Rank Speculation

[Mickey]

I have nothing to base this on but my ability to overthink a simple situation and still get it wrong.

 

Here is the hypothesis: The opening schedule this year is pretty tough, opening on the road against New England and Miami. Now I hate to throw in the towel before the games are even played but even so, I see an 0-2 start as being far more likely than 2-0 start. If that happens and we do drop the first two, who is likely to get the blame for that? Probably the starting QB. If JP is the guy, or if you want him to be on the learning curve this year, is it not maybe better to start Holcomb?

 

It would then play out that Holcomb gets pulled after two losses to start the season and JP is inserted as the new starter against the Jets in the home opener. Now that is a game I expect we will win. It would be the reverse of last year, with all the pressure on Holcomb rather than young JP. As the rest of the season progresses and JP has some bad games as he inevitably will, no one in the locker room will have an argument that KH should start. You can just point to those first two games and silence any argument that KH would be any better. From that Jet game on, JP becomes the undisputed starter both in terms of fan support and in the locker room.

 

If you go the other way, by the Jet game with the team at 0-2, there will be thoughts, rumors, grumblings, etc., that KH should get a shot given JP's 0-2 start. Same scenario we had last year. If you do give KH the start against the Jets and we win that game, then again, you have an instant replay of last year. You have that same rotten choice between having a better chance to win or training JP for the future.

 

The only drawback here is if the team wins those first two games but if that happens, then maybe we should be starting KH anyway. Hard to think of being

2-0 as a disaster.

 

There it is. Let KH be the one to have the confidence of the team and the fans shaken by a pair of losses to open the sesason and let JP be the guy who comes off the bench with nothing to lose against the lowly Jets, at home. A win there will silence doubters in and out of the locker room and buy JP some breathing room. At that point, with the KH option already shown to be a dead end, there will be no reason for anyone to wonder, as JP struggles here and there, "could we have won that game if KH was playing?"

 

Rank speculation I know but I would hate to see JP get the start, drop two at the beginning of the season and then have to keep his self confidence as the locker room gumbling begins.

[Mark VI]

I see Mularkey is hacking into peoples accounts.

[LevysEraII]

I know where you're coming from, but I'm sorry to say that is a loser's mentality.

[Beerball]

I rank this speculation as 2 out of 10.

[stuckincincy]

I have nothing to base this on but my ability to overthink a simple situation and still get it wrong.

 

Here is the hypothesis: ...

740566[/snapback]

 

Well, it's a spiffy piece of ratiocination.

[Mickey]

I know where you're coming from, but I'm sorry to say that is a loser's mentality.

740572[/snapback]

I agree that making decisions based on anticipating losing the first two games is a losing mentality. However, in a slightly different form, that is often the basis I have heard for the idea that we should start JP all 16 games no matter what. My response to that has been that JP should get the nod and there should not be a quick hook. We should stick with him and re-evaluate him down the road, maybe by week 8, to see where we stand.

 

The response to that position has been that finding out what we have in JP is more important than winning this year because the sad fact is that we are not going to win this year. Since we aren't going anywhere anyway we should committ the whole season to starting JP come hell or high water for all 16 games.

 

I have debated this with quite a few people on the board in other threads and they have made some very good points justifying their position that JP should start and start for all 16 games regardless of winning or losing. Rather than debate it anymore, I thought I would just take their position another step in the same direction. Besides, I have to do something to occupy myself until opening day finally arrives.

[Mickey]

I see Mularkey is hacking into peoples accounts.

740567[/snapback]

It is the psychology of success. Set JP up in a "can't-lose" situation rather than in a "can't-win" situation. For the sake of argument, assume JP starts the first two weeks and we get our hats handed to us on the road in NE and Miami. Going in to week three and the home opener, what would you guess would be JP's confidence level and attitude? Do you think at that point we would have more or less of a QB controversey? Do you think there would be more or less grumbling in the locker room to give Holcomb a shot?

 

This is not a point I will defend to the death, I'm just having fun trying to project the possible outcomes and what would be best in terms of developing JP and getting the team behind him.

[ROSCOE P. COE TRAIN]

I have nothing to base this on but my ability to overthink a simple situation and still get it wrong.

