Competition for spots

[Pyrite Gal]

There are a lot of questions as to whether the winner of competitions for various positions will be an adequate NFL starter or not, but certainly one of the hallmarks of the new regime with the cuts and acquisitions they made has been to increase competitions for slots between players.

 

This is a welcome change IMHO as one of the mistakes of the old regime was to simply choose who would be starter based on their alleged football wisdom and then the team suffered badly when the guaranteed event that is going to occur amongst some of their choices did not prove adequate.

 

These are the competitions and almosst certain starters I see. There have been numerous posts that simply took the easy route of trashing players, but the predictions which do interest me is why folks think particular players will take starting roles.

 

#1 WR- There is question IMHO that Evans wins out as the go-to guy though there are question which confront him as to whether he is ready to be #1 though his production so far has been impressive.

 

LT- Gandy is pretty much a lock and should be adequate but not much more as he proved last year.

 

LG- Reyes is second on the depth chart to Preston but Reyes should win the role and be a definite upgrade over Anderson (though that may not be saying much).

 

C- Fowler also appears to be a lock here as his back-up Geisinger would not appear to ready at all. Preston makes more sense as the #2 C and gets first shot at #1 if there are any injury or performance issues for Fowler. Foowler was fine starting for the Vikes last year during their 6 game winning streak and while questions about his durability and ability to start 16 are more than legit, the notion he is not capable of playing winning starting C in the NFL does not seem based on real events.

 

RG- Villarial is slated as starter, but what used to be nicks he played through are now injuries which cost him a couple of starts. Preston should challenge here most of all, but Villarial probably starts until the injury bug and age knock him out.

 

RT- Peters also appears to be a lock here and his adequate play at RT last year and the ballyhoo from his press agent JMac has some even talking LT for him. Yet, you gotta walk before your run and RT is proably it.

 

TE- Royal seems almost certainly to be the man here as Everett is essentially a rookie since he will be playing in his first year. Folks love the pass so they are not sold at all on Royal, but our OL issues (even though they are clearly much improved over last year's starters) make a 6th lineman an essential thing for us. Royal suited up for 15 and 14 the last two years so the IR issues which ended his '03 seem to be solved and he looks like the man.

 

#2 WR- PP has the job on the depth chart, but his failure as a #1 or to catch fire or cr catch on in Dallas raises legit questions, His performance as a #2 in 02 and objective testimonials that his speed is still there point to him winning this job. He will face real competition though from Parrish who did show signs of the open field ability which got him drafted last year. Folks badmouth him due to his size and his recent injury, but the success of the Smurfs and rule changes which have even further liberated WRs indicate this may be a fught. Still I think it is early in his already short career and I expect PP to win the competition.

 

QB- JP is the favorite due to what he brought to the draft, but not only is Nall a wildcard, but Holcomb may bring the same vet judgment to the passing game which made Johnson a more effective QB thab Culpepper at MN last year, though Culpepper is by far a better athlete. My sense is that JP wins this battle as no one will assert themselves and the default gets the job. However, if Fairchldl and the Bills get the short passing game with RAC successfully installed, you may see enough success from KH for him to win the job.

 

RB- WM wins the job and if we have to go with Thomas it will be a long season. I like Thomas to give WM a blow from time to time, but this is WN's job.

 

FB- The best thing about Sheltons play after last year is that I like 3 WR sets.

 

RDE- Schobel had some very impressive sack #s from a player who actually covered downfield a bunch in our zone blitz. This may be a break out year for him unless he needs to spend time or deal with doubles a lot helping out the DTs.

 

RDT- Anderson has the depth chart slot, but I think the Bills will put their best players on the field and run a heavy rotation even if McCargo does not step up to command a starting job. Our DTs will be called upon to penetrate and disrupt from what little we know for sure about the Cover 2. I was neither comfortable with him in the traditional DT run stuffing role last year nor see him showing much in terms of a first step as a penetrator. I hope McCargo excels so much he demands a start, but I doubt this and see us with a less than adequate Anderson as RDT.

