What Will It Take For You To Consider

[Rico]

One could go as far as say if Whitner is serviceable and McCargo is an all-pro, that the Whitner pick was a good one.

711705[/snapback]

I'd agree with that, & I see the logic behind the rest of your post. After the initial shock of drafting him wore off, I'm not too worried about Whitner anyways, McCargo is the one that needs to show me something.

[Bill from NYC]

  Being a top 10 pick does not always translate into a Pro Bowl player and some of the Pro Bowl selections have more to do with hype and popularity rather than on the field play.  Daryl Talley had a hard time making the Pro Bowl.  If Whitner plays with the impact of Talley then I am happy. 

 

711676[/snapback]

 

I agree, and that is why I said "pro-bowl caliber" player.

 

Imo, this situation is just a bit similar to the Mike Williams selection. No RT was ever drafted at #4 as far as I know, and I also don't recall a safety going in the top 10 who was actually the 2nd safety selected. In any event, both selections were at least uncommon.

The above, coupled with team needs and spurned offers to trade down for more picks is what made this selection a huge risk (if not ridiculous) imo.

Otoh, what's done is done, and I think fans are entitled to high expectations given the entire odd scenario.

[silvermike]

For the Whitner pick to be successful, he needs to work out better than the other options: Ngata, Bunkley, and Justice. If those three guys are turds, and Whitner is serviceable, then it was the right pick.

[H2o]

Yeah, but the way those other guys mentioned play could very well be different if they were on a different team and in a different scheme. They all have to be able to communicate from their position with others and make the right decisions for thei respective spots. I think Whitner will be a solid player. He's no Ed Reed or anything like that, but he should end up being a good player on our defensive unit. Once he gets the feel for NFL game speed and learns our defense, he culd very well be a Pro-Bowl caliber player. He definitely has all the physical attributes and talent seemingly.

[stuckincincy]

If he starts, he'll likely get his share of tackles, maybe a few picks.

 

What would really please me is while the game progresses, I start to realize that Whitner is almost always around the action - a tackle assist, cutting off an angle on a pass play, close to the pile on a run tackle, coming in from outside the camera's view and batting a pass and so forth.

 

That's what I see with players like Ray Lewis and Ed Reed.

 

Whitner may or may not earn all-pro during his career, but if he proves to have the ability to be consistently in on the action, he's a gem.

[R. Rich]

Although things have changed as of late, safeties are generally not selected in the top 10. Additionally, Marv himself admitted that there were offers to trade down and gather additional picks. Whitner was even surprised to be selected at #8.

 

  Given the above, and assuming that he remains healthy for the sake of this discussion, I would want lots of production in his first 2 seasons, and pro-bowl caliber play by his 3rd to feel OK with this pick.

  A case could be made that #8 is too high for ALMOST any safety, let alone one who is merely "good." Plus, by rejecting the trade offer, we missed on the opportunity to develop 2 (perhaps 3) first round picks on our rebuilding team.

  That said, if he is a pro-bowl player, I cannot consider this anything but a good selection.

 

  Opinions?

711642[/snapback]

 

 

He must make the Hall of Fame. Next year.

[K-9]

Although things have changed as of late, safeties are generally not selected in the top 10. Additionally, Marv himself admitted that there were offers to trade down and gather additional picks. Whitner was even surprised to be selected at #8.

 

  Given the above, and assuming that he remains healthy for the sake of this discussion, I would want lots of production in his first 2 seasons, and pro-bowl caliber play by his 3rd to feel OK with this pick.

  A case could be made that #8 is too high for ALMOST any safety, let alone one who is merely "good." Plus, by rejecting the trade offer, we missed on the opportunity to develop 2 (perhaps 3) first round picks on our rebuilding team.

  That said, if he is a pro-bowl player, I cannot consider this anything but a good selection.

 

  Opinions?

711642[/snapback]

 

You heard it here first: Whitner will be AFC Defensive Rookie fo the Year. Mark my words. Given our offense, our D will be on the field A LOT. He will get lots of chances to make plays, they will try to exploit him, etc. He will get a minimum of 8 INTs (a la Henry Jones). Voters LOVE the stats. Mark it down.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Scraps]

You heard it here first: Whitner will be AFC Defensive Rookie fo the Year. Mark my words. Given our offense, our D will be on the field A LOT. He will get lots of chances to make plays, they will try to exploit him, etc. He will get a minimum of 8 INTs (a la Henry Jones). Voters LOVE the stats. Mark it down.

