Why do some believe so much in TN, GB, DET etc.

[Pyrite Gal]

Some folks are predicting that the Bills will go 3-13, 1-15 (and even 0-16 from some) or some other disastrous record.

 

They have every right as NFL consumers to do this. In addition, one can still be a good Bills fans and take into reality and expect the team to loss or even loss a lot because rational observation tells you this, but you are still a fan and hope against hope that a miracle will occur and they beat a team you think they will lose to.

 

However, it is testimony that a person is a bit odd if they for some reason follow a team and actually spend their time hoping the team will lose. Its one thing to have irrational hope that your team will win, but it is a bit psychotic for someone to irrationally hope the team they claim to love will lose.

 

One of the neat things to me about the NFL though is that on any given Sunday one team can beat another team. It is from these Lotto like situations as shown a couple of years back when a lowly Fins team actually beat an SB winning Pats team that the any given Sunday dictum was a reality.

 

I think anybody can look at the Bills after 5 years of not making the playoffs, the front office purge last off-season and a draft by the Bills this year that did not follow the norm (to say the least) and see that this team is not going to make the SB and almost certainly not even the playoffs this year.

 

However, what strikes me as irrational would be for anyone to predict that this team will finish 3-13) or as bad as replicating this year's dismal 5-11 record) without some assessent of the opponents. I'm not arguing that the Bills will not be bad. I am merely asking why some are so certain that many of our opponents will not be as bad or even worse in their meltdowns.

 

Is there something that these folks who have predicted DOOM know about Matt Millen and Detroit that for some reason this idiot who picked an even bigger bust that Mike Williams in that draft (he cut #3 Harrington this year as we cut #4 MW) is gonna do great things so Detroit is certain to beat us when we play them. The good news is that the Bills were at least smart enough to can their failed GM while Millen gets to continue to lay waste in Detroit.

 

As I see it, there are three of our 16 games which I am pretty certain we will lose at this point such that I have no rational objection to someone predicting a loss. These games are:

 

Sun. Sept. 10 at New England 1:00pm

 

I do not see us besting this recent SB winner on the road (though interesting we came close in a night game last year).

 

Sun. Oct. 8 at Chicago 1:00pm

 

I do not see us beating a team that finished 11-5 last year (even though their offense sucked their D is likely too good)

 

Sun. Nov. 12 at Indianapolis 1:00pm

 

I do not see us beating this team which clinched its division so fast I think the rust and the trauma of Dungy's son suicide did them in.

 

 

Though I expect we will likely loss the next clump I judge these teams a definite cut way below the teams above. I expect we probably will lose but even a loss will be competitive. Depending on injuries, how things go with momentum and other phases of the moon we can win these:

 

 

Sun. Sept. 17 at Miami 1:00pm

 

We will be on the road so they have to be favored, but I suspect the Fish will have some early adjustment issues getting used to and blocking for the mobile Culpepper after their previous QB disasters. The Fush can always be squished so though I think they are favored this is not impossible even for a bad team.

 

Sun. Dec. 31 at Baltimore 1:00pm

 

Its a long way till the end of the season and the issues which will determine this game have yet to occur, but given we are on the road and Ray Lewis and the gang I log this one in the likely (though not definite) loss column.

 

 

These next few are games where we have significant things working against us (like being on the road, but anyone who logs these as definite losses really needs to state positive things about the opponent rather than simply the negatoves we all know about the Bills for the prediction to be rational at all.

 

 

 

Sun. Oct. 1 MINNESOTA 1:00pm

 

MN is a beatable team and I am curious why folks think so highly of them they have us definitely losing to them at home. The Bills being bad is not good enough here for anyone to be so dead lock certain it will be a loss. My particular sense s that the Bills will have a lot on the line in this game as they come into it either 1-2 and needing a win badly or 2-1 and playing at home with the momentum of having beaten two division opponent in a row. Either way, this team should be ready to reinvent their rep or save their season,

 

Sun. Nov. 26 JACKSONVILLE 1:00pm

 

This will be an interesting game as Jax is clearly a better team than us, but we will be at home against a team which is beatable. Thuis one worries me but is far from a dead lock certain loss.

 

Sun. Dec. 3 SAN DIEGO 1:00pm

 

We will know by the time this game occurs whether the cut Brees for Rivers move was a good one or a disaster. If Rivers is struggling SD will likely travel cross country as a bad team and even if we are bad we will be able to beat them (particularly if this Dec game is in Bills weather rather than SD weather. If Rivers performs and it is a team destined for the playoffs then we probably lose.

 

 

Sun. Oct. 22 NEW ENGLAND 1:00pm

 

 

This is also a game where we will know a lot more once the real games start. NE appears in many way to be a team headed for a precipitous slide after their SB glory and if this happens we will be favored at home even with a loss of the first game. Even if they are competive, like last years game in BE this will be a competive game we can win,

 

The following games I see as likely or possible wins even with a bad team. These more than any others, i judge anyone predicting a loss would need to demonstrate why they have such faith in bad opponents even if they are certain the Bills will be bad in 06.

 

Sun. Sept. 24 NY JETS 1:00pm

 

Perhaps the most likely win on our roster as almost all expect NYJ to be bad and we will be at home.