 

================================

 

 

 

I think we got to start JP. The future is now, Either this guy steps up and show signs, or he never will. HE had a year to test himself out. His confidence has to be assisted. He had a personal coach SAm Wyche baby him. It is now JP's time to sink or swim. We aint going to win many games anyway, so expectation are low, adn he could learn the game well with such a team. young club can all battle together with marv's new draftees. KH creates an air that we are trying to compete and think we can beat miami or the Pats. I can't see that by any stretch. THus, i think we should grow and build and let JP run the ship. TO sell tickets, the front office will never admit this plan. ANd the average vets on the club are there to simply guide the youngsters.

 

this club is 3 rds away. we play JP now ...

[The Senator]

I rank this speculation as 2 out of 10.

740620[/snapback]

On a scale of one to ten, I'd say it's about average.

[Pyrite Gal]

I have nothing to base this on but my ability to overthink a simple situation and still get it wrong.

 

Here is the hypothesis:  The opening schedule this year is pretty tough, opening on the road against New England and Miami.  Now I hate to throw in the towel before the games are even played but even so, I see an 0-2 start as being far more likely than 2-0 start.  If that happens and we do drop the first two, who is likely to get the blame for that?  Probably the starting QB.  If JP is the guy, or if you want him to be on the learning curve this year, is it not maybe better to start Holcomb?

 

It would then play out that Holcomb gets pulled after two losses to start the season and JP is inserted as the new starter against the Jets in the home opener.  Now that is a game I expect we will win.  It would be the reverse of last year, with all the pressure on Holcomb rather than young JP.  As the rest of the season progresses and JP has some bad games as he inevitably will, no one in the locker room will have an argument that KH should start.  You can just point to those first two games and silence any argument that KH would be any better.  From that Jet game on, JP becomes the undisputed starter both in terms of fan support and in the locker room.

 

If you go the other way, by the Jet game with the team at 0-2, there will be thoughts, rumors, grumblings, etc., that KH should get a shot given JP's 0-2 start.  Same scenario we had last year.  If you do give KH the start against the Jets and we win that game, then again, you have an instant replay of last year.  You have that same rotten choice between having a better chance to win or training JP for the future.

 

The only drawback here is if the team wins those first two games but if that happens, then maybe we should be starting KH anyway.  Hard to think of being

2-0 as a disaster.

 

There it is.  Let KH be the one to have the confidence of the team and the fans shaken by a pair of losses to open the sesason and let JP be the guy who comes off the bench with nothing to lose against the lowly Jets, at home.  A win there will silence doubters in and out of the locker room and buy JP some breathing room.  At that point, with the KH option already shown to be a dead end, there will be no reason for anyone to wonder, as JP struggles here and there, "could we have won that game if KH was playing?"

 

Rank speculation I know but I would hate to see JP get the start, drop two at the beginning of the season and then have to keep his self confidence as the locker room gumbling begins.

740566[/snapback]

 

 

The difference I would guess between believing in this (rank speculation as you call it) and the reality of how the Bills braintrust is approaching this is likely:

 

1. The speculation has as its goal producing a winner in 2007 or 2008 when through a TD like careful management of JP's development he becomes a savior who leads the team to the playoffs.

 

2. I perceive the brainstrust has no illusion about the poor prospects we have for making the playoffs this year, but they have a goal of producing a winner in 2006 rather than focusing their efforts on building for 2007 or 2008.

 

I think from Ralph and marv on down they simply refuse to mortgage results in 2006 to build for the future and any strategy which has as its lead or only goal this outcome is flatly rejected.

 

I think that one can comfortably say this is true because:

 

A. The Golden Boys are old geezers and since neither is in charge of this planet last I checked, whille they hope to be around and actively in charge of the team in 2007 or 2008, there advanced age simply make it stupid to engage in a strategy which tries for another payoff beyonf right here and right now.

 

The are not stupid people, so they are not willing to totally throw away building for the future actions in a vain hope that they will get lucky this year, but it would simply be stupid to have as a primary or sole goal making decisions now with only an eye toward making the playoffs in 2007 or 2008.

 

While they hope it us unlikely, they cannot ignore the possibility that in 2007 or 08 they will be dead or drooling in some home.

