falling into the trap

[Orton's Arm]

yeah - Holcomb was really slick at throwing that 2 yard pass on 3rd and 8.

 

I wonder how long it will take JP to become that polished?

A very, very long time!

[Dibs]

As I've predicted a 6-10 season, I guess I'm one of those who you see as having an overly negative view. 

719100[/snapback]

I don't see anyone predicting a 6-10 season as overly negative at all. To me that is well inside the realms of high possibility. It's the 2-14 predictors that I find odd. The 12-4 guys(are there any?) are just sort of amusing.

[SlamnSam]

I don't see anyone predicting a 6-10 season as overly negative at all.  To me that is well inside the realms of high possibility.  It's the 2-14 predictors that I find odd.  The 12-4 guys(are there any?) are just sort of amusing. 

719528[/snapback]

 

 

I think having Marv part of the team again guarantees 6 wins with no talent. I think that this is a good team besides the recent breakdowns in years past. Does anyone really think our defense is as bad as it was last year? I don’t think so and I think we have some very talented players here and once the defense starts to click again like its track record suggest then I think the offense will feed off of that chemistry.

[Orton's Arm]

once the defense starts to click again like its track record suggest

Track record? Track record! What track record? Are you referring to its track record in 2004 of padding its stats against weaker offenses (of which it faced plenty), but folding when it mattered most?

 

Let's look at that 2004 defense, position by position. After each starter's name, I've listed his present status.

 

LDE: Kelsay/Denny. Present status: Not good enough

DT: Sam Adams. Gone

DT: Pat Williams. Gone

RDE: Aaron Schobel. Good, and still here.

OLB: Jeff Posey. Not good enough

MLB: London Fletcher. Good player who's getting on in years

OLB: Takeo Spikes. Hopefully will fully recover from injury

SS: Lawyer Milloy. Gone.

FS: Troy Vincent. Too old.

CB: Nate Clements. Future status/level of play uncertain

CB: Terrence McGee. Good, and still here

 

The 2004 defense was good but overrated. Of the players who made it what it was, three are gone outright, another two have questions due to age or injuries, and another two weren't that good to begin with. That leaves just four solid starters from 2004 upon whom the 2006 defense can confidently rely: Schobel, Fletcher, Clements, and McGee. Of those four, Fletcher starts to become a question mark in 2007 due to his age, while Clements becomes a real question mark because of his contract status.

 

Obviously, things may not be as bad as this. If Clements re-signs, if Spikes fully recovers, and if Fletcher plays well at an older age, then come 2007, the Bills could have as many as five good starters from 2004. On the other hand, it could be as few as two. Either way, this defense was in need of a major infusion of talent if it was to become among the league's best, which is why the Bills' draft focused so heavily on defense.

[krazykat]

here I go again!  The more I read the more optimistic I become.  I do think we are headed in the right direction,however, the facts suggest 6 to 8 wins at best.  New coaches,unproven QB, weak linesetc.  Besides, I want to compete for the Bowl not slide into the middle of the pack.  Lets stick to a 2 year plan.  Play the best of the young guys including QB, keep or trade Nate ,and be super aggressive next offseason especially on D.  Be haapy with a hard playing high energy team.  WE are at least 6 really good players away  assuming we keep our young guys and we have a QB on the roster.

718928[/snapback]

6-8?

 

With all the newness?

 

not a chance. consider yourself lucky if we are the same 5-11.

[Orton's Arm]

consider yourself lucky if we are the same 5-11.

I'd prefer 1-15 to 5-11. 1-15 gives us a chance to draft Brady Quinn if we need him, or to trade the pick away if we don't.

[BADOLBILZ]

At first people posted we would suck by the dozen, so naturally the few that think we can win 9 or more got fed up and started speaking louder. I don't see the majority here thinking we can win 9 games, and the posts of people that do always include "IF". If you’re looking at what's before us now, and throw out "IF" this is a VERY bad team. IF things like QB, WR, OL, DL, TKO, S, and DJ work out we could be much better. To get to 9 wins we would need the majority of these things to work out.

718965[/snapback]

 

Player talent is not the issue. The Bills are close enough to "average" NFL talent to win in the right circumstances. What is so often forgotten in Buffalo is that success BEGINS with coaching in the NFL. The three main reasons the Bills project to stink this year are as follows:

 

1) Dick Jauron........not gameday sharp or innovative, ultra-conservative, questionable leadership and authority

 

2)Perry Fewell......only hired because he knows the system and nobody else was available. A literal "shot in the dark" hire.