 

Sun. Oct. 15 at Detroit 1:00pm

 

Detroit is a goshawful team and has been for years. We are on the road and their ability to eat home cookin gives them a leg up. However, the Jarin revenge incentive should also be there and this will be a game even a bad team can steal unless folks have some reason to believe the Detroit story will be dffierent this year.

 

I think even a bad team may steal one from them in their house.

 

Sun. Nov. 5 GREEN BAY 1:00pm

 

Favre waiting so long to see if GB was so bad he might as well retire states the question which surrounds this team which will come into our house. To some extent that Favre weighed things so long indicates how close a call this was about whether this team is OK or disgusting. I suspect that as old age creeps up on Favre that the answer may well have beed decided by whether BB is good enough to make it worth millions for him to play for a bad team and not whether the team is good or bad.

 

 

 

Sun. Nov. 19 at Houston 1:00pm

 

 

This was the worst team in the NFL last year and I see nothing from drafting Super Mario and the other changes they made which is certan to change this.

 

 

I think a bad team can beat them on the road.

 

Sun. Dec. 10 at NY Jets 1:00pm

 

Again I think this is going to be a tough season for MYJ and even a bad team can beat them on the road.

 

 

Sun. Dec. 17 MIAMI 1:00pm CBS

 

The Fish are notorious for their December swoons and we should be able to beat them in our house.

 

Sun. Dec. 24 TENNESSEE 1:00pm

 

I think this is also a bad team and again they will be in our house.

 

Looking at our opponents, I can easily see a .500 season even for a bad team.

 

What is it which folks who predict a losing season, 3-13 or worse know about our opponents that they are such believers in them? Merely coming to the obvious conlusion that this Bills team is going to be bad is simply not good enough for someone to reach a rational conclusion we are DOOMED.

 

For someone to assert we are doomed without any rational support for this argument adds up to that prediction saying more about the attitude and life of the person making it than it does about anything else.

 

Again, I think one can rationally believe that the Bills will be a loser this year. replicate their 5-11 record or even rationally believe that our opponents are gonna be so good we will lose and I would defend them to the end that they are good fans who judged this team to be worse than its opponents.

 

However, if someone predicts doom for no rational reason of their own its a bit odd.

[Oneonta Buffalo Fan]

Maybe it's because they don't have a QB situation like the Bills do. Ever since we lost Flutie, it seems, like the Bills have been undecided at QB. The team and us, the fans, can't seem to decide on a QB that we can trust to lead this team.

[MDH]

Many it's because they don't have a QB situation like the Bills do.  Ever since we lost Flutie, it seems, like the Bills have been undecided at QB.  The team and us, the fans, can't seem to decide on a QB that we can trust to lead this team.

717550[/snapback]

 

Are you implying that when Flutie was here the Bills weren't undecided at QB?

 

I think you probably meant since Kelly left.

[Dibs]

I fully agree with the premise of your post.

...if someone predicts doom for no rational reason of their own its a bit odd.

 

I have some differing thoughts on the match-ups though....

 

Sun. Oct. 8 at Chicago 1:00pm

 

I think we will lose this game but I don't put it into the certain loss category.

The Bears were a winner last year due to a super Defense & a ball control Offense.

Their starter for most games at QB last year was Orton....a huge surprise who (obviously) didn't lose them too many games.

They will however be starting Grossman at QB this year(again). He is their JP. He has only played in 8 games & like JP was picked #22 in the draft. Like JP, he will be expected to develop into a star which means 'growing pains' or failure. Either way I expect the Bears to regress on Offense(if that is possible) while Grossman learns. They won't reign in the Offense like they did with Orton.

 

The Chicago Defense was #2 in YPG

Their opponents offenses in YPG were

DET(x2) #27 WW

GB(x2) #18 WW

MIN(x2) #25 WL

CIN #6 L

CLE #26 L

BALT #24 W

PIT #15 L

TB #23 W

CAR(x2) #22 WL

NO #20 W

ATL #12 W

WASH #11 L (Ramsay started for Skins in this match)

SF #32 W

I feel their Defense was over-rated last year due to the poor offenses it generally faced.

 

Sun. Dec. 3 SAN DIEGO 1:00pm

 

Again I look at the QB. Rivers has virtually no game experience. The Chargers are a poor team with a few superstars. I see no reason why they will not regress into sub-mediocrity.

 

Sun. Oct. 1 MINNESOTA 1:00pm

 

This is a bad team. Ranked low on Defense & lower on Offense. They have an old QB nobody wanted, no RB to speak of & lost their up & comming WR(luckily they have an OG though).

Their 9 wins came against

NO 3-13

GB(x2) 4-12

DET(x2) 5-11

NYG 11-5(what happened here?)

CLE 6-10

STL 6-10

CHI 11-5(pointless week 17 match)

 

If we are improved this year I'm looking positively at the SD & MIN matches.

[Pyrite Gal]

I fully agree with the premise of your post. 

I have some differing thoughts on the match-ups though....

 

Sun. Oct. 8 at Chicago 1:00pm

 

I think we will lose this game but I don't put it into the certain loss category.

The Bears were a winner last year due to a super Defense & a ball control Offense.

