Jimmy Smith?

@Miami - Completely overhyped based on beating weak teams last year.

 

Lower:

vs. Miami

Baltimore - Should be a contender, but what will New Year's Eve be like?

Tennessee - Hard to know what to make of this team.

Detroit - Improved coaching and no Harrington could make it better.

NY Jets (2) - Mangini will try to keep them competitive.

Green Bay - Favre looked like he didn't have it last week, and who else is there?

Minnesota - This team looks like an implosion.

Houston - Domanick Davis out, no offensive line, Mario Williams doing nothing so far.

 

JDG

[Pyrite Gal]

Are you serious?  Imploding?  Just because one WR is holding out?  It's a position that's always had no names, why will it be a problem now? 

 

This thread is hardly objective, and frankly its very frightening that none of you really know much about the teams in your own division.

756097[/snapback]

 

 

No claims from me to being objective regarding the Bills, but yes I am serious regarding my sense of NE.

 

I judge them to be in the upper half of teams we face (do you agree?) however, I think that though I had written our first game off as a definite loss when the schedule came out I am not so certain as I was before. The reasons for this are:

 

1. I have been reminded that our last game in NE was much closer than I immediately remembered. NE did not so much beat the Bills in their house as historically and completely they had done in recent years. It really was a game (in which the media amusingly tried to present as primarily a chapter in the Tedy Brueschi story but the reality of the game showed it to be a nice job by him storybook from a medical perspective but only so-so in terms of game output by him). The key factor in this game was KH failing to do the job rather than NE standing on the Bills throat.

 

2. I specifically said that the WR situation and the Branch controversy were not the only issues. In fact, Bills fans are probably made most hopeful by the LB issues as evidenced by the Brueschi situation and the retrieval of Seau rom he retirement pile. As I said in the post, NE is likely in the upper half of our opponents, but the Seau signing and the FA departure of McGinest means that you well may be whistling in the dark if your assumption is that this is the same NE team who will reach the same lofty levels as they have the past two years.

 

3. I did not mention the impacts of the loss of Weis an Crennel until the second game post but likewise this is another reason to wonder what type of rejiggering is going on in beantown.

 

4. As far as Branch goes, rather than historic weakness at WR being s trait of the Pats as you observe I felt like it was the other way around with the passing game where the DBs needed the help of a player like Branch to reinforce them. The Branch issues are significant not simply because of his not getting the practice or being there for the initial game, but the team is already going to be without 2005 #2 WR Givens. I think this is a question, don't you.

 

In the end, the Pats are the class of the division until another team takes it away from them, all i am saying is that the chances appear that what more likely will be the case is that this will ultimately occur this year not because the rest of the division takes it away but IF it does occur this year it will be because the Pats give it away. Such breakdowns appear to be the norm among SB winners (the Pats themselves failed to even make the playoffs in 2002 after their first SB win. if they fail to make the playoffs again that to me would be an implosion. Even though I think it is likely do you think it is a dead lock certainty they will make it this year? Recent events say it is likely but not certain in this league.

[Doza]

1. I have been reminded that our last game in NE was much closer than I immediately remembered.  NE did not so much beat the Bills in their house as historically and completely they had done in recent years.  It really was a game (in which the media amusingly tried to present as primarily a chapter in the Tedy Brueschi story but the reality of the game showed it to be a nice job by him storybook from a medical perspective but only so-so in terms of game output by him).  The key factor in this game was KH failing to do the job rather than NE standing on the Bills throat.

There have been quite a few close games between these two teams with the notable exception of 2003. The Bills have yet to show that they can pull out any of these "close" games. And while the Bills may have gotten better, so did the Pats. I think this board forgets all the injuries the Pats had last year and the fact they may have two of the best lines in the AFC.

 

2. I specifically said that the WR situation and the Branch controversy were not the only issues.  In fact, Bills fans are probably made most hopeful by the LB issues as evidenced by the Brueschi situation and the retrieval of Seau rom he retirement pile.  As I said in the post, NE is likely in the upper half of our opponents, but the Seau signing and the FA departure of McGinest means that you well may be whistling in the dark if your assumption is that this is the same NE team who will reach the same lofty levels as they have the past two years.

As I mentioned before the LB siuation is well in hand. We have Banta-Cain ready to step in with Colvin, Vrabel, and Bruschi, and now a vet in Seau to spell the others. McGinest is a loss, but not a big one, he has been on the back 9 for awhile now. We will also be playing a bit more 4-3 this year with the emergency of Warren, Wilfork and Seymour - big 1-2-3 punch and second year player Wright along with Green.

