Does longevity make someone a HOFer?

[Albany,n.y.]

Even though I liked the guy, I think that letting Warren Moon into the HOF, in his first year of eligibility, lowered whatever bar there seemed to be for making the HOF.  Some made the same argument about Jim Kelly. 

 

Moon put up great stats, but in the end, really achieved nothing, except for the "fame" that is inherent in the honor.  So yes, it seems that longevity (right or wrong) contributes to one's hall of fame credentials.

 

I would rank Bledsoe ahead of Moon of Vinny.

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I think the difference between looking at Moon's stats in a gimmick offense and actually watching the guy play would have the watcher saying Moon does not belong in the HOF. What I really couldn't stand about Moon's selection was that it was done to right some (bogus) myth that Moon was ignored by the NFL when he came out of college because of his race. The fact that Doug Williams was taken in the 1st round by Tampa Bay with the 17th overall pick (ironically acquired in a trade with Houston) the same year Moon was eligible for the draft and Warren Moon was not drafted because he signed with the CFL BEFORE the NFL draft should debunk that myth. Although he had a shorter career, I think Doug Williams was a better QB than Warren Moon. The difference was Williams didn't play in a gimmick offense, PO'd people by jumping to the USFL and was never afraid to speak his mind. I'd vote for Doug Williams for the HOF before Moon, but really, neither one is a HOFer.

Williams also won a Super Bowl and never beat his wife!

[Fezmid]

Bledsoe's stats are far and away better than Testaverde, and I don't see how anyone can say Bledsoe has gotten his stats by "playing for a long time". Testaverde has nearly 50% more seasons played than Blesdoe! (20 vs 14). In that extra time, he has less than 2000 more yards than Bledsoe. Even looking at games played, Testaverde has over two full seasons worth of extra games played.

 

As others have pointed out, Bledsoe has a ring (which he not only earned by coming in and winning the Steelers game, but also by being a team player the whole season -- you think the Patriots win that Superbowl if Bledsoe makes a huge fuss about not being the starter when he's healty? Everyone talked about how classy that was, and the voters do take that stuff into consideration). He also has an AFC championship ring which they earned with him at the helm all year.

 

Testaverde has only 6 seasons of more than 3000 yards passing, Bledsoe has 9.

 

Testaverde has only 1 season of more than 4000 yards passing, Bledsoe has 3.

 

This isn't to say that Bledsoe does or does not belong in the HoF -- but saying that his stats are similar to Testaverde because he's played for a long time is clearly not factual.

CW

[Shamrock]

I think the whole argument about whether or not a player should be in the HoF depends on the player's overall success, be it championships, numbers, or intangibles. That's not very scientific, but I don't think a formula can be generated to determine a player's eligibility.

 

Thurman Thomas was considered not good enough!

[Orton's Arm]

As others have pointed out, Bledsoe has a ring (which he not only earned by coming in and winning the Steelers game, but also by being a team player the whole season -- you think the Patriots win that Superbowl if Bledsoe makes a huge fuss about not being the starter when he's healty?  Everyone talked about how classy that was, and the voters do take that stuff into consideration).  He also has an AFC championship ring which they earned with him at the helm all year.

Frank Reich did a much better job as the Bills' backup in playoff games than Bledsoe did as the Patriots backup. The fact that, at the age of 29, a healthy Bledsoe was sitting on the bench as the Patriots backup says a little something about whether the guy belongs in the Hall of Fame.

 

People are fond of calling Holcomb a "backup journeyman." In 2005, Holcomb's QB rating was 85.6. Bledsoe has only beaten that QB rating twice, and has never had a QB rating higher than 87.7. Peyton Manning's highest quarterback rating is a gaudy 121.1, Brady's best is 92.6.

 

Drew Bledsoe has posted a career passer rating of 77.3, while Rob Johnson's career passer rating is 83.6. I know Johnson's passer rating overstates his true value to the team, but to a lesser extent this is true of Bledsoe also.

[Fezmid]

Frank Reich did a much better job as the Bills' backup in playoff games than Bledsoe did as the Patriots backup.  The fact that, at the age of 29, a healthy Bledsoe was sitting on the bench as the Patriots backup says a little something about whether the guy belongs in the Hall of Fame.

 

People are fond of calling Holcomb a "backup journeyman."  In 2005, Holcomb's QB rating was 85.6.  Bledsoe has only beaten that QB rating twice, and has never had a QB rating higher than 87.7.  Peyton Manning's highest quarterback rating is a gaudy 121.1, Brady's best is 92.6. 

 

Drew Bledsoe has posted a career passer rating of 77.3, while Rob Johnson's career passer rating is 83.6.  I know Johnson's passer rating overstates his true value to the team, but to a lesser extent this is true of Bledsoe also.

