JOSH REED - cut / traded???

[BADOLBILZ]

I've read that Josh has the least drops per throws to him, and personally I want him to be on the field a lot possibly even our #2, but there must be something I'm missing, cause whenever I see him on the field I don't see great plays from him or chunkability, chunkliciousness, etc...

750135[/snapback]

 

I don't care about manipulated stats, Reed drops a lot of passes and doesn't make the tough catches. He is a posession receiver, he needs to catch all of the easy ones and a lot of the tough ones, because he doesn't produce big plays to offset the drops. He sticks because he is the best wr the Bills have at getting open and blocking.

[cantankerous]

Josh Reed made alot of tough grabs last year...maybe you didn't see them?

 

I think this is the year he breaks out a bit...he'll be a great contributor this season...and he knocks defenders on their asses.

[Matt in KC]

I don't care about manipulated stats, Reed drops a lot of passes and doesn't make the tough catches.  He is a posession receiver, he needs to catch all of the easy ones and a lot of the tough ones, because he doesn't produce big plays to offset the drops.  He sticks because he is the best wr the Bills have at getting open and blocking.

750388[/snapback]

Yes, Reed has pissed off several fans with untimely drops since he joined the team. But, last year he was really an asset to the Bills. Of his 32 catches, 21 went for a first down, and a quarter of them were over 20 yards (14 ypc avg overall). Also, I can't remember what site tracks "drops" but he did not have many last year, and earned a lot of his yards with solid runs after the catch. Not bad for a receiver who came into last year "in the doghouse" (with Lindell)....

 

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/302219/gamelogs/2005

 

Short of something like drugs or insubordination, I can't imaingine we'd cut Reed this year.

[crackur]

I don't care about manipulated stats, Reed drops a lot of passes and doesn't make the tough catches.  He is a posession receiver, he needs to catch all of the easy ones and a lot of the tough ones, because he doesn't produce big plays to offset the drops.  He sticks because he is the best wr the Bills have at getting open and blocking.

750388[/snapback]

man are you dumb or just blind? HE HAS THE HIGHEST CATCH PERCENTAGE on the team.......it means that the other wrs drop more than him

 

[The Jokeman]

man are you dumb or just blind? HE HAS THE HIGHEST CATCH PERCENTAGE on the team.......it means that the other wrs drop more than him

 

750457[/snapback]

Actually Moulds' catch percentage last year was 62.8% vs Reed's 60.4%. So you're wrong unless talking about the WRs on this team currently. Numbers courtesy of Snap Stats.com

[djh]

Actually Moulds' catch percentage last year was 62.8% vs Reed's 60.4%. So you're wrong unless talking about the WRs on this team currently. Numbers courtesy of Snap Stats.com

750515[/snapback]

 

You can use percentages and stats any way you want.

Example.....Kelly Holcolmb's comp % is the best in Bills history. The stat doesn't mean squat.

 

Bottom line..... Josh Reed is a #3 WR at best, #2 on a weak team.

[Matt in KC]

Bottom line.....  Josh Reed is a #3 WR at best, #2 on a weak team.

750541[/snapback]

So, are you agreeing we'd be foolish to cut him?

 

Does that mean we have above average WRs if we're considering him our 4th or 5th WR?

[Pyrite Gal]

You can use percentages and stats any way you want.

Example.....Kelly Holcolmb's comp % is the best in Bills history.    The stat doesn't mean squat.   

 

Bottom line.....  Josh Reed is a #3 WR at best, #2 on a weak team.

750541[/snapback]

 

While stats do not mean everything, they are indincative of some things and it would seem to be a gross overstatement to claim they mean squat,

 

I think the little argument regarding Reed here is interesting.

 

Badol claims he drops a significant number of passes and does not produce big yards. From what I have observed watching the Bills over the years and thus Reed, my sense has been he has been so up and down as he generally has been a non-factor as a player to me with his career being:

 

First year- nice start for a rookie who produced well as the #3 WR in a productive O and merited being promoted t0 #2 given his college pedigree and rookie production.

 

Second year- Huge disappointment as he developed a case of the droppsies and clearly did not have the sports will to be more than a bit player at that point.

 

Third year- Showed some signs of escaping the droppsy problem, but never really produced for us big time in his first year under TC/MM and season ended with an injury. After 3 years, I began to draw some conclusions about what I could really expect from a player and the verdict on Reed was not good from this fan's perspective.

 

I simply expect more as from an early 2nd round oick who many called a likely 1st round choice. What may be reasons to explain his lack of production were simply reduced to excuses by his lack of production since his freshman campaign. There was no need for me to write him off as a fan since he had a year to go on his contract and last I checked my phone machine the Bills did not ask me for adbice anyway. However, I was not gonna purchase any Josh Reed jerseys.

