A look at the Carolina game

[Simon]

OK, so I taped the game and then spent some time doing film work. I didn’t do the entire game, nor did I do every part of the field. I just wanted to get some closer looks at guys I wasn’t familiar with and positions that I think are going to be real defining factors in how the Bills season turns out. So without further ado, here goes:

 

Melvin Fowler: Aside from the Teague’s one very good year at Center we haven’t had a legitimate player at the pivot since Kent Hull hung ‘em up. That’s an obsecenely long dry spell and one which may be nearing an end.

I really liked what I saw from Fowler and found myself regularly trying to tamp down my enthusiasm while watching tape. He moves well and can really get out on the pull. He also uses his hands well and really seemed to show good field awareness, smoothly and succesfully handling a variety of Panther twists and blitzes. Perhaps my favorite thing about his game was that he was much stronger than I expected him to be; not only did he hold ground in protection really well but he fired off the LOS with good power and several times created good surge in the interior of the Bills line. The only mistake I saw him make the entire half was an ugly stumble in protection as a result of Preston stepping on him in Duke’s first series.

I hope I’m not overreacting to seeing adequate play at the Bills center after so many years of seeing poor play there, but watching Fowler I thought to myself that if he continues to play the way he did in Carolina, center is not going to be a weak spot for the Bills this year. Finally.

 

Tuten Reyes: Even more so than Center, the Bills guards have been brutal lately with pukes like Jamie Nails and Bennie Anderson making us sick to our stomachs on a regular basis. And just like with Fowler, I found myself having to tamp down my excitement at seeing somebody actually play the position with competence.

For a big boy, Reyes moves very well. The timing on the pulls isn’t there yet for the unit but you could still see his ability to get down the line in a hurry. He also flashed some instincts with a some heady adjustments to chaging conditions during the play. My favorite thing about him though was that it was obvious that this cat really likes to ball. If he was on the other side of the trench, y’all would be whipping out the “high motor” jokes. Great enthusiasm and always hunting up somebody for the entire play no matter where he was on the field. At one point a Carolina stunt left him unengaged so he stepped over and just blasted the DT who Fowler was working and then pivoted right back into his lane; a mean, nasty move executed with great precision and bad intention.

While he did pull well, he did not finish very well when he was on the move. Seemed to have a little trouble hitting moving targets and missed a couple blocks because of it. When he loses body control he tends to try and cut guys (from the front) but doesn’t excel at it.

Overall I was real happy with the way he played the game, mentally and emotionally. Physically he was better than what we’ve been putting up with at LG for a seemingly long time. Like with Fowler, I came away thinking that if he continues to play that way, the Bills might be OK at LG.

 

Time for some bad news:

I had no intention of taking notes re: Villarial or even mentioning him but he was sooooo bad that it cannot pass without saying. It wasn’t the kind of typical veteran ¾ speed strollthrough you might expect from an old saw in the pre-season; it was way way worse. He couldn’t move, he showed little power, he was in everybody’s way and he realy hurt the offense. The staff finally took him out at the end of the 1stqrtr (he was the only starting OL to not play the entire half), and things improved instantly when Preston came in. I like Villarrial cuz he’s a tough smart pro’s pro as well as a fellow Pennsyltuckian, but I’m worried that the mileage of 150 pro football games has finally caught up with him and his body just won’t do what he wants it to anymore. Unless he shows marked improvement, he’s going to lose his job to Preston or worse.

OK, back to the good:

I didn’t intend to take notes or mention Peters either but I gotta say something; the kid looked the best OLinemen on either team. Yeah, I know he tackled Peppers (which was the right instinct, btw) but it was virtually the only mistake he made all night. And you just can’t believe how much the Bills are asking of him and how well he’s handling it. If he took 30 snaps Saturday, he might have blocked 45 guys(OK, 44 guys and 1 tackle). His protection was OK, but in the ground game he was just shivering guys like he had a cattle prod in his sleeve and then coming off and burying somebody else. I can’t believe this kid is still learning to play Tackle and already dominating people this way. Did he sign an extension in the offseason cuz I really want to see him with McNally for a some more years.

