Who's on the hot seat this year?

[Mark Vader]

It just now dawned on me that we are only 2 weeks away from training camp, and only 4 weeks away from the Bills first preseason game.

 

Very soon football will be back in our lives again, and all will be right with the world.

 

Since we are so close to the start of a brand new season, I wanted to get all of your opinions of who you think is on the hot seat for the Bills this year.

Here are my position-by-position look at the players who will really have to step up.

 

 

QB: J.P. Losman. This is the most obvious player. He will be watched more intently than any other player on the team. I believe that Losman can overcome his bad season and become the QB the Bills need him to be. Losman's biggest problem seems to be that he does not have the intangibles a QB needs. He has the arm strength, and athleticism to be a good QB. Now he needs to come up with the quick decision making, show leadership, and learn how to take control of the offense. If he does that, he could become a great QB. But we shall have to wait and see.

 

RB: Shaud Williams. With the signing of Anthony Thomas and possibly more playing time of Lionel Gates, Williams will have his work cut out for him. He will have to prove that he can be more than a 3rd down back.

 

FB: Daimon Shelton. Shelton has all the tools to stick with the team. The only thing he has going against him is his age(33). Unless Goldsberry or Ming do'nt stand out, Shelton will more likely stay.

 

OL: This is a mostly new unit, so it is difficult to find someone who's position as a starter is in jeopardy.

 

TE: Kevin Everett. I know he is only in his 2nd year, and he has yet to play a down, but with the signing of Robert Royal, and the high praise of Brad Cieslak can Everett climb is way to the top?

 

WR: Lee Evans. I only put Evans here, because he is now going to be THE #1 WR on the team. Will he be able to excel at this spot a whole season? I believe he will, but still we have to wait and see.

 

DT: Tim Anderson. He's a starter now, but that is mostly by default. With Larry Triplett filling one side and John McCargo ready to jump in and take over, Anderson will have much to prove.

 

DE: Chris Kelsay. This is a huge year for Kelsay. He benefits from the Bills not having a big back-up at DE. Kelsay has not lived up to expectations and will have to show that he belongs on this team.

 

LB: Takeo Spikes. For obvious reasons.

 

Jeff Posey. Can he benefit in the new cover 2?

 

CB: Nate Clements: Can "The Playmaker", justify his big one year salary?

 

S: Coy Wire: The drafting of Whitner & back-up Rob Lee, might make things too crowded for Wire.

 

Rashad Baker: Again, things look crowded with Jim Leonhard & Ko Simpson on the depth chart.

 

Alright, that is how I see it. What say you?

[krazykat]

I say that for the kind of money Fowler, Royal, Tripplett, and Price are getting, they had better step up big time. They are all getting paid extremely well at their positions given their experience, past performance, and general track record.

 

Shelton, Williams, Wire, and Baker might not even make the team.

 

No one on your list is making as much money as those four free agents.

 

On the hotseat? I'd say Levy. If this team flops, he's not gonna be well liked as a GM.

[Corp000085]

losman has to be the #1 hotseat guy... He has shown very little in 2 years, plus he's a TD guy... easy to get rid of with a new GM... Levy will have no trouble cutting or benching him and putting in his guy, nall.

[ganesh]

I would say 50 players are on the hot seat....The only guys who have nothing to worry are Brian Moorman, Clements and McGee.....Everyone else is under the microscope.

[Mickey]

It just now dawned on me that we are only 2 weeks away from training camp, and only 4 weeks away from the Bills first preseason game.

 

Very soon football will be back in our lives again, and all will be right with the world.

 

Since we are so close to the start of a brand new season, I wanted to get all of your opinions of who you think is on the hot seat for the Bills this year.

Here are my position-by-position look at the players who will really have to step up.

QB: J.P. Losman. This is the most obvious player. He will be watched more intently than any other player on the team. I believe that Losman can overcome his bad season and become the QB the Bills need him to be. Losman's biggest problem seems to be that he does not have the intangibles a QB needs. He has the arm strength, and athleticism to be a good QB. Now he needs to come up with the quick decision making, show leadership, and learn how to take control of the offense. If he does that, he could become a great QB. But we shall have to wait and see.

