Holcomb: 6th most accurate passer

[Dibs]

K.C. Joiners ESPN Insider article about accurate passers has Holcomb as #6.

LINKY

 

For those who can't use insider....

 

Who was the NFL's most accurate passer in 2005? Whenever I bring up the issue of a quarterback's accuracy, I invariably receive a lot of feedback from readers wanting me to clarify what I mean.

 

An accurate pass can be described simply as a pass thrown within the receiver's catching frame -- the area where the receiver can reach out and get his hands on the ball. If the ball arrives within this frame, it is ruled an accurate pass. Otherwise, it is ruled an inaccurate pass.

 

Another question I am frequently asked is how do I account for passes thrown well over the head of a receiver, as well as passes thrown away or knocked down. I use a similar line of thinking to the catchable pass idea proposed in the TYPCA metric.

 

Any pass knocked down or thrown away is removed from the accuracy percentage calculations altogether. I also remove passes attempted when the quarterback is hit just as he throws the ball.

 

I do count intentional overthrows on deep passes as pass attempts, but they do not count as inaccurate passes. It is a subjective metric, but I use these rules to clarify the metric as much as possible.

 

I use a percentage basis to rank the quarterbacks, with the lowest inaccuracy percentage being the best. The following is a breakdown of the top five quarterbacks in this metric:

 

As for where some of the other big-name quarterbacks ended up, here are the top 15 quarterbacks in this category:

 

1. Marc Bulger -- 10.2

2. Carson Palmer -- 11.2

2. Brian Griese -- 11.2

4. Matt Hasselbeck -- 11.8

4. Mark Brunell -- 11.8

6. Kelly Holcomb -- 12.3

7. Brad Johnson -- 12.5

8. Peyton Manning -- 12.6

9. Byron Leftwich -- 13.2

10. Drew Brees -- 13.8

11. Aaron Brooks -- 13.9

12. David Carr -- 14.0

13. Anthony Wright -- 14.4

14. Chris Simms -- 14.6

15. Steve McNair -- 15.0

[MartyBall4Buffalo]

I use a percentage basis to rank the quarterbacks, with the lowest inaccuracy percentage being the best. The following is a breakdown of the top five quarterbacks in this metric:

 

As for where some of the other big-name quarterbacks ended up, here are the top 15 quarterbacks in this category:

 

1. Marc Bulger -- 10.2

2. Carson Palmer -- 11.2

2. Brian Griese -- 11.2

4. Matt Hasselbeck -- 11.8

4. Mark Brunell -- 11.8

6. Kelly Holcomb -- 12.3

7. Brad Johnson -- 12.5

8. Peyton Manning -- 12.6

9. Byron Leftwich -- 13.2

10. Drew Brees -- 13.8

11. Aaron Brooks -- 13.9

12. David Carr -- 14.0

13. Anthony Wright -- 14.4

14. Chris Simms -- 14.6

15. Steve McNair -- 15.0

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I bolded bulgers names for fairly obvious reasons. Now that Fairchild is our offensive coordinator does his system really rely on passers who can get the ball down the field or does Holcomb stand a better chance to exceed in this system due to being an accurate quaterback. Let me just say I believe a good qb is accurate no matter what just curious if this leads one to believe Holcomb stands a better chance of being our qb this year?

[BADOLBILZ]

I bolded bulgers names for fairly obvious reasons.  Now that Fairchild is our offensive coordinator does his system really rely on passers who can get the ball down the field or does Holcomb stand a better chance to exceed in this system due to being an accurate quaterback.  Let me just say I believe  a good qb is accurate no matter what just curious if this leads one to believe Holcomb stands a better chance of being our qb this year? 

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If it's 4th and 8 and you need 2 yards there is nobody better.

[UConn James]

By this logic, in war, you can say that every bullet that hits a tree, a leaf, water, the ground, etc., etc. doesn't count. If this is the standard then we were like 1:2 in Vietnam.

 

It sure is representative to only count those plays which are executed perfectly in order to judge a QB! Nothing less than perfect conditions warrant judgment! Wait a minute! He forgot to subtract those plays where the QB smelled a bad odor from the center's backside! Better fire up that Excel spreadsheet again, K.C.

 

This 'study' means d--k in the real world. Typical ESPN.

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1. Marc Bulger -- 10.2

2. Carson Palmer -- 11.2

2. Brian Griese -- 11.2

4. Matt Hasselbeck -- 11.8

4. Mark Brunell -- 11.8

6. Kelly Holcomb-- 12.3

7. Brad Johnson -- 12.5

8. Peyton Manning -- 12.6

9. Byron Leftwich -- 13.2

10. Drew Brees -- 13.8

11. Aaron Brooks -- 13.9

12. David Carr -- 14.0

13. Anthony Wright -- 14.4

14. Chris Simms -- 14.6

15. Steve McNair -- 15.0

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Of these most accurate 15 QBs, 6, a mere 40%, were on playoff teams.