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Passer rating is one of the most useless stats in all of professional sports.

[Pyrite Gal]

One of the issues which folks seem to be missing out on is that there is a difference between the questions "Does Bledsoe deserve to be in the HOF?" and "Will Bledsoe be in the HOF?"

 

Personally, I do not think he deserves to be in the HOF because overall in his career, because as an opponent, for the most part it did not scare me to face him. It did initially because of his rep and some impressive performances. However, after a very few seasons, his weaknesses became somewhat obvious and struck me as easily defensed.

 

He had and still has a rocket arm and now has a lot of game experience (but he never has shown the scary football brain that made me afraid to face him at crunch time). He can kill you if your players are not good (particularly your DBs) but he has struck me as an eminently beatable opponent.

 

The irony is here, that though he would not make into the Pyrite HOF, I am pretty certain he will make it into the NFL HOF.

 

1. The HOF is about FAME and not simply great play. Bledsoe was incredibly well regarded when he commanded a 1st round choice to get him in the draft. He followed that up with leading a team to the SB under Parcells, and even deserving a ring by throwing the winning TD playing QB in the majority of a must win game in the Pats 2001 Tom Brady led SB run. In addition, through some top notch seasons before opponents caught on to his stremgths/weaknesses and his longevity he will have glitzy stats.

 

2. The HOF is determined by a vote of a panel rather than solely on some raw statistical measurement. In Bledsoe's case, the accumulated stats in conjunction with his personal rep and accomplishments should be more than enough to gain him consideration. The QB competition he faces in this vote will likely eventually get him elected and possibly even in the first year unless he retires the same year as Favre.

 

3. The questions of whether he belongs in the HOF and whether the Bills should have traded for him are also two different questions. I think there is little question we should have traded for him as I think he was a far better alternative for us at QB in 2002 than AVP. Chris Chandler or Jeff Blake and the real alternatives out there.

 

I think he should have been cut after his horrible 2003 and it would have still been at worst a wash for us as we replaced the 1st round choice we traded for him with a choice which became WM (I doubt TD would have shown the cojones to seek a 1st for PP without the need to replace the one given up for DB).

 

Still I think folks are frstrated with DB and somehow ignore his 2002 for us when he played on the field well enough for us to deserve his Pro Bowl reserve nod (if one disagress then simply name the other QBs who deserved the AFC reserve nod more that year). However, folks frustration are not only misplaced in judging him a wash or not as a Bill, but misplaced in no realizing that whether he passes my test or not (or your test or not) as an HOF member, the votes that count are those of the NFL HOF committee.

 

They likely will vote DB as deserving HOF status based on his garnering the Fame to deserve it based on his glitzy numbers (both s few good years AND his longevity), his success (leading a team to the SB AND playing a key role in getting the 01 team a win), his being tossed on the reject pile and still making a comeback of accomplishment (making the Pro Bowl for the Bills after the NE cut and being a multi-year starter for Dallas (and potemtially even leading them to the playoffs in a weak NFC( after the Bills cut him.

 

I think he probably for sure is in (and certainly in if the Boys make the playoffs with him as QB even if it is their D and weak competition that get him there) even if he would not make my own HOF.

 

The NFL vote is the one that counts.

[Alaska Darin]

Certain People on this board believe that because Drew Bledsoe has high career passing yardage numbers and touchdown passes he is a future Hall of Fame QB. I think that these numbers are simply a result of playing a long time and am curious if people think that longevity should put someone in the Hall of Fame?

 

Drew's highest season for passing yards came in 1994 when he threw for 4555 yards but had 27 interceptions comparred to only 25 touchdowns. I ask you does the td to int ratio put a damper on the passing yards for this season and possibly others?

 

For his career he has 244 td passes compared to 198 ints. I'm not sure how this ratio stacks up against HOFers, but if it is unfavorable does it make the amount of touchdown passes he has thrown less impressive?

 

Vinny Testaverde has thrown for 45252 yards in his career comparred to Drew's 43447. Vinny has 269 td passes comparred to Drew's 244. If Drew goes to the Hall of Fame shouldn't Vinny? If you argue Drew should go and Vinny Shouldn't why?

 

Drew seems like at best an average QB who has played for a long time. I do not want this to be a Drew versus JP conversation. I want it to be enitrely about Drew.

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Drew Bledsoe's record as a starter against teams that finished the season with 10 or more wins.

 

8 wins

38 losses

 

Drew Bledsoe is a nice man and an absolute warrior, but no QB has come up consistantly smaller when it matters most. He is not an NFL HoFer but he's a first class dude.