 

RB: Shaud Williams. With the signing of Anthony Thomas and possibly more playing time of Lionel Gates, Williams will have his work cut out for him. He will have to prove that he can be more than a 3rd down back.

 

FB: Daimon Shelton. Shelton has all the tools to stick with the team. The only thing he has going against him is his age(33). Unless Goldsberry or Ming do'nt stand out, Shelton will more likely stay.

 

OL: This is a mostly new unit, so it is difficult to find someone who's position as a starter is in jeopardy.

 

TE: Kevin Everett. I know he is only in his 2nd year, and he has yet to play a down, but with the signing of Robert Royal, and the high praise of Brad Cieslak can Everett climb is way to the top?

 

WR: Lee Evans. I only put Evans here, because he is now going to be THE #1 WR on the team. Will he be able to excel at this spot a whole season? I believe he will, but still we have to wait and see.

 

DT: Tim Anderson. He's a starter now, but that is mostly by default. With Larry Triplett filling one side and John McCargo ready to jump in and take over, Anderson will have much to prove.

 

DE: Chris Kelsay. This is a huge year for Kelsay. He benefits from the Bills not having a big back-up at DE. Kelsay has not lived up to expectations and will have to show that he belongs on this team.

 

LB: Takeo Spikes. For obvious reasons.

 

      Jeff Posey. Can he benefit in the new cover 2?

 

CB: Nate Clements: Can "The Playmaker", justify his big one year salary?

 

S: Coy Wire: The drafting of Whitner & back-up Rob Lee, might make things too crowded for Wire.

 

    Rashad Baker: Again, things look crowded with Jim Leonhard & Ko Simpson on the depth chart.

 

Alright, that is how I see it. What say you?

722883[/snapback]

In terms of being on the roster at the end of camp, or making it as a starter, I don't think Losman is "on the hot seat" but he is as far as his career is concerned. I don't think it will matter much if Holcomb emerges as the starter on opening day. Losman will get a chance soon enough. Whether that is as the opening day starter or later, when Holcomb inveitably falters won't matter. How he plays when he is out there over the whole season will be critical for his career.

 

At RB, this is a huge year for Willis. Hopefully we will have a less than terrible line this year and better play calling all around leading to manageable down and distance situations. This is the year he needs to run up some numbers if he wants the money and kind of career he clearly wants to have. Obviously, he is not on the hot seat for a position on the roster or as a starter. Williams might not make it through camp, not with Thomas on the roster. In that sense he is certainly on the hot seat but either way, I don't see that as a major concern for us at all. Even if he makes it, what snaps Willis does not get will go to Thomas.

 

I agree on Shelton, mostly because I don't know squat about Goldsberry.

 

At TE I think Cieslak or Neufeld might be gone no matter how much they rave about Brad. Royal and Everett aren't going anywhere unless something very unexpected happens in camp. I think we will keep three so that leaves one of the other two out.

 

On the OL I think Villarial might be "on the hot seat." He will make it through camp and will almost assuredly be the starter but if there is a starter there that is vulnerable, I think it is him. We have been awful the last two to three years from guard to guard. We have a new LG and a new C, RG is the next one up. Duke is behind him there as well as competing with Reyes for LG. I actually think he has more of a chance at RG based on these snippets from some articles:

 

"Preston saw spot duty at guard last season in place of the injured Chris Villarrial and has seen most of his time at right guard this past spring..."

 

And : "They got me fitting in at both guards and at center so it's kind of the same situation I was in last year, which is kind of tough "

 

He is my pick as a suprise starter on opening day but at RG, not LG.

 

That having been said, you could make a good argument that no one on the O-line should feel all that secure about their position.

 

At WR I think Peerless, in terms of his career is on the hot seat big time but then again, so is Reed and Davis. All three may be at the end of the road if they fail to land a job here. Roscoe might not be done in the NFL if he fails to win the starting job at #2 or virtually starting in the slot but if he doesn't, people will start to talk about him as a bust. Other than Evans, they are pretty much all on the hot seat one way or another.