 

Fourth year- The team's bad play and his past efforts did not draw a lot of this fan's attention. Ywt, I did get the sense that he actually played well amidst a dismal Bills team last year. He actually seemed to be JPs go-top guy as a possession receiver and did not deserve the same dismissal which he did deserve after his sophomore campaign or the yawn which was probably the most rational response to his third year.

 

The argument in this thread interested me since it produced a clear dispute between whether Reed deserved a reaction similar to one after his second year disappointment or whether the inkling of improvement I felt from a non-intensive overview was really a more accurate judgment of Reed.

 

Stats can be manipulated or looked at in a way to give a false impression. However, while it is rare for them to settle a football argument totally in a slam dunk way. They should not be disregarded totally or simply dismissed as squat by a rationale person. While not telling all truth in and of themselves, I feel they can be good indicators which support or force one to reconsider general views.

 

Overall, I would say that the stats presented in posts by crackur and Matt actually provide a fairly strong indicator that Reed is probably more accurately thought about as a productive player rather than living in a view legitimately prompted by his dismal sophomore year which seems to be reflected in Badol's views.

 

The horrid miscues Reed was involved in the last game clearly show he should be on a watch list for us fans. However, I think:

 

1. The anecdotal feel of his play I have from last year. AND

2. The stats presented which indicate strongly that he not only was a go-to guy last year who produced first dowms, but did so with a pretty good yard per catch average and no more droppsies than the best of the Bills receiving crew. AND

3. Most importantly, the Bills braintrust chose both to extend his deal based on their judgments and they also speak highly of him as a player. We certainly can have opinions but the braintrust puts Ralph's money where their mouth is and once should not dismiss that.

 

In the end, anyone who claims that Reed should be cut now and he is a complete stiff really has an attitude which is not supported by the market, by the braintrusts word, or the stats. They do themselves a disservice in presenting believable views by taking a harsh view which does not seem supported by objective facts.

 

Other like Badol and the poster who labeled him a #3 at best actually I think provide comments which are supportive of Reed remaining a Bill even though their presentation of these views comes off as harsh against Reed.

 

I think he will likely be a valuable member of the Bills this year because I view him as playing a contributing role as our #4 WR and as a solid member of the #1 ST in the league. My sense is that the top three receivers are Rvans, Price and Parrish. If Reed plays a role in allowing us to go to 4 WR sets where the freakish speed of our top 3 WRs forces them into a zone and Reed's role is to run routes which find seams in these zones and then run after the catch that will be a huge contribution to the team successfully running a St. L style O.

 

Since Reed has produced as a rookie at #3 and revived his game a bit last year, I am totally comfortable with us keeping him, getting some bang from him onf ST and then making frequesnt use of him as a #4,

[Bill from NYC]

man are you dumb or just blind? HE HAS THE HIGHEST CATCH PERCENTAGE on the team.......it means that the other wrs drop more than him

 

750457[/snapback]

 

Did you read his post? The guy is a possession receiver who drops footballs. Speed receivers get a bit of a pass on their hands because they can at times outrun defensive backs to the endzone. The chances of Josh doing so are unlikely.

 

Dropping the football (after his good rookie season) is nothing new to Josh Reed. He dropped some of the best passes I have ever seen Bledsoe throw, including the Patriot days. JP, who needs all the help that he can get, seems bound for the same.

I really don't know why he was re-signed, let alone given a bonus, but this is NOT to say that I have a clue compared to the Bills front office as to his potential.

 

Personally, I hope that Aiken beats him out for the #2 spot. He is bigger, and seems to be a harder worker. Aiker is a friggin monster, and Josh looks a little pudgy to me.

[crackur]

Have you watched the preseason over the last cple of years.......of course aiken is good, IN PRESEASON! then he disappears

 

I hope he steps up and becomes a quality wr..........and Josh steps to fill role 2 or 3

[ricojes]

man are you dumb or just blind? HE HAS THE HIGHEST CATCH PERCENTAGE on the team.......it means that the other wrs drop more than him

 

750457[/snapback]

It Does not mean other receivers had more drops.

Actually Moulds' catch percentage last year was 62.8% vs Reed's 60.4%. So you're wrong unless talking about the WRs on this team currently. Numbers courtesy of Snap Stats.com

750515[/snapback]

Reed was thrown to 53 times last season, had 32 catches and 3 drops (according to snap stat). 60.4% is 32 divided by 53, so it's not just drops that are factored in to this equation.

 

Bottom line is Josh Reed will make this football team, deal with it. It's time we accept that.

[BADOLBILZ]

Yes, Reed has pissed off several fans with untimely drops since he joined the team.  But, last year he was really an asset to the Bills.  Of his 32 catches, 21 went for a first down, and a quarter of them were over 20 yards (14 ypc avg overall).  Also, I can't remember what site tracks "drops" but he did not have many last year, and earned a lot of his yards with solid runs after the catch.  Not bad for a receiver who came into last year "in the doghouse" (with Lindell)....