 

3)Steve Fairchild......turned the greatest show on turf into a relative bore, but at least he shows promise the other two don't.

 

This team will only go as far as the coaching takes them, and the coaching looks very bad. Very bad coaching + below average talent = horrible football.

[eball]

Player talent is not the issue.  The Bills are close enough to "average" NFL talent to win in the right circumstances.  What is so often forgotten in Buffalo is that success BEGINS with coaching in the NFL.  The three main reasons the Bills project to stink this year are as follows:

 

1) Dick Jauron........not gameday sharp or innovative, ultra-conservative, questionable leadership and authority

Purely your opinion. Please provide some sort of reliable evidence to back up this statement -- particularly the part about leadership and authority.

 

2)Perry Fewell......only hired because he knows the system and nobody else was available. A literal "shot in the dark" hire.

Again, purely your opinion. You're entitled to have one, but please don't present yours as if it is fact.

 

3)Steve Fairchild......turned the greatest show on turf into a relative bore,  but at least he shows promise the other two don't.

Losing the starting QB had nothing to do with that, I'm sure.

 

This team will only go as far as the coaching takes them, and the coaching looks very bad.  Very bad coaching + below average talent = horrible football.

720355[/snapback]

I respectfully disagree. The coaching staff looks stronger than it did last year. Jauron has respect from players and coaches around the league. I believe this staff will get the most out of the talent on the roster -- the key question in my mind is how much talent exists.

[Adam]

Player talent is not the issue.  The Bills are close enough to "average" NFL talent to win in the right circumstances.  What is so often forgotten in Buffalo is that success BEGINS with coaching in the NFL.  The three main reasons the Bills project to stink this year are as follows:

 

1) Dick Jauron........not gameday sharp or innovative, ultra-conservative, questionable leadership and authority

 

2)Perry Fewell......only hired because he knows the system and nobody else was available. A literal "shot in the dark" hire.

 

3)Steve Fairchild......turned the greatest show on turf into a relative bore,  but at least he shows promise the other two don't.

 

This team will only go as far as the coaching takes them, and the coaching looks very bad.  Very bad coaching + below average talent = horrible football.

720355[/snapback]

Jauron was 3rd runner up to Sherman for NFL Coach of the year a few years back, and I'm sure that Jauron did not have one of the top NFL players EVER on his team.

[Nanker]

Player talent is not the issue.  The Bills are close enough to "average" NFL talent to win in the right circumstances.  What is so often forgotten in Buffalo is that success BEGINS with coaching in the NFL.  The three main reasons the Bills project to stink this year are as follows:

 

1) Dick Jauron........not gameday sharp or innovative, ultra-conservative, questionable leadership and authority

 

2)Perry Fewell......only hired because he knows the system and nobody else was available. A literal "shot in the dark" hire.

 

3)Steve Fairchild......turned the greatest show on turf into a relative bore,  but at least he shows promise the other two don't.

 

This team will only go as far as the coaching takes them, and the coaching looks very bad.  Very bad coaching + below average talent = horrible football.

720355[/snapback]

 

1) Dick Jauron >>> Mike-with-the-looks-and-NFL-smarts-of-Kevin-Costner-Mularkey

2) Perry Fewell > Jerry "I'm-too-tired-to-mentor-'cause-I'm-on-my-way-to-becoming-a Head-Coach-even-though-I-never-learned-enough-to-be-a-Defensive-Coordinator-on-a-team-my-guru-Greg-Williams-wasn't-a-Head-Coach-for" Gray

3) Steve Fairchild >> Tom-benched-from-OC-to-QB-coach-in-mid-season-only-to-return-without-having-learned-a-!@#$ing-thing-Clements

 

Throw out Bennihana Anderson, Trey Teague, Eric Moulds and Mike Williams and allow some players who want to be here to get the practice reps and frankly I think we're better off through those subtractions. That goes double for the no-talent HCs and Coordinators we had here during the TD era.

[BADOLBILZ]

Purely your opinion.  Please provide some sort of reliable evidence to back up this statement -- particularly the part about leadership and authority.

