JOSH REED - cut / traded???

[5 Wide]

60% of the time, Josh Reed cathces the ball, every time. Another interesting note is that 94% of us will at some point in our lifetime, experience Chunkaliciousness.

 

Seriously though, Reed is a different receiver than a Parrish, Evans, or Price. He is a big (not tall but thick) reciever who can muscle through a DB. I really like the thought of Reed, and I still may be hanging my hat on his ability coming out of college, but he is one of those players who I feel will just blow up if he leaves the Bills. With that being said, I really wouldn't mind having Evans, Price, and Parrish as our top 3 and you can't pay a #4 what you are paying Reed.

[ganesh]

Jauron said in the Cinci game that in three of the first six plays he was in he knocked his man to the ground. A WR. That's unheardof. And half the plays are running plays, so it's not an unimportant element to the game.

 

751434[/snapback]

 

Don't tell that to Hines Ward.......I agree...If Reed becomes half of what Ward is to the steelers, we should be ok.

[Matt in KC]

Being better than Nance, Wilson or Fast Freddie, I'm glad to keep Reed on the roster. He had some great plays last year and I'm hopeful it continues into the regular season this year.

 

Besides downfield blocking, I think he's the best on the team at coming back to JP when he is in trouble. I must have seen JP throw to Reed at least 5 times on the right sideline after a scramble last year. (Does he ever scramble to the left?)

[5 Wide]

Most Qb's will scramble to their throwing hand side, for a righty QB running left and throwing is next to impossible.

[generaLee83]

60% of the time, Josh Reed cathces the ball, every time.  Another interesting note is that 94% of us will at some point in our lifetime, experience Chunkaliciousness.

 

751448[/snapback]

 

 

60% of the time, Reed catches it every time.

[Pyrite Gal]

He COULD be our #2 this year.  Easily.  And yes, that dones make us a bad team.

 

IMHO, we have two proven players I can classify as very good on O:  Evans and McGahee and some would say they might be stretches or projections.  That spells a long year IMHO...

 

Go Bills!

751289[/snapback]

 

I like what Reed potentially brings to this O, but there is no way that I can see him being in serious competition to be our #2 WR this year in a Fairchild designed and un O which should be our version of the Rams style.

 

He is currently #2 on our depth chart behind our #2 WR, Peerless, and PP has not been anything to talk about in our two pre-season games (though he has had a number of long receptions in practice that drew mention). However, even if one were to judge Reed to have beaten out PP (a doubtful proposition even if you are so driven in your assessments by pre-season game production that you ding PP, Reed's pre-season game production has involved a couple of bad misfires as well), then in order to make out scheme effective speed freaks like Parrish or Davis are better partners for Evans in 2 WR sets than possession recievers like Aiken or Reed in what should be a high-flying/pass-happy/RAC oriented O.

 

I think there is a specific need for good possession WRs in our O as it appears to be conceived. However, it appears to be good route work against an opponent who is forced into zone coverage by the speed threat we present. I think that among the potential aspects of the Reed game which attracted the Bills to extend him is that WR coach Tyke Tolbert has publicly and broadly praised his football smarts and thus his ability to diagnose the coverage the opponent will use and find the vulnerable seams in a zone. Likewise, he was an RB earlier in his college career before the great hands which won him the Biletnikoff award as best college WR his senior year brought him a full time WR job.

 

This RB ability presents the possibility of great RAC work by him after he finds the seam to make the catch. I have not seen a lot of outstanding RAC work from him as a pro even though unfortunately he did demonstrate a noticeably horrible case of the droppsies his second year. His RAC has not produced this same sort of anecdotal notice. However, his very good ypc stats last year and his catch% #s which may well indicate that there was something good going on here which could speak to him actually having solved the droppsie problem and retaining RAC ability.

 

The O was so bad and generally unproductive last year that the good stats could be an actual representation of how the Bills plan to use him even though there are few outstanding events that build good anecdotes. I think Badol is correct in noting that stats can be manipulated or chosen to demonstrate a reality which is not there.

 

However, stats can also be an indicator to show the way to a reality which is there or could be developed but which is hidden in the overall lack of production of this O.