 

B. They run a business which must put butts in the seats right here and right now. If it became apparent or was even much of a hint that their goal was to build for 2007 or 08 rather than provide the beat product they can provide in 2006, then fans would make the correct choice and deliver the same relative level of attention to the Bills in 2006 that the braintrust is delivering to winning and making the playoffs in 2006 versus 07 and 08.

 

The business of the Bills football team has no choice but to go for it now AND build for the future also because if they sit players now based on some potential woulda/coulda/shoulda then in the competitive American entertainment environment they will suffer fan lost to folks going to gamble at Niagara Falls, taking their 4 year old to see SpongeBob on Ice, have sex with their loved one or some anonymous stranger for cash. or something else.

 

The Bills played with fire once because TD got full of himself and his brilliant judgment and forced MM to play JP last year to give him 2005 as a learning experience rather than play Bledsoe who had little chance of QBing a winner, but had a significantly better chance than the young JP of doing this.

 

The team gamely tried to win with this set up which looked to the future, but they simply had to experience JP not being there yet in our win to start last season over the worst team in the league. My sense is that the team lost its edge and people began to look out for themselves rather than pull to support each other like a winning NE team did when they saw the braintrust led by TD was not doing everything they could to win right here right now.

 

A decision by the braintrust to pursue this same TD like too clever by half thinking in sitting the better player JP the first couple of games to protect his tender ego would be the same kind of death warrant for this team.

[Mickey]

On a scale of one to ten, I'd say it's about average.

740646[/snapback]

From a 2 to a 5, the idea is rising in the polls. Cool.

 

Doesn't anyone appreciate a Parcells-like, mess with their heads, personnel strategy?

[Kelly the Dog]

This speculation is rank. One thing you don't want the team to think the coach and management are is knee jerks. Especially when they're new. It wasn't a total surprise that Mularkey in 2004 said stay the course and succeeded to some degree, and in 2005 was a knee jerk and flopped badly.

[Mickey]

The difference I would guess between believing in this (rank speculation as you call it) and the reality of how the Bills braintrust is approaching this is likely:

 

1. The speculation has as its goal producing a winner in 2007 or 2008 when through a TD like careful management of JP's development he becomes a savior who leads the team to the playoffs.

 

2. I perceive the brainstrust has no illusion about the poor prospects we have for making the playoffs this year, but they have a goal of producing a winner in 2006 rather than focusing their efforts on building for 2007 or 2008.

 

I think from Ralph and marv on down they simply refuse to mortgage results in 2006 to build for the future and any strategy which has as its lead or only goal this outcome is flatly rejected.

 

I think that one can comfortably say this is true because:

 

A. The Golden Boys are old geezers and since neither is in charge of this planet last I checked, whille they hope to be around and actively in charge of the team in 2007 or 2008, there advanced age simply make it stupid to engage in a strategy which tries for another payoff beyonf right here and right now.

 

The are not stupid people, so they are not willing to totally throw away building for the future actions in a vain hope that they will get lucky this year, but it would simply be stupid to have as a primary or sole goal making decisions now with only an eye toward making the playoffs in 2007 or 2008.

 

While they hope it us unlikely, they cannot ignore the possibility that in 2007 or 08 they will be dead or drooling in some home.

 

B. They run a business which must put butts in the seats right here and right now.  If it became apparent or was even much of a hint that their goal was to build for 2007 or 08 rather than provide the beat product they can provide in 2006, then fans would make the correct choice and deliver the same relative level of attention to the Bills in 2006 that the braintrust is delivering to winning and making the playoffs in 2006 versus 07 and 08.

 

The business of the Bills football team has no choice but to go for it now AND build for the future also because if they sit players now based on some potential woulda/coulda/shoulda then in the competitive American entertainment environment they will suffer fan lost to folks going to gamble at Niagara Falls, taking their 4 year old to see SpongeBob on Ice, have sex with their loved one or some anonymous stranger for cash. or something else.

 

The Bills played with fire once because TD got full of himself and his brilliant judgment and forced MM to play JP last year to give him 2005 as a learning experience rather than play Bledsoe who had little chance of QBing a winner, but had a significantly better chance than the young JP of doing this.