 

LDT- Triplett looks like a good pick-up given his numbers last year. Folks labeling him a part timer because Indy used him extensively as a sub and only a starter in a minority of their games, actually make a good case for Triplett. You mean he produced those numbers as a part-timer? Get e'em signed and we did.

 

LDE- I think this may actually be a tight competition between 2 platers who on the face of it may well prove to be inadequate as LDE starters unless they can do well playing some game style they have never played as a pro. I was surprised though not shocked that the resigned Denny. I think he has an unusual skill set for a DE because he is very tall (with a Ted Hendricks like wingspan) but despite some initial problems that he apparently bent his body coming out of a stance which made it difficult for him to have any strength at the POA, he imptoved to be an OK DL player. It turned out that he is actually quite agile and his ability to read plays well and also cover passes down field made him adequate at the very least in the zone blits.

 

Yet, it is unclear to me whether he will be able to play a pass rusher role as an LDE in the Cover 2. He proved to be fairly stout against the run and was even used as an interior lineman in the zone blitz at times. How he is employed by Farell/Jauron will make a nig difference in his effectiveness.

 

He will be in competion with Chris Kelsay who I thought showed good development his first two years. However, je along with virtually the entire Bills D imploded last year. He was good when he played well due to his constant motor. However, it remain questionable how useful this skill will be if the Bills Cover 2 calls for quick penetration and defeating the opponent with your first move if his bread and butter is never saying die.

 

I really have no idea (as no poster does) exctly how the Bills D is going to be employed and I really do not even have a good guess as to which of these two wins out or whether that winner will be adequate in this fans\ view.

 

WLB- TKO's recovery will tell the tale. Right now the word sounds pretty good as he is expected to be ready to practice in camp and the Bills say they will be conservative in utilizing him by choice as part of his recovery. Even assumingh this is true and not merely the hopeful attitude essential to full recovery or misdirection so opponents do not pick on the injury, accidents happen and recovery is a one step at a time process. At any rate even 80% of this multi-time Pro Bowler is better than 100% of many LBs so one must hope for the best. I felt quite pleased with Crowell stepping out of the #2 MLB role to start for TKO and if we have to do this so be it.

 

MLB- Fletcher is the certain starter. Folks are whining about his age, but he shows no signs of age in his stats where once again he led the Bills in tackles last year by a huge amount. Complaints about him having trouble in pass coverage seem to be based solely on his being shorter than the norm for LBs. However, if one thinks age is an issue then they also have to admit that his experience will be quite helpful to him if we adopt a Tampa 2 which has him playing centerfield in the deep zone. Forther, he got credit for so many tackles because he has shown the motor to play sideline to sideline which also lends itself to centerfield duty.

 

The final fact is that he has been employed as the KR guy on short kicks and demonstrated the ability to judge balls well in flight and to handle them well when he caught the. This skills will likely make him a formidable pass defender in the Cover 2. His back-up on the chart is Ezekial whose prime role is to make us hope Fletch is never hurt. However the acquisition of Watson likely gives us a reliable back-up that will not make us stop praying for LF's health but should comfortably give him a blow if he gets tired covering a bunch of field in a Tampa 2.

 

SLB- Here is where we will likely see big time competition as Crowell showed that he is going to eventually be a starter for this team and Posey last year finally showed some weakeness which was detectable in the being bad and clear anecdotes of him bein a dollar short and a day late on some pass rushes. Fans complained about Posey in 03 and 04, but these complaints were reduced to seeming little more than fan whining as no one could point to bad statistical #s which would probably be the case if he was so bad (if mere fans can easily see something at least a few of the NFL idiots who are paid to analyze this would see it and pick on him and exploit him if he was so bad) or at least one should easily be able to cite examples where opponents beat him coverage or broke his tackles for TDs or long gains if he was so bad that he should have been cut. However, this evidence simply did not exist in 03 and 04 when he logged major minutes on a good D. Last year the D he played a big role in sucked and he got beat in a few anecdotes. His contract is big enough and the LB corps is deep with Haggan, Stamer, of course Crowell and now former NFL starter Watson as back-ups and Posey is probably still around due to the TKO questions. The Sam position will be an interesting watch this pre-season.

