The Logjam Ahead of Martin Nance

[eSJayDee]

As for special teams prowess, Aiken is a WR first and a pretty poor one at that. I'd rather try and teach Nance special teams than to hope that Aiken suddenly improves as a receiver.

 

You typically KO about 5 times per game. Likewise, that's about the avg punts/game. You of course rcv a like #. That means that if Aiken is among our best ST players, he'll be on the field for 20 plays. (He likely doesn't play on FG attempts.)

 

Now the 3rd WR might see the field on 20 or more plays a game. But the 4th or 5th? I don't think so.

 

Aiken can be a ST player 1st, & a WR 2nd. (Sorta like Tasker was; seemed to work out okay for him and that was in a day b4 53 man rosters.)

[Pyrite Gal]

Why do you think that he couldnt be a #2 or 3. Who else besides Evans is assured a spot in the rotation.

708259[/snapback]

 

 

First, I think that ST play will determine which #5, #6 or amazingly a 7th WR stays. Its nice and a great theory to build for the future, but the reality is that the future is now whether one likes it or not for the modern NFL team.

 

1. There are simply too many great athletes who are divided by not much at the lower end (noon-starters) of the roster.

 

2. Under the world of the CBA, there there are simply too many players who do not have a large difference in their contribution now such that players who get large bonuses are going to be kept over players who have not already been paid.

 

3. Particularly for the Bills who have missed the playoffs for so many years and Ralph ain't gettin younger they have a strong intetrest in immediate contribution to the team and Ralph not liking paying for players (or anyone given how he handled things with Wade when he got the boot) to it on the bench or at home.

 

If Nance is judged one of the 4th or lower WRs then he must contribute on ST or he gets the boot. Potential is a great thing but it simply means you have not done anything yet.

 

You ask though whether he can in fact contribute by being one of the top 4 WR position players so that he need not depend on his ST contribution. For cap and quality reasons position play at this high a level looks tough for him despite his size and him catching every thing throen his way.

 

1. Evans- no comparison here at this 2 year vet who has produced TDs at the pro level has world class speed and no signs of the droppsies that infect some good WRs. His draft position and contract make it prohibitive to see him not contribute unless an injury occurs.

 

2. Peerless- Also has shown world class speed which Nance does not have. He failed at being AT's #1, but suceeded at beng the Bills #2 in 2002. The questions is there some eye or injury problem which was the casue of his failure such that he cannot resume his former production.

 

My sense is that given the Billss docs have had a thorough chance to look at him the injury issue is probably not a big one. Given that we are on the hook with for a $2 mill bonus, and that he really only has be good enough to be oour #3 to provide the same converage benefits his speed provides when teamed with Evans and our #2 (unless PP is that guy) he easily is one of our top 4 and actually one of our top 3 WRs.

 

3. Parrish- He is also is a well regarded rookie we will pay his slotted bonus to whether we play him or not. He has shown in his rookie year, some real speed, and shiftiness as an open field runner. His hands were good enough as a rookie as well. Like PP he easily is one of our top 3 and if he steps up our #2.

 

4. Reed- also given a bonus as his contract was extended when they could have let him walk. After a solid rookie year, he had the droppsies and injuries which made keeping him quite questionable, but his ST play and solid though undistringuished performance last year seemed to get him through. He does have some good RAC potential as a former RB and perhaps if we get a St L. style O going he may prosper as a short pass artist in that type of O.

 

As far as Nance goes, he suffers in terms of bonus already paid to these four and each of them has something which gives them potential (shiftiness -Parrish, sped- Price, RAC- Reed) just as hieght gives Nance potential. They all are vets compared to Nance being a rookie.

 

It just seems doubtful he can beat out any of these 4 and this puts him into athe ST contribution battle with others for the #5, probably #6 and possibly #7 WR spot.

 

Aiken probably beats him out given his very good ST perfornance and the bonus extension of his contract.

 

I think he beats out Fast Freddy if he continues to perform as he has as we have a bunch of PR guys ahead of Smith lowering his ST potential, Like nance, Wilson is a wildcard who has shown well over the years.

 

The bottomline is competition is great!

[BUFFALOTONE]

there is no way that nance is close to being equal too - much less better than - price or reed at this point in his career.

708307[/snapback]

 

I never said he was, but if he out plays these guys he shouldnt start because they are paying reed and price more.

