We may be a shocker

[tennesseeboy]

One good things about the low expectations coming from all corners as to the Bills these days (from 25th to 30th in almost all categories) may be that we are grossly underestimated. Now I don't think we are playoff caliber, but I do think ML and DJ have a plan and seem committed to carrying it out based on the draft and the types of players they have signed in free agency. I suspect with one major break, the development of a quality quarterback ( I know...huge expectation) we might be the surprise team of the season. It would be nice to have the last laugh at ESPN, the Sirius guys, and SI. Anything over .500 would put them to real shame!

[RuntheDamnBall]

One good things about the low expectations coming from all corners as to the Bills these days (from 25th to 30th in almost all categories) may be that we are grossly underestimated.  Now I don't think we are playoff caliber, but I do think ML and DJ have a plan and seem committed to carrying it out based on the draft and the types of players they have signed in free agency.  I suspect with one major break, the development of a quality quarterback ( I know...huge expectation) we might be the surprise team of the season.  It would be nice to have the last laugh at ESPN, the Sirius guys, and SI.  Anything over .500 would put them to real shame!

716651[/snapback]

That's the way I feel. This team is primed to surprise. I don't think we're going to make the playoffs, and a lot hinges on our QB and the success of the line. All the same, the expectations are next to nothing on the outside for this team. To my mind, it's exactly the "us-against-the-world" situation you want your team in -- something that will build a team and cameraderie.

[SuperBills12]

I nominate this as the best post of the offseason...great points

[dave mcbride]

That's the way I feel.  This team is primed to surprise.  I don't think we're going to make the playoffs, and a lot hinges on our QB and the success of the line.  All the same, the expectations are next to nothing on the outside for this team.  To my mind, it's exactly the "us-against-the-world" situation you want your team in -- something that will build a team and cameraderie.

716656[/snapback]

i hope you're right. if, however, the bills finish up at 4-12, i won't be able to say that i was surprised. they have the makings of a pretty mediocre to poor team, with very little in the way of difference makers. the three bills who can claim to have legitimate star potential -- clements, mcgahee, and spikes -- are coming off of subpar at best seasons. the rest of the starting lineup is either mediocre to poor, with a few good-but-not-great players sprinkled in (schoebel, maybe fletcher, mcgee).

[scribo]

Success in my mind for this season would be positive development of one QB, the young o-linemen and the three keey rookie DBs. Get that done, and the win-loss record of '06 really doesn't matter. because we'll be primed to fill the gaps with some vets and really make a run in '07.

[Mickey]

One good things about the low expectations coming from all corners as to the Bills these days (from 25th to 30th in almost all categories) may be that we are grossly underestimated.  Now I don't think we are playoff caliber, but I do think ML and DJ have a plan and seem committed to carrying it out based on the draft and the types of players they have signed in free agency.  I suspect with one major break, the development of a quality quarterback ( I know...huge expectation) we might be the surprise team of the season.  It would be nice to have the last laugh at ESPN, the Sirius guys, and SI.  Anything over .500 would put them to real shame!

716651[/snapback]

This team really is a mystery to me. New coaches, an entirely new defense, offensive line changes, questions at QB, etc. I don't know what to think. I wouldn't be surprised if we won 8 or 9 games or if we finished 1-15. Could depend on the schedule as muchs as whether JP can play.

 

The OL line upgrade and a more intersting offensive scheme could change the whole face of this team. Who knows, could we end up being more of an offensive minded football team rather than defense first as we have been?

 

The nice thing about these unknowns is that it makes it more exciting to see what they are going to do in camp and in the early part of the year.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Every year since the end of the Wade Phillips era, I've heard this same song and dance. And yet, more often than not, the experts that are so often ridiculed around here are right about the Bills. One question: if you guys know so much more about football, how is it that you're not sitting behind an anchor desk somewhere and prognosticating?

[Pyrite Gal]

This team really is a mystery to me.  New coaches, an entirely new defense, offensive line changes, questions at QB, etc.  I don't know what to think.  I wouldn't be surprised if we won 8 or 9 games or if we finished 1-15.  Could depend on the schedule as muchs as whether JP can play. 

 

The OL line upgrade and a more intersting offensive scheme could change the whole face of this team.  Who knows, could we end up being more of an offensive minded football team rather than defense first as we have been?

 

The nice thing about these unknowns is that it makes it more exciting to see what they are going to do in camp and in the early part of the year.

716696[/snapback]

 

The other good thing is that this team will be a mystery to opponents as well for a good half the season.

