A look at the Carolina game

[stevewin]

He's not an inaccurate passer. He's a jittery passer.

743705[/snapback]

That's probably the best description I've seen. Not any less of a problem IMO. I know most people think it will go away w/ 'experience' - but it could also be something that he continuously has problems with. Let's hope he can get it together.

[Kelly the Dog]

Apparently less so this year.  I was impressed with his ability to sidestep the pressure but stay in the pocket against Carolina.  He wasn't looking to run if his first read wasn't there.  However, on one occasion he stepped up past 3 rushers but then waited too long to get rid of the ball and they came back from behind on him.  That timing will come with reps.

743715[/snapback]

Exactly. It is a little less than last year. And when he settles down, he won't be looked at as an inaccurate passer. That's really one of the least of his our worries, IMO, even though it appears on the surface to be his biggest problem. It's not, and it's not even close. You can tell by the fact that a lot of the misfires are thrown SO bad or right in the dirt. He's a highstrung kid. That's what you get out of a guy with too much adrenaline or nerves. An inaccurate passer is a guy who most often throws a little too short or a little too high or cannot lead a reciever on a slant or it's always a hair behind. JP is not that way at all. There's a chance he'll never settle down, and he will forever suck, but I think we're seeing a progression.

[34-78-83]

Excellent Post Mr. Simon!

Enjoyed the detailed description and it made me feel a little better about the line play, which I have no recording of to take a 2nd look at.

Did you notice Everett at all from a blocking standpoint?

[buffaloboyinATL]

- Speaking of physical, Sam Aiken has a bit of a mean streak doesn’t he?

 

743562[/snapback]

 

Great review. Aiken was a beast on ST and he played very well as a receiver. He absolutely punished #15 from Carolina a few times on kick-offs to the point where he was starting to look gun shy. He nailed him on the first kick and never let up after that. In my opinion, he locked a spot on the roster last week.

[Lurker]

Good post, thx for the analysis.  One question - was Chris V the reason the Bills couldn't get the running game going on the opening drive?

743567[/snapback]

 

IIRC, two of WM's three carries were to the right side behind CV...both got zilch.

[MikeSpeed]

Oh man you suck!

Now I have to go back and watch the whole first half over again!

Super post!

Can't wait to read next weeks!

[Cugalabanza]

Wow, this thread is gold!

 

I'll be holding my breath all year that the 1st unit o-line stays healthy.

 

I also agree that Aiken is looking very strong.

[JÂy RÛßeÒ]

There's a chance he'll never settle down, and he will forever suck, but I think we're seeing a progression.

743727[/snapback]

You could say this about the entire team, and progression is what I'm hoping for this year in all areas including behind the bench and upstairs.

[nonprophet]

K. Williams....

 

Who si this guy. They were calling his name a lot. He also played a lot in the first half. if he can do what he did in a real game, i would love to see him in there on running downs, or even start if McCargo isnt ready.

743643[/snapback]

He's what we got in exchange for Eric Moulds.

[Zac]

Aiken is the best gunner we've had since Tasker. Possibly the best in the league.

[Pyrite Gal]

As usual many thanks for a detailed look and some provactive comments. My take on what you said is:006, 03:20 AM]

 

Melvin Fowler: I watched the game with a bud I have not seen for a while and I must admit we spent more time catching up with each other than watching the game, and I have no reviewed the tape lately so my reactions are mostly based on what I expected from folks given their recent history and glances at the game. In that light it is good to get your report on Fowler because this is what I hoped for an expected from him after he shows so good stuff but was a second tier priority in CLE and given some good work by him MN (particularly during their 6 game win streak). MN was not gonna pay him starter money to come back with Matt Birk back in the house for them. It is a legit question as to why Fowler did not spark a bidding war if he as that good.

 

However, I think the answer is that though he has performed well, he never has started 16 at C and in fact had a few injury issues in his brief carreer. its too early to decalre him injury prone, but it was too early for folks to spend a bunch of bucks on him either. This is why the Bills got him and I suspect he will play well. The questions are will he make it through the season doing well and if not what is out plan B at C.