 

John McCargo:

Not bad but nothing special. He’s got decent feet and I liked the way he used his hands. He showed some functional strength and played hard enough to belong out there. He flashed some upfield quickness off the snap a couple times and usually stayed upright regularly enough to be somewhat of a factor on most plays. His game actually reminded me of Triplett’s at times, and I guess that’s a good thing since I wanted the Bills to draft Larry.

 

Kyle Williams:

Holy !@#$.

I’m just going to agree with most everything everybody else has said so when he never has another game like that again, I’ll look like slightly less of an idiot. Ahhh, forget that.

That boy was unblockable. He played a lot of snaps and I don’t think I saw him beat by a single three times. He was just abusing whoever he was man-up with and when Carolina started throwing doubles at him, he was even beating some of those too. What a great combination of tenacity and craft he displayed and I coldn’t even guess when the last time, if ever, I saw a 5thround rookie look that polished. I might give him a little grief for ending up on the ground too often, but even when he went down, he was smart enough to go down exactly where he was supposed to go and take somebody with him. Nobody is going to call him an extraordinary athlete but when you have a guy who’s that relentless AND executes with that much savvy, it can be a highly effective combination.

 

Odds ‘n’ Ends:

 

- Royal is not a very skilled blocker, but I’ll give him credit for being a very eager blocker. Sometimes that’s enough and sometimes it isn’t.

- Duke Preston looked very solid but he still bends at the waist at times. It’s not the end of the world and he’s still probably the 2ndbest guard on the team, but he could address it.

- I thought the offenses early struggles to move the ball belonged more at the feet of the skill players than the OLine. I was actually pleasantly surprised at how well they worked as a unit, more so once Preston ahd played a series. Carolina was rushing 6 at times and used a limited package of twists and stunts and the Bills OLine handled it very well. Blitzing lanes were closed off, guys passed rushers off to each other smoothly, there were limited penalties against a great DLine and they even showed some easurable surge in the run game a few times. An unexpectedly good showing, imo.

- Denney got most of the props, but I thought Kelsay played well also. The Bills got very good play out of the LDE spot until #63 staggered out there. I had no idea who it was til now when I just looked it up and realized they cut him already(my two game notes say “good play from LDE(until 63)” and then later on “63LDE is gone”:-). He really didn’t belong out there and is likely done in this league.

- One knock on Denney is that it was his tough TFL that hurt Bowen. And I liked what I was seeing from Bowen. At least I liked him in the box since the only place he was because the Panthers never bothered running interior route combinations for some reason.

- Lee Evans and Willis both appeared to show more willingness to block than they have at times in the past.

- Anthony Thomas had better show more willingness to block if he wants to make this team.

- I enjoy watching Gates dip the shoulder and agree with most that he’s a solid back, but I’m nowhere near ready for him to supplant Shaud who I consider very underappreciated.

- I had forgot how much I enjoyed watching London Fletcher play and Crowell looks as good as my very fond memories of him from last year; no disrespect to Haggans, but when Takeo comes back this is going to be a very, very physical LB corps. Very physical.

- Speaking of physical, Sam Aiken has a bit of a mean streak doesn’t he?

- It didn’t take Gearless long to show why I wish he’d just go away. JP makes a miraculous escape (it was on Preston’t first series when he stepped on Fowler and interior protection broke down, really the only time the entire first half aside from a couple Villarrial near misses) to buy himself extra time and finds Veerless with a step on the nickleback. He leads him enough and all Hairless has to do is establish position (on an already beaten guy who’s been covering for 6.8 seconds) and come back to his QB (like he’s supposed to) and the Bills convert 3rd down on a stellar play by a young QB. Is that what Rearless does? No, he shies away from the minimal contact and allows the DB to take away position instead of coming back to Losman. Then he continues heading toward the sideline and away from Losman and doesn’t even make a legitimate effort to prevent the pick. Careless has created more turnovers than touchdowns in his career and I wish the Bills would just eat that stupid bonus and get a dedicated young player on the field.