Their starter for most games at QB last year was Orton....a huge surprise who (obviously) didn't lose them too many games.

They will however be starting Grossman at QB this year(again).  He is their JP.  He has only played in 8 games & like JP was picked #22 in the draft.  Like JP, he will be expected to develop into a star which means 'growing pains' or failure.  Either way I expect the Bears to regress on Offense(if that is possible) while Grossman learns.  They won't reign in the Offense like they did with Orton.

 

The Chicago Defense was #2 in YPG

Their opponents offenses in YPG were

DET(x2)  #27  WW

GB(x2)  #18  WW

MIN(x2)  #25  WL

CIN        #6    L

CLE        #26  L

BALT      #24  W

PIT        #15  L

TB          #23  W

CAR(x2) #22  WL

NO        #20  W

ATL        #12  W

WASH    #11  L  (Ramsay started for Skins in this match)

SF          #32  W

I feel their Defense was over-rated last year due to the poor offenses it generally faced.

 

Sun. Dec. 3 SAN DIEGO 1:00pm

 

Again I look at the QB.  Rivers has virtually no game experience.  The Chargers are a poor team with a few superstars.  I see no reason why they will not regress into sub-mediocrity.

 

Sun. Oct. 1 MINNESOTA 1:00pm

 

This is a bad team.  Ranked low on Defense & lower on Offense.  They have an old QB nobody wanted, no RB to speak of & lost their up & comming WR(luckily they have an OG though).

Their 9 wins came against

NO        3-13

GB(x2)  4-12

DET(x2) 5-11

NYG      11-5(what happened here?)

CLE      6-10

STL      6-10

CHI      11-5(pointless week 17 match)

 

If we are improved this year I'm looking positively at the SD & MIN matches.

717566[/snapback]

 

Interesting assessment and I am going to have give them some thought. The one comment I would make though is that Rex Grossman may be more comparable to RJ rather than JP if you are looking for a comparable Bills QB.

 

Extremely talented player, but after losing games to a finger injury in his roolie year, losing the season to a torm ACL his sophomore season and missing most of last season before coming back in the post-season he got knocked out with an ankle break.

 

Like RJ, injury prone may end up being the major feature of Grossman's football

legacy.

 

It doea go show however, that folks predictions of doom without giving some serious thought and assessment of the opponents is simply irrational.

[Oneonta Buffalo Fan]

Are you implying that when Flutie was here the Bills weren't undecided at QB? 

 

I think you probably meant since Kelly left.

717556[/snapback]

 

That might be it. But Flutie played pretty well for us.

[Scraps]

Some folks are predicting that the Bills will go 3-13, 1-15 (and even 0-16 from some) or some other disastrous record.

 

They have every right as NFL consumers to do this.  In addition, one can still be a good Bills fans and take into reality and expect the team to loss or even loss a lot because rational observation tells you this, but you are still a fan and hope against hope that a miracle will occur and they beat a team you think they will lose to.

 

However, it is testimony that a person is a bit odd if they for some reason follow a team and actually spend their time hoping the team will lose.  Its one thing to have irrational hope that your team will win, but it is a bit psychotic for someone to irrationally hope the team they claim to love will lose.

 

 

717549[/snapback]

 

Why is it that fans who don't believe the Bills have improved in the off season and may have actually regressed are "hoping the team will lose"? Maybe we believe that the team that wnt 5-11 last year and may actually be weaker should be worse than 5-11 this year.

 

I am not impressed with anything the Bills have done this off season. They hired a GM who has scant history to suggest he would be a good GM but was a good ol boy. They hired a retread coach who seems to be a slave to a the cover 2 system, never mind that this system plays to the weaknesses and avoids the strengths of the defensive personel the Bills have. In free agency, they may have improved their offensive line (its hard to imagine the line being any worse) but they didn't really sign anyone of note. Meanwhile, they seriously weakened their receiving corps and weakened the defensive line. I don't think a draft is going to turn a team around in one year but I thought Whitner was a bit of a reach in the draft and if a trade was offered to move down a little, that should have been done.

 

Its not that I am hoping the Bills will lose but last year, they stunk. I just don't see what this team has done to improve itself markedly.

[Nanker]

Well, for those needing to stroke their bruised egos and nurture your self-worth by basking in the pronouncements of others about your favorite sports team, here's somebody who you can hang your hat on... Gill Brandt ranks The Bills 25th.

 

That's right folks. Put that chin high in the air and don't be so forelorn. Give up that hang-dog look, have a PREMIUM beer today, 'cause somebody out there who has a column in the media actually thinks Your Buffalo Bills are BETTER THAN Oakland, Tennessee, Cleveland, SanFrancisco, Detroit, Houston AND the Jests.

 

Here's his quote about The Bills. I know many of you haven't mastered clicking the linky thingy yet.

 

"25. Buffalo

Another new coach and new offensive coordinator. The defense went from No. 2 in the league in 2004 to No. 29 in 2005. Buffalo's first five draft picks were defensive players, all possible starters. The return of LB Takeo Spikes, who missed last season due to injury, will help the defense. The question on offense is who will play quarterback. Lee Evans is a very good wide receiver and RB Willis McGahee has gained 1,000-plus yards in each of the past two seasons. Buffalo will play road games at Chicago, Indianapolis and Baltimore."