 

Tuten Reyes: This was particularly good news. The one play with Reyes prominent I happened to watch during the game saw him get beat on first glance. Virtually all OL play needs a second glance and the detailed look you provided to have a legitimate take though and we fans are more than happy to insist on illegitimate takes though so he was definitely someone I wanted to review and here what folks were saying. Its great to here that a detailed review reflects some positive comments.

 

Though I think that all Bills fans as concerned as they are about our hprrendous OL and recognizing that the best way to build an OL is through an approach that makes solid use of drafting and developing talent, folks need to recognize that TD tired and failed to do this spending first day choices on MW and Jennings and failing to produce good play out of lower choices like Sullivan, Pacillos and others.

 

The Bills tried this smart route and failed miserably with their assessment and player deverlopment under GW, Vinky, Ruel, Sheppard and Killdrive. Now the Golden Boys are simply not on a timeline that allows for a draft focus on rebuilding the OL (beyond catching lightening in a bottle from second day picks like Butler) and FAs of the second tier like Reyes and Fowler and potentially proven talent next year in FA are going to be the way we get this done.

 

Reyes has some real challenges as though he was productive last year it was at RG rather than LG. He is likely a far better player than Anderson proved to be but it is doubtful he is great. Your being impressed by him is a good sign that his arrival will result in real improvement for our OL once a clear chemistry is developed between him, Fowler and Gandy.

 

CV- I am not surprised you found his play unimpressive because his increased injury occurence and the clear decision by the Bills for him to sit in OTAs seems to be a decision to not put mileage on this old body. He was a good get by us as we needed even a guy heading into the backside of his career to replace Ruben, but I think it is a matter of time before he is done and likely it will happen this season if not even before this season if we have a better answer on the team. I suspect Preston will be a better answer, but the problem is that he is also the answer if injury issues knock Fowler out. This cakculus is part of why I found one post which declared Preston as an idiot because Geisinger got a bunch of back-up C reps on Saturday. i think it was a fairly desperate attempt to try to develop Geigsinger or simply see if he is good enough to allow us to go to preston at RG and sit or cut CV. If you want to take some time to look at the second half, i would suggest a good focus would be to see if Geisinger looks like a good enough back-up who made need to step up for Fokler when/if he gets nicked as our starting C,

 

My sense is that Peters was the usual mized bag of production as he continues to quickly learn to be a starting OL player, however, I think his bad moments may have looked a little worse than usual because Peppers is such a talent. I'm glad he continues to hold his own.

 

 

John McCargo/Kyle Williams- The production by these two on Saturday is actually humourous since we have both players. If McCargo had put on the same show that Williams apparently put on the Bills would be hailed as making a steal with the McCargo choice. However, even if he was simply OK, McCargo's performance did not impress the way one would hope a 1st round pick you traded up for would impress.

 

This is more amusing rather than tragedy for Bills fans as Williams did put on a show which continues him turning heads in practice with is play. If Williams becomes a contributor in the DL rotation, though I may well feel the mcCargo move was a waste if resources I will not feel bad about it as Williams is doing the job we expected McCargo to do. The person who should feel bad is Tim Anderson though because ultimately for the Bills the measure is going to be whether we have better talent to replace him. I do not care whther this is Williams or McCargo (though probably both which is really good news for ua) as long as we have better talent at DT.

 

Comments on Odds and Ends

 

- I thought the offenses early struggles to move the ball belonged more at the feet of the skill players than the OLine. I was actually pleasantly surprised at how well they worked as a unit, more so once Preston ahd played a series. Carolina was rushing 6 at times and used a limited package of twists and stunts and the Bills OLine handled it very well. Blitzing lanes were closed off, guys passed rushers off to each other smoothly, there were limited penalties against a great DLine and they even showed some easurable surge in the run game a few times. An unexpectedly good showing, imo.

 

1. I actually expected the OL to play well at the start, it really is whether the back-u[s are sufficient which is where I think the real issue will be unless we get incredibly lucky with injuries.

 

2. it is not surprising the skill players or the O as a whole was not productive since we are running a vanilla version of the Rams East scheme which will perform best with good reads and nice plays that get receiver separation quickly. However, i wish we had seen simple natural talent from folks like Evans show up even if the scheme did not do a lot to help them.