 

The team gamely tried to win with this set up which looked to the future, but they simply had to experience JP not being there yet in our win to start last season over the worst team in the league.  My sense is that the team lost its edge and people began to look out for themselves rather than pull to support each other like a winning NE team did when they saw the braintrust led by TD was not doing everything they could to win right here right now.

 

A decision by the braintrust to pursue this same TD like too clever by half thinking in sitting the better player JP the first couple of games to protect his tender ego would be the same kind of death warrant for this team.

740651[/snapback]

I am with you on most of that despite your clear attempt to overthrow me as "king of the verbose". If I understand you correctly, any perception by the team that the coaches are doing anything other than all they can to win each week would devastate the team. I agree on that possibility and in fact made the same point last off season along the lines that you can't expect vets to give their all to win a football game you are treating as a preseason training exercise for your QB.

 

Applying this idea to the firs two games, which starter, JP or KH, is the one who sends the signal that the coaches want to win now, this year, as opposed to kissing off this year inorder to take our lumps in promise of better times ahead? Honestly, I would have thought that KH is the guy who gives us the best chance at winning in the short term and if so, applying your idea would result in him being the starter. Now, if your opinion is that JP gives us the best chance at winning and thus we have to start him from the git go or else risk the vets thinking they aren't serious about winning then, of course, JP should start pretty much every game or at least the first 8 or so.

 

Who do you think give us the best chance at winning in the short term, KH or JP?

[5 Wide]

I agree with LevysEra...it is indeed a loser mentality. The best way to overcome adversity is not to avoid it, but to take it on and fight your battles. Approaching JP with kid gloves will only tell us that he can partially get the job done under the right circumstances as opposed to fighting through and taking command of the position.

[Gordio]

At times like this I think back & wonder what Jim Kelly as a rookie would say if Bullough told him he was going to be benched for the first 2 games because they were hard games. He would of told the coaching staff to F off.

 

Losman, is the guy this year, time to find out what you have in the kid. I say throw him against the wolves opening week in foxboro. He has had 3 years to get it figured out.

[Sen. John Blutarsky]

I have a hard time with PLANNING on switching QB's during the season. If it happens it happens but to have it built in as part of a master scheme is kinda foolish.

 

JP needs to start, if we get beat we get beat, he needs to take his lumps and grow with the rest of the offense, whether we as fans like it or not. I hope that DJ won't be so easily swayed by public (OUR) opinion that he changes QB's because we're grumbling...because frankly we ALWAYS grumble.

 

We need to find out if our QB of the future is on the roster or not, starting Holcomb for any reason but injury damages that process. In your scenario I'd rather them start NALL sight unseen for weeks 1 and 2, he's an unknown quantity as is JP, Holcomb is what he is and that's it.

 

And I'm quite sure that I'll piss off half the board when I say this (because for some reason we always have to have 2 QB camps) but if we start Holcomb we MIGHT win more games this season, but we'll delay our emergence as a quality contender by 1 season because if we somehow go 9-7 or something and make the playoffs what do we do In February? If there's any result but a Super Bowl victory does Holcomb stay? We're right back into the Bledsoe/Losman thing again.

 

Losman and/or Nall have to play this year. have to. If we stink we stink and we go get someone else whether it's Brady Quinn or a vet from another team.

[The Senator]

Just who are these Benjamins, and when did they have a baby?

[Sen. John Blutarsky]

Just who are these Benjamins, and when did they have a baby?

740677[/snapback]

No no see, if I were referring to a family named Benjamin I would have used an apostrophe as in "Benjamin's" to refer to a baby belonging to said family. But, in this particular case, I was making a pop culture reference; the origins of which I suspect you are also aware.

[Pyrite Gal]

I am with you on most of that despite your clear attempt to overthrow me as "king of the verbose".  If I understand you correctly, any perception by the team that the coaches are doing anything other than all they can to win each week would devastate the team.  I agree on that possibility and in fact made the same point last off season along the lines that you can't expect vets to give their all to win a football game you are treating as a preseason training exercise for your QB.

