falling into the trap

[BuffOrange]

I don't recall people saying Brown, Winfield or Clements were reaches when they were drafted.  Didn't they pretty much go about where they were supposed to go in those drafts?

720634[/snapback]

 

Yes

[Orton's Arm]

Reach or Value is based upon what we(each individual) think.  We base that opinion on what the media tells us(unless the person is so knowledgeable they can do their own scouting).

When a player is taken before the consensus, he is called a reach.

Whitner was taken significantly ahead of where almost all mock drafts had him going. There were those who didn't see him as a first round pick at all.

 

How many other times has this happened? How many other players have gone significantly ahead of where mock drafts had him going? Not many, which is why Whitner would very probably have been available at #15.

 

Nor is there anything sacred about Whitner, unless the Bills are fully convinced he'll have a significantly better career than the Plan B pick for 15th overall. But let's say there wasn't anyone the Bills liked at 15th overall. They could have traded down again, to say somewhere in the low 20s; using the resulting pick to take McCargo. This course of action would have left them with six picks on the first day of the draft, instead of the three first day picks they ended up with.

 

With six picks on the first day of the draft, the Bills could have addressed so many needs! Two of those picks for SS and DT? Fine. But another could go towards a LDE, while the other three could be used on the offensive line.

[Ramius]

You’re correct in assuming Whitner’s true value is an unknown, as you pointed out he could be a great player, making the selection justified.But as of now we know the majority of teams in this league find safeties drafted in round 2 or later .  We also know we could be an average team this year. Regardless of how Whitner turns out we have every right to question why the Bills would paint themselves in a corner by making Whitner so indispensable.

 

We were forced to draft Whitner because Jauron decided to play the Cover 2 and he was the only guy who could fill a gaping hole on this team.  In the midst of what could be a rebuilding year this urgency probably took us out of any trade considerations.  Even if Whitner does work out I hope Marv and Jauron give us a little more freedom to work with next draft.

720560[/snapback]

 

The NFL is changing. You are seeing a lot more Safeties getting drafted earlier that what was the norm. Team want athletic playmaking safeties, and are finding them in round 1. If you look, a safety has been taken in the top half of round 1 every draft since 2001. Sometimes, multiple safeties have been taken. Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu, Roy Williams, Sean Taylor are some names of highly drafted safeties.

 

IMO, it has a lot to do with the "win-now" mentality of the NFL. A safety can be reasonably expected to step right in and start from day 1 for his team.

[Ramius]

Whitner was taken significantly ahead of where almost all mock drafts had him going.  There were those who didn't see him as a first round pick at all. 

 

How many other times has this happened?  How many other players have gone significantly ahead of where mock drafts had him going?  Not many, which is why Whitner would very probably have been available at #15. 

 

Nor is there anything sacred about Whitner, unless the Bills are fully convinced he'll have a significantly better career than the Plan B pick for 15th overall.  But let's say there wasn't anyone the Bills liked at 15th overall.  They could have traded down again, to say somewhere in the low 20s; using the resulting pick to take McCargo.  This course of action would have left them with six picks on the first day of the draft, instead of the three first day picks they ended up with. 

 

With six picks on the first day of the draft, the Bills could have addressed so many needs!  Two of those picks for SS and DT?  Fine.  But another could go towards a LDE, while the other three could be used on the offensive line.

720646[/snapback]

 

In 2002, the cincinnatti bengals were laughed at for taking some "huge reach" at #10 overall. Kiper bashed them for taking a player that wasnt supposed to go until the mid-20's. The media bashed them, saying they were still the same old bungles.

 

That huge reach was LT Levi Jones. That huge reach turned out to be a cornerstone in their turn-around. I wonder what kiper and co think of the pick now, seeing how levi is going to ink a 30-40 million deal next offseason?

 

I'd liek to see the media graded on their mock drafted. But thats why they are the media, because they can spout their mouths off and have no accountability for whatever they say.

[Bill from NYC]

I wonder what kiper and co think of the pick now, seeing how levi is going to ink a 30-40 million deal next offseason?

720651[/snapback]

 

I am seriously thinking closer to 55, perhaps even 70 mil.

[Ramius]

I am seriously thinking closer to 55, perhaps even 70 mil. 