 

 

- I enjoy watching Gates dip the shoulder and agree with most that he’s a solid back, but I’m nowhere near ready for him to supplant Shaud who I consider very underappreciated.

 

3. The Gates/Shaud/Thomas note worth paying attention to is that the item which will determine most who gets kept of these three are going to be A. ST play and B. Blitz pick-up rather than how well they run. Just like the Bills cutting their best RB rusher in pre-season several years ago (I cannot even remember his name) and no other team in the NFL even giving him a bite as a potential reserve speaks volumes about how the back-up RB is judged. Any comments which build a case for a back-up because he is such a stud rusher may be true but really misses the points he will be judged upon.

 

- It didn’t take Gearless long to show why I wish he’d just go away. JP makes a miraculous escape (it was on Preston’t first series when he stepped on Fowler and interior protection broke down, really the only time the entire first half aside from a couple Villarrial near misses) to buy himself extra time and finds Veerless with a step on the nickleback. He leads him enough and all Hairless has to do is establish position (on an already beaten guy who’s been covering for 6.8 seconds) and come back to his QB (like he’s supposed to) and the Bills convert 3rd down on a stellar play by a young QB. Is that what Rearless does? No, he shies away from the minimal contact and allows the DB to take away position instead of coming back to Losman. Then he continues heading toward the sideline and away from Losman and doesn’t even make a legitimate effort to prevent the pick. Careless has created more turnovers than touchdowns in his career and I wish the Bills would just eat that stupid bonus and get a dedicated young player on the field.

 

 

4. i think your Peerless comments really miss the point of how the Bills plan to use him. It matters little how we outsiders read his personality or even his play, what he is about is adding the threat of speed and past production to the scheme. I could not care less about how folks read his personality or even the judgments which outsiders make on his technique. The key is whether PP still has enough raw speed and merits the rep of his last great production year. it is not the primary concern whther he turns the wrong way or runs the wrong route or does not show the crispness in route running you (or even I) would like 75% of the time. If he presents opposing DBs and DCs with the fear that the QB might go to him the one or few times in a game where he runs the route the way you want, then the DBs and DC will give him the cushion he needs to get receptions even with lousy routes and forces opponents into zones to deal with the speed threat offered by Evans, Parrish and PP.

 

Opinions about individual players from us fans really do not matter a lot here even if they are correct. What matters is whether our version of the Rams O is effective when we unleash the full package.

 

 

- If teh Bills' Oline has the same run of bad luck as last year, the season is over. The only depth at Tackle is McFarland who was just awful until I saw some improvement during an NFLEurope game over the summer(did I mention it was Europe?). Geisinger is backing up Fowler and a cursory viewing of the 2ndhalf left me with the impression that he looked like complete shlt at the pivot. If Vilarrial is done, we suddenly have 0 depth at Guard as well. At some point some guys will miss a game or two, and when they do it's likely going ot hurt. Badly.

 

5. This is why I have been saying that the OL issue this year which likely will determine productivity is not the quality of play of the starters but more likely the depth and quality of the back-ups.

 

- Imo (which will most certainly be ridiculed), Carolina’s opening drive meant absolutely nothing. The Bills ran a base defense with no shifting, blitzing, pressing or anything until the next to last play of that drive. Carolina knew both corners were just going to hang back and not give up anything up top, so instead of working on their offense they apparently just decided to play pitch and catch in the space that everybody knew would be there on the first series of the first preseason game. Frankly, Carolina really didn’t do itself any favors and it really didn’t help or hurt the Bills at all since it bore no resemblence to what they’re going to be running in the regular season. It was a meaningless giveaway drive that the Panthers accepted so everybody would have something to feel good about. Big whoop.

 

6. This fact about what is important and about how the pre-season works is actually relevant to the Bills because a lot of our production is going to be about confidence. Particularly at QB, the irony may be that things are setting up nicely for the Bills. The Bills also will be doing themself no favor in terms of developing scheme performance if we start off the next pre-season game with a TD by simply running a semi-complex approach which over-matches a vanilla Bengals D. However, if we were to do this, while this would do little to improve JP in terms of running our O the way we want to run it, it will allow us to sit him down having had success which allows him to credibly claim the QB job. KH and Nall can then slug it out for the #2 job with KH needing to show that his inconsistent camp performance and horrid Sat. were the exception to the rule of him doing good reads and throwing the short passes leading to RAC and checking down when the D covers deep and leaves the area underneath open OR Nall will have to command the back-up role after his injury.