[ganesh]

Maybe it's because they don't have a QB situation like the Bills do.  Ever since we lost Flutie, it seems, like the Bills have been undecided at QB.  The team and us, the fans, can't seem to decide on a QB that we can trust to lead this team.

717550[/snapback]

Not the 3 years when Bledsoe was at the helm going into training camp.

There was a clear # 1.

[Pyrite Gal]

Why is it that fans who don't believe the Bills have improved in the off season and may have actually regressed are "hoping the team will lose"?  Maybe we believe that the team that wnt 5-11 last year and may actually be weaker should be worse than 5-11 this year.

 

I am not impressed with anything the Bills have done this off season.  They hired a GM who has scant history to suggest he would be a good GM but was a good ol boy.  They hired a retread coach who seems to be a slave to a the cover 2 system, never mind that this system plays to the weaknesses and avoids the strengths of the defensive personel the Bills have.  In free agency, they may have improved their offensive line (its hard to imagine the line being any worse) but they didn't really sign anyone of note.  Meanwhile, they seriously weakened their receiving corps and weakened the defensive line.  I don't think a draft is going to turn a team around in one year but I thought Whitner was a bit of a reach in the draft and if a trade was offered to move down a little, that should have been done.

 

Its not that I am hoping the Bills will lose but last year, they stunk.  I just don't see what this team has done to improve itself markedly.

717626[/snapback]

 

Thanks for the feedback, but your post raises two issues in assessing the Bills ganes:

 

1. It still does no answer the basic thrust of the thread. Where are our opponents in their development such that anyone can confidently say that even a bad team will not at least be competitive with our real world opponents and even beat them.

 

Most of the teams we face did not make the playoffs last year either and appear to e bad teams (Houston for example), appear to be going in the wrong direction for this season (D'Brick and Mangold will be good in a season or two but this season looks bad for them as Trey Teague may be there best OL player this year), or have a long history of failure ( I think that '99 was the last time Detroit saw the playoffs and the coaching debacles of Morningwheg, Maricucci and now the unknown Marinelli is what they bring to the table).

 

The reality is simply that even a bad Bills team can be competitive with a lot of its opponents.

 

The really scary thing is that not only do the Jets look a couple of years away from credibility, but the Saban led Fins see uncertain prospects at best after the Wicky Williams debacle and their own QB controversies and NE looks poised for the eventual meltdown and reloading which generally comes to all winning teams.

 

It simply will not take much of a surprisingly good performance and a few fortunate bounces by this oddly shaped ball to see this team compete in the division unless someone out there has some rational incisive commentary about how our opponents are generally or dead lock certain to improve.

 

2. Many of the question marks you raise seem to be incorrect or at least incomplete readings on the face of them:

 

A. I agree that Marv's scant history as a GM is a concern, however, the team still has Modrak on the payroll who was seen as a reasonable GM cndidate for elsewhere and apparently decided not to go as the Bills situation allows him to do the detailed GM type work he dd well with in Philly but avoid the overall hassle of being judged all the time. If marv had any skills which were the hallmark of his success with the Bill, it was in managing a team of men who all could do their own jobs and work together. I think a mere indictment of Marv's inexperience as GM without a recognition that the team of Modrak Overdorf, and even experience OL position coach JMac are stilll in place ignores a lot of reality. I think the problem the Bills have had in producing stinky results in the reign of error under TD was not that the infrastructure was bad, but that TD himself seemed to be committed to him being blamed by and getting run out of town by an HC he hired like Cowher would never happen again.

 

The gain of Marv is uncertain, but the loss of TD looks like addition by subtraction. How do you account for this issue most fully?

 

B. I'm not sure where this Cover 2 slave issue comes from. Definitely this is the D system he likes, but all signs point to the Bills not running the traditional Cover 2, but actually an advance on this scheme with something like the Tampa 2 which DC Farrell ran in Jax. The base is the same but the implementation promises to be quite different if only because we are setting up to have players which look more like the FL teams in terms of DT size than the Chicago team of Jauron which used DTs of the Big Ted size.

 

One can complain he is a slave to a system (but I think almost all former NFL HCs are salves to some system and the key is that its employment got Jauron NFL Coach of the Year in his Chicago gig so being a slave to what worked does not sound to me like a set-up for DOOM.

 

C. I do not see how us moving away from a zone blitz style which was 29th in the league is running away from a strength. In fact, I think the move to Cover 2 clearly moves toward the DBs strengths in that the getting older Milloy who is a zone blitz guy was cut, TV stays but coveragte is far more his sterngth than the rushing D required in the zone blitz. Further the DBs are reinforced with Whitmer, Yopbouty and Simpson so clearly we are moving toward strength in this area.

 

The LB situation depends much on TKO recovering, however the extension of Crowell gives us 3 recent LB starters in addition to TKO so that it actually gets crowded when/if TKO recovers (former starter Posey likely to the bench or gone). These 4 are reinforced with extensions to good ST players and reasonable back-ups Haggan and Stamer and now Watson has been added to this crew. These 7 LBs are at least a solid base and may be formidable if TKO comes back.