Again, purely your opinion.  You're entitled to have one, but please don't present yours as if it is fact.

Losing the starting QB had nothing to do with that, I'm sure. 

I respectfully disagree.  The coaching staff looks stronger than it did last year.  Jauron has respect from players and coaches around the league.  I believe this staff will get the most out of the talent on the roster -- the key question in my mind is how much talent exists.

720382[/snapback]

 

You can respectfully disagree all you want, Jauron has a terrible record as a head coach, he's the one with proving to do. His new players showed how much they RESPECT him by blowing off the NEW staffs instruction. They LIKE him a lot though. Don't confuse the two. When he was in Chicago, people blamed a lot of his problems on his coordinators. "If only he would fire them" was the consensus. Sound famialar? Jauron is another in a long line of Bills coaches that hires bad assistants.

 

But you think the staff looks stronger this year? Didn't Jerry Gray have a top ranked defense the previous two years? Wasn't Mularkey's career ledger 9-7? You are aware that Jauron was about to get canned himself after two disappointing years as DC in Detroit, right? Too conservative, didn't put pressure on opposing offenses. But instead of getting the boot, he gets a promotion to head coach of our Bills. How does Perry Fewell "look" stronger than Gray? Jauron stronger than Mularkey? They "look" like a sh*t hires is what they "look" like.

 

As for Fairchild, I have some optimism for him because hopefully some of the offense that has kept the Rams in contention throughout this decade rubs off on our long putrid offense. But I watched Fairchild's Rams, and the thing that kept coming up was how this "wasn't the Rams offense we know". Everyone remembers the big comeback the Rams had in Ryan Fitzgeralds first start, but otherwise they were pretty stale.

 

I hope I'm wrong, but you guys are setting yourselves up for a rage-filled season if you somehow expect Jauron to be any better than he was at his last two stops. Expect more preposterous punts, dreadful defense and a lot of 10-17 point offensive showings because that's what this staff projects. If they exceed expectations, and somehow chicken salad is made out of this mix, then praise be.

[Pyrite Gal]

Track record?  Track record!  What track record?  Are you referring to its track record in 2004 of padding its stats against weaker offenses (of which it faced plenty), but folding when it mattered most? 

 

Let's look at that 2004 defense, position by position.  After each starter's name, I've listed his present status.

 

LDE: Kelsay/Denny.  Present status: Not good enough

DT: Sam Adams.  Gone

DT: Pat Williams.  Gone

RDE: Aaron Schobel.  Good, and still here.

OLB: Jeff Posey.  Not good enough

MLB: London Fletcher.  Good player who's getting on in years

OLB: Takeo Spikes.  Hopefully will fully recover from injury

SS: Lawyer Milloy.  Gone.

FS: Troy Vincent.  Too old.

CB: Nate Clements.  Future status/level of play uncertain

CB: Terrence McGee.  Good, and still here

 

The 2004 defense was good but overrated.  Of the players who made it what it was, three are gone outright, another two have questions due to age or injuries, and another two weren't that good to begin with.  That leaves just four solid starters from 2004 upon whom the 2006 defense can confidently rely: Schobel, Fletcher, Clements, and McGee.  Of those four, Fletcher starts to become a question mark in 2007 due to his age, while Clements becomes a real question mark because of his contract status. 

 

Obviously, things may not be as bad as this.  If Clements re-signs, if Spikes fully recovers, and if Fletcher plays well at an older age, then come 2007, the Bills could have as many as five good starters from 2004.  On the other hand, it could be as few as two.  Either way, this defense was in need of a major infusion of talent if it was to become among the league's best, which is why the Bills' draft focused so heavily on defense.

719710[/snapback]

 

While your assessment of the 2004 players appears to be "in theballpark", I think there is an alternative assessment of these individual players which is more charitable and also is "in the ballpark" in terms of possibilities". It is:

 

LDE: Kelsay/Denny. A good competition to find a player who is adequate at the position and compliment a very good player in Schobel.

 

Kelsay was poised to have a breakout season last year after good performance as a rookie in 2003 and improvement over that in 2004. Yet he was not breakout productive in 2005. The jury remains out as to whether his 2005 results were due to limitations in his play/potential or more related to him not being capable of leading but being good enough to compliment other players in a good D. The theory is that his lack of very good results last year came from the overall failure of the D to be very good as opponents caught up with our blitz a lot package and also players losses of starting DT PW, back-up DT Edwards and starting WLB TKO left an adequate player will little to compliment.