 

The worse case for would be if neither of these career back-ups are good enough to back-up here (I am almost certain one and probably both will be though neither is likely a starter quality player at all), or JP is not worthy of at leasr a learning opportunity here by being able to play an adequate game even though I doubt he will be a very good NFL QB this year. The key for Fairchild and the Bills O is whether we can put up some Ws with a merely adequate QB (rather than a very good one) which we are likely to have this year.

 

In order to do this, we will need:

 

A. Speedy WRs (or with good RAC ability from his days as a former RB from Josh Reed).

B. An OL which better than last year's starters and has good enough back-ups to deal with the nicks which usually come in an NFL season.

C. Development of receiver productivity from WM which matches his rusher productivity overall last year.

D. Good play design and development by Fairchild.

 

 

 

 

-You thought I wasn’t going to mention QB’s, eh? It’s all over but the change in reps, Losman is the Bills starter and it’s not even close. In fact, I hope the Bills cut ties with Holcomb tomorrow and get another young guy in here while it’s still relatively early in August. I’m not going to rag on Holcombe cuz he seems like a nice guy and he’s entertained me with some aggressive play in the past. But he’s done and right now he’s just playing out the string. He never had a great toolbox to begin with and his body has just reached the point where it can’t play QB in the NFL any more. I think he knows it and at this point he’s just trying to pad the bank account while staying healthy and employed for as long as he can. More power to him as I’d be doing the same, but he’s not an asset to this organization at this point in time. Considering that he’s taking up a valuable toster spot and that he might even be a hindrance to Losman’s development, I’d say not only is he not an asset, but he may well be a liabilityif he's costing Losman reps and timing with his WR's.. If the Bills can’t find a young guy whose upside they like to take his roster spot, the leat they could do is placate the fans by bringing in somebody who’s fun to watch. Joe Hamilton would be fun in a Bills uni for a year or two and he’d come a lot cheaper. C’mon Marv and Modrak, just cut the string and give Holcombe a chance to move on and the Bills a chance to pay for potential instead of memories.

 

7. I really think JP will win the starting job and I hope it is through producing some positive kudos for him in the next pre-season game even if the success really stems from overmatching a vanilla D and actually it will be the third game where we judiciously unleash some our O scheme wear we will see how bad or good it is going o be. In the 4th game he will need to get off the field as soon as possible and I hope that luck effort delivers an early score for him to do that.

 

i would not be surprised if Nall is our #2, but he good news for us is if he takes it because he is good not him winning it because KH is bad.

 

As far as KH, I think it;s great to have a former NFL starter and player who has had some success in a playoff game be your disaster QB. i see little need capwise or time wise if he is 3rd string to see us cut JP. I hope that Nall earns the back-up job and I will be quite happy to have KH getting as much PT as Shane Matthews for this squad. i do not see why a Bills fan would want to cut him instead of having him be out disaster QB. We will not use the cap room even if we have it and if he is #3 he takes zero time from the starter.

 

Many thanks for your analysis and taking the time to share it with all!

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Holy Batman Bills fans, this thread sure beats Holcomb vs. Losman threads.

 

Keep it up. Nothing like some good insight from Bills fans.

[ROSCOE P. COE TRAIN]

Good report. Fair, honest. It will be interesting to contrast this report with next games. The change in certain players will be great, as it always is. Some will appear and others will disapear. The camp darling Williams looked like a freak. But can he take the pressure of the 1st unit.

[MadBuffaloDisease]

Interesting that Williams and Denney have moved-up in he depth chart to starting spots, but Preston or Gibson haven't at RG.

[Tasker]

I commented on this in another post, and I think your assessment is dead on. I thought this was JP's best play of the night, and a great throw. I'm glad we have Aiken showing good things, because I am down on Price and Reed.