 

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/302219/gamelogs/2005

 

Short of something like drugs or insubordination, I can't imaingine we'd cut Reed this year.

750456[/snapback]

 

Again, manipulated stats. There are "drops" and there are also balls that should be caught. In the game Friday night, Reed dropped two balls that likely would not be officially scored as drops. Those balls should have been caught.

 

When it comes to getting open, he's exceptional. Blocking, outstanding. Catching the football, below average. What is maddening is that catching the football was NOT a problem for him prior to his second year as a pro. Entering his third year of the dropsies, it's to the point where it doesn't look like he will ever make it back to his rookie form, let alone actually get BETTER.

[TDRupp]

You can use percentages and stats any way you want.

Example.....Kelly Holcolmb's comp % is the best in Bills history.    The stat doesn't mean squat.   

 

Bottom line.....  Josh Reed is a #3 WR at best, #2 on a weak team.

750541[/snapback]

 

 

He COULD be our #2 this year. Easily. And yes, that dones make us a bad team.

 

IMHO, we have two proven players I can classify as very good on O: Evans and McGahee and some would say they might be stretches or projections. That spells a long year IMHO...

 

Go Bills!

[C.Biscuit97]

Did you read his post? The guy is a possession receiver who drops footballs. Speed receivers get a bit of a pass on their hands because they can at times outrun defensive backs to the endzone. The chances of Josh doing so are unlikely.

 

Dropping the football (after his good rookie season) is nothing new to Josh Reed. He dropped some of the best passes I have ever seen Bledsoe throw, including the Patriot days. JP, who needs all the help that he can get, seems bound for the same.

I really don't know why he was re-signed, let alone given a bonus, but this is NOT to say that I have a clue compared to the Bills front office as to his potential.

 

Personally, I hope that Aiken beats him out for the #2 spot. He is bigger, and seems to be a harder worker. Aiker is a friggin monster, and Josh looks a little pudgy to me.

750586[/snapback]

 

I agree 100%. Re-signing Reed this offseason is the one move Marv made that I couldn't see the reasioning behind. Josh Reed is a slow, undersized NFL WR who has bad hands. But other than that, he is really good.

 

As for that stat about catch to drop ratio, there is some glitch in their equation. I am the most positive Bills fan on the planet. I want every member on that team to be successful. I'm not the type to just blindly hate on a player. But since a very good first season, Reed has showed me nothing. I don't make up seeing him the drop the ball; he does all the time. I can count on one hand the amount of drops Evans has had in two years. Additionally, how many times can you recall an outstanding play or catch that Reed has had since his first year. Besides that meaningless catch and run in the snow in the blowout against NE, I don't recall any.

 

Lastly, you just gotta look at what players bring to the table. Andre Davis is a burner and is a solid special teamer. Aiken is a big wr, that is at the very least on par with Reed hands wise, and is an outstanding special teamer. Parrish could be our McGee on offense. He is magic when he gets the ball and is so dangerous in open field. If he gets the ball, you have the feeling he can go all the way on every touch. When have you ever thought that on a Reed reception. Parrish needs to be on the field more. What, honestly, does Reed bring to the table that is better than those 3? Maybe blocking. I'm sure Reed is a nice guy and I hate to bash him but his presence on the Bills does not make this team better. I wish him all the best but I really believe he would have a hard time catching on with another team. He is living off reptuation or the fact it is could to have a Reed at wr on the Bills. Please, DJ and ML, cut the cord.

[generaLee83]

I agree 100%.  Re-signing Reed this offseason is the one move Marv made that I couldn't see the reasioning behind.  Josh Reed is a slow, undersized NFL WR who has bad hands.  But other than that, he is really good. 

 

As for that stat about catch to drop ratio, there is some glitch in their equation.  I am the most positive Bills fan on the planet.  I want every member on that team to be successful.  I'm not the type to just blindly hate on a player.  But since a very good first season, Reed has showed me nothing.  I don't make up seeing him the drop the ball; he does all the time.  I can count on one hand the amount of drops Evans has had in two years.  Additionally, how many times can you recall an outstanding play or catch that Reed has had since his first year.  Besides that meaningless catch and run in the snow in the blowout against NE, I don't recall any.

 

Lastly, you just gotta look at what players bring to the table.  Andre Davis is a burner and is a solid special teamer.  Aiken is a big wr, that is at the very least on par with Reed hands wise, and is an outstanding special teamer.  Parrish could be our McGee on offense.  He is magic when he gets the ball and is so dangerous in open field.  If he gets the ball, you have the feeling he can go all the way on every touch.  When have you ever thought that on a Reed reception.  Parrish needs to be on the field more.  What, honestly, does Reed bring to the table that is better than those 3?  Maybe blocking.  I'm sure Reed is a nice guy and I hate to bash him but his presence on the Bills does not make this team better.  I wish him all the best but I really believe he would have a hard time catching on with another team.  He is living off reptuation or the fact it is could to have a Reed at wr on the Bills.  Please, DJ and ML, cut the cord. 