720653[/snapback]

 

while i dont think he'll get pace/jones money, he'll break the bank. He wont hit the FA market, because cinci will re-sign him or tag him. Then again, with the higher cap now in place, i guess i shouldnt be surprised to see him haul in 50 mil over 8 years. That being said, i wouldnt mind Buffalo faxing a 6-7 year 35 mil offer over to steinbach at 12:01am on the 1st day of FA.

[Bill from NYC]

That being said, i wouldnt mind Buffalo faxing a 6-7 year 35 mil offer over to steinbach at 12:01am on the 1st day of FA.

720654[/snapback]

 

I hear ya, but the cap is going up yet again in 07. I expect him to get "Hutch" money (approx. 50 mil). The Bills will have millions upon millions of cap space, IF RW wants to spend it.

[Ramius]

I hear ya, but the cap is going up yet again in 07. I expect him to get "Hutch" money (approx. 50 mil). The Bills will have millions upon millions of cap space, IF RW wants to spend it.

720657[/snapback]

 

A lot fo that will depend on how good the bengals do this season. if they crash and burn and dont make the playoffs, he wont get more than 40. Its was the super bowl run/alexanders record year that really got hutch's name out, and probably got him 10-15 million more. But, with the cap going up, i guess theres a realistic chance of cinci re-signing both.

[ganesh]

I don't recall people saying Brown, Winfield or Clements were reaches when they were drafted.  Didn't they pretty much go about where they were supposed to go in those drafts?

720634[/snapback]

 

My answer was not to say whether they were reaches or not....Your original

message was

 

I am not likely to buy into the concept of drafting for need because such drafts have landed us the likes of Taveres Tillman, Eric Flowers and Mike Williams.

 

This team had holes and needs just about everywhere except punter.  It could have drafted the best player available and it still likely would have filled a need

720634[/snapback]

 

All I said was that the Bills DID INDEED select in the draft for NEEDS like a

Brown or a Winfield or Clements and they succeeded....not necessarily going

after some one as the next best player available....

 

BTW, in the 2001 draft MW was the next best player available as per the

draft boards and also was a need player and see how it worked out....

[BuffOrange]

In 2002, the cincinnatti bengals were laughed at for taking some "huge reach" at #10 overall. Kiper bashed them for taking a player that wasnt supposed to go until the mid-20's. The media bashed them, saying they were still the same old bungles.

 

That huge reach was LT Levi Jones. That huge reach turned out to be a cornerstone in their turn-around. I wonder what kiper and co think of the pick now, seeing how levi is going to ink a 30-40 million deal next offseason?

 

I'd liek to see the media graded on their mock drafted. But thats why they are the media, because they can spout their mouths off and have no accountability for whatever they say.

720651[/snapback]

 

Dwight Freeney was considered a reach too. So was Quincy Carter.

So yeah, some reaches succeed and some don't, just like guys who aren't considered reaches. I like Kiper but I don't care much what he considers a reach. If Modrak thought Whitner was the best DB in the draft, who am I to argue?

 

Still, I bet a lot of you Whitner guys will be hard-pressed to avoid criticizing the draft when whoever our QB is gets sacked 10+ times in the first two games. I know there wasn't much value at the OL position when we picked, but it seems like we've been saying that for years now. At some point you have to find a way to improve at that position, whether it be trading down, signing FA's who don't suck, whatever.

[Orton's Arm]

In 2002, the cincinnatti bengals were laughed at for taking some "huge reach" at #10 overall. Kiper bashed them for taking a player that wasnt supposed to go until the mid-20's. The media bashed them, saying they were still the same old bungles.

 

That huge reach was LT Levi Jones.

In hindsight, Levi Jones looks like a great pick for two reasons:

- He worked out exceptionally well

- The 2002 draft was weak. This means two things: 1) Had the Bengals traded down and lost out on Jones, the player they would have taken instead would probably have been lousy. 2) The extra draft picks they would have gotten for trading down would have been unlikely to have helped much.

 

For Whitner to be the next Levi Jones, he'd have to work out as well as Jones has, while at the same time the 2006 draft would have to turn out as badly as the 2002 draft did. It's possible both these things will happen, though very unlikely.