- If teh Bills' Oline has the same run of bad luck as last year, the season is over. The only depth at Tackle is McFarland who was just awful until I saw some improvement during an NFLEurope game over the summer(did I mention it was Europe?). Geisinger is backing up Fowler and a cursory viewing of the 2ndhalf left me with the impression that he looked like complete shlt at the pivot. If Vilarrial is done, we suddenly have 0 depth at Guard as well. At some point some guys will miss a game or two, and when they do it's likely going ot hurt. Badly.

- Imo (which will most certainly be ridiculed), Carolina’s opening drive meant absolutely nothing. The Bills ran a base defense with no shifting, blitzing, pressing or anything until the next to last play of that drive. Carolina knew both corners were just going to hang back and not give up anything up top, so instead of working on their offense they apparently just decided to play pitch and catch in the space that everybody knew would be there on the first series of the first preseason game. Frankly, Carolina really didn’t do itself any favors and it really didn’t help or hurt the Bills at all since it bore no resemblence to what they’re going to be running in the regular season. It was a meaningless giveaway drive that the Panthers accepted so everybody would have something to feel good about. Big whoop.

-As the half progressed the Bills did eventually bust out some of their deefnsive playbook, some overload blitzing and a couple zone blitzes created confusion and Carolina really didn’t get much going except for a couple OK runs against a Bills nickle.

-You thought I wasn’t going to mention QB’s, eh? It’s all over but the change in reps, Losman is the Bills starter and it’s not even close. In fact, I hope the Bills cut ties with Holcomb tomorrow and get another young guy in here while it’s still relatively early in August. I’m not going to rag on Holcombe cuz he seems like a nice guy and he’s entertained me with some aggressive play in the past. But he’s done and right now he’s just playing out the string. He never had a great toolbox to begin with and his body has just reached the point where it can’t play QB in the NFL any more. I think he knows it and at this point he’s just trying to pad the bank account while staying healthy and employed for as long as he can. More power to him as I’d be doing the same, but he’s not an asset to this organization at this point in time. Considering that he’s taking up a valuable toster spot and that he might even be a hindrance to Losman’s development, I’d say not only is he not an asset, but he may well be a liabilityif he's costing Losman reps and timing with his WR's.. If the Bills can’t find a young guy whose upside they like to take his roster spot, the leat they could do is placate the fans by bringing in somebody who’s fun to watch. Joe Hamilton would be fun in a Bills uni for a year or two and he’d come a lot cheaper. C’mon Marv and Modrak, just cut the string and give Holcombe a chance to move on and the Bills a chance to pay for potential instead of memories.

 

Wow, that was long and it's really freaking late. Damned Vicodin.......

[plenzmd1]

Wow, excellant post. I agree with so many of your assessments, although I only watch the game on TIVO, and not truly break it down. Two things in particlular caught my eye. Your take on the Peerless play was my take to the tee. Dam, when i rewound that play a couple of times just get getting more and more pissed at how a pro receiver could make(not make i should say) that play.

 

Also, I wasn't upset bout the first drive either. My feelings exectly on Bills playing base, no game planning for Carolina, and one lucky ass catch that could have been picked, and the TD pass that Jake, and I'll give him credit for this, squezed between three guys, and if friggen Crowell was an inch higher would have had. But still, nice throw, but I wasn't overly concerned.

 

Regarding the O-line, glad to see it wasn't just me who thought Villareal played horribly. Also, I prolly didn't think peters played as well as you did, but again I did not break down every play. BTW, loved his instinct to pull Pepppers down, good penalty in my eyes.

[Coach Tuesday]

Good post, thx for the analysis. One question - was Chris V the reason the Bills couldn't get the running game going on the opening drive?

[eball]

Nice post Simon...thx for the film work.

[cåblelady]

I think Simon needs to find a few more nicknames for Peerless.

 

BTW....very good read.

[dib]

P.S. Word (63) is gone- he was released yesterday.

[cåblelady]

P.S. Word (63) is gone- he was released yesterday.

743587[/snapback]

Word.

[Simon]

Word. 

743589[/snapback]

 

Mark my?