 

On defense, Clements can't afford another year like the one he just had if he wants to continute being thought of as a top corner. London is facing a critical year as far as proving that he can transition to a new defensive scheme and he has a contract situation brewing as well, not as critical as Clements but still, he is going to be looking for a new deal. Kelsay and Denney need to show that they can handle the left DE spot which I doubt they will be able to do. In that sense they are vulnerable, especially Denney. I don't see either getting cut though.

 

This is likely Troy's last hurrah with the only question being when he is replaced. Conceivably it could be this year but not likely.

 

Whitner, given all the grousing about when he was picked, will be under public pressure to prove he was worth his selection but otherwise, I think he will be the starter by week 4 at the latest. He is going to draw a lot of fan and media scrutiny.

 

Obviously, Takeo is going to face a critical year in his career. Either he is going to be his old self or he is going to have lost a step or two and if he has, he won't be in the league much longer. Only a fool would bet against him.

 

By week 8:

 

WR Evans

OT Gandy

LG Reyes

C Fowler

RG Preston

RT Peters

WR Davis

QB Losman

RB Willis

FB Shelton

TE Royal

 

Depending on down and distance, first off the bench will be RB Thomas, WR Parrish and TE Everett.

 

 

On Defense:

 

RE Schobel

T Tripplet

T Anderson

LE Kelsay

OLB Posey

ILB Fletcher

OLB Spikes

CB McGee

CB Clements

SS Whitner

FS Vincent

 

First off the bench in the nickel will be Greer, in the dime, Youboty though I think that is a bit of a stretch. I can't help it though, from what I saw last year, I don't think King can cover well at all. McCargo will play on passing downs in place of Anderson.

 

Most likely injury leading to a young guy starting: Vincent/Simpson followed by Villarial/Preston.

[Beerball]

It just now dawned on me that we are only 2 weeks away from training camp, and only 4 weeks away from the Bills first preseason game.

 

 

722883[/snapback]

I agree with some and have a few to add.

 

I don't think Shelton is significant enough to be on a hot seat. If he's gone or plays little I don't see an effect on the team.

 

Everett--big time

 

Evans--needs to show that he is the man

 

I would add Roscoe. If he isn't able to make a difference as the #3 receiver I think his career could be short.

 

Wire--not significant enough

 

The entire D-Line has something to prove. In the new scheme they have to generate the pressure. Otherwise the DBs will be hung out to dry.

 

Nate--he's gotta play for the pay again this year. Should be enough incentive for him.

[Fixxxer]

I would say 50 players are on the hot seat....The only guys who have nothing to worry are Brian Moorman, Clements and McGee.....Everyone else is under the microscope.

722925[/snapback]

 

I would add Schobel to that list.

[Pyrite Gal]

In terms of being on the roster at the end of camp, or making it as a starter, I don't think Losman is "on the hot seat" but he is as far as his career is concerned.  I don't think it will matter much if Holcomb emerges as the starter on opening day.  Losman will get a chance soon enough.  Whether that is as the opening day starter or later, when Holcomb inveitably falters won't matter.  How he plays when he is out there over the whole season will be critical for his career.

 

At RB, this is a huge year for Willis.  Hopefully we will have a less than terrible line this year and better play calling all around leading to manageable down and distance situations.  This is the year he needs to run up some numbers if he wants the money and kind of career he clearly wants to have.  Obviously, he is not on the hot seat for a position on the roster or as a starter.  Williams might not make it through camp, not with Thomas on the roster.  In that sense he is certainly on the hot seat but either way, I don't see that as a major concern for us at all.  Even if he makes it, what snaps Willis does not get will go to Thomas.

 

I agree on Shelton, mostly because I don't know squat about Goldsberry.

 

At TE I think Cieslak or Neufeld might be gone no matter how much they rave about Brad.  Royal and Everett aren't going anywhere unless something very unexpected happens in camp.  I think we will keep three so that leaves one of the other two out.