[Mickey]

You typically KO about 5 times per game.  Likewise, that's about the avg punts/game.  You of course rcv a like #.  That means that if Aiken is among our best ST players, he'll be on the field for 20 plays.  (He likely doesn't play on FG attempts.)

 

Now the 3rd WR might see the field on 20 or more plays a game.  But the 4th or 5th?  I don't think so.

 

Aiken can be a ST player 1st, & a WR 2nd.  (Sorta like Tasker was; seemed to work out okay for him and that was in a day b4 53 man rosters.)

708320[/snapback]

Tasker was the best ST player to have played the game and he was a good receiver (Kelly called him "uncoverable"), Aiken isn't anywhere near that class at either position. Nance has real potential, enough to be playing a lot more than 20 plays a game in a couple years, maybe a lot sooner. Besides, number of plays isn't a measure of performance or importance. How many of those ST's plays are touchbacks, fair catches or kicks out of bounds?

 

I have no idea at this point if Nance is going to be much better than Aiken as a WR or on ST but if he proves he is a much better WR in camp, I say let Aiken go and teach Nance how to play special teams.

[Mickey]

there is no way that nance is close to being equal too - much less better than - price or reed at this point in his career.

708307[/snapback]

What is that based on?

 

I'd reserve my judgment on that until I get a chance to see Nance play. I have seen Price and Reed play and neither, especially lately, are anything to write home about. Nance wouldn't have to be all world to be better than those guys.

 

Reed, 5-10, 208 lbs, in 2005 he had 32 catches for 449 14yds per, and 2 tds

 

Price, 5-11, 190 lbs, in 2004 he had 45 for 575yds, 12.8 per and 3 tds

 

Nance, 6-4, 213 lbs, in 2005 he had 81 for 1,107 yds, over 100 per gm, 14 tds

 

Nance would excel as a red zone go to guy due to his size. Know what JP's numbers were inside the opponents 20? 31% complete, less than 2 yards per attempt. One pick, 4 sacks and only 3 tds. Maybe he could use another option in the red zone? I'd give you Holcombs red zone numbers but I don't want to dishearten JP's fans, me included, with the comparison.

[BUFFALOTONE]

What is that based on?

 

I'd reserve my judgment on that until I get a chance to see Nance play.  I have seen Price and Reed play and neither, especially lately, are anything to write home about.  Nance wouldn't have to be all world to be better than those guys.

 

Reed, 5-10, 208 lbs, in 2005 he had 32 catches for 449 14yds per, and 2 tds

 

Price, 5-11, 190 lbs, in 2004 he had 45 for 575yds,  12.8 per and 3 tds

 

Nance, 6-4, 213 lbs, in 2005 he had 81 for 1,107 yds, over 100 per gm, 14 tds

 

Nance would excel as a red zone go to guy due to his size.  Know what JP's numbers were inside the opponents 20?  31% complete, less than 2 yards per attempt.  One pick, 4 sacks and only 3 tds.  Maybe he could use another option in the red zone?  I'd give you Holcombs red zone numbers but I don't want to dishearten JP's fans, me included, with the comparison.

708402[/snapback]

 

Couldnt agree more with you Mickey. Reed couldnt catch a cold and we all know the story of PP. I am not saying I wouldnt want these to clowns to do well but if Nance steps up tand become a go to guy than why would we bench him in favor of 2 over payed slackers. IMO>

[BUFFALOTONE]

First, I think that ST play will determine which #5, #6 or amazingly a 7th WR stays.  Its nice and a great theory to build for the future, but the reality is that the future is now whether one likes it or not for the modern NFL team.

 

1. There are simply too many great athletes who are divided by not much at the lower end (noon-starters) of the roster.

 

2. Under the world of the CBA, there there are simply too many players who do not have a large difference in their contribution now such that players who get large bonuses are going to be kept over players who have not already been paid.

 

3. Particularly for the Bills who have missed the playoffs for so many years and Ralph ain't gettin younger they have a strong intetrest in immediate contribution to the team and Ralph not liking paying for players (or anyone given how he handled things with Wade when he got the boot) to it on the bench or at home.

 

If Nance is judged one of the 4th or lower WRs then he must contribute on ST or he gets the boot.  Potential is a great thing but it simply means you have not done anything yet.

 

You ask though whether he can in fact contribute by being one of the top 4 WR position players so that he need not depend on his ST contribution. For cap and quality reasons position play at this high a level looks tough for him despite his size and him catching every thing throen his way.