 

Applying this idea to the firs two games, which starter, JP or KH, is the one who sends the signal that the coaches want to win now, this year, as opposed to kissing off this year inorder to take our lumps in promise of better times ahead?  Honestly, I would have thought that KH is the guy who gives us the best chance at winning in the short term and if so, applying your idea would result in him being the starter.  Now, if your opinion is that JP gives us the best chance at winning and thus we have to start him from the git go or else risk the vets thinking they aren't serious about winning then, of course, JP should start pretty much every game or at least the first 8 or so.

 

Who do you think give us the best chance at winning in the short term, KH or JP?

740658[/snapback]

 

This is generally my analysis but people are not stupid and you have to balance things. We people have little brains and like things reduced to one of either two choices.

 

Either we play totally for now which mans sit JP or we play totally for the future and sit Holcomb. Nope. The real world is more complicated than that (despite the leadership of this country trying to reduce every complex international dispute to a fight vs good and evil so therefore every evil thing we might have to do is really good) and this decision about QBs needs to deal in the real world where the first call is to win now, but building for the future is taken into account so we do not take stupid chances or pass up good opportunities.

 

Nuance is complext but it is simply the real world.

 

The mistake TD made last year was that he seemed to attempt to chose force us into a situation where we gave JP the learning season that might well be good for him because the alternative was to go with a QB who had never been consistent enough to even start in the NFL for ten years and who was on record saying he was comfortable with being a #2.

 

If DB had been kept, any chance JP has of having his training season would have meant a decision to keep a former SB QB on the bench while he went through growing pains. TD attempted to make a unilateral decision to go against our financial interests (the accelerate cap hit of cutting DB) in order to assure we would choose to give JP practice rather than go with a journeyman.

 

Yet, the feeling among players who have a limited shelf life in the NFL, the coaches who are judged pretty much on what have you done for me lately and the fans who desperately want a winner was still for the present and wanted KH for the most part once it was clear how much learning JP really needed to do.

 

Perhaps if this team was as bad as Indy was when they chose Manning of moving up from 3-13 without him to 3-13 with him we could have gotteen away with making last year a painful learning year for the QB. However, we had the #1 ST in the NFL and the #2 statistically ranked D, TD made the same mistake many make of being willing to build for the future when there is even a snowball's chance in heck of winning right here right now.

 

Even with a worse team overall (by statistical measures) in terms of our prospects coming into the season and better reasons for commiting first to learning and growing pains this year as we have a new braintrust, the fact that the NFL has made worse to first more possible than ever before (even though it is unlikely to the point of being impossible for this team) means the first priority for the Bills has to be win right here and right now.

 

I do think that Holcomb gives us a better chance to win certainly that the most recent JP Losman we have seen against real opponents. However, the good thing about JP is that he showed tremendous upside which got him drafted in the 1st round. He also has yet to play even close 16 games as a starter so there is a chance that this upside will begin to make itself apparent quite suddenly.

 

I agree with where the Bills are right now. Holcomb is our starter and #1 on the depth charts. However, this by no means says he gets all the reps or even is a declaration that it is his job all things being equal. It seems the height of fairness and a good approach for the Bills to have an on field competition and make decisions as the schedule demands as to who is the starter.

 

We avid fans want a decision made right now. However, the Bills braintrust should tell fans politely and in a way which still makes them happy to spend their nickels on the Bills to shut up about decisions (though talk about the team all the time and tell WGR to shut up talking about the Sabres).

 

My guess is that by the end of the pre-season (actually after the second pre-season game or at the latest after the third pre-season game) all things being qual actually JP would get the nod. I doubt career back-up Holcomb or injured Nall will show enough to make things unequal.

 

The is a small but still signficant chance that JP will stink up the place so bad that all things are not equal. However, I think he wil show enough potential and Holcomb will not be such a stud that we end up choosing KH to remain as starter.

 

It is interesting though, on the face of it, I think KH is just the type of player to do well in what we believe will be the Fairchild O with the players we have obtained.

 

I think folks who feel KH's has a rag arm and cannot through the ball long constantly as a Rams East offense requires are likely just plain wrong about what our "Rams East O" will look like.