 

On the OL I think Villarial might be "on the hot seat."  He will make it through camp and will almost assuredly be the starter but if there is a starter there that is vulnerable, I think it is him.  We have been awful the last two to three years from guard to guard.  We have a new LG and a new C, RG is the next one up.  Duke is behind him there as well as competing with Reyes for LG.  I actually think he has more of a chance at RG based on these snippets from some articles:

 

"Preston saw spot duty at guard last season in place of the injured Chris Villarrial and has seen most of his time at right guard this past spring..."

 

And :  "They got me fitting in at both guards and at center so it's kind of the same situation I was in last year, which is kind of tough "

 

He is my pick as a suprise starter on opening day but at RG, not LG.

 

That having been said, you could make a good argument that no one on the O-line should feel all that secure about their position.

 

At WR I think Peerless, in terms of his career is on the hot seat big time but then again, so is Reed and Davis.  All three may be at the end of the road if they fail to land a job here.  Roscoe might not be done in the NFL if he fails to win the starting job at #2 or virtually starting in the slot but if he doesn't, people will start to talk about him as a bust.  Other than Evans, they are pretty much all on the hot seat one way or another.

 

On defense, Clements can't afford another year like the one he just had if he wants to continute being thought of as a top corner.  London is facing a critical year as far as proving that he can transition to a new defensive scheme and he has a contract situation brewing as well, not as critical as Clements but still, he is going to be looking for a new deal.  Kelsay and Denney need to show that they can handle the left DE spot which I doubt they will be able to do.  In that sense they are vulnerable, especially Denney.  I don't see either getting cut though. 

 

This is likely Troy's last hurrah with the only question being when he is replaced.  Conceivably it could be this year but not likely.

 

Whitner, given all the grousing about when he was picked, will be under public pressure to prove he was worth his selection but otherwise, I think he will be the starter by week 4 at the latest.  He is going to draw a lot of fan and media scrutiny. 

 

Obviously, Takeo is going to face a critical year in his career.  Either he is going to be his old self or he is going to have lost a step or two and if he has, he won't be in the league much longer.  Only a fool would bet against him.

 

By week 8:

 

WR Evans

OT Gandy

LG Reyes

C Fowler

RG Preston

RT Peters

WR Davis

QB Losman

RB Willis

FB Shelton

TE Royal

 

Depending on down and distance, first off the bench will be RB Thomas, WR Parrish and TE Everett.

On Defense:

 

RE Schobel

T Tripplet

T Anderson

LE Kelsay

OLB Posey

ILB Fletcher

OLB Spikes

CB McGee

CB Clements

SS Whitner

FS Vincent

 

First off the bench in the nickel will be Greer, in the dime, Youboty though I think that is a bit of a stretch.  I can't help it though, from what I saw last year, I don't think King can cover well at all.  McCargo will play on passing downs in place of Anderson. 

 

Most likely injury leading to a young guy starting: Vincent/Simpson followed by Villarial/Preston.

722992[/snapback]

I think you have the right cut on this as "being on the hotseat can mean different things. This year could determine whether a player gets cut or not before the season and this is a real hotseat.

 

This year can determine whether a player has a breakout year as a pro or not, but as his contract likely gives him another shot, his chances may be smaller of ever doing it but he is not on the hotseat in my view.

 

An example of this is that Brad Johnson was in the hotseat a couple of times as his failures got him cut or traded from his team . Nevertheless he did end up QB'ing an SB winning team. JP is not even in the Brad Johnson situation where if he fails to produce this year he will get cut from the Bills as likely the Bills will keep him for at least another year and he gets a shot (though if this year looks like last year it is doubtful he will ever make it). its a crtically important year for him, but I do not think he is on the hotseat yet.

 

As far as Bills who I actually think are on the hotseat where it is either crap or get off the pot as a Bill forever, I think its:

 

PP- Its a make or break year for him. if he does not produce at a level commensurate with his huge contract he probably is out of the league (though i think the bonus paid to him keeps him around this year). Ironically he can still play a productive role as a #3 WR for the Bills if Parrish, Reed, or Davis should beat him out. They need his speed on the field in 3 WR formations to warp the defense.