 

The Bills are making a bet that the Fairchild O will be productive such that with Josh Reed playing the same type and level of game he played last year that seemingly overnight we will see his work turn into team rather than simply individual production and also reveal some great anecdotes which produce large gains on the run after catching short passes and TDs which will lead to a new script being adopted by Bills fans to describe Reed.

 

The interesting things to me about the WR depth charts is the fact that Parrish is now the #3 LWR behind Aiken behind Evans. I think this is due to some quality production by Aiken in the first two pre-season games and a hallmark of the new Bills coaching staff is that production matters. I think and hope this is not due to any judgment of Parrish issues, as I do not think Aiken brings to the table the big play ability Parrish does which will make our O more difficult to defense. However, i think in any case even if he is not the first WR off the bench or the 3rd WR in 3WR sets, Aiken will get plenty of time on the field and as a contributor on ST.

 

It is also interesting that PP is first on the depth chart at the RWR position. If production matters so much, then between PP not producing in the first two pre-season games and also him making an error and sleeping through a practice (it is forgiven with a fine but there is no production here to elevate PP when he does not show and back-ups got a chance to elevate themselves) it would not be surprising to see PP lose the #2 WR after 2 games and someone else step up. This has not happened and it must have been an interesting conversation between Jauron/Fairchild/Tolbert and probably Marv about what the WR depth chart should be.

 

My sense of the WR performance so far is:

 

Evans- Clearly the #1 WR and his game production last weekend showed why. He has shown some good examples of concentation and recieving skills in practice rather than simply relying on his freakish speed which is a great sign for Bills fans.

 

Price- Looks far better on paper than with his production in games so far and even his practice production has been more about hinting how useful he might be rather than consistent production in this area. He has demonstrated some good character in terms of showing vet leadership to our young WRs, but even these intangibles are cancelled out by him misreading the schedule and missing a practice. Still despite this lukewarm at best output, the observation from outsiders is that he still has his speed and even though some fans are slow to forgive someone who chose to leave Buffalo as a FA (and thus they complain without any substantiation of him having a bad attitude or being a bad route runner) he still presents a threat that can stand to make Evans more effective and make us really be St. Louis East if the speed potential of hean and Evans, the two of them and Parrish force the other team into zones. If so, the plan is for Reed to pick on the zones and show some RAC and WM to be a dump-off threat with RAC potential and this offense could be fearsome. Preseason production (or lack thereof) does not matter as long as he presents a real threat in the regular season.

 

Aiken- The most consistent performer on this team in pre-season besides Evans. His on-field production of a few catches with good ypc is an added bonus for a player who justifies his roster spot with his ST output on a solid ST unit. From his first campaigns, ST will likely be his major contribution to the team as his talents have been as a possession reciever whose production in the regular season never has equaled some good past pre-season work. However, it is possible that this is a breakout year for him as a position player. If his vet experiences allows him to do the job envisioned for Reed of working zones for seams then he can supplant Reed as #4. Reed would have to not realize his RAC potential or re-develop a case of the droppsies as his Reed's blocking skills are another leg up he has. If not winning out over Reed, the major impact of Aiken's production is that he has made it much tougher for Nance to make this squad as he is only an inch shorter. His production makes it a lot easier for the Bills to cut Nance and risk him signing elswhere or they sign him to our PS.

 

Reed- As I said, I think the Bill's coaches feel they know what he can do and theyHowever, maybe the coaches already are confident he can be used in a role which calls for more production by him and showing things even us outsiders can see is not required. However, i doubt they can have that much confidence in him that they are holding back. visualize a bigger role for him in terms of production as a 4th reciever in our new go-go offense.

 

Parrish- His speed and the gamebreaking skills which make him a PR threat also do a lot for our scheme as his prescence with Evans and Price forces even the best D opponents into a zone or if they man up they risk our QB identifying who is single covered and sending him by audible on a fly pattern which may turn into a footrace which ends up looking like the Losman-Evans TD last week. It is interesting that Aiken has surpassed him on the depth chart, but I think this more because of Aiken's achievement than due to problems for Parrish. He has not been used as a PR guy there so Parrish definitely needs to show more to seem to merit more time.