 

One question - was Chris V the reason the Bills couldn't get the running game going on the opening drive?

Going from spotty memory, I thought on the opening drive Willis had a couple 3yrd carries and the Bills found themselves in a very manageable 3rddown. Then Carolina overloaded their pass rush on the left side and got a sack when Holcomb didn't step up into the pocket and held the ball longer than he should have in that down/distance. Later I'll try and take a peek at Willis' carries again and see what happened.

[Last Guy on the Bench]

Great read. Thanks.

 

As for tackle depth, have a look at Butler at RT in the second half and let us know what you think. I watched him pretty closely on a number of plays. I thought the combo of Butler and Preston looked pretty good, but I'm an OL ignoramus, so I don't put much stock in my own opinion.

 

Also, I'm glad you like Fowler and Reyes, but the one play where I really noticed them was that third and short (I think it was in the 2nd quarter, but I'm not sure) when they both pulled around to the right, had two linebacker types in their sights making the play look like it was going to work great, and then both got completely blown up. One of them, I forget which one, pretty much just fell down when he tried to pick up the moving LB. That worried me. Anyway . . .

[ch19079]

K. Williams....

 

Who si this guy. They were calling his name a lot. He also played a lot in the first half. if he can do what he did in a real game, i would love to see him in there on running downs, or even start if McCargo isnt ready.

[Beerball]

I think Simon needs to find a few more nicknames for Peerless. 

 

BTW....very good read.

743586[/snapback]

Well, he didn't call him Gutless or Shapeless or crayonzless or Sightless. I don't even think he called him Speedless, so there is room for improvement.

 

Nice recap Simon, thanks.

[RuntheDamnBall]

Nice wrap, Simon. I'd like to see Price do better and make the team, but you're right, his performance this last time didn't bode well. I'd say he and possibly Davis are on thin ice. Obviously, three games left and time to turn things around.

 

You'd figure Aiken has got to be a lock, though I don't know how things have been looking in practice.

[Fan in Chicago]

K. Williams....

 

Who si this guy. They were calling his name a lot. He also played a lot in the first half. if he can do what he did in a real game, i would love to see him in there on running downs, or even start if McCargo isnt ready.

743643[/snapback]

 

He is our rookie 5th round draft pick. Sweet ain't it ?

[ganesh]

Nice wrap, Simon.  I'd like to see Price do better and make the team, but you're right, his performance this last time didn't bode well.  I'd say he and possibly Davis are on thin ice.  Obviously, three games left and time to turn things around.

 

You'd figure Aiken has got to be a lock, though I don't know how things have been looking in practice.

743651[/snapback]

 

I think both Josh Reed and Peerless Price will be on this team, just for the

fact that both received a 2.5M signing bonus, and cutting either one will

accelarate the cap-hit this year by that amount.

[MDH]

K. Williams....

 

Who si this guy. They were calling his name a lot. He also played a lot in the first half. if he can do what he did in a real game, i would love to see him in there on running downs, or even start if McCargo isnt ready.

743643[/snapback]

 

He doesn't play the same position as McCargo, if he started it would be over Anderson. That being said I'm not sure it really matters who will get the start as it looks like they're going to substitute liberally to keep the DL fresh.

[stevewin]

Thnx Simon. I was a mile up in the stands and every once in a while tried to focus on the DL. You are the first person I've seen mention how much Williams was on the ground - that is one thing I noticed - but he did get up quick a number of times. I'd like to see him keep his feet more often - I'm not so sure he wants getting off the ground w/ inhuman 2nd effort to make plays be his signature move....

 

I seemed to remember the DTs switching back and forth a lot between "1 technique" and 3. I guess it may have been them trying out personnel at different positions, but it almost seemed like part of the defensive scheme at times (same personnel, just switching positions). Also - a few times I thought I noticed the DTs blasting into a hole a la Sam Adams only at times to seemingly be led that way and pushed off the play (a la Sam Adams). I know this defense is about quickly getting into gaps - it just seemed to me though that at times they were not 'wreaking havoc' by jumping into a gap/backfield, merely getting pushed/led out of the play. I may be totally off base.