 

- JP makes a miraculous escape (it was on Preston’t first series when he stepped on Fowler and interior protection broke down, really the only time the entire first half aside from a couple Villarrial near misses) to buy himself extra time and finds Veerless with a step on the nickleback. He leads him enough and all Hairless has to do is establish position (on an already beaten guy who’s been covering for 6.8 seconds) and come back to his QB (like he’s supposed to) and the Bills convert 3rd down on a stellar play by a young QB. Is that what Rearless does? No, he shies away from the minimal contact and allows the DB to take away position instead of coming back to Losman. Then he continues heading toward the sideline and away from Losman and doesn’t even make a legitimate effort to prevent the pick.

[ConradDobler]

Peter's took most of the media blame for it but watching the Holcomb sack, it’s hard for me to pin the fault on Peters. It’s a zone blitz that’s coming at a balanced 4 WR set, leaving us 6 blockers. Our FB is on the right side of the play but when a Panther LB and DB break inside to overload our line Shelton jumps the inside while Peters does what he’s surely supposed to do in getting a shoulder in the DE and passing him up- over the top- where the FB should be to take the second shot at him. Villarial gets in front of the blitzing LB while Shelton chooses a guy 45 pounds lighter and stops the DB.  The reality is that if Shelton does what the play is almost surely designed to do by getting in front of Peppers who’s already been chipped effectively, Peter's ends up properly keeping the second blitzer out of the backfield and Holcomb is given the time necessary to exploit the passing zone behind the Carolina DE who’s dropped on the right of their line. It looks like we have exactly the right set and spacing to protect against this blitz, yet Shelton's error blows the whole thing up and allows the media to leave the impression Peters did something wrong.

743714[/snapback]

I've only got VHS EP speed here to watch this, but isn't there an open receiver just a bit downfield from where Peppers vacated, that could have both taken an easy thrown pass over (Peppers) head, and negated the pass rush to boot if KH had only looked to his right?

[Simon]

but the one play where I really noticed them was that third and short (I think it was in the 2nd quarter, but I'm not sure) when they both pulled around to the right,

 

Yeah, that was Reyes that lost body control and ended up on the ground when he tried to cut the 'backer and missed. It was one of the couple plays that made me tack on a cautionary note about his struggle to hit moving targets.

I wouldn't take it as representative of the night though as I remember thinking to myself that they were working very well together.

 

Well, he didn't call him Gutless or Shapeless or crayonzless or Sightless.

 

Only because those base prefixes don't rhyme with Peer.

And I wouldn't have disparaged the frequentlyfunny crayonz w/ such a comparison.

 

how much Williams was on the ground - that is one thing I noticed - but he did get up quick a number of times. I'd like to see him keep his feet more often - I'm not so sure he wants getting off the ground w/ inhuman 2nd effort to make plays be his signature move.....

 

I thought about knocking him for it, but I didn't have a problem because of the savvy way he did it. A good DLine coach will teach his guys that if they're losing the leverage battle that it can be the right play to get on the ground and make a pile before they get pushed out of the play. Williams plays real low anyways and the times he did go down didi't seem to me to be as much accidents as a smart player trying to make a pile in the right place so he could at least insinuate hjimself into the play even if he didn't win his battle on that snap.

 

I know this defense is about quickly getting into gaps - it just seemed to me though that at times they were not 'wreaking havoc' by jumping into a gap/backfield, merely getting pushed/led out of the play. I may be totally off base.

 

No I think you're right on the money and I also think both of us would be better off getting used to it. The Bills defensive front is going to be playing a lot of boom or bust type ball this year and every once in a while you're going to see the DLine heading upfield parting like the Red Sea while a pair of interior linemen draw beads on exposed LB's. Hopefully having 3 very good LB's is going to bail us out when it happens.

 

I really didn't like Shaud back there returning kicks. To me he showed no burst or threat at all.

Yeah, I like him way better in the backfield and we have better options. I think it may have been a staff who really likes his game looking for as many ways as it can to keep him around and use him.

 

when he (JP)was talking about the balls going in the dirt being about 'technique'

 

I didn't have as much a problem with a couple of those throws that many others seemed to have. One he was trying to keep low and away from a closing CB and Reed didn't do him any favors, another he may have been Aiken's fault for not settling down in the clear part of the zone(where the ball appropriately went) quicker and Sam didn't do him any favors by not playing the ball well, another was not close to the WR but it was right at the sticks on 3rddown and made me wonder if Reed's route wasn't as good as it could have been. It's hard to know for sure w/o being on the team, but I mostly read it as a QB not having good timing with his WR corps due to limited live action and having to share snaps. I'm really happy to hear that teh decision has essentially been made and Losman is getting the bulk of the work. Here's hoping it manifests itself on the field in a couple weeks.