 

The key for better performance by Kelsay is not that he is unable to play at a pro level even adequatelly, but that the Cover 2 scheme needs to work reasonably so that Kelsy can perform as an adequate (or even good compliment). In addition, though it would be a very good thing if he resumed his level of development he showed his first two years so that he was more of a leader rather than simply a good compliment as a player.

 

This is possible.

 

The other good news is that we are not singly reliant of Kelsay filling in well or stepping up his game but Denney was given a contract extension and qualifies in what you wrote as actually still being here. The question is whether the Bills braintrust made an error in that he really is not good enough to deserve an extension. I think the scheme will change his usage enough from the "Ted Hendricks" type coverage role he played well enough in 2003/04 in our zone blitz package to something else in in the 2006 Bills D.

 

Our DTs in the 2006 Bills Cover 2 will need to be quick penetrators and force the opponent to make plays which our LBs will then clean-up. There is a good argument that Denny was actually a replacement for the Posey role and was more like a flexible LB than an LDE in our old zone blitz. As far as DL goes he was more likely to line up inside as a DT than as a traditional pass rushing LDE in the zone blitz package. He also ranged downfield in pass coverage in the short and even medium zone uising his long winspan and good athleticism he developed in hiw he was used last year.

 

I actually see Kelsay as a better shot than Denny for LDE usage, but our DL usage in the Cover (or more likely Tampa) 2 scheme we are likely to use is an open question as best as I can tell. Clearly there is a plan for using Denny, but I know I and I suspect others are unable at this point (and will not be able to tell for sure until we stop running the vanilla pre-season schemes and move more toward implementation of the real D.

 

DT: Sam Adams. Gone definitely and for good reason. He actually was a consideration for staying as his incredibly quick first step and penetrating ability made him a good candidate for the penetrating DT role in the Cover 2.

 

However, his replacement Triplett had even better stats for sacks and tackles than Adams whike starting far fewer games. In addition, Triplett hs logged 5 years of play while Adams is on borrowed time having logged 13 years. Finally, Adams had been more productive than anyone expected as a Bill only taking 1/4 to a max of 1/3 of the plays off whie he seemed to vary from taking at least 1/3 t as many as 1/2 the plays off at his peak (he simply was so good and his first step so quick that oppoents had to play like he may embarass them on every single play). Yet, as the D fell apart last year, the me-fosrt Adams appeared a lot and his age and temperament made him a good cut for 2006. The chances he would prove to be the player he was in 2004 were remote.

 

DT: Pat Williams. Gone. Lamentable that he is gone, but the downturn the D suffered without him last year seems to be as much to coincide with his lack of prescence as it does be caused by his not being here. In fact, the 2004 D produced it statistical results with PW sitting out a bit over 1/3 of the D snaps so the argument that he was essential to the 04 performance seems unlikely. In the new Tampa 2 mode, PW would likely have been gone this year anyway as he is more of rock-solid runstopper than the lower weight than traditionally normal for DTs we seem to want at DT and which other teams have used well.

 

RDE: Aaron Schobel. Good, and still here. Agreed. If we are gonna produce very good to excellent results, AS will need to step up his production another notch. This is interesting:

 

A. His 12 sacks, 54 tackles and him starting 16 gsmes each of his 5 years of play are high numbers in an unproductive D last year which if he should improve on them even margionally would lift him into the highest levels of DE performance.

B. Improvement in these numbers is quite possible by him as the switch from the zone blitz to the Tampa 2 style will relieve him of some of the pass coverage duty which this athletic player showed last year and he can focus his game on making moves to pressure the QB and he will need to show good leverage to use his strength to run stop when his side is the point of attack. Schobel putting up numbers which get his a Pro Bowl nod and begin to be mentioned in the same breath with DEs like Taylor will be the measure.

 

OLB: Jeff Posey. Not good enough. As easy statement to make right niow as Posey's play sucked in 2006 as the results for a Bills D within which he logged a lot of key minutes sucked. However, in 2003 and 04 the Bills D was good statistically and despite constants asks by me to produce some specific examples of poor play by Posey in 03/04 which resulted in him giving up big gains or TDs in pass coverage or being shredded at the point of attack by runners no one has provided any real world examples.