 

Shelton- I think the Bills have already decided to minimize the rolr of the FB in this year's O and he will only play formations where they need a full house backfield. #WR sets and even two TEs will make more sense for the Bills running something like the St. L O or in the redzone. I think Shelton will fall victim to this formation decision. If he bad, or a youngster is good I think he even gets cut.

 

Posey- I think his fate actually may be out of his hands as if TKO comes back to start it gets pretty crowded for the amount of money in his contract. The post I responded to surprised me as Crowell who was extended and who filled in admirably for TKO last year was not on his list of starters. I think will get the SLB starting nod unless he needs to start for TKO again. The addition of Watson in a trade (which makes proving to be good enough to keep on this team a hotseat issue for him) makes it a hotseat issue for Posey.

 

There will be a few fghts for positions (Kelsay/Denney as LDE starter) but I see guys either making the team as starters or sayin bye-bye. There will be the usual crowd scenes at back-up RB where I think the loser of the Williams/Gates battle will be gone and 3rd TE where I think the loser of the Newfeld Cieslak battle will be gone but in general I think we will go into camp with things pretty set.

[ganesh]

I would add Schobel to that list.

723121[/snapback]

 

Schoebel needs to be more consistent. He gets quite a bit of his sacks in

garbage time and/or against weak teams....He needs to play at a level where

he demands double-teaming, so that frees up Kelsay or Denney to have a

a mismatch. But he is almost there.

[Mickey]

Schoebel needs to be more consistent. He gets quite a bit of his sacks in

garbage time and/or against weak teams....He needs to play at a level where

he demands double-teaming, so that frees up Kelsay or Denney to have a

a mismatch.  But he is almost there.

723155[/snapback]

Schobel is as good as he is ever going to be. Opinions vary on just how good that is. Many share your opinion that most of his sacks come against the weaker teams but that is probably true of every DE. My opinion is that he is a serviceable if unspectacular DE. If we didn't have so many other far more problematic holes on the roster, we might consider an upgrade here but for now, we can't afford it. Someday we might have a shot at a truly special talent at DE, maybe not quite a Bruce Smith but at least something a lot closer to that level than Schobel. When we do, Schobel isn't good enough for us to forgo that opportunity.

[Pyrite Gal]

Schobel is as good as he is ever going to be.  Opinions vary on just how good that is.  Many share your opinion that most of his sacks come against the weaker teams but that is probably true of every DE.  My opinion is that he is a serviceable if unspectacular DE.  If we didn't have so many other far more problematic holes on the roster, we might consider an upgrade here but for now, we can't afford it.  Someday we might have a shot at a truly special talent at DE, maybe not quite a Bruce Smith but at least something a lot closer to that level than Schobel.  When we do, Schobel isn't good enough for us to forgo that opportunity.

723336[/snapback]

 

I think the big thing in causing a difference in Schoble production type #s this year will be that he is going to be employedquite differently in the Cover 2 than in the zone blitz scheme.

 

Schobel actually shed a few pounds a couple of years ago so that he could be more athletic and fall back downfield to cover receivers in first the short zone (within 10 yards of the LOS) and then later into the medium zone in pass coverage.

 

In the cover 2, Schobel will not have the pass coverage duty necessitated by the zone blitz as sometimes even the DE would fall back into coverage when the blitz was supposed to come from the LBs or even the DBs.

 

I must admit as the season wore on and it became clear we were not going anywhere last year (even with a huge win streak like the 2004) I paid less specific attention to the D play calls,

 

However, if this switch results in Schobel focusing more exclusively on rushing the passer rahther than pass coverage sometimes, we may see his sack #s increase without requiring any better performance from Schobel as a player.

 

The interesting thing to watch is that I assume with the DTs being called upon more to penetrate and guess which holes they should shoot, we will see the LBs need to run stop more and also the DEs show strength against the run and stand their ground on outside runs. It is this issue of lack of strength at the POA (or more often the case as a young player poor leverage so that he could emply his stength) which was the problem for Schobel in the past.