Mikie2times Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 The contracts rookies signed for this year are insane. Take Vernon Davis for example. Here is a player that never played a down yet he's compensated more then Antonio Gates. What's scary is the cap will only continue to rise. Teams like Buffalo will have the cap room to stay in the first round, but eventually the contracts these players sign might exceed the risk/reward ratio. Imagine if last years draft class got paid what this years did? Practically no value would have existed in the first round. Eventually you might see some of the smaller market teams turn to the Jimmy Johnson strategy. If a guy they love is available in round 1 they might take the chance, but it could be common place for Buffalo's of the world to make trading down the priority. In years like the previous one I certainly wouldn't mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lothar Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 The contracts rookies signed for this year are insane. Take Vernon Davis for example. Here is a player that never played a down yet he's compensated more then Antonio Gates. What's scary is the cap will only continue to rise. Teams like Buffalo will have the cap room to stay in the first round, but eventually the contracts these players sign might exceed the risk/reward ratio. Imagine if last years draft class got paid what this years did? Practically no value would have existed in the first round. Eventually you might see some of the smaller market teams turn to the Jimmy Johnson strategy. If a guy they love is available in round 1 they might take the chance, but it could be common place for Buffalo's of the world to make trading down the priority. In years like the previous one I certainly wouldn't mind. 745938[/snapback] I think the players' union has been getting gripes from the veterans about it - it'll be interesting to see if anything can be done about it in the near future. However, and given the 40-50% increase in revenue anticipated with this new TV contract, it may all be swept under the rug as vets get more money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albany,n.y. Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 If you trust your scouts, general manager, and whoever else has a say in draft picks, you won't be afraid of the risk/reward. If you don't trust those guys, you better get some guys you do trust. Bailing out of the 1st isn't an option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 If you trust your scouts, general manager, and whoever else has a say in draft picks, you won't be afraid of the risk/reward. If you don't trust those guys, you better get some guys you do trust. Bailing out of the 1st isn't an option. 745976[/snapback] Well put...Also, if 1/2 the teams are small market teams in the league, then we would need 16 trades in the 1st rounder...which means every big market team will have to sign two 1st round picks.....Not gonna happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silvermike Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 If you trust your scouts, generael manager, and the rest of the draft team, and they all say that you'll be better off spending the $16 million on a few veterans who were cut last week - I think you think about it. Sometimes, the talent just isn't there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordio Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 If you trust your scouts, general manager, and whoever else has a say in draft picks, you won't be afraid of the risk/reward. If you don't trust those guys, you better get some guys you do trust. Bailing out of the 1st isn't an option. 745976[/snapback] I agree. It is fine trading down once in awhile, but you better believe most good teams cores are built thru the 1st & high 2nd round picks. Anything lower then that, I think the success rate for a player to make it drops dramatically. You need those blue chippers to make up the core of your team & if you do have a high draft pick(top 10) you better not waste it or it could set your franchise back 2-3 years minimum(aka Mike Williams). Remember, with M Williams, the guy who was picked before us was Julius Peppers. Carolina had a pick before us because in the regular season we came back from a 12 point deficit in the 2nd 1/2 to beat Carolina & get one of our 3 wins that year. We loose that game, we are in a position to draft peppers. Funny how football works sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Britbillsfan Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 And some years it is really difficult to trade down because the quality of the players available is perceived to be so low. If you have no trading partner you are forced into picking a player possibly higher than you might otherwise rate him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerball Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 I think the players' union has been getting gripes from the veterans about it - it'll be interesting to see if anything can be done about it in the near future. However, and given the 40-50% increase in revenue anticipated with this new TV contract, it may all be swept under the rug as vets get more money. 745952[/snapback] The players had every opportunity to do something about it during collective bargaining. If they thought it was a big deal they could has set a cap on rookie salaries that would have left a bigger percentage of the overall cap for veteran players than currently exists. They didn't do that, so guys like Gates renegotiate or wait until their second deal to make their money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SDS Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 A rookie cap would require a trade-off. I doubt you could get a draft choice to sign anything beyond 3 years, if you sevrely limit his 1st contract. So, you save upfront, but then have to deal with them leaving in a few short years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted August 18, 2006 Author Share Posted August 18, 2006 If you trust your scouts, general manager, and whoever else has a say in draft picks, you won't be afraid of the risk/reward. If you don't trust those guys, you better get some guys you do trust. Bailing out of the 1st isn't an option. 745976[/snapback] I agree that a big factor is how well your scouting department can grade players, but at the same time the cap is only going to continue to get slanted. Even when the FA market falls in line with the cap values how can we expect the Bills to max out this massive new cap with such a huge revenue disparity. We need to find a way's to stay competitive in the new NFL. Take Buffalo's drafts from 2000-2004, a 5 year sample. 1st Round Picks- Eric Flower, Nate Clements, Mike Williams, Willis McGahee, JP Losman, Lee Evans 2nd/3rd Round Picks- Travares Tillman, Corey Moore, Aaron Schobel, Travis Henry, Ron Edwards, Jonas Jennings, Josh Reed, Ryan Denney, Coy Wire, Chris Kelsey, Angelo Crowell, Tim Anderson Over this span we've had six 1st round draft picks, and twelve picks in rounds 2/3. Out of those picks we fielded these players that have started games. 