 

Posey was certainly not good enough in 2005 as is seen by the poor statistically performance of the D as a whole and several plays where he came up a little short and too late in run stopping or making sacks. However, for time period your post covers in 2004, you simply provide no specific evidence in terms of overall team perormance or specific plays to support your declaration of Posey not being good enough.

 

My sense is that uncertainty over TKO's health recovery is one of the main reason he remains penciled in as #1 of the deoth charts at the Sam LB position, buy if TKO continues on the track to recovery he seems to be on, he will get a hearty and ultimately successful challenge from Crowell as the starting strongside LB. At that point it will be a decision of whether Ralph us going to be made to pay starter money for a back-up which will be determined by whether cheaper back-ups like Stamer, the highly regarded Ellison or new acqquisition Watson are better values at #2 Sam.

 

 

MLB: London Fletcher. Good player who's getting on in years- Folks put on this final proviso about his age because he is not regarded as one of the best LBs in the NFL even though the tacjkles credited to him over the last 5 years exceed all others in the NFL. 04 is notable because the stats clearly show that he was the short return guy for the Bills after McGee and that he was productive at this indicating in the real world that he tracked and handled balls in flight extremely well. Given that he has consistenly great football knowledge by holding down the D captain role even though TKO is a better performer physically, I have few doubts that Fletch will handle the additional coverage duties which would be required of him in the Tampa 2 as:

 

1. The same age which folks express fear about gives him a lot of experience to diagnose plays as they develop and do good coverage.

2. He has shown constant motor which has allowed him to make tackles from sideline to sideline that will help him do good coverage.

3. He fulfilling short kick return duties for the Bills shows that he teracks the ball well in flight and handles it well when it comes to him.

 

This is weighed against him being a bit shorter than the norm for LBs, but folks have taken this individual point into claims that he is bad at coversge which have become fact-free opinions as there is little to substantiate this claim than the height issue.

 

OLB: Takeo Spikes. Hopefully will fully recover from injury- We all hope so. The one thing to keep in mind though is that 80% of TKO is worth more on the field than 100% of other LBs and as long as he runs little risk of damaging himself more by playing. I a, quite comfortable with him playing himself back into football form.

 

SS: Lawyer Milloy. Gone. Another for whom there seems to be good reason for his cut. His strength was as a hitter and this made him fit the zone blitz well where he often played a run stopping role as DEs like Schobel and Denney did pass coverage. His recurring nicks which he could play through as a younger man were actually limiting his effectiveness as a run stopper anyway. The theory of some that old man TV was a likely cut with Milloy or even a better cut than Milloy did not coincide with an actual read on their games in reality. TV's skillset fits the Cover 2 better than the zone blitz and Milloy's skillsets fit the zone blitz better than the Cover 2. In addition, both players have lost a step or two from their peak, but TV was faster to begin with and had more to lose than Milloy. The cap hits where the savings for a Milloy cut are higher makesthe Milloy cut a good one. He played a great role for us in 2003/04 because if we had not overpaid to get Milloy then Coy Wire likely would start.

 

FS: Troy Vincent. Too old.- Again assesing 2004 as you set out to do I'm not sure where this comes from as it does not line up with what actually happened. Folks complain he was too old last year, but the fact is he tied for the team lead in INTs and then with several other players in tying for the team lead in fumbles recovered.. Yes, we certainly wish the team lead #s were higher, but TV simplty produced more turnovers than other Bills and if you cut him then one needs to replace them and posts simply say cut him.

 

Even if one buys the idea that he cannot handle his role in 2006 despite his team leading turnover production in 05, to complain about his 04 performance simply ignores the fact he was a year younger then and that much better in 04. He may hit the wall suddenly as some older players do and the nicks which elevate to injuries at advanced football age may claim him, but there are few objective signs given:

 

1. The scheme is moving to his coverage strength from his hitter weaknesses.

2. His experience will be even more useful as a centerfielder and he already has lowered his speed need by switching to S from CB.

3. The acquisition of a bunch of talented younger players like Simpson or Yobouty who will lead to him being cut emphasizes the utility of him being a great on field coach for these players who need a year because of hi leaving school early (Yobouty) and being a second day draft pick who can reasonably be only counted upon to contribute this year to ST (Simpson).