 

I think a key for us is going to be Fairchild and to some extent Farrell finding away to practice installation of a RAC based StL style O and for Jauron to train folks in a Cover 2 (assumably more like a Tampa 2 with Farrell as DC) without telegraphing to much of our tendencies at a particular down and distance throughout pre-season and as long as they can.

 

One problem with the NFL is that it has become over-mechanized with coaches really running the show and there being little ability for individual players to freelance much in terms of plays. The days when an HC was strong enough to turn his offense over to a player like Kelly running the K-Gun are done.

 

However, there is a certain reliance on teams being predictable as to opponents almost knowing exactly what they are likely to do in a particular situation which has come with this mechanization.

 

In the early part of the season, one may see Bills opponents looking like Bledsoe the first time the Bills faced NE. Belicheck had his D mill around after the snap and not show what D formation they were going into. This non-approach befuddled Bledsoe (never a bright light when it came to improvising though he could run a set play with his ball handling skills to handle a pitch back from WM and rocket arm so he could fire the ball to Evans quite well) and they killed us.

 

A key may well be Jauron/Farrell fooling opponents initially to they track our tendecies and then them switching up our tendencies to fool the next set of opponents after we show our hand a bit.

 

If they suceed in this (and also somehow suceed in teaching the O to out guys in closed practices) we can steal a few games.

[krazykat]

One good things about the low expectations coming from all corners as to the Bills these days (from 25th to 30th in almost all categories) may be that we are grossly underestimated.  Now I don't think we are playoff caliber, but I do think ML and DJ have a plan and seem committed to carrying it out based on the draft and the types of players they have signed in free agency.  I suspect with one major break, the development of a quality quarterback ( I know...huge expectation) we might be the surprise team of the season.  It would be nice to have the last laugh at ESPN, the Sirius guys, and SI.  Anything over .500 would put them to real shame!

716651[/snapback]

It may be nice, but it's not going to happen.

 

Explain a few things;

 

"but I do think ML and DJ have a plan and seem committed to carrying it out based on the draft and the types of players they have signed in free agency."

 

What "types" of players would those be? What are their backgrounds, accolades, etc.?

 

What is that plan, specifically?

 

Describe the "types" of players drafted? In other words, what kind of experience do they have? How many years did they start in college? How old are they? What are the precedents for players' performances upon entering the NFL under similar circumstances?

 

Your post and sentiment looks good on the surface, but simply "catching the league by surprise because our preseason rankings are low" isn't a smart thing to bankroll a wager on.

[krazykat]

The other good thing is that this team will be a mystery to opponents as well for a good half the season.

Let's just hope that doesn't continue to be a big mystery to our own coaching staff just as its been for a long time now.

[tennesseeboy]

It may be nice, but it's not going to happen. 

 

Explain a few things; 

 

"but I do think ML and DJ have a plan and seem committed to carrying it out based on the draft and the types of players they have signed in free agency."

 

What "types" of players would those be?  What are their backgrounds, accolades, etc.? 

 

What is that plan, specifically? 

 

Describe the "types" of players drafted?  In other words, what kind of experience do they have?  How many years did they start in college?  How old are they?  What are the precedents for players' performances upon entering the NFL under similar circumstances? 

 

Your post and sentiment looks good on the surface, but simply "catching the league by surprise because our preseason rankings are low" isn't a smart thing to bankroll a wager on.

716727[/snapback]

Types of players are pretty obvious. DEFENSIVE PLAYERS. Light and fast. Cover 2. I wasn't a fan of the idea, but they drafted consistent with a cover 2 strategy and left the offense hanging. No halfway measures here. If you remember I pushed hard for Ngata and think the cover 2 requires personnel that we didn't have. The Defensive tackle choices are constent (emphasis on speed over size) and the Safety position is critical. I am impressed that they have a plan and are moving consistent with it. Its the opposite of trading for Drew Bledsoe and not drafting a NUMBER of high quality offensive linemen and a tight end like Jason Witten (or better yet...Jason Witten). Things will be different on the defensive side of the ball. Better? I don't know, but I wouldn't sell them out yet.

 

Offensive side doesn't look very good this year. Bad receivers, bad linemen, questionable quarterbacks and the questionable McGahee (without a high quality backup.) However, there may be some quality players here who can make a difference.

 

I feel bad that we are "aspiring" to a .500 season, but I for one think the defense might actually be good this year and that the offense might not be as bad as the critics are making out. Couple that with continued success on special teams and who knows what might happen?