751328[/snapback]

 

Very well thought out post. The only reason I can think that Marv re-signed him is because it was before the acuquisition of Peerless Price. Even so, it still stunk then and it certainly stinks now. Reed is not a threat, period. I would venture a guess that opposing teams do not refer to something as the "Reed factor" when they are gameplanning. He brings nothing to the table.

 

As far as WR priorities go I understand that he's referred to as a "great blocker" but where does that fall on the list of successful WR characteristics, like 5th or 6th? Probably well behind route running, hands, speed, YAC, vision, etc. etc.

 

As for the "catch" percentage that is being referred to. This formula rates Reed higher than Moulds (R.I.P. ya Texan) and Evans? I guess it does but Moulds and Evans are better players than Reed even when they're sleeping. I'm a simple game observer and I don't get too caught up in formulas/statistics etc (I will admit they have their importance at times) I only know what I see and that is that Josh Reed seems to drop alot of balls, or at least drops an important ball every now and then. He seems to make more drops than Evans and Moulds that's for sure.

 

He just hasn't gotten it done "lately" but he'll probably be here for quite some time. I just think someone else should get the shot at the slot. I don't care if he stays on as a #4 or #5.

[generaLee83]

I've read that Josh has the least drops per throws to him, and personally I want him to be on the field a lot possibly even our #2, but there must be something I'm missing, cause whenever I see him on the field I don't see great plays from him or chunkability, chunkliciousness, etc...

750135[/snapback]

 

 

I think the phrase is "chunkeriority" or "chunkscrulessence" or something all IVY league.

[Dibs]

Very well thought out post.  The only reason I can think that Marv re-signed him is because it was before the acuquisition of Peerless Price.  Even so, it still stunk then and it certainly stinks now.  Reed is not a threat, period.  I would venture a guess that opposing teams do not refer to something as the "Reed factor" when they are gameplanning.  He brings nothing to the table. 

 

As far as WR priorities go I understand that he's referred to as a "great blocker" but where does that fall on the list of successful WR characteristics, like 5th or 6th?  Probably well behind route running, hands, speed, YAC, vision, etc. etc. 

 

As for the "catch" percentage that is being referred to.  This formula rates Reed higher than Moulds (R.I.P. ya Texan) and Evans?  I guess it does but Moulds and Evans are better players than Reed even when they're sleeping.  I'm a simple game observer and I don't get too caught up in formulas/statistics etc (I will admit they have their importance at times) I only know what I see and that is that Josh Reed seems to drop alot of balls, or at least drops an important ball every now and then.  He seems to make more drops than Evans and Moulds that's for sure.

 

He just hasn't gotten it done "lately" but he'll probably be here for quite some time.  I just think someone else should get the shot at the slot.  I don't care if he stays on as a #4 or #5.

751331[/snapback]

I have a feeling you will get your wish.

#1 Evans...no brainer

#2 Price...unless something astounding happens Price is our best bet for #2

#3 Parrish...Apart from the fear he will break, this guy is the guy for the #3 job.

I don't see how Reed will likely be anything but our #4 or #5 WR.

I think he will see a lot of playing time but realistically we have 3 better WRs than him.

[Kelly the Dog]

That catch percentage stat is completely worthless. It includes all the passes that Losman threw in the dirt, the toss aways, the times the guys ran the wrong route. It really tells you very, very little. Reed actually had a very decent year last year on a terrible offense with crappy quarterbacking, zero blocking, poor throwing, little running, a ton of penalties, several injuries, incomprehensible play-calling and other bad coaching. He's a great blocker and like Badol said, he's always open. He also makes the tough catches and can run after the catch. Most of his drops are right in his hands. He's also very, very tough. It's a concentration and confidence thing, not a hands thing.

 

Jauron said in the Cinci game that in three of the first six plays he was in he knocked his man to the ground. A WR. That's unheardof. And half the plays are running plays, so it's not an unimportant element to the game.

 

That said, he should be the #4 WR on this team unless Peerless is a wash-out, but he has the ability to be a valuable member. One more year of the easy drops though and he should be gone.

[crackur]

actually it only counts the ones that actually touch the hands of the wr/ or them physically as far as I know

[Kelly the Dog]

actually it only counts the ones that actually touch the hands of the wr/ or them physically as far as I know

751437[/snapback]

There is zero chance that Lee Evans only caught 60% of the balls that touched his hands last year. Zero.