 

1. Evans- no comparison here at this 2 year vet who has produced TDs at the pro level has world class speed and no signs of the droppsies that infect some good WRs.  His draft position and contract make it prohibitive to see him not contribute unless an injury occurs.

 

2. Peerless- Also has shown world class speed which Nance does not have. He failed at being AT's #1, but suceeded at beng the Bills #2 in 2002.  The questions is there some eye or injury problem which was the casue of his failure such that he cannot resume his former production.

 

My sense is that given the Billss docs have had a thorough chance to look at him the injury issue is probably not a big one. Given that we are on the hook with for a $2 mill bonus, and that he really only has be good enough to be oour #3 to provide the same converage benefits his speed provides when teamed with Evans and our #2 (unless PP is that guy) he easily is one of our top 4 and actually one of our top 3 WRs.

 

3. Parrish- He is also is a well regarded rookie we will pay his slotted bonus to whether we play him or not.  He has shown in his rookie year, some real speed, and shiftiness as an open field runner.  His hands were good enough as a rookie as well. Like PP he easily is one of our top 3 and if he steps up our #2.

 

4.  Reed- also given a bonus as his contract was extended when they could have let him walk.  After a solid rookie year, he had the droppsies and injuries which made keeping him quite questionable, but his ST play and solid though undistringuished performance last year seemed to get him through.  He does have some good RAC potential as a former RB and perhaps if we get a St L. style O going he may prosper as a short pass artist in that type of O.

 

As far as Nance goes, he suffers in terms of bonus already paid to these four and each of them has something which gives them potential (shiftiness -Parrish, sped- Price, RAC- Reed) just as hieght gives Nance potential.  They all are vets compared to Nance being a rookie.

 

It just seems doubtful he can beat out any of these 4 and this puts him into athe ST contribution battle with others for the #5, probably #6 and possibly #7 WR spot.

 

Aiken probably beats him out given his very good ST perfornance and the bonus extension of his contract.

 

I think he beats out Fast Freddy if he continues to perform as he has as we have a bunch of PR guys ahead of Smith lowering his ST potential,  Like nance, Wilson is a wildcard who has shown well over the years.

 

The bottomline is competition is great!

708321[/snapback]

 

blah blah blah. Dude you seem to make a valid point once in a while. There has to be a way to compress your statements. You seem like you are trying to come off as way to intellectual. Just talk football man.

[JDG]

I have no idea at this point if Nance is going to be much better than Aiken as a WR or on ST but if he proves he is a much better WR in camp, I say let Aiken go and teach Nance how to play special teams.

708388[/snapback]

 

I think that Marv and April are going to put a lot more emphasis on special teams in player evaluations than simply taking the attitude (oh, we can teach anyone to do it.)

 

JDG

[ganesh]

Either he beats out Sam Aiken and/or he goes to the Practice Squad.

[Pyrite Gal]

What is that based on?

 

I'd reserve my judgment on that until I get a chance to see Nance play.  I have seen Price and Reed play and neither, especially lately, are anything to write home about.  Nance wouldn't have to be all world to be better than those guys.

 

Reed, 5-10, 208 lbs, in 2005 he had 32 catches for 449 14yds per, and 2 tds

 

Price, 5-11, 190 lbs, in 2004 he had 45 for 575yds,  12.8 per and 3 tds

 

Nance, 6-4, 213 lbs, in 2005 he had 81 for 1,107 yds, over 100 per gm, 14 tds

 

Nance would excel as a red zone go to guy due to his size.  Know what JP's numbers were inside the opponents 20?  31% complete, less than 2 yards per attempt.  One pick, 4 sacks and only 3 tds.  Maybe he could use another option in the red zone?  I'd give you Holcombs red zone numbers but I don't want to dishearten JP's fans, me included, with the comparison.

708402[/snapback]

You are not seriously offering up a comparison of stats achieved in ciollege ball with stats achieved in pro ballas though they are at all comparable or at least deserve some acknowledgement that numbers achieved against college level competition and #s achieved against pro competition are really different for an indidivual except for a few vert goos players usually drafted in the first few picks of the first round rather than being signed as UDFAs like Nance.

 

Even the best college draftees acknowledge that becoming a pro level plater is just a very different thing as its like playing against the best college players all the time.

 

While I agree that Nance looks quite likelyto be a better player than Reed in a few years (if not sooner) and will consider himself a lucky man if his first four years of production equal PP's. the answer from most pro ti this observsation would be that teams will line-up to get Nance in a few years when he meets and exceeds Josh Reed's totals.