[ajzepp]

I don't think we'll make the playoffs either, but I DO think we're going to fight for a spot. The difference will be that instead of crapping the bed against another team's JV squad to miss the playoffs, we'll give a top team all they want for 60mins and just barely miss. I think JP is going to take this team by the balls, our defense will play stout, we'll have solid-yet-unspectacular play from our O-line, Willis will have a huge year, and we'll get solid production out of both Andre Davis and Peerless Price.

 

GO BILLS!!!!

[AJ1]

716727[/snapback]

 

On the other hand, how about coming up with any value added to last year's team by the HC, the OC, and the DC. I'd like to hear what it was.

[beerme1]

I've made statements before as to how we have improved and was laughed at.

Mocked even!

 

 

We will win 8 games or better this year based on a number of things. I'm not sure which to rank first or second but the two biggest reasons are,

 

1. We finally have legitimate coaching again. Our staff is excellent. Much better than I originally anticipated and that means belated/begrudging kudos to Marv.

 

2. JP will emerge early in camp as the man. He will be the starter and will be a much more succesful qb this year albeit with some warts or growing pains.

 

3. JP is going to break a specific Safety's arm in camp to prove that he is in fact, the man this year! And that will resonate with the players through the year and he will gain acceptance and respect through this move.

[TigerJ]

I agree that expectations are low from just about everybody, from national media types to Bills fans alike. It's just about impossible to escape the low expectations because there is so little positive from last season on which we can base optimism. There is just not enough to build realistic expectations for success in the coming season. That said, there is potential for upside surprise in a lot of areas on the team, from QB to RB, WR OL and DL etc.. In order to translate into overall success the Bills are going to need those upside surprises to happen in most of those areas.

 

I will continue to be cautious as we approach this coming season, but I'm very open to some pleasant surprises happening.

[Pyrite Gal]

Bad receivers, bad linemen, questionable quarterbacks and the questionable

716931[/snapback]

 

Maybe I'm simply being a homer fan about this (I certainly am a homer but more like Simpson actually) but I think that a majority of these 3 questions you raise about the O will be answered positively as the season goea on.

 

Bad receivers- I no that this is the conventional wisdom (see the ESPN rankings) but I feel pretty good about the personnel we have and expect a good competition for the several open spots and think we will have to cut at least one pro quality player at WR.

 

I think that the key to this working out will be whether the Bills can sucessfully install a St. L type O which uses the long pass mostly as a change up for the short pass with larger yardage gains from RAC after the catch.

 

Fairchild will have to design an O which utilizes the separation his WRs can achieve and whatever oicks he can get away with the make the attack potent. As far as the personnel I have more questions about the extent to which WM can be as effective a pass catcher as he is a runner as he plays the Marshall Faulk role for us (concerns some have about his personality and drop-off in the second half of last season seem overblown to me as he has dropped a few pounds while maintaining his stength working out at the U this off-season based on the reports I have seen. WM is not a guy you want to sleep with but its fine with me if this fastest Bill in history to rush for 2K in yards is our RB).

 

Specifically, I assess the WR quakity as:

 

Evans- He had surpassed Moulds as the go-to WR last year based on production (it was the Miami game where Moulds was the decoy and Evans scored 3 TDs where this was obvious and it was Moulds meltdown which seemingly was not well-received by his teammates who offered little public support for him after he was suspended that I think led to Moulds leaving.

 

Evans needs to become the #1 in practice in addition to name. He has the speed to command double teams if he forces the DB to give him room and begins to break off these patterns for easy receptions and RAC. There is no Bill to replace him so he simply muct step up and he appears ready to do this. He has shown no sign of droppsies and actually shown some good hands at times. If he can develop the ability and athleticism to make the circus catch the nlook out Pro Bowl.

 

He need not achieve this level this year, but needs to play like a solid #1 who demands dts).

 

Price- Faiked nmiserably at being a #1 WR for AT and needs to resume the production which made him a stud #2 in 2002. Vick being a runner rather than a passer and some eyesight issues may explain a big part of his failure. I assume his eyes are OK vased on the read of the Bills docs and the bonus we paid him. The good news for us is that he need not replicate his outstanding 2002 performance to be good enough for the job he has to do. Even better, he still has the rep for speed that he can even prove to only be a #3 quality WR and still be good enough for us to do what we need to do if Parrish steps up his game and becomes the credible #2.

 

Parrish- I hink it is more likely that Price will play at #2 levels but if he does not #3 levels will be OK if Parrish steps up his game. He showed good shiftiness and a bit of speed to make it possible (though unlikely) this will be a break out year for him. However, I am quite comfortable he can be god enough to be our #3 and if Price comes back these three will nr formidable and present many challlenges for the opposing DC.