 

I really didn't like Shaud back there returning kicks. To me he showed no burst or threat at all.

 

I think Aiken is the real deal - when I saw him at two practices he really impressed me both times. He was getting his body in front of defenders (sometimes adjusting in the air), and going out and catching the ball with his hands away from the defender. From what I saw he was more valuable than Davis (we already have Evans and Roscoe to stretch defenses - don't we need a couple receivers who can be counted on to make the tough catches over the middle and move the chains?). I will give Davis credit though - one time I noticed he was the gunner on a kickoff so I made a point to watch him and damned if he didn't fight his way right through the initial blocks and blast right across the field to make first contact.

 

I do remember the first time I saw Denney on the field I made a mental note - and he seemed to just wreak some havoc on subsequent plays.

 

IMO JP still has a lot of work to do. Hopefully it will all come together in the next few weeks. It kind of amazes me - when he was talking about the balls going in the dirt being about 'technique' - how the hell can you play QB your whole life, in Div I and then be a 1st round draft choice - and have two years of coaching in the pros, and still not instinctively plant your foot the right way to not throw a simple out patttern into the dirt. I just don't get that. That stuff should just be automatic by now - and I don't think a QB should need a full 16 game season under his belt to be able to execute those plays.

 

Oh - re: OL depth - did you notice Gibson at all? Someone else asked about this - I don't remember noticing him in there.

[Kelly the Dog]

 

I seemed to remember the DTs switching back and forth a lot between "1 technique" and 3.  I guess it may have been them trying out personnel at different positions, but it almost seemed like part of the defensive scheme at times (same personnel, just switching positions).  Also - a few times I thought I noticed the DTs blasting into a hole a la Sam Adams only at times to seemingly be led that way and pushed off the play (a la Sam Adams).  I know this defense is about quickly getting into gaps - it just seemed to me though that at times they were not 'wreaking havoc' by jumping into a gap/backfield, merely getting pushed/led out of the play.  I may be totally off base. 

 

I really didn't like Shaud back there returning kicks.  To me he showed no burst or threat at all.

 

I think Aiken is the real deal - when I saw him at two practices he really impressed me both times.  He was getting his body in front of defenders (sometimes adjusting in the air), and going out and catching the ball with his hands away from the defender.  From what I saw he was more valuable than Davis (we already have Evans and Roscoe to stretch defenses - don't we need a couple receivers who can be counted on to make the tough catches over the middle and move the chains?).  I will give Davis credit though - one time I noticed he was the gunner on a kickoff and damned if he didn't fight his way right through the initial blocks and blast right across the field to make first contact.

 

IMO JP still has a lot of work to do.  Hopefully it will all come together in the next few weeks.  It kind of amazes me - when he was talking about the balls going in the dirt being about 'technique' - how the hell can you play QB your whole life, in Div I and then be a 1st round draft choice - and have two years of coaching in the pros, and still not instinctively plant your foot the right way to not throw a simple out patttern into the dirt.  I just don't get that.  That stuff should just be automatic by now - and I don't think a QB should need a full 16 game season under his belt to be able to execute those plays.

743699[/snapback]

1. Get used to the DTs busting through the line and looking like that all year, often getting easily pushed out of the way. That is how they're going to play. It's a little riskier and requires the other players all to be doing their jobs. But I think if we give up about 4 yards a crack (I'm not saying we will or won't, just using it as an example), it's very likely going to be -3, 5, -1, 9 rather than 3, 4, 3, 5

 

2. I think we're going to have to keep 6 WRs. Last year we kept an unheardof 7. Each guy does something different. Aiken likely secured a spot with that game. I think Fast Freddie is unfortunately gone, as well as Wilson although maybe we can get him on the PS. I now think we're going with Evans, PP, Reed, Parrish, Davis, Aiken, and they will be interchangeable to show different looks.