 

The DL is where I have my largest questions, but here is where we have our most repsected FA signing and we traded up to the 1st to get the player we wanted so though it is going to take someone who has forgotten more than most of us remembers about a D to make this work, one cannot say that the team did not devote resources to this area of need.

 

D. As far as the receiving corps, I think the key will be Evans stepping up to the #1 level in his third year after 2 good stating seasons. I think he cn do it (he actually seemed to surpass Moulds for the #1 WR slot on the team in the Miami game he caught 3 TDs in the 1st and Moulds threw a hissy fit and melted down (even NFLPA Prez TV did bit cine to Moulds' defense when he was suspended).

 

While they are not deadlock certain to fill out the corps with quality at every position, i do like the chances beyond the must suceed ! Evans-

 

#2- PP failed at being a #1 for AT but he is being asked to be a #2 for us. He did this job before in the real world so he may well be able to do it again. The laternative is Parrish who actually had a not bad season once he took the field last year and showed some of the moves which may make him a #2 eventually if not this year. Some talk about wildcard Davis stepping up but I doubt this.

 

#3- I think Parrish can actually fulfill this consolation prize and has enough speed and moves that when/if PP beats him out, these 2 plus Evans bring a freakish amount of speed to 3 WR sets. If Parrish does in fact step up to #2 then PP will easily be able to fulfill #3 goals and still brings the speed rep to force DCs to zone up in 3 WR sets. There is some talk of Reed resuming the same production he achioeved in the real world his rookie season as a potent #3 for the Bills. i doubt this, but he did it before so one cannot reasonably say it is impossible.

 

#4- Though I doubt he will be #3 material, Reed should be sufficient to be our #4. In fact, this former RB had a reputtion for good RAC when he was drafted and if we succedd in installation of a short pass/RAC St. L O he may prosper. He will compete against Aiken whom I see as more of an ST contributor who merely is adequate at best at #4. There are several other candidates such as Davis who though I doubt he is #2 quality should offer some ineresting competition for #4.

 

#5/6- We are already up to 6 WRs with above names and add to them that the final slot will be a competion between the losers of the compettion for #4 and the proven vet Fast Freddy (he contributed a TD on ST year before last which to me makes a #6 WR if we decide to keep one proven at this lowly slot), In addition, UDFA Nance isa very tall and well regarded by some WR. Add former PS guy Wilson to the mix and I suspect the tale of the Bills at WR is not that we do not have enough talent to make it work, but that we are likely going to have to cut a couple of former NFL vets to get down to 5 or 6.

 

Its no certainty whatsoever this team will be good (or even compete well), but I think that there us even a lower chance that the result from this crew on the face of it will be DOOM. When one ads into it that most of our opponents also have big ? or simply suck, i look for this team to be quite competitive even if they are a bad team.

[krazykat]

Some folks are predicting that the Bills will go 3-13, 1-15 (and even 0-16 from some) or some other disastrous record.

 

They have every right as NFL consumers to do this.  In addition, one can still be a good Bills fans and take into reality and expect the team to loss or even loss a lot because rational observation tells you this, but you are still a fan and hope against hope that a miracle will occur and they beat a team you think they will lose to.

 

However, it is testimony that a person is a bit odd if they for some reason follow a team and actually spend their time hoping the team will lose. 

 

...

 

What is it which folks who predict a losing season, 3-13 or worse know about our opponents that they are such believers in them?  Merely coming to the obvious conlusion that this Bills team is going to be bad is simply not good enough for someone to reach a rational conclusion we are DOOMED.

 

For someone to assert we are doomed without any rational support for this argument adds up to that prediction saying more about the attitude and life of the person making it than it does about anything else.

 

Again, I think one can rationally believe that the Bills will be a loser this year. replicate their 5-11 record or even rationally believe that our opponents are gonna be so good we will lose and I would defend them to the end that they are good fans who judged this team to be worse than its opponents.

 

However, if someone predicts doom for no rational reason of their own its a bit odd.

717549[/snapback]

 

An interesting post. Better thought out than the usual tripe of some.

 

Allow me to respond to some of your points.

 

"One of the neat things to me about the NFL though is that on any given Sunday one team can beat another team."

 

That is a very cliched statement. While yes, any team can beat another team, this statement is thrown about as if the odds on any given game are 50/50 when that's far from the case.

 

Let's take Pittsburgh and San Fran as an example. If the two teams played each other each week for 16 weeks, the way that you say that is that each team would win about half the games. But what's the reality? The reality is that San Fran might win one of 16 games if they caught the Steelers off guard. Otherwise they really and practically don't have a chance.

 

As to your other assessments, you seem to ask why many don't think the Bills will win many games, but at the same time you don't really say why they will win more than what those people say.

 

We suck. That's the default here. We didn't just roll of a season whereby we lost in the first round of the playoffs. We didn't even play competitively in most games. In 7 of 11 games we lost by 8 or more points. We lost 3 games by 21 or more.

 

In the games we won we beat a bunch of teams playing poorly generally speaking. We also lost thoroughly to teams like the Jets, Saints, and Raiders.

 

To assume that we will automatically improve is based on what?