 

GO BILLS!!!

711834[/snapback]

 

Why will opposing offenses throw on our defense when they will be averaging 5 yards per carry on the run?

[PromoTheRobot]

First Patriot play from scrimmage...receiver goes across the middle and is knocked into the next area code by Wittner.

 

PTR

[K-9]

Why will opposing offenses throw on our defense when they will be averaging 5 yards per carry on the run?

711837[/snapback]

 

Just to break up the monotony? Good point. In that case he becomes a run-stopping dynamo at safety. Mutlitple fumbles caused and/or recoverd. Lots of tackles for losses. Oh, man. We're doomed.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Realist]

I think whitnet needs to play at a high level, and stabilize the SS position for the Bills for the long term. If Whitner plays well enough where we dont have to worry about the SS position for many years, then i think its a successful pick. Ideally i'd liek to see him develop into a polamalu/roy williams type player and be a game changer, and i dont think thats an unreasonable expectation for a top 10 pick.

 

I agree with pro-bowl quality play, but not necessarily a pro-bowl selection. Frankly, if he doesnt make the pro bowl only because he got beat out by reed and polamalu, thats fine by me.

 

Finally, i think we are seeing a shift in defensive strategy on the part of NFL teams. Traditionally, safties are not drafted very high, but recently, more have been. I think coaches are starting to value what a  difference a true playmaker at safety can be, and subsequently, teams are spending higher picks on them. Recently, Sean Taylor, Roy Williams, have gone top 10, and polamalu and reed are mid 1st round picks. I think its tough to bash the whitner selection too much, because 3 safeties were drafted in the top 15 picks this year.

711690[/snapback]

 

 

 

Couldn't have said it better myself. This is what we should be expecting of Whitner and this is probably what the coaching staff expects of him.

[eball]

The Whitner pick, to me, needs to be looked at as a package deal with McCargo. The Bills had several holes to fill. At #8 they pretty much knew who was going to be available, within 1-2 players. They decided before the draft that they were going to get a SS to play this defense and a DT to stop the run and fill the gap of the loss of Adams. This was reinforced by the signing of Reyes to play OG right before the draft.

 

The conventional wisdom was to look at Ngala or Bunkley. But the Bills decided, and came right and said it after, that they thought the combination of Whitner and McCargo, who they wanted all along, was a better combination than Bunkley (or Ngala) and the #3 SS (because Huff and Whitner) would surely be gone.

 

It's an understandable strategy, and I think probably true. The more I see of Whitner, the more I like. And I always liked McCargo. So the play of those two, IMO, after 2-3 years, will be the determining factor in whether the Whitner pick was a good one. One could go as far as say if Whitner is serviceable and McCargo is an all-pro, that the Whitner pick was a good one.

711705[/snapback]

I'm not suggesting you plagiarized, but this is essentially the same analysis offered by Pat Kirwan to discuss the Bills' decisions on draft day. It all depends upon whether you like Whitner/McCargo better than Bunkley/name-your-safety. The picks are tied together and should not be viewed as independent events.

[Kelly the Dog]

I'm not suggesting you plagiarized, but this is essentially the same analysis offered by Pat Kirwan to discuss the Bills' decisions on draft day.  It all depends upon whether you like Whitner/McCargo better than Bunkley/name-your-safety.  The picks are tied together and should not be viewed as independent events.

711893[/snapback]

He probably read the same thing I did. It was an interview with someone from the Bills, perhaps Modrak, or maybe Chris Brown. I didn't make that up, nor is it just my theory, I read that from someone high up with the Bills that this was their strategy (it came out after the draft). That's why I said they came right out and said it after. It makes sense.

[Orton's Arm]

Just to give this some perspective, what percentage of top-ten draftees end up as pro bowlers by their third year? I ask this sincerely, since I don't know.  I suspect the number is nowhere near 50%. I would be surprised if it goes past 30%.

 

I think the bar is being set a little too high.

I disagree. If your QB is merely average for a starter, he may well be worth the 8th overall pick. But typically SS is considered a lower-impact position than most. No SS is worth 8th overall unless he's a special player. I don't care who else was available, or what defensive tackles were available where, or any of that other stuff. The Bills had more holes than a pound of Swiss cheese. A team in that situation can't afford to spend the 8th overall pick on a SS, unless it gets a real difference maker in return.

[Albany,n.y.]