 

The reasonable debate here is whether the the Cover 2 extends TVs uti;ity merely one year or two rather than the fantasy he should be cut now.

 

CB: Nate Clements. Future status/level of play uncertain- As 2004 assessment his future status was not an issue. As far as next year, the acquisiton of Yobouty makes his training more of the issue which will allow us to thank him and say goodbye rather than whether he is good enough to sign or not.

 

CB: Terrence McGee. Good, and still here Agree. I think despite NC, he is now the #1 CB.

[Orton's Arm]

While your assessment of the 2004 players appears to be "in theballpark", I think there is an alternative assessment of these individual players which is more charitable and also is "in the ballpark" in terms of possibilities".  . . .

Our DTs in the 2006 Bills Cover 2 will need to be quick penetrators and force the opponent to make plays which our LBs will then clean-up.  There is a good argument that Denny was actually a replacement for the Posey role and was more like a flexible LB than an LDE in our old zone blitz.  As far as DL goes he was more likely to line up inside as a DT than as a traditional pass rushing LDE in the zone blitz package.

Now that was a long post, even by your lofty standards! In my original post, I listed the 2004 starter, and then afterwards listed his status for 2006. So the "too old" comment for Troy Vincent was for the Vincent of 2006, not 2004. Likewise, while Fletcher has played quite well these last few years, age is likely to catch up with him relatively soon.

 

I wish I could share your optimism about Spikes' recovery. In his prime, Bryce Paup was a better player than Spikes. But Paup suffered a devastating injury, and was never the same player again. Then there was Sam Cowart; a guy I'd put into the same general category as Takeo. Same story: a devastating injury caused him to be a shell of his former self.

 

As for Denny, you seem to have him lining up as a DE, a LB, and a DT. The Bills don't need a homeless player; they need good play at LDE--something neither Kelsay nor Denny have provided.

[Mikie2times]

Player talent is not the issue.  The Bills are close enough to "average" NFL talent to win in the right circumstances.  What is so often forgotten in Buffalo is that success BEGINS with coaching in the NFL.  The three main reasons the Bills project to stink this year are as follows:

 

1) Dick Jauron........not gameday sharp or innovative, ultra-conservative, questionable leadership and authority

 

2)Perry Fewell......only hired because he knows the system and nobody else was available. A literal "shot in the dark" hire.

 

3)Steve Fairchild......turned the greatest show on turf into a relative bore,  but at least he shows promise the other two don't.

 

This team will only go as far as the coaching takes them, and the coaching looks very bad.  Very bad coaching + below average talent = horrible football.

720355[/snapback]

We don't have a proven starter at QB or one that has even proven to be above average at this point. AT WR we have a #1 who is being a #1 for the first time, a number #2 who we aren't positve can be a #2, and a whole flock of 4's, 5's, and 6's who have not yet shown they can be conistent 3's.

 

OL has been the number one posted complaint in wall history but the addition of Flower and Reyes is supposed to make us forget how many sacks we've given up the last few years? We did the same thing to the line we did with TD, add value starters hoping they would pan out. After the Bennie Anderson expereince I'll wait and see before I believe it again this year, especially considering the yards per carry averages of Carolina and Minnesota's run game last year.

 

Conclusion- It's all up to Fairchild

 

On defense we have NO run stopping talent at DT. Anderson is not a viable starter but he will start, let's hope he doesn't get injured because we have nobody who can play his position behind him. Oposite him we signed Larry Tripplett, a player who could never help the Colts improve their run defense while he was in the cover 2 for them. McCargo is a rookie so factoring in any major contribution from him is s premature. Oposite Schobel, Kelsey and Denney have yet to show they can give us consitent good play year round. 75% of our DL is below average, and the Cover 2 has been notorious for allowing power run teams gaping alleys in the middle.

 

Conclusion- It's all up to Fewell

[Spiderweb]

yeah - Holcomb was really slick at throwing that 2 yard pass on 3rd and 8.

 

I wonder how long it will take JP to become that polished?

719352[/snapback]

 

Actually, I think you're referring to the infamous 1-2 yard throw to Moulds on 4th and 7 against the Pats. Pure genius, especially considering Mould was doubled.

 

So how long before JP or anyone else can be that polished? Answer - yesterday....