[Orton's Arm]

Passer rating is one of the most useless stats in all of professional sports.

That's a very extreme position. As you know, passer rating is a function of TD passes, interceptions, completion percentage, and yards per attempt. Those four things are all very important for quarterbacks.

 

Off the top of my head, I can think of two ways in which a passer rating can present a distorted view of a quarterback's acccomplishments. One is the Rob Johnson example: a guy who takes too many sacks instead of throwing the ball away; thereby raising his completion percentage.

 

The second way--and I hate to admit this--is the Holcomb example: a guy who emphasizes short, high-percentage passes to inflate his completion percentage, and therefore his passer rating.

 

When comparing the QB ratings of two quarterbacks, it's important to maintain an awareness of the limitations and flaws of the system, and to make allowances. I feel Bledsoe's rating somewhat overstates his value, because of his slow decision making and tendency to take sacks. RJ had the sack problem even worse, plus there was the injury issue; so his quarterback rating was an even bigger overstatement of his value to the team.

 

The utility of quarterback rating is in the reality check it provides. Bledsoe is known as a big name passer. But his career quarterback rating is mediocre. When I watched him play for the Bills, I could see that mediocre quarterback rating was indicative of the kind of job he was doing, while that big name reputation wasn't.

[Pyrite Gal]

That's a very extreme position.  As you know, passer rating is a function of TD passes, interceptions, completion percentage, and yards per attempt.  Those four things are all very important for quarterbacks.

 

Off the top of my head, I can think of two ways in which a passer rating can present a distorted view of a quarterback's acccomplishments.  One is the Rob Johnson example: a guy who takes too many sacks instead of throwing the ball away; thereby raising his completion percentage. 

 

The second way--and I hate to admit this--is the Holcomb example: a guy who emphasizes short, high-percentage passes to inflate his completion percentage, and therefore his passer rating.

 

When comparing the QB ratings of two quarterbacks, it's important to maintain an awareness of the limitations and flaws of the system, and to make allowances.  I feel Bledsoe's rating somewhat overstates his value, because of his slow decision making and tendency to take sacks.  RJ had the sack problem even worse, plus there was the injury issue; so his quarterback rating was an even bigger overstatement of his value to the team. 

 

The utility of quarterback rating is in the reality check it provides.  Bledsoe is known as a big name passer.  But his career quarterback rating is mediocre.  When I watched him play for the Bills, I could see that mediocre quarterback rating was indicative of the kind of job he was doing, while that big name reputation wasn't.

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From what I see of the game, NFL QB ratings are in fact a non-representative stat of who in totality is a good or a bad QB. However, even though it is far from perfect (or anywhere near perfect in fact) it is a useful stat which provides some good insights into who is good and who is not.

 

I think the NFL passer rating is subject to abuse by those who claim it is completely worthless (the rules are the same for players being compared in the same year, so even to the extent it is off it is off in the same way for everyone and the comparison of QBs in that same year is valid and discrepancies between the rating and reality can be seen) and also by those who go to the opposite extreme and treat as some involuble Holy Grail which cannot be assaulted.

 

I think the worst though of the extreme view that lodges to much import in this stat is done by those who compare passer ratings garnered in one year versus passer ratings garnered in another year or try to compare one career to another career even though the passer ratings were produced in different years or different eras.

 

Trying to compare the passer ratings of a Joe Namath who played in a 14 game season under one set of NFL rules (everything from how the refs called pass interference, to contact rules beyond 5 yards downfield, to the 2 point conversion to other factors make this a very different game).

 

I'm not saying once cannot compare different players from different era. I'm just saying that one cannot use simple stats or claim any drop dead certain accuracy about the comparison due to stats because the numbers and the game were significanly different.

[Orton's Arm]

However, even though it is far from perfect (or anywhere near perfect in fact) it is a useful stat which provides some good insights into who is good and who is not.

Yours is a moderate view, and your point about rules changes is well-taken. The league is a lot more passing-friendly now than it used to be.

[Fla Bills Fan]

Bledsoe did about as much as Rob Johnson did in Tampa to earn his ring. It was Brady's team.

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The Pats would never been in the Superbowl if Bledsoe does not win the AFC championship game for them after Brady got hurt. Rob did not do squat for Tampa.

[Buftex]

The Pats would never been in the Superbowl if Bledsoe does not win the AFC championship game for them after Brady got hurt. Rob did not do squat for Tampa.

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Actually, if I recall correctly, RJ had at least one, if not two winning starts for the Bucs the year they won the Super Bowl. He was not great in any of his starts, and was sacked often, but was a "caretaker" QB, the way the Bills braintrust envisioned JP Losman going into the 2005 season.