1st round starters- Clements, MaGahee, Evans, Williams, Losman 2nd/3rd round starters- Schobel, Henry, Jennings, Crowell, Edwards, Kelsey, Anderson, Denney, Reed While this reflects the poor quality of our drafts from this span, it also shows why coaches like Jimmy Johnson favored such a high ratio of 2/3 round picks. Not only did we field a similar amount of starters in rounds 2/3, but we also added twice the amount of depth, with twice the allotment of draft picks. In the future these picks will come at a fraction of the cost when compared to the massive contracts 1st rounders will sign. If the Bills love a guy in round 1 I'm not suggestion we bail, but trading down should become a much more viable option in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pyrite Gal Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 The players had every opportunity to do something about it during collective bargaining. If they thought it was a big deal they could has set a cap on rookie salaries that would have left a bigger percentage of the overall cap for veteran players than currently exists. They didn't do that, so guys like Gates renegotiate or wait until their second deal to make their money. 746066[/snapback] The slotted salaries are a big deal to the vets, but they are a positive big deal rather than a negtive big deal. The slots sets an ever increasing (as income from the networks increases) baseline for salaries. Sure it means that an idiot like Ryan Leaf makes more $ in one fell swoop than many folks make in a lifetime and then he does nothing for it, but also Peyton Manning gets the same compensation and is not compensated at the level his play deserves. More important, when Peyton hits FA, not only is the base salary which he must be paid boatloads more than to keep him a Colt based on the high wage received by him and Leaf, but also the new wage must be substantially higher than the slotted amounts given to his borther, RoboQB or Phillip Rivers or he is walking elsewhere. The NFLPA (and the NFL) have developed the slotting system as a mechanism for distribution of the increasingly huge amount of money paid by the networks to the league. The relatively small total % of income set aside for the rookie pool virtually immediately flows through in setting an even higher market rate for signing FAs and increases in the vet minimum so it is not a bad thing or a zero sum game for the players at all. It also provides a financial reward for the players to work hard in college to get trained for working in the NFL. If the rookie pool were significantly reduced, you would see players looking to get out of college as soon as they could (and like MLB, NHL, and NBA really demand to be signed at 16 or like golf, tennis ,etc even demand to allow the free market to give them big bucks at 13 or 14. Instead, the rookie pool allows for a system where unlike the other major sports leagues where major league teams have to pay for their minor league system in team ownership or negotiated deals betwwen minor and major league teams, all the NFL team development and essentially a minor league is paid for by other parties. In fact, since a good chunk of these minor leagues are paid for with your and my tax dollars going to state universities for traveling teams, big $ coaches, training tables, etc. it really is the height of corporate welfare in terms of support for the NFL. The team owners are not simply rich people demanding more and more income from the free market for their product, but they also are rich people demanding and getting payment of tax revenue to develop their product and profits. Even though I think this is unfair, I acutally support this as my team and my chose entertainment interest, the NFL, develops this product I love with this filthy lucre. In fact, as best as i can tell, what Ralph is doing with his seeming Alzheimer's like moments is setting up to hit the corporate welfare pool big time beginning with this falls elections. If Ralph plays the game right, hhe can get NYS to subsidize setting up a stadium authority (much the same as the downstate NYJ/NYG proposals for Manhattan which were rehected). This authority will not only allow for the direct payments of cash to build a new stadium (likely in downtown Buffalo, but given their regional development strategy this is not a sure thing) and the Bills will get essentially full use and ownership of this facility without paying for or taking on the liability for its development), but also government can get a far better deal than the private sector in terms of issuing tax free bonds at an excellent interest rate as essentially tax payments will fund this effort. Rather than small market teams being forced out by the rookie pool and slotted contracts, they are part of a system which guarantees teams that costs will only occur at a specific level which will be based on the uncontrollable unknown of levels of income. The speculation and levels of rookie contracts within a defined pool is really not an issue at all. It really is not an issue in the big picture that some folks like Mike Williams or Harrington hit the lottery with their contracts (or first time FAs like Rob Johnson get contracts they do not deserve with their output) because this cost raises the boat for other NFLPA contracts and keeps college players happy that they are more than willing (beyond the occaisional Maurice Clarett) to play the game in the currenty system where the NFL recieves a huge subsidy and grear advertising for developing their product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SamsBuffetTable Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 Can't remember the link but there are a few statistical papers written about the subject that state that due to: salary cap concerns, out of controll pay scale for early picks, and the bust rate of picks at a given draft position, It is better for a team to have a mid to late first round pick or to trade down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justnzane Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 2nd/3rd round starters- Schobel, Henry, Jennings, Crowell, Edwards, Kelsey, Anderson, Denney, Reed,Wire 746091[/snapback] Wire started his rookie year, before we picked up Milloy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted August 18, 2006 Author Share Posted August 18, 2006 Wire started his rookie year, before we picked up Milloy 746248[/snapback] I tried to forget. That wasn't the year we had Watson starting was it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justnzane Posted August 18, 2006 Share Posted August 18, 2006 yeah that was the year where winfield went down to injury for a few games and watson stepped in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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