 

Amdre Davis- He has only shown moderate success in a variety of roles. It's not bad, but I do not think it is enough for us to choose to keep him over a young player who shows more upside or over a vet whose contract makes us want to keep him. If the Bills keep 6 WRs, then Evans, Price, Parrish, Reed, and Aiken have a leg up on him and its gonna be tough for him to win the one spot.

 

Wilson- He has probably been the WR who has stood out the most in camp catching everything thrown his way. Too bad he did not drop his second foot in bounds on one play against Cincy since it would have been a great catch against real opponents.

 

Johnathan Smith- I think he has done everything he has been asked to do, but not done it so extraordinarily well that he shows himself to be better than the competition for the last WR spot.

 

Nance- Aiken playing well makes him a likely candidate for the PS if hr is gonna stay, but as I suspect he will get other offers if cut to go onto the PS he probably is gone.

 

Denney- camp fodder though the aggressive competition has even squezzed some producton for him.

 

I really do not take a final opinion on who survives the final cut as it probably comes down to how the ball sails and bouinces in the final two games.

[BADOLBILZ]

Yes, Reed has pissed off several fans with untimely drops since he joined the team.  But, last year he was really an asset to the Bills.  Of his 32 catches, 21 went for a first down, and a quarter of them were over 20 yards (14 ypc avg overall).  Also, I can't remember what site tracks "drops" but he did not have many last year, and earned a lot of his yards with solid runs after the catch.  Not bad for a receiver who came into last year "in the doghouse" (with Lindell)....

 

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/302219/gamelogs/2005

 

Short of something like drugs or insubordination, I can't imaingine we'd cut Reed this year.

750456[/snapback]

 

I think the article on the front page today dispels your notion that it's just a misconception among fans that Reed's hands are a problem(I mean, beside the fact that the team drafted a replacement for him last year). If the OC is telling the newspaper that in his opinion Reed had "drops" in both games(because they weren't all easy grabs), he's taken notice that Reed has a problem catching the football.

 

Will he make the team? Barring an absolute barrage of drops in the next two preseason games, it's almost a certainty he will. He just signed long term and has big reception numbers in his future IF he can hold onto the ball. But it is what it is, and denying it or fishing for stats to support the opposite is absurd.

[Fan in Chicago]

"You hate to drop balls, but you're going to drop them," Reed said. "You don't want to, but it's going to happen and it's all about how you respond."

 

I disliked this statement from JR. This is not the attitude you should have. Not only does he accept that he has a problem catching but also implying it will be an on going problem. In the current regime, this statement should indicate he is not the 'character' player and he should be cut. I am a firm believer in accepting your short comings but that should be associated with a corresponding effort to get better.

 

This statement by Fairchild may be an indication of that happening should someone else show they can consistently catch the ball:

 

"He has had drops in both games, and you've got to make those plays," said Fairchild.

[Swift Sylvan]

"You hate to drop balls, but you're going to drop them," Reed said. "You don't want to, but it's going to happen and it's all about how you respond."

 

I disliked this statement from JR. This is not the attitude you should have. Not only does he accept that he has a problem catching but also implying it will be an on going problem. In the current regime, this statement should indicate he is not the 'character' player and he should be cut. I am a firm believer in accepting your short comings but that should be associated with a corresponding effort to get better.

 

This statement by Fairchild may be an indication of that happening should someone else show they can consistently catch the ball:

 

"He has had drops in both games, and you've got to make those plays," said Fairchild.

752257[/snapback]

 

I play an amatuer sport at my school, and everyone drops the disc when it's throw to them. And believe me when I say I HATE it, but it happens to everyone on the team. I think Reed is being realistic in that you can't be perfect 100% of the time, but saying that it matters on trying to improve on it or just ignoring it, him hopefully doing the former.

[ROSCOE P. COE TRAIN]

Reed's value is no better than a 5th rounder. What are you talking about?

[/dev/null]

Reed's value is no better than a 5th rounder.  What are you talking about?

752310[/snapback]

And that's being optimistic

 

Josh Reed is much more likely to be cut than traded. There isn't a big market for Josh Reed type receivers with 4 year contracts. So teams aren't going to give up anything to guarantee that they get JR. Instead they'll just gonna wait for JR to get cut and try to sign him to a 1 year deal. If they sign him great, if not there's always next years draft