What might be more relevant is how good is he compared to other alleged top 10 prospects that we passed on such as Lienart, Ngata, and and Bunkley.

711676[/snapback]

That's how I feel. If Leinart becomes the next Joe Montana and JP becomes the next Rob, Nall becomes the next Gale Gilbert & Holcomb becomes the next Holcomb, it was a bad choice-no matter how well Whitner performs at S. Likewise, if McCargo busts and Ngata or Bunkley is a multi year Pro Bowler, then I'd say it's a bad pick.

If JP or Nall becomes a solid starter, McCargo outplays Ngata & Bunkley (Which I think he will over the length of their careers.) and Whitner is better than the guys taken below him at Bills positions of need, he's a good pick.

The bottom line is what the other guys, both on the team and the guys drafted by other teams, do over the next few years.

[John from Riverside]

In order to be justified to be picked that high....Whitner not only needs to be a periennial pro bowler in the near future.....but a leader of this team as well......

[eball]

He probably read the same thing I did. It was an interview with someone from the Bills, perhaps Modrak, or maybe Chris Brown. I didn't make that up, nor is it just my theory, I read that from someone high up with the Bills that this was their strategy (it came out after the draft). That's why I said they came right out and said it after. It makes sense.

711905[/snapback]

Right. It's just a shame that so few of the national media (and Bills' fans) understand this.

[Sisyphean Bills]

Him leading the defense in 2 or 3 Super Bowl victories would be a good start.

[Orton's Arm]

They decided before the draft that they were going to get a SS to play this defense and a DT to stop the run and fill the gap of the loss of Adams. . . . The Bills decided, and came right and said it after, that they thought the combination of Whitner and McCargo, who they wanted all along, was a better combination than Bunkley (or Ngala) and the #3 SS (because Huff and Whitner) would surely be gone.

Why? Why? Why did the first two picks need to be a DT and a SS? Were there no needs elsewhere on this team?

 

Say the first two picks had been used on a Phil Hansen-like DE to line up opposite Schobel, and a solid LT or OG who'd be an above-average starter for the next ten years. Would picks like those be such a tragedy? Or say those first two picks had involved an OLB who significantly upgraded the Jeff Posey spot, and a TE who'd be a notch or two below Antonio Gates. Would that be so terrible?

 

If you accept the logic that the Bills should have locked in on those two positions--SS and DT--with their first two picks, then yes, the Whitner/McCargo selection makes sense. But I see no reason at all to buy into this inital premise. Why on earth should the Bills lock into the SS and DT positions when there's so much need to improve elsewhere? Other than Peters, who are the Bills' linemen? Who is the DE who will line up opposite Schobel?

 

If Whitner plays at a Pro Bowl level, taking him at #8 overall makes sense. But if he merely turns out to be an average or somewhat above-average starter, then it was a mistake for the Bills or any other team to take him in the top 15. There were just too many other ways that draft pick could have been put to use for this team.

[Nanker]

1. Why? Why?  Why did the first two picks need to be a DT and a SS?  Were there no needs elsewhere on this team? 

 

Say the first two picks had been used on a Phil Hansen-like DE to line up opposite Schobel, and a solid LT or OG who'd be an above-average starter for the next ten years.  Would picks like those be such a tragedy?  Or say those first two picks had involved an OLB who significantly upgraded the Jeff Posey spot, and a TE who'd be a notch or two below Antonio Gates.  Would that be so terrible? 

 

If you accept the logic that the Bills should have locked in on those two positions--SS and DT--with their first two picks, then yes, the Whitner/McCargo selection makes sense.  2. But I see no reason at all to buy into this inital premise.  Why on earth should the Bills lock into the SS and DT positions when there's so much need to improve elsewhere?  Other than Peters, who are the Bills' linemen?  Who is the DE who will line up opposite Schobel? 

 

If Whitner plays at a Pro Bowl level, taking him at #8 overall makes sense.  But if he merely turns out to be an average or somewhat above-average starter, then it was a mistake for the Bills or any other team to take him in the top 15.  There were just too many other ways that draft pick could have been put to use for this team.

712015[/snapback]

 

Answers:

1. Because Marv decided that was how he was going to go. He's building the team the way he wants to and you don't get a vote in the process.

2. See Answer #1.

 

To answer Bill's question, Whitner's going to look like a fantastic pick if and when he plays like Leonard Smith and Hava Nagila (and the others like Bunkley that so many here were in love with prior to the draft) show up like Mike "Big Tank" Williams did.