 

In your game analysis you say things like "Detroit is a goshawful team and has been for years. We are on the road and their ability to eat home cookin gives them a leg up. However, the Jarin revenge incentive should also be there and this will be a game even a bad team can steal unless folks have some reason to believe the Detroit story will be dffierent this year."

 

Jauron revenge factor? OK, whatever.

 

Meanwhile, have you actually looked at how Detroit played last year?

 

Yeah, they were 5-11 last year which isn't good. But we play them on the road. They were 3-5 at home but three of those losses were to playoff teams Carolina, Cincinnati, and Chicago. They lost to Carolina by a point and to Chicago by only 6. After that, they lost to Atlanta and Minnesota, neither of which had a losing record.

 

As to Houston, we beat Houston last year but it wasn't pretty. No one walked away from that game saying "what a great win." We struggled to score and move the ball. That was at home. We play them in Houston now. They've made significant strides in improving their lines whereas we have not. All we've done is swap out one batch of linemen that didn't turn out well for another that we hope will but who also aren't good. The Texans now have Moulds, and as long as you're talking about revenge...

 

You say that you don't see Houston changing, but then you talk about how we will improve. Why? Houston's made better upgrades than we have big time.

 

The Jets are bad but also moving in the right direction.

 

I'm not sure that some fans actually realize how bad we really were last season. A handful of junior DBs aren't going to change that this year. Whitner's not even 21 yet. He can't even go out for a beer. He'll be a boy among men. He was our top pick.

 

I mean everyone wants to be positive, and that's good, but we have been blindly rushing into the season screaming Super Bowl for years now. I think many fans just don't have much left and want to see some changes in this organization and Levy and Jauron aren't the kind of changes that they were hoping would come about.

 

We'll see. But right now we can't win on the road. Our average road loss was by 14 points last season. So start there. Figure 1-7 on the road again. Then look at the home schedule.

 

We're a bad team that's poorly run.

[krazykat]

1. It still does no answer the basic thrust of the thread.  Where are our opponents in their development such that anyone can confidently say that even a bad team will not at least be competitive with our real world opponents and even beat them.

 

Most of the teams we face did not make the playoffs last year either and appear to e bad teams (Houston for example),  appear to be going in the wrong direction for this season (D'Brick and Mangold will be good in a season or two but this season looks bad for them as Trey Teague may be there best OL player this year), or have a long history of failure ( I think that '99 was the last time Detroit saw the playoffs and the coaching debacles of Morningwheg, Maricucci and now the unknown Marinelli is what they bring to the table).

 

The reality is simply that even a bad Bills team can be competitive with a lot of its opponents.

 

The reality is that you assume that we are headed in the right direction. What you say about those other teams is easily said about the Bills.

 

Houston and the Jets are both teams correcting their biggest problems. We aren't. Our biggest problems were the lines and we've done nothing other than bring in more questionable players for both.

 

Your view doesn't see the reality of your own team.

[Coach Tuesday]

We're a bad team that's poorly run.

717709[/snapback]

 

Good post Krazykat. You strongly encapsulate the way I feel. This team was absolutely horrid last year - as you point out, they weren't even competitive in many of their games. The coaching change to Jauron is a big question mark due to his inconsistent and somewhat unimpressive resume. Although I actually grade the Bills a bit higher than most in terms of their draft and free agency pickups, I still think their roster is at least 2 years away from actually being competitive with New England and Miami. This team has shown NO ability or character to go on the road and win against a halfway decent (or at least disciplined or motivated) team, which I think Baltimore, Detroit, and Houston certainly were or will be this year.

 

I love the Bills and devote a significant amount of time to watching, analyzing and reading about them. I want nothing more than for the Bills to climb out of the sess pool of embarassment they have been wading in for the last decade. But I am nearly positive that is not gonna happen this year. This team, with its glaring holes on offense (QB and o-line), and defense (straight up the gut) is not going to win more than 2-4 games. I'm sorry.

[apuszczalowski]

This team has shown NO ability or character to go on the road and win against a halfway decent (or at least disciplined or motivated) team, which I think Baltimore, Detroit, and Houston certainly were or will be this year.

717724[/snapback]

Those other teams have also shown no ability to win at home either and last time I checked they all had the same record 0-0

 

This is a very different team thne what we have seen the past couple years and with new players, schemes and coaches, going off of previous seasons to evaluate how this team will be this year is not possible because alot has changed That is why Buffalo has as good of a chance of going 16-0 as the do of going 0-16

 

And I also ask the questions of if the Bills are so bad, what have the Jets, Texans, Lions, Packers, Raiders, Titans, 49ers or any other team that didn't make the playoffs do in the offseason that makes them so much better then Buffalo that they are guaranteed a win against them?????

[Acantha]

"25. Buffalo

Another new coach and new offensive coordinator. The defense went from No. 2 in the league in 2004 to No. 29 in 2005. Buffalo's first five draft picks were defensive players, all possible starters. The return of LB Takeo Spikes, who missed last season due to injury, will help the defense. The question on offense is who will play quarterback. Lee Evans is a very good wide receiver and RB Willis McGahee has gained 1,000-plus yards in each of the past two seasons. Buffalo will play road games at Chicago, Indianapolis and Baltimore."