[Buftex]

I will make a bold statement:

 

The first 8 games of the 2002 season, Drew Bledsoe had the best 8 game stretch of any Bills QB in my cogninsent Bills fan lifetime (1972-2005)...he may not be the HOF, second coming of Johnny Unitas, or even Jim Kelly, but he is not quite the piece of crap that many here seem to want to portray.

[Dibs]

In answer to the actual question....

Does longevity make someone a HOFer?

A resounding NO.

It can contribute, i.e. a 'Very Good' player who maintains that level for a 'long' time will probably be as deserving to be in the HOF as a 'Great' play who plays at that level for a 'normal' length of time.

IMO a 'Great' player who plays for a 'long' time is therefore deserved of 1st year entry.

Moon IMO was a 'Very Good' player who played for a 'long' time. Therefore deserves HOF status but certainly not in his 1st year elegable.

I find it odd having a discussion on Bledsoe(or Vinny) making the HOF when the question of whether they are 'Very Good' players or not is a hotly debated issue in its own right.

[MDH]

The Pats would never been in the Superbowl if Bledsoe does not win the AFC championship game for them after Brady got hurt. Rob did not do squat for Tampa.

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By Bledsoe "winning" that AFC Championship do you mean that the special teams put up 14 of the 24 points the Pats scored against the Steelers? Bledsoe played well during the first drive (throwing a TD pass I believe) but giving the guy credit for the win is far-fetched as he looked pretty bad for most of the second half.

 

Your statement should read, "The Pats would never (have) been in the Superbowl had their ST not put up 14 points on returns."

[Bob in STL]

All I know is that there was a lot of talk that Thurman Thomas wasn't a first-balloter or whatever but would get in eventually. What I don't get is that the same wasn't at least said about Moon.

 

The case for Thomas in the HoF is much better, by far, than that of Moon's regardless if you are a Bills fan or not.

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The Thurman snub is simply residual from the Bills going 0-4 in the SB. His stats stand by themselves and he was the best football player in the group that goes in this year. Had Norwood made that kick, Thurman gets the MVP and the ring and voila ... he is in on the first ballot.

 

Many of the writers just seem to be missing the point as they dangle the careers of great players with their votes.

[RuntheDamnBall]

All I know is that there was a lot of talk that Thurman Thomas wasn't a first-balloter or whatever but would get in eventually. What I don't get is that the same wasn't at least said about Moon.

 

The case for Thomas in the HoF is much better, by far, than that of Moon's regardless if you are a Bills fan or not.

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You have never been more right.

[BuffaloWings]

Thurman Thomas was considered not good enough!

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For what...the HoF? I doubt that. There are too many arguments *for* Thurman to be in the Hall than otherwise.

[RuntheDamnBall]

I will make a bold statement:

 

The first 8 games of the 2002 season, Drew Bledsoe had the best 8 game stretch of any Bills QB in my cogninsent Bills fan lifetime (1972-2005)...he may not be the HOF, second coming of Johnny Unitas, or even Jim Kelly, but he is not quite the piece of crap that many here seem to want to portray.

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I wish eight games made a whole season. Drew being the best half/season QB in history is sort of a dubious honor, don't you think?

 

Lots of QBs can be good before their system and tendencies are figured out, read: Flutie. The book was out on Drew by week 9 and he subsequently helped us miss the playoffs, that season and the next two.

 

Great QBs, Hall of Fame QBs, are great most of the time. They aren't figured out completely, and they themselves keep figuring out new things about defenses. I'm not certain Drew is that smart. If you want to argue that Drew hasn't had the best of personnel to work with at all times like other HoF QBs like Aikman, that I'll buy. How is it that the 'cerebral' Greg Williams and Mike Mularkey, former TE, never realized that Drew worked best with a big TE with great hands to rely on? That I'll never get.

[BuffaloWings]

I will make a bold statement:

 

The first 8 games of the 2002 season, Drew Bledsoe had the best 8 game stretch of any Bills QB in my cogninsent Bills fan lifetime (1972-2005)...he may not be the HOF, second coming of Johnny Unitas, or even Jim Kelly, but he is not quite the piece of crap that many here seem to want to portray.

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No offense, buftex, but there's nothing bold about that.

 

I've always agreed that Bledsoe is not nearly as bad as people made him out to be. He got lambasted here because of his weaknesses, which I thought was unfair as he played behind a bad OL. I remember some Patsies fans telling me shortly after the trade that Bledsoe - while a good QB - would never lead anyone to the Superbowl again. I didn't understand why for the first half of 2002. I can now understand why they said that, but he was missing a few pieces in Buffalo.