 

3.  I did not mention the impacts of the loss of Weis an Crennel until the second game post but likewise this is another reason to wonder what type of rejiggering is going on in beantown.

That was two years ago, that ship has sailed and the Pats are more than ready (and have dealt with it). Funny how no one here calls Boston "beantown" except tourists.

 

4. As far as Branch goes, rather than historic weakness at WR being s trait of the Pats as you observe I felt like it was the other way around with the passing game where the DBs needed the help of a player like Branch to reinforce them.  The Branch issues are significant not simply because of his not getting the practice or being there for the initial game, but the team is already going to be without 2005 #2 WR Givens.  I think this is a question, don't you.

I've made this point a ton of times, but I could be talking to a pole. The Pats offense does not use WR like other teams. This is a spread offense based on a multitude of options. We haven't had a 1000 yard reciever in 5 years. Another point, good WRs don't make good DBs in camp. I have no clue where you got that from. It's up to the skill of the player and the coaches. Is it an issue? Sure, but not enough to be a negative against all the other areas the team has improved in. I think the addition of Maroney more than makes up for the loss of Givens - strictly talking pluses and minuses.

 

In the end, the Pats are the class of the division until another team takes it away from them, all i am saying is that the chances appear that what more likely will be the case is that this will ultimately occur this year not because the rest of the division takes it away but IF it does occur this year it will be because the Pats give it away.  Such breakdowns appear to be the norm among SB winners (the Pats themselves failed to even make the playoffs in 2002 after their first SB win.  if they fail to make the playoffs again that to me would be an implosion.  Even though I think it is likely do you think it is a dead lock certainty they will make it this year?  Recent events say it is likely but not certain in this league.

756138[/snapback]

 

Pats win 12-14 games this year, and take the division easily. 2002 was a bit different because Pats caught lightning in a bottle in 2001, and weren't actually finished rebuilding. 2002 decline and subsequent great seasons in 2003 and 2004 clearly show this. In final to suggest that the patriots are imploding, its just far off - after one season where they were a few plays from having a home AFC championship game against a team they match up with very well.

[stuckincincy]

There have been quite a few close games...

756237[/snapback]

 

Adam has left the building...

[Doza]

Adam has left the building...

756241[/snapback]

I guess that means its impossible for the Pats to win a game. Guess how many games the Pats won last year on last minute fieldgoals?

 

just 1, in a dome. a 34 yarder. What a toughie.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Nov. 12 @ Indianapolis - Given their team make-up and playing them in their place I think this is likely the game we will lose.

 

Gee...ya think?

 

[stuckincincy]

I guess that means its impossible for the Pats to win a game.  Guess how many games the Pats won last year on last minute fieldgoals? 

 

just 1, in a dome.  a 34 yarder.  What a toughie.

756269[/snapback]

 

Don't take that tone with me, young man.

 

Hop into the Way-Back Machine. Have you no concept of history?

Edited August 30, 2006 by stuckincincy

[Pyrite Gal]

There have been quite a few close games between these two teams with the notable exception of 2003.  The Bills have yet to show that they can pull out any of these "close" games.  And while the Bills may have gotten better, so did the Pats.  I think this board forgets all the injuries the Pats had last year and the fact  they may have two of the best lines in the AFC.

As I mentioned before the LB siuation is well in hand.  We have Banta-Cain ready to step in with Colvin, Vrabel, and Bruschi, and now a vet in Seau to spell the others.  McGinest is a loss, but not a big one, he has been on the back 9 for awhile now.  We will also be playing a bit more 4-3 this year with the emergency of Warren, Wilfork and Seymour - big 1-2-3 punch and second year player Wright along with Green.

That was two years ago, that ship has sailed and the Pats are more than ready (and have dealt with it).  Funny how no one here calls Boston "beantown" except tourists.

I've made this point a ton of times, but I could be talking to a pole.  The Pats offense does not use WR like other teams.  This is a spread offense based on a multitude of options.  We haven't had a 1000 yard reciever in 5 years.  Another point, good WRs don't make good DBs in camp.  I have no clue where you got that from.  It's up to the skill of the player and the coaches.  Is it an issue?  Sure, but not enough to be a negative against all the other areas the team has improved in.  I think the addition of Maroney more than makes up for the loss of Givens - strictly talking pluses and minuses.