 

LCB- McGee looks like a certain starter here. He actually may be our #1 talent CB after a disappointing year for NC last year and actually contributes more to this team as a KR guy than a CB. I like him and his game a lot.

 

FS- Folks labeling TV as a clear candidate for being cut yesterday seem to ignore the fact that he led a team that registered far too few turnovers last year that he tied for the lead in both INTs and fumbles recovered. The switch in scheme to a cover 2 probably benefits no player more than TV as the new scheme goes toward the strength of his game as the safeties have centerfield pass coverage duty primarily and away from one of the biggest complaints folks had about him as the zone blitz required him to tackle like an LB. Even the claims the claims that he is slated to be replaced this year by the talented 3 DB we took in the first four rounds ignores the fact that Youbouty and Simpson specifically need the schooling all rookies need to become vets. When you add that the third DB will likely be an immediate starter the on field coaching provided by the "old man" will be a definite asset.

 

Older players can hit the wall in their productivy suddenly and nicks they used to play through can lead them to be forced to sit, but I really have to laugh at some of the anti-TV tirades some launch (which often seem to be inspired by folks blaming unions for our woes or the NFLPA for ruining the most popular and profitable sports in America.

 

SS- Whitmer almost certainly starts as even if he is not all he is cracked up to be, it is doubtful that ST whiz Bowens is up to starting and we know Coy Wire is not.

 

RCB- NC is the almost cetain starter and actually though his tag does not bode well for his future as a Bill and the team's sudden surplus of DB talent, it probably is the best situation for the 06 squad as NC will have every inspiration to play well this year.

 

I'm glad I did this as actually or starting line-up looks a lot clearer than I would have guessed after such a dismal season. Actually 16 or so of the 22 starting slots look pretty settled as best as I can tell. Of the questionable slots, I feel very confortable with competition producing an adequate player in 4 cases (including the QB question which I am not a slave about as many football fans and soap opera types may be) and it really is the DL which I think will determine our fate in a big way.

[Nanker]

May the best men win!

[inkman]

For the most part I enjoyed and agreed with your analysis, but I thought I would add a little comentary to some of your thoughts.

 

 

 

#1 WR- There is question IMHO that Evans wins out as the go-to guy though there are question which confront him as to whether he is ready to be #1 though his production so far has been impressive.

 

Whether or not he is ready, he is going to be our # 1. No one else on the roster is even close, IMHO of coarse.

 

He will face real competition though from Parrish who did show signs of the open field ability which got him drafted last year. Folks badmouth him due to his size and his recent injury, but the success of the Smurfs and rule changes which have even further liberated WRs indicate this may be a fught.

 

I'm going to badmaouth Parrish as well. He may have shown signs of open field ability, but he also showed signs that being a starting reciever in this league is not in his near future. Considering our other starter is only 5' 11, I can not think his opposite will be 5'7" (don't tell me he is two inches taller).

 

RB- WM wins the job and if we have to go with Thomas it will be a long season. I like Thomas to give WM a blow from time to time, but this is WN's job.

 

On a related note, grass is green, the sky is blue...

[inkman]

RB- WM wins the job and if we have to go with Thomas it will be a long season. I like Thomas to give WM a blow from time to time, but this is WN's job.

 

Will this lead to more or less playing time for A-Train? I'm on the fence...

[Pyrite Gal]

RB- WM wins the job and if we have to go with Thomas it will be a long season.  I like Thomas to give WM a blow from time to time, but this is WN's job.

 

Will this lead to more or less playing time for A-Train?  I'm on the fence...