 

did you notice Gibson at all? Someone else asked about this - I don't remember noticing him in there.

 

I haven't watched the 2ndhalf yet but Preston was the only non-starter to play in the 1st.

 

He's not an inaccurate passer. He's a jittery passer.

 

That may be the most apt description I've read re: the development

of Losman's accuracy.

 

Peter's took most of the media blame for it but watching the Holcomb sack, it’s hard for me to pin the fault on Peters.

 

I agree with that. Aside from there being other guy(s) that didn't co-ordinate well Holcomb shouldn't have been holding the ball that long in that down/distance, particularly when he should have recognized the blitz well before he hit his drop.

 

I was impressed with his ability to sidestep the pressure but stay in the pocket against Carolina.

 

No doubt, Jay. Buying extra time while staying in the pocket is real hard for nervous young QB's and it's reeeeeal nice to see him doing and delivering 1stdowns as a result.

 

Did you notice Everett at all from a blocking standpoint?

Honestly I didn't very much. I didn't write any of the TE's names down when I started and the only mental note I can remember re: Everett was that I wasn't real impressed with his execution but that he was stronger than I expected him to be.

 

He absolutely punished #15 from Carolina a few times on kick-offs to the point where he was starting to look gun shy. He nailed him on the first kick and never let up after that.

I didn't watch any of the ST's and am thrilled to hear that about him. I wouldn't go so far as to call him a "dirty player" (that accolade will come later if he can light guys up while drawing penalties;-) but it was fairly obvious that he had no qualms about mixing it up in the offensive sets. He put a couple DB's on their wallets during the whistle's echo.....

isn't there an open receiver just a bit downfield from where Peppers vacated, that could have both taken an easy thrown pass over (Peppers) head, and negated the pass rush to boot if KH had only looked to his right?

It's possible and I'll look at it again tomorrow, but my guess is that it would have been a sucker's throw. Good co-ordinators are too smart to allow teh area from which a blitzer has vacated to be teh right answer. Chances are there was a defender rolling into that zone hoping to jump a pass thrown by a QB who thought he saw open field.

 

As usual many thanks for a detailed look and some provactive comments

I'm going to have to get to you tomorrow as it's bedtime for bonzo.....

[krazykat]

Good post. Great breakdown of that Price not coming back to the QB play. It stood out in the game but I hadn't heard one writer mention it.

 

Don't agree with some of your line comments. Williams looked good but let's not overreact to one preseason game. If continues that throughout the preaseason then there may be hope for the regular season. We've had our hopes dashed so often that it's easy to not get fooled again. He looks solid though which doesn't say much for the McCargo pick. McCargo should be looking like that.

 

Also agree that the O problems seemed more skill position related. So why did we pay Price that much then? A Levy blunder? Price can't be cut, he just got a sizeable bonus. He's also not getting any younger. Reed too.

[Dibs]

Don't agree with some of your line comments.  Williams looked good but let's not overreact to one preseason game.  If continues that throughout the preaseason then there may be hope for the regular season.  We've had our hopes dashed so often that it's easy to not get fooled again.  He looks solid though which doesn't say much for the McCargo pick.  McCargo should be looking like that. 

744401[/snapback]

That's hypocritical.

"....let's not overreact to one preseason game."

[34-78-83]

So why did we pay Price that much then?  A Levy blunder?  Price can't be cut, he just got a sizeable bonus.  He's also not getting any younger.  Reed too.

744401[/snapback]

 

Simon's love for Price is well known around here

 

After seeing him back here again live and on tv it's clear to me what you're going to get. He's not your "complete" all around receiver. You're not going to be necessarily happy with his blocking, or apparently his desire to come back to the ball after a route is run and the qb stil has the ball. What you will see is very good hands, good route running, along with good quickness and speed. He has caught everything thrown his way in camp so far, and we'll see how it all translates soon enough. From what I saw he should be the #2 WR hands down, even considering he is not "complete".