Crap Throwing Monkey Posted June 14, 2006 Share Posted June 14, 2006 No, a Bear market is typically characterized as prolonged, a few years at least. If it's not sustained it is a correction. An example was the 70's, in which stocks were essentially flat for over a decade. Not a good 10 year investment. REALLY. 708033[/snapback] Uh...yeah. I do actually know what a bear market is. Better than you do, it seems. And one of the key points of the '70s was: the market recovered. Stocks go up, stocks go down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erynthered Posted June 14, 2006 Share Posted June 14, 2006 I have no idea what you are saying. 708041[/snapback] Apparently not. Christ, Finkster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finknottle Posted June 14, 2006 Author Share Posted June 14, 2006 Uh...yeah. I do actually know what a bear market is. Better than you do, it seems. And one of the key points of the '70s was: the market recovered. Stocks go up, stocks go down. 708060[/snapback] It frequently seems as if you don't. You apparently do not subscribe to considering technical indicators or in rebalancing your portfolio in anticipation of market trends. No great sin that, but your take-no-prisoners condescension towards looking at the market analytically doesn't speak well for you knowing anything about the subject. Yes, the market recovered after 10 years of doing nothing. That just means it eventually took off. It doesn't change the fact that you had an abysmal annualized return over the period, and would have been better off investing elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted June 14, 2006 Share Posted June 14, 2006 It frequently seems as if you don't. You apparently do not subscribe to considering technical indicators or in rebalancing your portfolio in anticipation of market trends. No great sin that, but your take-no-prisoners condescension towards looking at the market analytically doesn't speak well for you knowing anything about the subject. Yes, the market recovered after 10 years of doing nothing. That just means it eventually took off. It doesn't change the fact that you had an abysmal annualized return over the period, and would have been better off investing elsewhere. 708092[/snapback] If I remember correctly you were talking about changing your portfolio to do better in the "coming" bear market, not rebalancing. Those are two different things. Changing your portfolio mix due to your perceived change in the direction in the market is the reason your average investor sucks. But I think we've been here before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted June 14, 2006 Share Posted June 14, 2006 Prick Over the last 20 years, I'm up roughly 25% on my stocks. You know what? I shouldn't count on my investments, erynthered, bad. I should count on the Social Security and the Government to take care of me. Finklesnot? 708031[/snapback] Up 20%? I'd say eryntheblack, not erynthered. Get it, not erynthered, eryntheblack......oh never mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted June 14, 2006 Share Posted June 14, 2006 I read a bit of that other thread and man stuckincincy has a clever vocabulary '' gussie'' I don't know what it means but I laughed, he always comes up with some doosies As for the market it's been bumpy and my brother who has a nice chunk invested, is been prone to swearing lately.. Hopefully and probably it will swing up soon. Gussie Im gonna look it up. 708039[/snapback] That'll be Gussie Finknottle from P.G. Wodehouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wacka Posted June 14, 2006 Share Posted June 14, 2006 Is finknottle selling short? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BilltheCat Posted June 14, 2006 Share Posted June 14, 2006 When I exclude circus work, I can't imagine why one would want to market a bear. Sounds like a bunch of bull to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crap Throwing Monkey Posted June 14, 2006 Share Posted June 14, 2006 It frequently seems as if you don't. You apparently do not subscribe to considering technical indicators or in rebalancing your portfolio in anticipation of market trends. No great sin that, but your take-no-prisoners condescension towards looking at the market analytically doesn't speak well for you knowing anything about the subject. 708092[/snapback] Incorrect. My take-no-prisoners condescension isn't towards looking at the market analytically. It's simply towards you. Stocks go up. Stocks go down. How you actually manage your money when stocks go up and down determines your rate of return, not "the market", of some artificial label of "bull" or "bear". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted June 14, 2006 Share Posted June 14, 2006 As I mentioned in another thread, I've been leery about global equities this year given that the Fed (and the central banks of many other industrialized countries) is in the midst of a tightening period. As GG mentioned, combined with the housing bubble ending (if not bursting), I don't think we've seen the worst of the equity slide. I moved a significant chunk of my portfolio into a global bond fund, which can also take advantage of a falling dollar. I'll sit on the equity sidelines until the end of the year at least. I don't know why, but it always seems the worst equity declines happen in the fall. good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