[Scraps]

My answer was not to say whether they were reaches or not....Your original

message was

All I said was that the Bills DID INDEED select in the draft for NEEDS like a

Brown or a Winfield or Clements and they succeeded....not necessarily going

after some one as the next best player available....

 

BTW,  in the 2001 draft MW was the next best player available as per the

draft boards and also was a need player and see how it worked out....

720668[/snapback]

 

Sometimes it works out that the best palyer available where you draft fills a need. In those cases, you essentially get the daily double. That was the case with Brown and Winfield.

 

Odd that you bring up Clements since TD traded down 9 slots to get him. Had Levy done the same thing with Whitner, there wouldn't be nearly the number of complaints about this years draft.

[Bill from NYC]

Sometimes it works out that the best palyer available where you draft fills a need.  In those cases, you essentially get the daily double.  That was the case with Brown and Winfield.

 

Odd that you bring up Clements since TD traded down 9 slots to get him.  Had Levy done the same thing with Whitner, there wouldn't be nearly the number of complaints about this years draft.

720688[/snapback]

 

No, they traded down 7 slots.

[dave mcbride]

No, they traded down 7 slots.

720690[/snapback]

they were able to do that because they were very confident no one would take him before the giants drafted at 22. the giants wanted him, but the bills went before them at 21. the giants ended up with will allen, a decent player but no clements.

 

regarding whitner, the bills did not have the confidence that they could trade down to 15 and still get him. ernie accorsi indicated that he thought whitner was one of the -- and possibly the -- best defensive back in the draft. it's a good bet that he wasn't the only one who thought this way.

 

for more on this issue, check out the usually unreliable pete prisco's column on overrated players. a good third of them are hard hitting strong safeties who can't cover. it's the new achilles heel for teams, and the good ones are doing their damnedest to shore up that position by getting guys who can cover. since they toughened up the rules on contact two years ago, these safeties are being exposed like never before (as the bills learned last year). whitner can tackle and can cover, which is why he was such a hot commodity in the bills eyes.

 

people in the nfl know this stuff, but bozos like merrill hoge and sean salisbury are so allergic to any real analysis and are so loud to boot that most fans have bought into the ridiculoust feeding frenzy surrounding the drafting of whitner.

[Scraps]

No, they traded down 7 slots.

720690[/snapback]

 

The article I was reading was wrong. It is still a good example of filling more than 1 need and getting good value instead of tunnel vision.

[Ramius]

The article I was reading was wrong.  It is still a good example of filling more than 1 need and getting good value instead of tunnel vision.

720699[/snapback]

 

i'd rather have 1 star player over 2 ok players and more draft "value"

[Orton's Arm]

i'd rather have 1 star player over 2 ok players and more draft "value"

Me too. The reasons I feel trading out of the #8 slot would have made sense are these:

- The Bills could probably have taken Whitner at #15.

- In a draft like this, the second or third round pick the Bills would have obtained from the trade down could have been put to very good use.

- Had Whitner not been available, the player the Bills would have taken in his place could well have been at least as good as Whitner.

[Ramius]

Me too.  The reasons I feel trading out of the #8 slot would have made sense are these:

- The Bills could probably have taken Whitner at #15.

- In a draft like this, the second or third round pick the Bills would have obtained from the trade down could have been put to very good use.

- Had Whitner not been available, the player the Bills would have taken in his place could well have been at least as good as Whitner.

720741[/snapback]

 

and if the lions or rams take whitner, then buffalo is SOL. theres no guarantees or no "probably" that whitner would have been there at any pick below us.

 

And the consensus NOW is that draft class is good. We'll see in a few years just how good this draft class turns out.

 

draft "value" = highly overrated

[Scraps]

i'd rather have 1 star player over 2 ok players and more draft "value"

720729[/snapback]

 

I'm skeptical that Whitner is a star in the Roy William or Sean Taylor category. If he was, he would have been projected to go much higher than where most prognoscticators put him.

 

Did you think that Clements and Travis Henry were bad picks for the Bills? That's what they got for trading down.

[ganesh]

The article I was reading was wrong.  It is still a good example of filling more than 1 need and getting good value instead of tunnel vision.

720699[/snapback]

 

Sometimes you chose to trade down, get the extra pick and add an extra player...sometimes your mind is just fixed on a special player (hopefully, that

is what he turns out to) and you don't want to take the chance....