 

For now, it is likely the PS for Nance and maybe if he shows he can contribute this year to the Bills most likely on ST he would make the active roster.

[Mickey]

I think that Marv and April are going to put a lot more emphasis on special teams in player evaluations than simply taking the attitude (oh, we can teach anyone to do it.)

 

JDG

708413[/snapback]

 

Not just anyone, we are talking about a 6-4 WR who runs a 4.5 forty who is a good blocker. Tell me why they can't teach him to play special teams? If it comes down to a guy who can be a real threat at WR and who can play ST's and a guy who can play ST's but not WR, who do you think they will keep?

 

Somebody please tell me what Sam Aiken does that is so special on ST's that no one else can do?

[Mickey]

You are not seriously offering up a comparison of stats achieved in ciollege ball with stats achieved in pro ballas though they are at all comparable or at least deserve some acknowledgement that numbers achieved against college level competition and #s achieved against pro competition are really different for an indidivual except for a few vert goos players usually drafted in the first few picks of the first round rather than being signed as UDFAs like Nance.

 

Even the best college draftees acknowledge that becoming a pro level plater is just a very different thing as its like playing against the best college players all the time.

 

While I agree that Nance looks quite likelyto be a better player than Reed in a few years (if not sooner) and will consider himself a lucky man if his first four years of production equal PP's. the answer from most pro ti this observsation would be that teams will line-up to get Nance in a few years when he meets and exceeds Josh Reed's totals.

 

For now, it is likely the PS for Nance and maybe if he shows he can contribute this year to the Bills most likely on ST he would make the active roster.

708432[/snapback]

 

I am just using the only stats we have and made no effort at all to claim that they were directly comparable. The point was that neither Price nor Reed are anything special at this point and their stats certainly show just that. The point being that Nance making this roster is not as impossible as the post to which I was replying indicated.

 

I haven't seen Nance play in the pros but I have seen the other two play. Lets see what he can do and if he outplays the guys ahead of him, I don't care who they are, he should make the roster. Radical position, I know but I'm sticking to it.

[Pyrite Gal]

I am just using the only stats we have and made no effort at all to claim that they were directly comparable.  The point was that neither Price nor Reed are anything special at this point and their stats certainly show just that.  The point being that Nance making this roster is not as impossible as the post to which I was replying indicated.

 

I haven't seen Nance play in the pros but I have seen the other two play.  Lets see what he can do and if he outplays the guys ahead of him, I don't care who they are, he should make the roster.  Radical position, I know but I'm sticking to it.

708442[/snapback]

 

Fair enough in a football sense, but a radical position if it chooses to ignore the business realities of the game. Like it or not, the NFL used to be a sport which also happened to be a business and today it is a business which happens to be a sport.

 

As I laid out in stultifying detail above, the reality of the business simply dictates that Evans-Price/Parrish- and Reed are going to get the first four WR skits unless something unusual and quite stupendous happens regarding an FA like Davis or a UDFa like Nance.

 

These two are more likely to compete with Aiken, Fast Freddy, and Wilson (who were on the roster last year) and also Denney for the #5, probably #6 and possibly #7 roster spots. As this team always wants players to contribute to the team here and now and even more so given the playoff drought under TD and Ralph's age these last two slots are likely to see a premium put on ST contribution.

 

The point which I think is worth making is that for a Bills fan who wants Nance on this team, the best outcome is likely that he is as impressive as he has been in OTAs and the mandatory practices, but actually has a couple of well-timed drops in the pre-season.

 

If this happens, we are more likely to sneak him through the FA process to be on our PS, because he would have to really show a lot of special things as a position player to make us force Ralph to pay somebody to play elsewhere or sit at home because we paid them a bonus and cut them,

 

It looks like the best shot for Nance to make this team will be on the PS )particularly if you think he is a year or two away from contributing) because if he is that good, but not good enough to make the coaches make Ralph pay for nothing then he likely will get scarfed up by someone else when we cut him rather than end up on our PS.

 

Personally, I hope Nance is great and makes choosing among players in this competition really tough for our coaches.

[LaDairis]

Not just anyone, we are talking about a 6-4 WR who runs a 4.5 forty who is a good blocker.  Tell me why they can't teach him to play special teams?  If it comes down to a guy who can be a real threat at WR and who can play ST's and a guy who can play ST's but not WR, who do you think they will keep?

