If the Bills win the Super Bowl within 3 years

[Orton's Arm]

Villariel is a decent player and by no means has his production been below average.  He's the definition of a hard-nosed average player.  He won't star on any lines but many teams would be happy having a player like him on their line.

 

Not only is Shelton not a below average FB he's an above average one.  He struggled at times last season but given his production previously he's considered by many to be one of the best blocking fullbacks in the league (check out the latest Pro Football Weekly guide).  While I don't agree with that stellar report he's still above average.

 

Fletcher is an above average LB, trying to sell it any other way is disingenuous.

 

Spikes is an above average LB, one of the best in the league in fact.  You can't count it against TD that Spikes was injured and his status is unknown.  Those things happen and it shouldn’t reflect poorly on the GM when they do (unless one is trying to create an argument stating how bad a GM is, then everything counts against him I suppose).

 

McGahee, while not a top tier back, if definitely above average, particularly considering the OL he runs behind.

 

I can't say I can argue with most of your other ratings (though I could see some people disagreeing with Teague and Milloy.  Milloy was bad last year but much of that could be attributed to injury.  Before that injury he was an average S).

 

So if you reconfigure the totals you have based on the above it looks like this:

+'s: 7

0's: 5

-'s: 10

 

While the above isn't really a vindication of the job TD did I think the other poster is spot on.  TD needed to be fired but he wasn't nearly as bad as many here want to make him sound.

711040[/snapback]

The aging Villarrial had one good year for the Bills--just one--before injuries kept him from doing much in 2005. You seem to expect him to be the player he was two years ago, while I don't.

 

You admit Shelton had an off year last year, and that you're basing your favorable assessment of him more on what he's done in the past than on his more recent production. He'll be 34 come September. Should the Bills really count on getting above-average play from him in 2006 and beyond?

 

Fletcher has indeed been above average, but he's 31. Sooner or later--probably sooner--his play will decline to a merely average level.

 

In 2005, McGahee had a rather uninspiring 3.8 yards per carry, and fewer than 200 receiving yards. He isn't a particularly special back based strictly on production, nor did he seem to have the same burst he had in college. He may well turn out to be a significantly above-average back, but he hasn't proven this yet.

 

As for Spikes, he was a relatively young but proven player that TD chose to throw a lot of money at. It was a good decision at the time--don't get me wrong. But everyone in the league knew Spikes could play, and that he played with passion. Signing him took about as much acumen as picking up a $100 bill in the street. Considering TD was merely displaying a grasp of the obvious when signing Spikes, I'm not in a hurry to give him more credit than Spikes' future value to the team will probably warrant.

 

I think the fundamental difference between our two approaches is that you're willing to give TD the benefit of the doubt for older free agents such as Villarrial or Shelton who have had off years in 2005. I tend to take a more pessimistic view of such players: to me, if an older player has an off year, I feel he's probably on the decline.

[tennesseeboy]

One other thought. It is clear (or at least pretty clear) that the ML/DJ defense scheme (at least) is being shaped very differently than anything the Bills used under TD's reign. It is clear that neither the GW/TD strategy nor the MM/TD strategies were in any way effective. In three years the play will almost certainly be ML/DJ play. There is more to the GM than finding talent, there is also building a coaching staff and insuring that the talent is best utilized. The failure to build a "Drew Bledsoe" offense when you have Drew Bledsoe and the failure to use an effective running game with both Henry and McGahee are TD legacies as much as GW and MM. This draft is a great example. Argue about talent all you want, ML/DJ made it very clear where they are going and what they want (on defense at least) by their draft. Different than what I and most were arguing for, and the first pick was a shocker for many...but they know where they are going and are drafting talent consistent with their plans. If it is successful (and I for one would consider winning a superbowl in three years very acceptable indeed) I'd have to give almost all (if not all) the credit to ML/DJ. Wait and see.

[ndirish1978]

I'd sooner take an iron to my face than give TD credit for anything other than multiple years of pain sporadically interrupted by shocking drafts picks that cruelly gave me hope.