 

Reed- A big ? as a WR after a solid rookie season which saw hin slated to be our #2. The bad case of droppsies he developed in his second year and an injury he developed in his third year nipped the thought of him being a legit #2 in th bud.

 

However, he did well in ST duty and showed enough to the Bills braintrust that he will get a shot at returning to the good #3 WR levels he showed his rookie year. The RAC ability he has shown only brief glimpses of as a firmer RB may make him a potent weapon in a St. L type O. However, if he can be a good #4 with ST chops then that makes his good enough to make this scheme work

 

Aiken- when we get down to the #5 WR the player will need to contribute more as an STeamer than a position player as the need for 5 WR sets will be few and far between, He also must be able to step up to #4 levels in case of injury. He has shown little big play prodcution or route ability to make him a credible choice for any of the top 3 spots. Yet, as a back-up #4 he should be adequate,

 

Smith, Davis, Nance abd Wilson will all get their shot at the utility #6 slot.. Nance and Smith both have some mutant ability that make them interesting as back-up back-ups but ij we gop wimply the above top 5 and one PS guy I will not be displeased at all. Davis may even surpruse and be a credible choice as high as #3 WR.

 

The bottom line is we have one optiion for #1 which who must w[rk pot. Wehave two options for #2 and one should work out.

 

We have the loser of the battle for #2 at #3 plus Reed gets a shot.

 

Reed might even return to #3 form but if he does not who cares he is at #4 where he will be challenged by Aiken wh os ia reasonable #5,

 

Aiken will be challenged by the rest for #5 but the bottom line is we will likely need to cut 1 or 2 NFL level players. I likr our situation.

 

2 Bad linmen- I think in making a real presentation on the line one needs to acknowledge that the probable starters we have this year are better than the starters we had last year(if anyone wants to sing MW and Anderson's praises and argue against this then feel free).

 

The issue is that we will need to identify some credible back-ups. This is still an issue, but a much less hard one than tring to find a starter. We need to improve but doing this is doable.

 

3. Questionable QBs- I agree, but the key here is that even though all three are unlikely to be good enough in themselves, the chances one of these three will be adequate is more likely than unlikely given that when you add their chances together there is a majority chance one of them will workout.

 

I think there is a significant possibility that we will find one adequate starter from amongst these three.

 

Its no sure thing we will be good, However, it is certainly easily conceivable that they might be.

[Bill from NYC]

I don't think we'll make the playoffs either, but I DO think we're going to fight for a spot. The difference will be that instead of crapping the bed against another team's JV squad to miss the playoffs, we'll give a top team all they want for 60mins and just barely miss.

 

GO BILLS!!!!

716944[/snapback]

 

Sounds like a blast!

 

I want to make the point that the hard core posters here are part of what my dear friend nirvjam so accurately labeled as the "fringe element" of Bills Fans.

Like it or not; sane or not, Bills victories add a considerable amount of happiness to our lives. WAY too much for a "normal" person, and please place me at or near the top of this "fringe" list.

 

I believe that at some point in time, the Bills will win it all. The ONLY way I envision this happening is for us to have a few consecutive good drafts, and money for free agents (which we DO and will have in 07).

That said, our last 3 drafts have been horror shows, unless Whitner is Ronnie Lott, and JP turns into a quarterback who is not one of the very worst in the NFL (truthfully, both are risky at best scenarios).

 

The most frustrating part to me is that nothing changes, no matter who is GM. As I recall, the Bills made a move at the RFA OG from Ariz. I am glad to have Reyes, I really am, but he was our second choice; this after disregarding Hutch, who would have lent instant credibility to our OL.

 

Imo, it almost doesn't matter what the Bills do this year in terms of building a football team. Our biggest need (OL) was addressed once again in a back handed manner. We will probably pick relatively early in 07, but I no longer harbor much hope that our owner nor GM will ever come around to drafting to the needs of our football team ( a premier LT and other blockers). These men are 167 years old collectively. Do you expect them to soon see the light?

 

The good news is that New York still has a football team, and it is located in the wonderful reigon of WNY, an area full of great fans and great people.

I will be thrilled beyond words if we could surprise people (and myself) and win 5 or 6 games.

 

Either way, I am proud beyond words to be a fan of the Buffalo Bills Football Team, and to have made friends with so many here on TBD, differing opinions notwithstanding. Our cooler will have all different kinds of beer, and far more than we can possibly drink on 10/22. It has for the last consecutive 12 years.

Stop by 1/5 and join us for a couple if you can make it. It is as good as it gets.

 

GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Nanker]

The Bills are at their lowest in terms of ***Star Power*** than they have been in close to three decades. TD was a media insider who shared his high-test kool aide with his media chums and they didn't look past his smoke and mirrors approach to building a championship team.

