falling into the trap

[CAT]

here I go again! The more I read the more optimistic I become. I do think we are headed in the right direction,however, the facts suggest 6 to 8 wins at best. New coaches,unproven QB, weak linesetc. Besides, I want to compete for the Bowl not slide into the middle of the pack. Lets stick to a 2 year plan. Play the best of the young guys including QB, keep or trade Nate ,and be super aggressive next offseason especially on D. Be haapy with a hard playing high energy team. WE are at least 6 really good players away assuming we keep our young guys and we have a QB on the roster.

[JAMIEBUF12]

if we get 6 wins i hope 2 r against the fish,2 against the jets and the last two victories against the patsies...

[Mikie2times]

here I go again!  The more I read the more optimistic I become.  I do think we are headed in the right direction,however, the facts suggest 6 to 8 wins at best.  New coaches,unproven QB, weak linesetc.  Besides, I want to compete for the Bowl not slide into the middle of the pack.  Lets stick to a 2 year plan.  Play the best of the young guys including QB, keep or trade Nate ,and be super aggressive next offseason especially on D.  Be haapy with a hard playing high energy team.  WE are at least 6 really good players away  assuming we keep our young guys and we have a QB on the roster.

718928[/snapback]

At first people posted we would suck by the dozen, so naturally the few that think we can win 9 or more got fed up and started speaking louder. I don't see the majority here thinking we can win 9 games, and the posts of people that do always include "IF". If you’re looking at what's before us now, and throw out "IF" this is a VERY bad team. IF things like QB, WR, OL, DL, TKO, S, and DJ work out we could be much better. To get to 9 wins we would need the majority of these things to work out.

[BEAST MODE BABY!]

I'm not a sucker this year. I am assuming we're going to suck like ass, so I'll be pleasantly surprised and possibly euphoric when we go 2-14. It will be like we have Joe Ferguson back as QB.

[Pyrite Gal]

As a life long Cub fan since I was born in Chocago, part of the fun of following a team for me is getting sucked in to believe in my team even though such hopes are obviously irrational.

 

Its been interesting to move here to Buffalo as my lovely spouse's family is here, and to get sucked into rooting for Buffalo major league teams. I'm a Bills fan rather than a Bear fan and a Sabres fan rather than a Blackhawk fan, but I still retain my devotion to the Cubs and the Bulls as there is no major league alternative here.

 

I must admist that I was able to salve the wounds to my sports heart when the Cubs went up 3 games to 1 over the Marlins and we had Mark Prior or Kerry Wood coming up in the rotation to win1 game and send us to the World Series.

 

I actually do not blame the hated Steve bartman for interfering with a catch of a foul ball to give the Marlins another chance.

 

I blame myself as a fellow childhood Chicagoan and Cub dan was off in Argentia where his lovely wife is from. He asked me if I could tape the World Series for his review upon his return. I said no problem, but not counting mt chixkens before they hatched, I told him I would not buy the blamk tapes until after the Cubs were in for sure.

 

Of course, I happened to be at Wegman'd the night they went up 3 games to 1 and video tapes were on sale and if I waited until they clinched, I ,might miss out on a deal.

 

Rediculously, and in a moment of great hubris I saved a couple of nickels and pre-maturely bought the tapes.

 

Needless to say in one of the most bizzare ways possible we lost it all,

 

Yep, it was all my fault, but actually. i was able to rest comforably after dealing silently with initial schock because I must admit it gave me a sense that all was right with this crazy world.

 

So, for me its completely illogical to root for a playoff appearance by my Bills this year (or even a winning record)), Yet who cares. Sports for me is about rooting illogically and I am happy to go down with my Bills if that happens. It simply means that all will be right with the world.

[Bflojohn]

Holy Cow!! IF you can't go into a season optimistic, then why be a fan? Part of this experience is to believe that anything IS possible. Worst to first, Red Sox win the World Series, White Sox win the World Series, hey ANYTHING is possible in sports or it wouldn't be fun! The media slams our team and it gets old, I know, but we will have the greatest party the world has EVER known when our BELOVED Bills win it all......I'm definately flying back to Buffalo for that, how about you???

[BUFFALOTONE]

I wouldnt be booking any airline tickets for that event, but if it does happen I will join you.

[richNjoisy]

My point in the various threads over the last 4-5 days has been that there is an overly negative view of the upcoming season amongst the posters to this website. While it is understandable that last year's team performance was way below most fan expectations for the 2005 Bills - and that includes the various "experts" at ESPN, PFW, SI and the like - I have yet to hear sound, reasoned evaluations of the 2006 squad to warrant predictions of results worse than last year. Certainly, it is possible the Bills could go 3-13 or 4-12. But, one cannot assume major injuries, strings of bad luck/bad calls etc. The evaluation has to be based on who is on the squad now, who is coaching, and who they will be playing. Period.