717630[/snapback]

Without going though all the teams, I think I would rank Buffalo 27 at this point. I think Tenn and Cleveland will be better teams.

[Coach Tuesday]

And I also ask the questions of if the Bills are so bad, what have the Jets, Texans, Lions, Packers, Raiders, Titans, 49ers or any other team that didn't make the playoffs do in the offseason that makes them so much better then Buffalo that they are guaranteed a win against them?????

717734[/snapback]

 

The Raiders beat the Bills last year, so did the Jets. They don't play the Titans or 49ers this year, do they?

 

The Lions have a talented roster and finally added a coach who will likely motivate them.

 

The Jets added the two best offensive linemen in the draft. The Texans added a coach who is a solid X's and O's guy, a Peppers-like defensive end and a strong number two WR to take the pressure off of the most underrated WR in the game (Andre Johnson).

 

You're right, we might beat the Packers. Then again, Favre is pretty good at embarassing young secondaries...

[stuckincincy]

The Lions have a talented roster...

717739[/snapback]

 

I think so, too.

[krazykat]

Good post Krazykat.  You strongly encapsulate the way I feel.  This team was absolutely horrid last year - as you point out, they weren't even competitive in many of their games.  The coaching change to Jauron is a big question mark due to his inconsistent and somewhat unimpressive resume.  Although I actually grade the Bills a bit higher than most in terms of their draft and free agency pickups, I still think their roster is at least 2 years away from actually being competitive with New England and Miami.  This team has shown NO ability or character to go on the road and win against a halfway decent (or at least disciplined or motivated) team, which I think Baltimore, Detroit, and Houston certainly were or will be this year.

 

I love the Bills and devote a significant amount of time to watching, analyzing and reading about them.  I want nothing more than for the Bills to climb out of the sess pool of embarassment they have been wading in for the last decade.  But I am nearly positive that is not gonna happen this year.  This team, with its glaring holes on offense (QB and o-line), and defense (straight up the gut) is not going to win more than 2-4 games.  I'm sorry.

717724[/snapback]

No need to apologize. No one wants the team to be poor. They're just acknowledging reality.

 

I will say this, that we may be two seasons away from being competitive with NE and Miami, but that's only if we are managed properly. I would question that right now.

 

For every young prospect we have coming on, and yet to be proven, we have at least one that won't be here or if he will won't be what he used to be. Spikes, Fletcher, Clements, McGahee, even Losman, Evans, could and will likely all be out of here for one reason or another. Further losing and mismanagement isn't going to get them to want to stay here either.

 

It's gonna be a heavy duty balancing act. And if Levy proves to be clueless and Jauron posts another two losing seasons, they're not gonna have much support from fans and players just won't want to stay here.

 

Meanwhile we've saddled ourselves with the burdens of big contracts for players like Price, Royal, Tripplett, and Fowler. Tell me, before this offseason, would anyone have said these guys were worth what we gave them?

[Pyrite Gal]

An interesting post.  Better thought out than the usual tripe of some. 

 

Allow me to respond to some of your points. 

 

"One of the neat things to me about the NFL though is that on any given Sunday one team can beat another team."

 

That is a very cliched statement.  While yes, any team can beat another team, this statement is thrown about as if the odds on any given game are 50/50 when that's far from the case. 

 

Let's take Pittsburgh and San Fran as an example.  If the two teams played each other each week for 16 weeks, the way that you say that is that each team would win about half the games.  But what's the reality?  The reality is that San Fran might win one of 16  games if they caught the Steelers off guard.  Otherwise they really and practically don't have a chance. 

 

As to your other assessments, you seem to ask why many don't think the Bills will win many games, but at the same time you don't really say why they will win more than what those people say. 

 

We suck.  That's the default here.  We didn't just roll of a season whereby we lost in the first round of the playoffs.  We didn't even play competitively in most games.  In 7 of 11 games we lost by 8 or more points.  We lost 3 games by 21 or more. 

 

In the games we won we beat a bunch of teams playing poorly generally speaking.  We also lost thoroughly to teams like the Jets, Saints, and Raiders. 

 

To assume that we will automatically improve is based on what? 

 

In your game analysis you say things like "Detroit is a goshawful team and has been for years. We are on the road and their ability to eat home cookin gives them a leg up. However, the Jarin revenge incentive should also be there and this will be a game even a bad team can steal unless folks have some reason to believe the Detroit story will be dffierent this year."

 

Jauron revenge factor?  OK, whatever. 

 

Meanwhile, have you actually looked at how Detroit played last year? 

 

Yeah, they were 5-11 last year which isn't good.  But we play them on the road.  They were 3-5 at home but three of those losses were to playoff teams Carolina, Cincinnati, and Chicago.  They lost to Carolina by a point and to Chicago by only 6.  After that, they lost to Atlanta and Minnesota, neither of which had a losing record. 

 

As to Houston, we beat Houston last year but it wasn't pretty.  No one walked away from that game saying "what a great win."  We struggled to score and move the ball.  That was at home.  We play them in Houston now.  They've made significant strides in improving their lines whereas we have not.  All we've done is swap out one batch of linemen that didn't turn out well for another that we hope will but who also aren't good.  The Texans now have Moulds, and as long as you're talking about revenge...