Big Ben, Tom Brady, and Jake Delhomme are noticably absent from this list

[Bob in SC]

Anybody wonder where JP would be on this list?

[silvermike]

1. Marc Bulger -- 10.2

2. Carson Palmer -- 11.2

2. Brian Griese -- 11.2

4. Matt Hasselbeck -- 11.8

4. Mark Brunell -- 11.8

6. Kelly Holcomb -- 12.3

7. Brad Johnson -- 12.5

8. Peyton Manning -- 12.6

9. Byron Leftwich -- 13.2

10. Drew Brees -- 13.8

11. Aaron Brooks -- 13.9

12. David Carr -- 14.0

13. Anthony Wright -- 14.4

14. Chris Simms -- 14.6

15. Steve McNair -- 15.0

 

I think these guys' position on the list say a lot about what this stat is worth. When you run some kind of analysis, and you get these results, you have to conclude your study is measuring something that is largely unimportant.

[Dibs]

I think most of you guys are right. It stands to reason that a QB who can win a game...i.e. Favre, Elway etc....will take a few more chances(throw more difficult passes). If a QB throws an easy 2 yard pass on 4th & 7 when he should have tried to thread the needle to a receiver 10 yards down field it will reflect well on this 'accuracy' system. It does not IMO reflect the 'abilities' of the QB.

[Ramius]

When your longest pass travels 8 yards in the air, its very tough to be inaccurate.

[Pyrite Gal]

When your longest pass travels 8 yards in the air, its very tough to be inaccurate.

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The keys are going to be whether the speed of the Bills personnel at WR results in a system being crafted where these players get immediate separation from their defenders,

 

It matter little if the passes only travel 8 yards (or even 3 yards for that matter) in the air if the WR is able to get 10+ yards on average and the not infrequent TD from RAC.

[generaLee83]

K.C. Joiners ESPN Insider article about accurate passers has Holcomb as #6.

LINKY

 

 

1. Marc Bulger -- 10.2

2. Carson Palmer -- 11.2

2. Brian Griese -- 11.2

4. Matt Hasselbeck -- 11.8

4. Mark Brunell -- 11.8

6. Kelly Holcomb -- 12.3

7. Brad Johnson -- 12.5

8. Peyton Manning -- 12.6

9. Byron Leftwich -- 13.2

10. Drew Brees -- 13.8

11. Aaron Brooks -- 13.9

12. David Carr -- 14.0

13. Anthony Wright -- 14.4

14. Chris Simms -- 14.6

15. Steve McNair -- 15.0

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Funny how Brady or Rothlisberger aren't in here and they have won 4 of the last 5 super bowls.

 

Who is Anthony Wright?

[ans4e64]

i could be accurate throwing a 5 yard hitch to josh reed when the rest of the league can throw more than 20 yards...... with the exception of chad pennington of course

[MartyBall4Buffalo]

i could be accurate throwing a 5 yard hitch to josh reed when the rest of the league can throw more than 20 yards...... with the exception of chad pennington of course

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zing! As much flak as everyone gives holcomb he looks like elway arm strength wise compared to pennington

[crazyDingo]

Big deal.

 

How many HITS did Holcomb make, and what is Willis' 40 time?

 

GET THE QUESTIONS RIGHT!

[OCinBuffalo]

This is a dopey statistical model. That it comes from ESPN is no surprise. I can explain in depth but suffice it to say it doesn't take total number of passes into account properly. Without getting into it: What I am saying is based on the same concept as why you have to have a minimum number of games played/attempts, etc. to qualify for leading the league in any stat based on average.

 

I.E., From the Bills.com article: #9 Can special teams, etc.

"And Roscoe Parrish came on late averaging better than 13 yards a punt return which would have led the league had he met the minimum number of returns to qualify."

Again, without getting into it, there is a specific set of statistical rules/approaches that set that minimum number(technically there should be a maximum number that diqualifies you as well) when averages/percentages are used.

 

Clearly there has to be a wide range between pass attempts per game/season amongst the list of QB's above. Without adjusting for this, K.C.'s analysis is skewed at best. I would guess that is precisely why we don't see Brady, Rothelisberger, et al. on this list. Not controlling(or at least segementing the data) for the distance of balls thrown using the same max/min standards as described above, skews the results as well.

 

Last year the list's #1 Bulger attempted 287 passes, #15 McNair attempted 476. Farve is not on the list but he attempted 607! No frickin' way this is an apples to apples comparison. Incidentally, Holcomb attempted 230.

 

In contrast, baseball averages are relatively reliable because the average at bats/season over the entire league is very close for players who play all season.

 

This is why "statistics don't lie, but good liars use statistics." I am fully prepared to be called nerd now.