 

I think it will be Rams like in that it will be pass-happy, but folks need to understand that just because we will throw deep does not mean we will throw deep all the time (KH does not have the arm to throw deep all the time), What my understanding of the Rams O is that it throws a lot but the vast majority of the passes are actually relatrively short passes which go to speedy WRs who get quick separation because the play design uses slants to get speed demons open and crosses to set picks we are not called for and because the speed forces Ds into zones (if a take from 34- or others differs on this point I will be checking this thread and will respond here if they are nice enough to copy their points which I missed in other threads).

 

KH will need to go deep a bit, but really only a relatively small number of times to stretch the opposing D. If one believes that KH has a bill kilmer like arm that can never go deep or have any zip under any circumstances then he cannot run a Rams style offense. However, I think he can throw a good deep pass a lmited number of times per game (2 or 3 times will do). He actually can throw a deep lofting pass which still stretches the D by being able to read that the D is in a press and is not playing centerfield with a deep zone and simply lofting the ball up to an agreed upon point and depend on a speedy WR to run underneath it. In addition, KH can stretch the D by throwing a ball which does not have enough zip to be completed in tight coverage, but which goes incomplete out of bounds or well downfield. In addition, one can stretch the D by sending the reciever so he proves to the DB he can beat him but the QB throws underneath. The effect is that the DB chooses to give the WR a bunch of cushion lest he be beaten again and this time KH is lobbing it deep.

 

What JP will need to show he can do to win the starting job is show the he is mastering the ability to read plays and actually to quickly dump the ball off when his reads show that the D is covering the deep threat.

 

We all know that JP can throw the ball a mile with zip deep. We all know about his escapability and ability to improvise he learned running for his life behing a Tulane Noffesive Line.

 

However, we will know he is a pro QB when he demonstrates he has also learned how to make good reads and to dump the ball off effectively to a WM who will now be an athlete rather than just a runner.

 

I think JP will win the QB battle because it is easier for him to do what he has to do which is do less and stop trying to run around than it is for KH to do what he has to do which is to do more with his limited skill set.

 

However, JP has yet to show in games against opponents that he really has begun to master doing less and slowing the game down for himself so he can produce more by trying to do less on his own.

[keepthefaith]

I have nothing to base this on but my ability to overthink a simple situation and still get it wrong.

 

Here is the hypothesis:  The opening schedule this year is pretty tough, opening on the road against New England and Miami.  Now I hate to throw in the towel before the games are even played but even so, I see an 0-2 start as being far more likely than 2-0 start.  If that happens and we do drop the first two, who is likely to get the blame for that?  Probably the starting QB.  If JP is the guy, or if you want him to be on the learning curve this year, is it not maybe better to start Holcomb?

 

It would then play out that Holcomb gets pulled after two losses to start the season and JP is inserted as the new starter against the Jets in the home opener.  Now that is a game I expect we will win.  It would be the reverse of last year, with all the pressure on Holcomb rather than young JP.  As the rest of the season progresses and JP has some bad games as he inevitably will, no one in the locker room will have an argument that KH should start.  You can just point to those first two games and silence any argument that KH would be any better.  From that Jet game on, JP becomes the undisputed starter both in terms of fan support and in the locker room.

 

If you go the other way, by the Jet game with the team at 0-2, there will be thoughts, rumors, grumblings, etc., that KH should get a shot given JP's 0-2 start.  Same scenario we had last year.  If you do give KH the start against the Jets and we win that game, then again, you have an instant replay of last year.  You have that same rotten choice between having a better chance to win or training JP for the future.

 

The only drawback here is if the team wins those first two games but if that happens, then maybe we should be starting KH anyway.  Hard to think of being

2-0 as a disaster.

 

There it is.  Let KH be the one to have the confidence of the team and the fans shaken by a pair of losses to open the sesason and let JP be the guy who comes off the bench with nothing to lose against the lowly Jets, at home.  A win there will silence doubters in and out of the locker room and buy JP some breathing room.  At that point, with the KH option already shown to be a dead end, there will be no reason for anyone to wonder, as JP struggles here and there, "could we have won that game if KH was playing?"

 

Rank speculation I know but I would hate to see JP get the start, drop two at the beginning of the season and then have to keep his self confidence as the locker room gumbling begins.

740566[/snapback]

 

Everyone should enjoy watching KH start on Saturday. It'll be his last start this year unless someone gets hurt.