 

If you are predicting - with great confidence - that the Bills will win only 4 or 5 games, then that makes the Bills one of the worst teams in the NFL on paper. It means 26-28 teams are better AND that we will be playing enough of those "better" teams to back the low expectations. The Bills play the Jets twice, Houston, Tennessee, Detroit and Green Bay with 4 of these 6 games at home. The Bills also play Miami twice (when will Culpepper play and how well?) , San Diego at home in December (rookie QB), Baltimore (will McNair be healthy so close to Christmas?), and Minnesota at home.

 

You also have to have great confidence in the ineptiude of the Bills draft and offseason maneuvers (Tripplet-Reyes-Fowler-Royal-Price-Davis-Whitner-McCargo) plus you must be assuming TKO will not return to form. Also, you must feel the coaching is the same or worse than last year.

 

Finally, you also have to be assuming that both JP or Nall will not win the QB job and, if they do, they will suck and that we can expect no improved play from the QB position.

 

My take is that to predict under 7 wins is pessimistic (not "being realistic") . To predict more than 10 wins is optimistic. Thus, predicting 8-10 is reasonable given the skill level and the schedule.

 

Starting from there, you can understand why I am in strong disagreement with the "experts" from the beforementioned rag magazines and talk shows. The Bills do not even have to win 1 of their first 2 games to win 8 this year. I do see game 2 as winnable at this juncture but I'll have a better sense of this in mid August as I watch the QB battle, the line play on both sides of the ball, and the play of TKO. On the other side of it, I will also be watching to see how Culpepper is playing. IF he is not playing or playing poorly, then this makes the Fish vulnerable to the extreme since I see a very poor offensive line on that team (Fat Bennie as a starter???).

 

I'll see many of you in person at Hammer;'s on the 24th. Take a Buffalo wing and remind me of my prediction(s) this day.

 

Go Bills!

 

RichNJoisy

CNJBBB

[mary owen]

I wouldnt be booking any airline tickets for that event, but if it does happen I will join you.

719013[/snapback]

 

I'm hoping they win the Super Bowl in 2008 (2007 Season). I can hop right on the 101 here, head north, and be at Cardinals Stadium within minutes.

[Orton's Arm]

My point in the various threads over the last 4-5 days has been that there is an overly negative view of the upcoming season amongst the posters to this website.

 

As I've predicted a 6-10 season, I guess I'm one of those who you see as having an overly negative view. I based this view on the fact the Bills will need time to adjust to a new system; rookies like McCargo and Whitner will need time to adjust to the NFL, and the fact that veteran players such as Eric Moulds and Lawyer Milloy have been lost. If a QB other than Holcomb is selected as the starter, the Bills will have to endure his growing pains. There are new faces on the offensive line, and it will take time for players like Reyes and Fowler to learn to work together. Remember how the offensive line played poorly in the first five to six games of 2004, only to gel for the second half of the year? Expect to go through that again, except without necessarily ending up with as good a line now as we had then.

[John from Riverside]

I am predicting a 9-7 season.....

 

If certain things work out like I think they MIGHT....then we might go 10-6 and a wildcard......

[PromoTheRobot]

Of course, unfounded pessimism is just fine and dandy. Knock yourselves out!

 

PTR

[richNjoisy]

As I've predicted a 6-10 season, I guess I'm one of those who you see as having an overly negative view.  I based this view on the fact the Bills will need time to adjust to a new system; rookies like McCargo and Whitner will need time to adjust to the NFL, and the fact that veteran players such as Eric Moulds and Lawyer Milloy have been lost.  If a QB other than Holcomb is selected as the starter, the Bills will have to endure his growing pains.  There are new faces on the offensive line, and it will take time for players like Reyes and Fowler to learn to work together.  Remember how the offensive line played poorly in the first five to six games of 2004, only to gel for the second half of the year?  Expect to go through that again, except without necessarily ending up with as good a line now as we had then.

719100[/snapback]

 

 

Good post H_A

 

I had a longer response for ya but netscape ate it

 

So, here goes again (briefer):

 

My understanding is that Milloy had lost a step or 2 last yr - Whitner may VERY WELL be an improvement. Yes, I do expect a learning curve but he will have lots of quality help around him (McGee, Clements, Vincent)

 

McCargo is a rookie but the D-Line last yr was TERRIBLE. Do you really think the new line with players signed/drafted that exactly fit the scheme can actually play worse? You also failed to consider the return of TKO. He was out for weeks 4-16. Thatsalotta games. The Bills D was #2 in 2004 and something like #29 in 2005. Is expecting them to be #15 hugely optimistic? They won 5 games with the 2005 defense.

 

As to the offensive line, last yr Bennie and Teague simply sucked and Mike Williams was another big tub of lazy goo. Gel/smell - the 2006 O-Line will be better maybe markedly better. Reyes and Fowler are steps up.