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A lot depends on how Fairchild decides to use WM. I think TC was in error letting him sit on 3rd down, though I can see why he did this because there is some potential that even the 2 down usage led to overuse of WM in his second full year. A theory that WM's 2nd half downturn was in part due to him not being able to keep on his first half pace should at leadt be considered.

 

I doubt this was actually the case as WM saw heavy usage his first year of plsy in the 10+ games he started and showed no signs of a similar drop-off and at the end of the season WM put up over 100 yards.

 

One of the big issues was that as it turned out Shaud Williams appears to be an occaisional 3rd down change-up and receiver at best and not a consistent go-to 3rd down guy. I think the other big issue was that it was clear that TD had given up on this season when he handed the job to JP for training last year.

 

When the D responded to this by giving up WM showed limited football character by giving up as well. WM is no leader. My sense is that if he runs like he did in 04 and half of 05 I do not care. He will not lead others and actually has little self-moticvation on a loser.

 

What the Bills need to do is be more of a winner overall (or at least competitive) and I suspect the WM issues will be non-issues as motivation will be provided by this external force.

 

Overall, I think WM will never be Marshall Faulk, but should be adequate as a recieving threat in a Fairchild O to make it work. A-Train will have a chance at a good number of carries as increased 3rd down usage is likely to mean decreased WM usage the first 2 downs as he needs more rests.

 

If A-Train is up to the challenge it will mean more carries for him, but if he does not produce it will not.

 

Tne uncertainties that Fairchild faces as he installs a St. L type O are:

 

1. Will the WRs do a reasonable imitation of the high-flying St. L crew- I think yes as Evans, PP, Parrish and even #4 Reed who has done the #3 job once before and should have good RAC as a former RB should make this work.

 

2. Will they be sufficient at TE- I say yes to this as well. Royal will not be an adequate or reasonable open field reciever, but who cares as he has more to contribute this O working as a 5th blocker for the OL rather than as a Tony Gonzales which he ain't. I think folks are to addicted to the typical TE model which actually many teams do not have. The Bills are gonna adopt an O strategy which essentially recognizes this reality.

 

3. Will the OL be adequate- Initially I think it will be as the probable 06 starters are better than the actual 05 starters. Gandy, Reyes, Fowler, Villarial, and Peters all played adequate to very good OL at their positions last year. However, outside of Reyes at RG rather than LG, none of these players played 16 games at a very good level and even Gandy as the only consistent starter at his position was even adequate for 16 games last year. As the season goes on good back-ups will be critical and outside of Preston for Villarial when this old man has to sit, I do not see the players here.

 

4. I have no real idea which of the three QBs will prove to be adequate, but I think we have larger worries about the O as likely one of these three will turn out to be adequate. I think it is mostly a question of how fearful of the unknown fans are as though JP is the lead candidate among the 3, its no certainty or probability he will be the one. However, if the braintrust is good at pulling the plug and not wasting precious snaps on the majority chances of failure of each QB, there actually can be a majority chance of success of one of these 3. its uncertain what the outcome will be but I am not worried about this as I suspect we will find one to work out.

 

5. Will WM be of good use as a rusher like the first half of last season and doing a cut rate imitation of Faulk as a pass catching threat. I like him losing a bit of weight while appparently maintaining his strength with workouts at the U this off-season. His bizarre baby-momma comments and not showing up for the voluntary practices means that one would be a fool to get pregnant with WM. However, all I really care about is on field performance and since I and my friends are passing on sleeping with him I think he will be fine as a player.

[inkman]

A lot depends on how Fairchild decides to use WM.  I think TC was in error letting him sit on 3rd down, though I can see why he did this because there is some potential that even the 2 down usage led to overuse of WM in his second full year.  A theory that WM's 2nd half downturn was in part due to him not being able to keep on his first half pace should at leadt be considered.