 

You say that you don't see Houston changing, but then you talk about how we will improve.  Why?  Houston's made better upgrades than we have big time. 

 

The Jets are bad but also moving in the right direction. 

 

I'm not sure that some fans actually realize how bad we really were last season.  A handful of junior DBs aren't going to change that this year.  Whitner's not even 21 yet.  He can't even go out for a beer.  He'll be a boy among men.  He was our top pick. 

 

I mean everyone wants to be positive, and that's good, but we have been blindly rushing into the season screaming Super Bowl for years now.  I think many fans just don't have much left and want to see some changes in this organization and Levy and Jauron aren't the kind of changes that they were hoping would come about. 

 

We'll see.  But right now we can't win on the road.  Our average road loss was by 14 points last season.  So start there.  Figure 1-7 on the road again.  Then look at the home schedule. 

 

We're a bad team that's poorly run.

717709[/snapback]

 

Actually thank you too for a thoughtful post.

 

I agree with your general analysis and you are correct in saying that the general cliche about any given weekend and that generally this is a bad team. it would be foolish to predict total victory on our part based on either the any given Sunday cliche or on an assessment of our team.

 

That is not at all what I am trying to do.

 

What I am trying to do is point out:

 

1. The any given Sunday maxim makes it also foolish to purport this team is going to go winless, or 1-15 and probably it is foolish to even predict 3-13. In this league where worse to first is possible like never before, one side effect is that it is really difficult for a team to only win 3 (Houston bottomed out at 4 last year) and you have to go back to SF the year before that to find a team bottoming out at 2 as SF did that.

 

2. A look at some of the real bad opponents we are facing also makes it a huge jump to conclude that even if we agree we are bad we are going to lose to these teams. The NFL still attempts to balance the shchedule so that worse teams do not have as tough a schedule as good teams. The schedule is weighted toward intradivisional bias and set years in advance now so this is not perfect.

 

However, this schedule does have us playing some of the worst of the worst (we cannot play ourselves, but oh well) and also gives us the benefit of playing some of the tougher non-playoff teams in our house (Jax and MN) while playing a chunk of the bad teams on the road (DET, Hou). If we are going to beat average teams and steal games on the road this is the schedule built for that.

 

When one adds into this, that we join 3 of our division rivals in being questionable teams and even the best of the division NE shows signs of implosion, it will actually be quite surprising if the lionshare of the Bills games are not competivie this year.

 

I am not arguing that we are going to the SB (or even the playoffs nor would I even argue this team is definitely going to have a winning record).

 

I am arguing, that a simple look at where the NFL is right now in terms of producing match-ups and where with good fortune we happen to be with the match-ups we have that for anyone to argue this team is going winless, with one win or even 3-13 is pretty irrational even if one concludes this is a bad team.

 

What this post is looking for are some rational assessments of the opponents and I am getting a little of that.

 

So far, I feel worse about our prospects in Detroit (they should be favored unless Matt Millwn has made yet another bad coaching choice in Marinelli which is certainly not impossible at all given his lack of a resume and the way he bollickeds the hiring of both Morningwheg and and even a good HC like Mariucci). Also the Moulds factor in Houston was something I had not thought about and your bringing this up gives me pause in thinking about how bad they are and whether they might catch us.

 

I do though feel a bit better about facing Chicago after reading a bit of analysis of this opponent. I still would put this one as a probable loss for us, but I'm backing off the certainty I have of this that I would lump them in with Indy and NE on the road as definite losses.

 

I also feel a bit better about facing SD at home. This likely Bills loss in my initial equation could even turn into a likely Bills win if Rivers has the same young Q@B struggles as many NFL QBs in their first year.

 

I pretty much agree with folks that we will not be a good team. What I am simply pointing out is that in this league that does not necessarily mean that you are going to have a 5-11 record in this league and that actually it is quite unlikely you will not win at all or only get 1 or 2 wins.

 

Pete Rozelle is probably a very happy guy up there, because given the way his structure has played out and the vagaries of how the Fins, NYJ and NE are doing, I actually think that though making the playoffs and us going winless are incredibly unlikely, one can actually see a an odd series of events, breaks and events occuring so that we make the playoffs as greater small probability than the small probabiliy we go winless or only have a victory or two.

[Acantha]

The Raiders beat the Bills last year, so did the Jets.  They don't play the Titans or 49ers this year, do they?

 

The Lions have a talented roster and finally added a coach who will likely motivate them. 

 

The Jets added the two best offensive linemen in the draft.  The Texans added a coach who is a solid X's and O's guy, a Peppers-like defensive end and a strong number two WR to take the pressure off of the most underrated WR in the game (Andre Johnson).

 

You're right, we might beat the Packers.  Then again, Favre is pretty good at embarassing young secondaries...

717739[/snapback]

 

Yes, but all of those things are just as opinionated as saying the Bills have upgraded their coaching, dropped some cancers, and upgraded with journeymen players around the team.

 

There are some who over rate the Bills talent simply because they know the names. And there are some who say they suck for the same reasons.

 

But trying to look at it from some sort of middle groudn, I don't think anyone can reasonably say that the Bills are any worse than the 7 or so other teams being listed. They all have very big weaknesses and haven't proven anything yet.