 

Finally - Moulds was not playing well last year except for a few games after he got his wish - the benching of JP. before the trouble started with Eric I was voicing my concerns about his lackluster play ESPECIALLY in the Tampa game. Two plays stood out to me at the time (and I was flummuxed by what I THOUGHT I saw) - a dump pass that he failed tostretch out for and a bomb which, although overthrown, was within tipping distance or possibly even catchable but he simply STOPPED running and the INT was made. I AM concerned about the Price signing. I hope he has gas left in the tank. But, with Evans, Reed, Price, AIken, Parrish, Davis plus the reutrn of #3 pick Everett, a thinned down McGahee and the new blocking TE Royals, I see an offense that is better than last year's.

 

 

THAT plus the favorable schedule should = 8-10 wins. I optimistically expect 10.

 

-RnJ

[eball]

As I've predicted a 6-10 season, I guess I'm one of those who you see as having an overly negative view.  I based this view on the fact the Bills will need time to adjust to a new system; rookies like McCargo and Whitner will need time to adjust to the NFL, and the fact that veteran players such as Eric Moulds and Lawyer Milloy have been lost.  If a QB other than Holcomb is selected as the starter, the Bills will have to endure his growing pains.  There are new faces on the offensive line, and it will take time for players like Reyes and Fowler to learn to work together.  Remember how the offensive line played poorly in the first five to six games of 2004, only to gel for the second half of the year?  Expect to go through that again, except without necessarily ending up with as good a line now as we had then.

719100[/snapback]

I like Holcomb -- I really do -- as a backup and 1-2 game fill-in due to injury. I fear that if he "wins" the QB competition, the Bills are in deep doo-doo, because that means Losman hasn't improved and Nall doesn't have it either. Holcomb is not a QB of the future, and the Bills will not likely be a "legitimate" SB contender for at least a year or two -- IF Darv Jaurlevy's plan comes together.

[Orton's Arm]

My understanding is that Milloy had lost a step or 2 last yr - Whitner may VERY WELL be an improvement. Yes, I do expect a learning curve but he will have lots of quality help around him (McGee, Clements, Vincent)

I agree with your optimism up to a point. In the long run, the Bills are clearly better off without aging veterans such as Sam Adams, Eric Moulds, and Lawyer Milloy. I just expect that it will take this team at least the first eight games to really adjust to all the changes I mentioned, and I expect to see better play in the second half of the season than the first half.

 

The Milloy/Whitner situation is a good example. A Whitner that knows what he's doing is probably a much better player than an aging Lawyer Milloy. But right now, he's a rookie being thrown into the fire; so I assume his mistakes will initally cancel out the upgrade in athletic ability. Then there's McCargo. I remember TD talking about how there'd been ten defensive linemen drafted before McGahee, or maybe he was describing all the DL from the first overall pick to Kelsay. Don't remember. But the point is this: of those ten defensive linemen taken early in the draft, only one made a significant contribution to his team as a rookie. Expecting McCargo to be that one in ten may be asking a little too much.

 

In the long run the Bills are better off without Eric Moulds. But right now, we have an unproven #1 WR, and no sure thing at #2 WR either. In time this situation will probably sort itself out. But it may take Lee Evans time to learn the new offense while also learning how to be the #1 guy.

[Orton's Arm]

I like Holcomb -- I really do -- as a backup and 1-2 game fill-in due to injury.  I fear that if he "wins" the QB competition, the Bills are in deep doo-doo, because that means Losman hasn't improved and Nall doesn't have it either.  Holcomb is not a QB of the future, and the Bills will not likely be a "legitimate" SB contender for at least a year or two -- IF Darv Jaurlevy's plan comes together.

I agree the Bills would be better off if a younger quarterback such as Nall wins the QB competition. But even supposing Nall wins, he shouldn't be expected to be as polished as Holcomb was last year.

[drnykterstein]

if we get 6 wins  i hope 2 r against the fish,2 against the jets and the last two victories against the patsies...

718946[/snapback]

lol and then make it to the playoffs as a 6-10 team since they all lots the rest of their non-division games

[Captain Hindsight]

I always think we have upside. The bills do have alot of talent but may be a year or two away from even being considered a playoff contender. i forsee a 5 6 7 win season. I think with marv and DJ we should be able to compete and at least give a lot of the so called "Good" teams ie pitt (Big Been is the most overratted player in the nfl) a run for their money. Expect a tough team to beat but few wins next year

[obie_wan]

I agree the Bills would be better off if a younger quarterback such as Nall wins the QB competition.  But even supposing Nall wins, he shouldn't be expected to be as polished as Holcomb was last year.

719298[/snapback]

 

yeah - Holcomb was really slick at throwing that 2 yard pass on 3rd and 8.

 

I wonder how long it will take JP to become that polished?

[cåblelady]

GO BILLS !!!!!!!!!!!

 

Ahhh......that felt good!