Pats win 12-14 games this year, and take the division easily.  2002 was a bit different because Pats caught lightning in a bottle in 2001, and weren't actually finished rebuilding.  2002 decline and subsequent great seasons in 2003 and 2004 clearly show this.  In final to suggest that the patriots are imploding, its just far off - after one season where they were a few plays from having a home AFC championship game against a team they match up with very well.

756237[/snapback]

 

Your post actually reslly makes me question how well I think the Bills will do this year.

 

It raises questions for me not because of the superior football logic and analysis, but because it strikes me as an example of how a fan can analyze his team through the prism of rose colored glasses.

 

As I said in my orginal post, I clearly do not declare the Pats to be dead or imploding, I simply raise the possibility that they might be.

 

My conclusion is that the Pats are the division champ until somebody proves to be better on the field and nobody has done that yet so they are in the upper half of opponents we face.

 

However, 12 Ws for them would appear to be in the upper range of possible outcomes that they have this year. Folks who use the same rose colored glasses for the Bills have us making the playoffs this year. Every team is undefested right now so I guess if folks are going to be delusional this is the time. I guess I am happy to consider the possibility they may get 12 Ws as long as I also recognize the possibility that they may not even make the playoffs this year.

 

Both outcomes are pretty unlikely but are in the realm of the possible.

[JDG]

However, 12 Ws for them would appear to be in the upper range of possible outcomes that they have this year. 

756284[/snapback]

 

Not with the schedule that they have.

 

Patriots at home: Buffalo, Miami, NY Jets, Chicago, Detroit, Houston, Denver, and Indy

 

The Pats could easily be favored in all those games. Not unreasonable to see them going 7-1 in those, let alone maybe 8-0.

 

Patriots on the road: Buffalo, Miami, NY Jets, Minnesota, Green Bay, Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Cincinnati.

 

The Pats could easily be favored in all those games, with Cincinnati looking like the toughest test. I don't see 6-2 as being unreasable from that group.

 

JDG

[JDG]

I've made this point a ton of times, but I could be talking to a pole.  The Pats offense does not use WR like other teams.  This is a spread offense based on a multitude of options.  We haven't had a 1000 yard reciever in 5 years. 

756237[/snapback]

 

Just keep in mind that just because you write a point 10 times does not mean that any given poster has read your point 10 times. Many of us only read here and there.... I know that you weren't addressing me, but this is the first time I have seen that point.

 

Anyhow, it is not exactly proof of your contention that the Patriots use WR's differently that you haven't had a 1000 yard receiver in 5 years. Deion Branch had 998 yards last year in 15 starts. He clearly was being utilized like a 1,000 yard WR in your offense. David Givens had another 738 yards in only 10 starts and 13 games.

 

Although the Patriots do spread the ball around, I think that you overstate your point. The lack of 1,000 yard WR's probably also has as much to do with the quality of your running game, and the quality of your defense. With one of the best defenses in the League for years, the Patriots have rarely been trying to play catch-up. And of course, a major factor has been injuries - I'm not sure you've had a WR start 16 games in five years either.

 

JDG

[firedawg]

I see Pat's fans have digressed to trying to sell their team on opposing teams message boards.

 

Why don't we let the teams decide who is better on the field. You both bring valid points to the table but who knows the robot could be ill that day or Lossman may throw for 500yds and 5 td's. You just don't know.

[Doza]

Your post actually reslly makes me question how well I think the Bills will do this year.

 

It raises questions for me not because of the superior football logic and analysis, but because it strikes me as an example of how a fan can analyze his team through the prism of rose colored glasses.

 

756284[/snapback]

You may label rose colored or whatever, but for the majority of the past 5 years, its been reality.

 

I can also tell you that the general consensus on other message boards is that the Bills will be fighting with the Jets for one of the worst teams in the league. They could be in for another 5 win season - vegas certainly agrees. Take that for what you will.

[Movinon]

You may label rose colored or whatever, but for the majority of the past 5 years, its been reality.

 

I can also tell you that the general consensus on other message boards is that the Bills will be fighting with the Jets for one of the worst teams in the league.  They could be in for another 5 win season - vegas certainly agrees. Take that for what you will.

756345[/snapback]

And we all know how important the general consensu is

[JDG]

They could be in for another 5 win season - vegas certainly agrees.

756345[/snapback]

 

Actually, Vegas has set our over-under at 6.5.

 

JDG

[MadBuffaloDisease]

The AFC East is weaker than it was last year. The Pats have lost more good players and coaches, the Dolphins are overrated and now have the moron who prevented the Bills from sweeping them last year, and the Jets are the Jets except without Curtis Martin and John Abraham.

 

As for the rest of the schedule, I don't know.