***PetrinoInAlbany*** Posted October 2, 2004 Posted October 2, 2004 Does anyone else think the line is way too low on this game? I think the books know something ... Based on the Scripps-Howard numbers, and even when including home field, the line on this thing should be way over five-and-a-half points. As a bettor of thirty years, I assume part of it stems from the fact that it is a division game. I can't imagine that the Deion Branch injury carries that much weight with the linemakers. Anyone else ponder this? Any thoughts?
Frez Posted October 2, 2004 Posted October 2, 2004 Does anyone else think the line is way too low on this game? I think the books know something ... Based on the Scripps-Howard numbers, and even when including home field, the line on this thing should be way over five-and-a-half points. As a bettor of thirty years, I assume part of it stems from the fact that it is a division game. I can't imagine that the Deion Branch injury carries that much weight with the linemakers. Anyone else ponder this? Any thoughts? 53067[/snapback] Isn't the spread based on where the money is going?
cåblelady Posted October 2, 2004 Posted October 2, 2004 Any thoughts? 53067[/snapback] I think you're sweet.
Paco Posted October 2, 2004 Posted October 2, 2004 The book only knows two things PIA - most gamblers are idiots and 10% makes for a great margin. I know because I've been gambling football for years. The number is not some mystical figure they pull out of their ass. It's formulaic, and then adjusted in accordance with the actions of us idiots. It's our previous performances that lead to the number.
stevestojan Posted October 2, 2004 Posted October 2, 2004 you get 3 points for being at home no matter what. If this game was played on neutral territory, it would be 8.5, and at new england? 11.5. (well, maybe not that bad, but it would be MUCH closer to 9 if it was in NE).
ATBNG Posted October 2, 2004 Posted October 2, 2004 you get 3 points for being at home no matter what. If this game was played on neutral territory, it would be 8.5, and at new england? 11.5. (well, maybe not that bad, but it would be MUCH closer to 9 if it was in NE). 53088[/snapback] I think you have it just about exactly right - because you are talking about two above average defensive teams, the home line effect is around 2-2.5 and the line would be 7.5 or so on a neutral field and 10ish in New England. I think the line is about right. Home divisional dogs are well known as a solid historical play, and more and more you see that fact reflected in the line.
***PetrinoInAlbany*** Posted October 2, 2004 Author Posted October 2, 2004 Isn't the spread based on where the money is going? 53069[/snapback] The spread is ADJUSTED based on where the money is going. But it's NOT the over-riding consideration, despite popular misconception. It's figured into the opening number slightly, but quantitative, formulaic power ranking is first, injuries second, home field (which - again, contrary to popular belief - is NOT always three points, but rather a sliding scale number that can vary between one and five points) and FINALLY anticipated action. That's the ORIGINAL line. It is later ADJUSTED based on betting action. But most people don't realize that the BIGGEST adjustment for "action" is NOT the change in the number, but rather the practice of "laying up" by the people taking the action. - - Laying up is simple. You're a book in Cleveland. Say 75% of the bets on the Bills-Pats game are coming in for New England, and it represents $300,000 ... You fix the balance by calling your guy in say, Vegas, and offer him $200,000 of the action on the Pats. He'll take it and the vig. Unless HE'S got a 70-30 Pats/Bills ratio, in which case you call your guy in Boston. Someone will always be out of balance the other way, and that's who you "lay up" with... - - Remember this and you'll understand it better: The OPTIMUM scenario for a bookmaker to make money is a perfect 50-50 balance on both sides of a bet. - - Forgive the Bookie 101 lesson, but over the years I have known quite a few. (Did some small-scale booking myself a LONG time ago.) It's really a fascinating science.
Guest Guest Posted October 2, 2004 Posted October 2, 2004 Very nice Petrino. The question should be why do so many wagerers seem to think that 5.5 is about right. Probably because the Pats can't seem to stop the run and we should be able to run. If it works out that way will keep the game close all by itself. I also think that people remember last season's 31-0 trouncing at home and seem to think that the Bills have additional motivation because of "Patriot Reign."
DC Tom Posted October 2, 2004 Posted October 2, 2004 Does anyone else think the line is way too low on this game? I think the books know something ... Based on the Scripps-Howard numbers, and even when including home field, the line on this thing should be way over five-and-a-half points. As a bettor of thirty years, I assume part of it stems from the fact that it is a division game. I can't imagine that the Deion Branch injury carries that much weight with the linemakers. Anyone else ponder this? Any thoughts? 53067[/snapback] Rule of thumb: when the spread makes one team look like a slam-dunk pick, take the other to beat the spread. It's an eerily effective strategy.
***PetrinoInAlbany*** Posted October 2, 2004 Author Posted October 2, 2004 Rule of thumb: when the spread makes one team look like a slam-dunk pick, take the other to beat the spread. It's an eerily effective strategy. 53196[/snapback] - - There's more wisdom in your response then perhaps you even know. Over the years, I used a variation of that strategy with success. My good friend "albany,n.y." pointed out to me once that there was a key factor working against a team trying to win and cover a fourteen-point spread. Simply ... common sense. How many times haveyou seen a team plastering another team, and then they'll switch to substitutes at key positions... Also, the "meaningless late score" syndrome. - -- I should also warn of the flip side of that, Tom. A "sucker bet" is a line that is very large (14 points and up is my standard) AND conceals a differential that is much higher. You see a lot of these in college ball. I generally stay away from them. For me, over the years, the exception is a game where other factors besides power differential can affect MARGIN and SCORING. Never, EVER spot fourteen points without checking the weather...
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