 

Somebody please tell me what Sam Aiken does that is so special on ST's that no one else can do?

708433[/snapback]

 

 

 

Ah, the 6'4" runs a 4.5 40 = football skills theory...

 

Add in a few receiving stats from the MAC and get a bust ready for him in Canton...

 

Well, to answer your question, Nance is hardly agile enough to return kicks. The guy takes a while to get to top speed, but once he gets speed, has real trouble turning. Hence, his ability to be a gunner is negligible, not to metnion helping out on kickoff coverage. Blocking kicks - perhaps, although he would have competition from some of the better leapers on the roster. While I don't know too much about Aiken and some of the others, I hardly see where Nance would add anything vs. George Wilson, who is a good gunner. Wilson was highly productive in the SEC. Wilson adjusts to the ball. Wilson is a good blocker.

 

Oh, I know!!!!

 

Nance is THREE INCHES TALLER!!!

 

And TALL=GOOD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

Yeah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

 

h+w+b+40 = football skils

 

the best WR in the NFL is Tyrone Calico, especially right after Fisher benched him as a rookie for dropping one out of every three right to him and before he tore both knees.

 

the best OL in the NFL is the Bengals Stacy Andrews, who holds the record for h+w+b+40 even though he is yet to play a down in the NFL...

[MDH]

You are not seriously offering up a comparison of stats achieved in ciollege ball with stats achieved in pro ballas though they are at all comparable or at least deserve some acknowledgement that numbers achieved against college level competition and #s achieved against pro competition are really different for an indidivual except for a few vert goos players usually drafted in the first few picks of the first round rather than being signed as UDFAs like Nance.

708432[/snapback]

 

That's one of the longest run-on sentences I've seen in quite awhile.

[Pyrite Gal]

That's one of the longest run-on sentences I've seen in quite awhile.

708560[/snapback]

 

Just my typical flow of unconciousness.

[jarthur31]

I agree Nance is caught in a numbers game, but hes got a shot seeing his size, and i think the bills will keep 6 WR's. Hell, we kept 7 on the roster last year. I dont see andre davis making the team, and i think fast freddie is gone with roscoe back there returning punts.

 

I wouldnt mind seeing nance on the PS, but the problem with putting nance on the practice squad is that any team can sign him to their active roster at any time during the season. I guess it comes down to what he shows in camp.

708199[/snapback]

 

Aye, I also believe we carry 6 receivers this year. Let's hope we indeed to have an embarrassment of riches at this position.

[MadBuffaloDisease]

Again, the Bills will likely keep 7 WR's. It's an embarrassment of riches as jarthur said, and the Bills will be wishing they could keep 8 WR's.

[Mikie2times]

Ah, the 6'4" runs a 4.5 40 = football skills theory...

 

Add in a few receiving stats from the MAC and get a bust ready for him in Canton...

 

Well, to answer your question, Nance is hardly agile enough to return kicks.  The guy takes a while to get to top speed, but once he gets speed, has real trouble turning.  Hence, his ability to be a gunner is negligible, not to metnion helping out on kickoff coverage.  Blocking kicks - perhaps, although he would have competition from some of the better leapers on the roster.  While I don't know too much about Aiken and some of the others, I hardly see where Nance would add anything vs. George Wilson, who is a good gunner.  Wilson was highly productive in the SEC.  Wilson adjusts to the ball.  Wilson is a good blocker.

 

Oh, I know!!!!

 

Nance is THREE INCHES TALLER!!!

 

And TALL=GOOD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yeah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

h+w+b+40 = football skils

 

the best WR in the NFL is Tyrone Calico, especially right after Fisher benched him as a rookie for dropping one out of every three right to him and before he tore both knees.

 

the best OL in the NFL is the Bengals Stacy Andrews, who holds the record for h+w+b+40 even though he is yet to play a down in the NFL...

708557[/snapback]

 

Was waiting for the thrilling insights of scout Ladarius.

 

I got news for everybody; unfortunately Nance can't separate. Even worse is he has no skills. In fact if his only job on earth was to catch footballs thrown above the height of the average man he would fail. If you don't believe me just read the posts of wall member 6,151. Trust me, this guy is not just a fan, he knows his football. But more importantly, he knows Martin Nance.

[MadBuffaloDisease]

And again, with all the reports about all the passes Nance has been catching ("catches of the day" if you will), it's truly AMAZING that the QB's are able to place the ball PERFECTLY into his hands all the time.

 

BRAY!