 

Holcomb's Arm aside, Holcomb is a career backup at best who can on occasion actually have a decent game or two. In fact they're good enough to make folks think he isn't half bad and should get a shot as starter. News break - the Browns, that franchise factory of QB greatness, thought so too and found out otherwise (as we did as well).

 

Holcomb is a backup, albeit a decent one, but a backup none the less.

[BADOLBILZ]

We don't have a proven starter at QB or one that has even proven to be above average at this point.  AT WR we have a #1 who is being a #1 for the first time, a number #2 who we aren't positve can be a #2, and a whole flock of 4's, 5's, and 6's who have not yet shown they can be conistent 3's.

 

OL has been the number one posted complaint in wall history but the addition of Flower and Reyes is supposed to make us forget how many sacks we've given up the last few years?  We did the same thing to the line we did with TD, add value starters hoping the would pan out. After the Bennie Anderson expereince I'll wait and see before I believe it again this year, especially considering the yards per carry averages  of Carolina and Minnesota's run game last year.

 

Conclusion- It's all up to Fairchild

 

On defense we have NO run stopping talent at DT. Anderson is not a viable starter but he will start, let's hope he doesn't get injured because we have nobody who can play his position behind him. Oposite him we signed Larry Tripplett, a player who could never help the Colts improve their run defense while he was in the cover 2 for them. McCargo is a rookie so factoring in any major contribution from him is s premature. Oposite Schobel, Kelsey and Denney have yet to show they can give us consitent good play year round. 75% of our DL is below average, and the Cover 2 has been notorious for allowing power run teams gaping alleys in the middle.

 

Conclusion- It's all up to Fewell

720421[/snapback]

 

The Bills offensive line looks like it was built entirely from one expansion draft yet some here are expecting them to hold their own. To me, this season has the feel of Gregg and Donahoe's first season. They're going to stop the run with numbers and try to develop a young QB with a bunch of scrubs on the line. They've got a little more talent this time, but a proven failure at HC as opposed to an unknown commodity.

[PromoTheRobot]

Player talent is not the issue.  The Bills are close enough to "average" NFL talent to win in the right circumstances.  What is so often forgotten in Buffalo is that success BEGINS with coaching in the NFL.  The three main reasons the Bills project to stink this year are as follows:

 

1) Dick Jauron........not gameday sharp or innovative, ultra-conservative, questionable leadership and authority

 

2)Perry Fewell......only hired because he knows the system and nobody else was available. A literal "shot in the dark" hire.

 

3)Steve Fairchild......turned the greatest show on turf into a relative bore,  but at least he shows promise the other two don't.

 

This team will only go as far as the coaching takes them, and the coaching looks very bad.  Very bad coaching + below average talent = horrible football.

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You're absolutely right. Any coach the Bills hire is only here because they can't get hired anywhere else. Same with the players. They all stink. My god, why do we waste our lives following this team???

 

PTR

[Mikie2times]

The Bills offensive line looks like it was built entirely from one expansion draft yet some here are expecting them to hold their own.  To me, this season has the feel of Gregg and Donahoe's first season.  They're going to stop the run with numbers and try to develop a young QB with a bunch of scrubs on the line.  They've got a little more talent this time, but a proven failure at HC as opposed to an unknown commodity.

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After researching Fairchild I think he will be a good fit for our players. The Rams ran with him calling plays, and the success of the QB's in St Louis is intriguing. I'm not worried about him, but I’m VERY worried about our defensive intentions.

 

What this looks like to me is another example of a coach forcing his system on a team regardless of the talent at hand. Recently we haven't applied pressure well from the DL, so we relied on the blitz. As a result we had blown coverage, and gave up long runs. We needed to tone it down but the approach we decided on is the complete opposite of what we have been playing. Now we will play a vanilla look that asks your DL to apply pressure, something we haven’t been able to do for a long time. We will also ask the DL to stop the run with speed, and penetration. As a result our LB's will be left more exposed, which is not exactly Fletcher's strength.

 

Our corners will shift from more man to zone responsibilities. This will benefit MaGee but it neutralizes Clements man skills, which until last season were regarded as top notch. We were also forced to draft a SS and DT with our first picks because we didn't have a SS capable of playing this look, and the FA DT market was thin with the type of DT's this system fits.