X. Benedict Posted June 14, 2006 Share Posted June 14, 2006 Taste like crab. Talk like people. 708051[/snapback] You should try the lobster boys. Taste like lobster.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finknottle Posted June 14, 2006 Author Share Posted June 14, 2006 If I remember correctly you were talking about changing your portfolio to do better in the "coming" bear market, not rebalancing. Those are two different things. Changing your portfolio mix due to your perceived change in the direction in the market is the reason your average investor sucks. But I think we've been here before. 708100[/snapback] No, I am undecided about whether or not this is the beginning of a Bear market or a simple correction - that's the point of the thread. And the issue is, if you believe in a prolonged slowdown, whether to rebalance the weight of your investments away from stocks and into alternatives, from bonds to real estate, pick your poison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finknottle Posted June 14, 2006 Author Share Posted June 14, 2006 As I mentioned in another thread, I've been leery about global equities this year given that the Fed (and the central banks of many other industrialized countries) is in the midst of a tightening period. As GG mentioned, combined with the housing bubble ending (if not bursting), I don't think we've seen the worst of the equity slide. I moved a significant chunk of my portfolio into a global bond fund, which can also take advantage of a falling dollar. I'll sit on the equity sidelines until the end of the year at least. I don't know why, but it always seems the worst equity declines happen in the fall. good luck. 708213[/snapback] Wow - 30 posts before a response with content. You're breaking the theme of the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted June 14, 2006 Share Posted June 14, 2006 Wow - 30 posts before a response with content. You're breaking the theme of the thread. 708418[/snapback] Hmmm... I must be sober. Time to get a drink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted June 14, 2006 Share Posted June 14, 2006 No, I am undecided about whether or not this is the beginning of a Bear market or a simple correction - that's the point of the thread. And the issue is, if you believe in a prolonged slowdown, whether to rebalance the weight of your investments away from stocks and into alternatives, from bonds to real estate, pick your poison. 708414[/snapback] Rebalance and reallocate are two different things. If you have a 75/25 split stocks vs bonds you keep that and rebalance periodically just to maintain that mix. Regardless of what the market is doing. If the market is in a correction or downswing and you get nervous (investing on emotion) and you change your mix to 50/50 you have made a a mistake, potentially a very bad mistake. Because you don't know at what point of the down trend you reallocated. You may have sold all your stocks at a low and bought your bonds at a high. You don't know that. Keep your mix through thick or thin based on how much risk you can tolerate over time. Reallocate that mix as you get older and closer to retirement. What you're doing is investing with emotion and that is why the average investor over time averages about 3% per year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaska Darin Posted June 14, 2006 Share Posted June 14, 2006 Rebalance and reallocate are two different things. If you have a 75/25 split stocks vs bonds you keep that and rebalance periodically just to maintain that mix. Regardless of what the market is doing. If the market is in a correction or downswing and you get nervous (investing on emotion) and you change your mix to 50/50 you have made a a mistake, potentially a very bad mistake. Because you don't know at what point of the down trend you reallocated. You may have sold all your stocks at a low and bought your bonds at a high. You don't know that. Keep your mix through thick or thin based on how much risk you can tolerate over time. Reallocate that mix as you get older and closer to retirement. What you're doing is investing with emotion and that is why the average investor over time averages about 3% per year. 708422[/snapback] It really is that simple. I'm amazed at how hard people make this stuff. How many of you would go to Walmart if they advertised: "Everything marked up 40%!"? Yet that's the pervasive thinking of today's investor. The market is up, time to throw in some cash! Idiots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erynthered Posted June 14, 2006 Share Posted June 14, 2006 Hmmm...I must be sober. Time to get a drink. 708421[/snapback] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted June 14, 2006 Share Posted June 14, 2006 It really is that simple. I'm amazed at how hard people make this stuff. How many of you would go to Walmart if they advertised: "Everything marked up 40%!"? Yet that's the pervasive thinking of today's investor. The market is up, time to throw in some cash! Idiots. 708424[/snapback] The perfect example is the real estate market now. People have doubled their money over the past 3-4 years, I have to get in. Well at that rate, the house I bought for $320k four years ago will be worth $1.3 mill in another four years assuming it maintained the same return it did in the four previous years. Simple question I ask people. Do I live in a million dollar home. Hell no!! Time to sell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finknottle Posted June 14, 2006 Author Share Posted June 14, 2006 Rebalance and reallocate are two different things. If you have a 75/25 split stocks vs bonds you keep that and rebalance periodically just to maintain that mix. Regardless of what the market is doing. If the market is in a correction or downswing and you get nervous (investing on emotion) and you change your mix to 50/50 you have made a a mistake, potentially a very bad mistake. Because you don't know at what point of the down trend you reallocated. You may have sold all your stocks at a low and bought your bonds at a high. You don't know that. Keep your mix through thick or thin based on how much risk you can tolerate over time. Reallocate that mix as you get older and closer to retirement. What you're doing is investing with emotion and that is why the average investor over time averages about 3% per year. 708422[/snapback] Correct - I was sloppy. I meant reallocate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted June 14, 2006 Share Posted June 14, 2006 Correct - I was sloppy. I meant reallocate. 708464[/snapback] Either way, you still understand that reallocating to try and match what the market is going to do is not advised? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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