 

Marv's got a different approach and I think it's sound. He has a clear idea of the type of team he wants to build and has set about building it. But you know what they say: "Rome wasn't built in a single Draft."

 

TD excelled at Pimping The Bills Ride, but the engine inside the kandy-colored-two-toned-tangerine-flake-low-rider-shock-pumpin'-Chevy-Nova-do-over-with-a-pop-up-42"-plasma-TV-in-the-trunk-and-a-rotating-50-gallon-tropical-fish-tank-in-da-back-seat-disco-ball-dome-light-complete-with-a-hula-skirt-doll-on-the-dashboard team he built was a burnt-out 327 short block with 200,000 miles on it. It wasn't built for the long haul.

 

When the media looks at today's Bills, what star do they see? McGahee? Wow! He's an enigma, possibly a malcontent who has yet to prove he's capable - or even if he's interested in taking this team on his back. LosNalComb? Ooooooooooh! I'll bet that Defensive Coordinators are sending secret messages to each other this off season trying to figure how they're going to game plan against that, aren't they? Ralph Wilson is a bigger sports media figure than any player on this team and it's not because he's venerated like Dan Rooney or George Halas were. It's because he schit in Jerry Jones' Stetson, threw up in Kraft's lap and pissed in Snyder's martini during the CBA talks. Then he kept calling Tags "Pete" to his face enough that Paul put him on the new Committee to Ensure Fairness to All Teams - or something like that.

 

The only thing I care about is - can Marv's guys Marv's play? That's it. The Green Bay Packers were a joke before Lombardi came to town. The Patsies were pitifull before BB got there. The Rams were a laughing stock before Vermeil took them to the dance.

 

All they've got to do is start winning and their fame will follow. What remains to be seen is if Marv's vision of a team can win and make progress from year to year. TD brought us a half decade that featured a wholesale gutting of the team, constant renovation, zero consistency and absolutely no developmental plan nor progress toward the Playoffs.

[Nanker]

Sounds like a blast! 

 

I want to make the point that the hard core posters here are part of what my dear friend nirvjam so accurately labeled as the "fringe element" of Bills Fans.

  Like it or not; sane or not, Bills victories add a considerable amount of happiness to our lives.    WAY too much for a "normal" person, and please place me at or near the top of this "fringe" list. 

 

I believe that at some point in time, the Bills will win it all. The ONLY way I envision this happening is for us to have a few consecutive good drafts, and money for free agents (which we DO and will have in 07).

That said, our last 3 drafts have been horror shows, unless Whitner is Ronnie Lott, and JP turns into a quarterback who is not one of the very worst in the NFL (truthfully, both are risky at best scenarios).

 

The most frustrating part to me is that nothing changes, no matter who is GM. As I recall, the Bills made a move at the RFA OG from Ariz. I am glad to have Reyes, I really am, but he was our second choice; this after disregarding Hutch, who would have lent instant credibility to our OL. 

 

Imo, it almost doesn't matter what the Bills do this year in terms of building a football team. Our biggest need (OL) was addressed once again in a back handed manner. We will probably pick relatively early in 07, but I no longer harbor much hope that our owner nor GM will ever come around to drafting to the needs of our football team ( a premier LT and other blockers). These men are 167 years old collectively. Do you expect them to soon see the light? 

 

The good news is that New York still has a football team, and it is located in the wonderful reigon of WNY, an area full of great fans and great people.

I will be thrilled beyond words if we could surprise people (and myself) and win 5 or 6 games.

 

Either way, I am proud beyond words to be a fan of the Buffalo Bills Football Team, and to have made friends with so many here on TBD, differing opinions notwithstanding. Our cooler will have all different kinds of beer, and far more than we can possibly drink on 10/22. It has for the last consecutive 12 years.

Stop by 1/5 and join us for a couple if you can make it. It is as good as it gets. 

 

GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

717164[/snapback]

 

Cheers!

[RuntheDamnBall]

That said, our last 3 drafts have been horror shows, unless Whitner is Ronnie Lott, and JP turns into a quarterback who is not one of the very worst in the NFL (truthfully, both are risky at best scenarios).

717164[/snapback]

I think it's going to happen, Bill. I really do. If the line doesn't get this kid killed -- and they have much to prove -- he is going to prove a lot of people wrong.

 

There are ample reasons to hate ESPN, but Ron Jaworski is not one of them, and the recent article about him meeting with Losman is, for me, a serious reason to be optimistic. Definitely respect Jaws and his football analysis.

GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

717164[/snapback]

Right on!