 

Eventually we will have the right players for this defense but we clearly don’t now, and we overextended ourselves in the draft to get them. Jauron never had great talent to work with in his former jobs so I give him a pass on that, but I do question his ability to bring in enough players for his system in the time a HC usually gets.

[DE Bills Fan]

My point in the various threads over the last 4-5 days has been that there is an overly negative view of the upcoming season amongst the posters to this website. While it is understandable that last year's team performance was way below most fan expectations for the 2005 Bills - and that includes the various "experts" at ESPN, PFW, SI and the like - I have yet to hear sound, reasoned evaluations of the 2006 squad to warrant predictions of results worse than last year. Certainly, it is possible the Bills could go 3-13 or 4-12. But, one cannot assume major injuries, strings of bad luck/bad calls etc. The evaluation has to be based on who is on the squad now, who is coaching, and who they will be playing. Period.

 

If you are predicting - with great confidence - that the Bills will win only 4 or 5 games, then that makes the Bills one of the worst teams in the NFL on paper. It means 26-28 teams are better AND that we will be playing enough of those "better" teams to back the low expectations.  The Bills play the Jets twice, Houston, Tennessee, Detroit and Green Bay with 4 of these 6 games at home. The Bills also play Miami twice (when will Culpepper play and how well?) , San Diego at home in December (rookie QB), Baltimore (will McNair be healthy so close to Christmas?), and Minnesota at home.

Keep smoking whatever you are. At least it makes you feel happy, Sadly, to say 8-10 wins is "reasonable" is not logical. When you start without a solid QB, you'll already in deep trouble. Couple that with a new coaching staff which is highly suspect, too many rookies and loads of ?'s on both sides of the ball including the health of your best player and I would say it would be "reasonable" to expect 4 wins.

Keep smoking!!!!!

 

You also have to have great confidence in the ineptiude of the Bills draft and offseason maneuvers (Tripplet-Reyes-Fowler-Royal-Price-Davis-Whitner-McCargo) plus you must be assuming TKO will not return to form. Also, you must feel the coaching is the same or worse than last year.

 

Finally, you also have to be assuming that both JP or Nall will not win the QB job and, if they do, they will suck and that we can expect no improved play from the QB position.

 

My take is that to predict under 7 wins is pessimistic  (not "being realistic") . To predict more than 10 wins is optimistic. Thus, predicting 8-10 is reasonable given the skill level and the schedule.

 

Starting from there,  you can understand why I am in strong disagreement with the "experts" from the beforementioned rag magazines and talk shows. The Bills do not even have to win 1 of their first 2 games to win 8 this year. I do see game 2 as winnable at this juncture but I'll have a better sense of this in mid August as I watch the QB battle, the line play on both sides of the ball, and the play of TKO. On the other side of it, I will also be watching to see how Culpepper is playing. IF he is not playing or playing poorly, then this makes the Fish vulnerable to the extreme since I see a very poor offensive line on that team (Fat Bennie as a starter???).

 

I'll see many of you in person at Hammer;'s on the 24th. Take  a Buffalo wing and remind me of my prediction(s)  this day.

 

Go Bills!

 

RichNJoisy

CNJBBB

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[Orton's Arm]

What this looks like to me is another example of a coach forcing his system on a team regardless of the talent at hand. . . . Eventually we will have the right players for this defense but we clearly don’t now, and we overextended ourselves in the draft to get them.

You and Badolbilz have had some outstanding posts in this thread, so good job to you both. You point out that the defensive system was chosen irrespective of the talent at hand, which I agree with. However, there wasn't much talent on hand to begin with. The players who didn't fit the new system tended to be older guys, and therefore irrelevant to an expansion-like team such as the Bills. I personally couldn't care less whether the defensive system is or isn't a good fit for Lawyer Milloy, Sam Adams, or Troy Vincent; and I'm only mildly interested in London Fletcher.

 

The larger issue is the draft value the Bills gave up by taking Whitner and perhaps McCargo too early. Had the Bills been a SS and a DT away from the Super Bowl, they would have been justified in being so ridiculously specific about which two positions to draft first. The only other reasonable justification is if this proves to be a weak draft class in general, with Whitner and McCargo being rare bright spots. Given that this is unlikely, the Bills made a serious error in the 2006 draft. Let's just hope it doesn't happen again next year.