 

3. Shaud won't be returning kicks so you won't have to worry about that.

 

4. JP was talking about he had to learn new footwork from Fairchild. So what he was doing in the misfires was using half the new things he learned but forgetting to add the new footwork in, and using his old style, so it screwed him up. After the first few throws he settled down, didn't have as much swimming around in his head, and then applied the new techniques in the footwork he was taught this year and he fared much better. That's the kind of stuff we need to see that will come with reps and game experience. He needs to just have stuff down by experience, and when it all works and he's only focused on making the right reads, his great physical gifts will allow him to make the good throw. He's not an inaccurate passer. He's a jittery passer.

[AKC]

I didn’t intend to take notes or mention Peters either but I gotta say something; the kid looked the best OLinemen on either team. Yeah, I know he tackled Peppers (which was the right instinct, btw) but it was virtually the only mistake he made all night. And you just can’t believe how much the Bills are asking of him and how well he’s handling it. If he took 30 snaps Saturday, he might have blocked 45 guys(OK, 44 guys and 1 tackle). His protection was OK, but in the ground game he was just shivering guys like he had a cattle prod in his sleeve and then coming off and burying somebody else. I can’t believe this kid is still learning to play Tackle and already dominating people this way. Did he sign an extension in the offseason cuz I really want to see him with McNally for a some more years.

 

743562[/snapback]

 

 

Peter's took most of the media blame for it but watching the Holcomb sack, it’s hard for me to pin the fault on Peters. It’s a zone blitz that’s coming at a balanced 4 WR set, leaving us 6 blockers. Our FB is on the right side of the play but when a Panther LB and DB break inside to overload our line Shelton jumps the inside while Peters does what he’s surely supposed to do in getting a shoulder in the DE and passing him up- over the top- where the FB should be to take the second shot at him. Villarial gets in front of the blitzing LB while Shelton chooses a guy 45 pounds lighter and stops the DB. The reality is that if Shelton does what the play is almost surely designed to do by getting in front of Peppers who’s already been chipped effectively, Peter's ends up properly keeping the second blitzer out of the backfield and Holcomb is given the time necessary to exploit the passing zone behind the Carolina DE who’s dropped on the right of their line. It looks like we have exactly the right set and spacing to protect against this blitz, yet Shelton's error blows the whole thing up and allows the media to leave the impression Peters did something wrong.

 

 

- It didn’t take Gearless long to show why I wish he’d just go away. JP makes a miraculous escape (it was on Preston’t first series when he stepped on Fowler and interior protection broke down, really the only time the entire first half aside from a couple Villarrial near misses) to buy himself extra time and finds Veerless with a step on the nickleback. He leads him enough and all Hairless has to do is establish position (on an already beaten guy who’s been covering for 6.8 seconds) and come back to his QB (like he’s supposed to) and the Bills convert 3rd down on a stellar play by a young QB. Is that what Rearless does? No, he shies away from the minimal contact and allows the DB to take away position instead of coming back to Losman. Then he continues heading toward the sideline and away from Losman and doesn’t even make a legitimate effort to prevent the pick. Careless has created more turnovers than touchdowns in his career and I wish the Bills would just eat that stupid bonus and get a dedicated young player on the field.

 

743562[/snapback]

 

Sign me up. I had exactly the same reaction to his pathetic feign at helping Losman out after the good hustle JP'd shown to get some room to throw, and staying on the lateral route to avoid contact instead of coming up to earn the football proves this guy is the same punk who has always been barely tough enough to play flag football.

[JÂy RÛßeÒ]

He's not an inaccurate passer. He's a jittery passer.

743705[/snapback]

Apparently less so this year. I was impressed with his ability to sidestep the pressure but stay in the pocket against Carolina. He wasn't looking to run if his first read wasn't there. However, on one occasion he stepped up past 3 rushers but then waited too long to get rid of the ball and they came back from behind on him. That timing will come with reps.

[RuntheDamnBall]

how the hell can you play QB your whole life, in Div I and then be a 1st round draft choice - and have two years of coaching in the pros, and still not instinctively plant your foot the right way to not throw a simple out patttern into the dirt.  I just don't get that.

743699[/snapback]

Ask Kelly Holcomb (besides the first round pick part, but adding years in the pros).