 

I doubt this was actually the case as WM saw heavy usage his first year of plsy in the 10+ games he started and showed no signs of a similar drop-off and at the end of the season WM put up over 100 yards.

 

One of the big issues was that as it turned out Shaud Williams appears to be an occaisional 3rd down change-up and receiver at best and not a consistent go-to 3rd down  guy.  I think the other big issue was that it was clear that TD had given up on this season when he handed the job to JP for training last year. 

 

When the D responded to this by giving up WM showed limited football character by giving up as well.  WM is no leader.  My sense is that if he runs like he did in 04 and half of 05 I do not care.  He will not lead others and actually has little self-moticvation on a loser.

 

What the Bills need to do is be more of a winner overall (or at least competitive) and I suspect the WM issues will be non-issues as motivation will be provided by this external force.

 

Overall, I think WM will never be Marshall Faulk, but should be adequate as a recieving threat in a Fairchild O to make it work.  A-Train will have a chance at a good number of carries as increased 3rd down usage is likely to mean decreased WM usage the first 2 downs as he needs more rests.

 

If A-Train is up to the challenge it will mean more carries for him, but if he does not produce it will not.

 

Tne uncertainties that Fairchild faces as he installs a St. L type O are:

 

1. Will the WRs do a reasonable imitation of the high-flying St. L crew- I think yes as Evans, PP, Parrish and even #4 Reed who has done the #3 job once before and should have good RAC as a former RB should make this work.

 

2. Will they be sufficient at TE- I say yes to this as well.  Royal will not be an adequate or reasonable open field reciever, but who cares as he has more to contribute this O working as a 5th blocker for the OL rather than as a Tony Gonzales which he ain't.  I think folks are to addicted to the typical TE model which actually many teams do not have.  The Bills are gonna adopt an O strategy which essentially recognizes this reality.

 

3. Will the OL be adequate- Initially I think it will be as the probable 06 starters are better than the actual 05 starters.  Gandy, Reyes, Fowler, Villarial, and Peters all played adequate to very good OL at their positions last year.  However, outside of Reyes at RG rather than LG, none of these players played 16 games at a very good level and even Gandy as the only consistent starter at his position was even adequate for 16 games last year.  As the season goes on good back-ups will be critical and outside of Preston for Villarial when this old man has to sit, I do not see the players here.

 

4. I have no real idea which of the three QBs will prove to be adequate, but I think we have larger worries about the O as likely one of these three will turn out to be adequate.  I think it is mostly a question of how fearful of the unknown fans are as though JP is the lead candidate among the 3, its no certainty or probability he will be the one.  However, if the braintrust is good at pulling the plug and not wasting precious snaps on the majority chances of failure of each QB, there actually can be a  majority chance of success of one of these 3.  its uncertain what the outcome will be but I am not worried about this as I suspect we will find one to work out.

 

5. Will WM be of good use as a rusher like the first half of last season and doing a cut rate imitation of Faulk as a pass catching threat.  I like him losing a bit of weight while appparently maintaining his strength with workouts at the U this off-season.  His bizarre baby-momma comments and not showing up for the voluntary practices means that one would be a fool to get pregnant with WM.  However, all I really care about is on field performance and since I and my friends are passing on sleeping with him I think he will be fine as a player.

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and I was just trying to make a weiner joke...

[stuckincincy]

MLB- Fletcher is the certain starter.  Folks are whining about his age, but he shows no signs of age in his stats where once again he led the Bills in tackles last year by a huge amount.  Complaints about him having trouble in pass coverage seem to be based solely on his being shorter than the norm for LBs.  However, if one thinks age is an issue then they also have to admit that his experience will be quite helpful to him if we adopt a Tampa 2 which has him playing centerfield in the deep zone.  Forther, he got credit for so many tackles because he has shown the motor to play sideline to sideline which also lends itself to centerfield duty.

 

 

721741[/snapback]

 

Well, consider that he may have been the last man standing...pretty hard to put a shine on last season..