The deciding factor in picking the #1 QB

[Mickey]

Just this once, I'll write a post disagreeing with your take on Losman.  

 

Your first point seems to be that Holcomb achieved his higher completion percentage by always going for the short, safe pass, while Losman attempted more low percentage long bombs.  However, Holcomb averaged 6.56 yards per pass attempt in 2005, while Losman averaged just 5.88 yards per pass attempt.  For what it's worth, Nall has averaged 9.52 yards per pass attempt in limited play.

 

Secondly, you say that Holcomb was the recipient of much higher quality playcalling than was Losman.  But Mularkey has had some experience in making bad quarterbacks look good, as his work with Kordell Stewart and Maddox illustrates.  Holcomb also had a much better year under Mularkey than he averaged at Cleveland.  Perhaps Mularkey was competent with Stewart, Maddox, and Holcomb, but incompetent with Losman.

 

A different explanation is that Losman's inadequacies forced Mularkey's hand.  With Losman under center, defenses typically ganged up to stop the run.  One of the running game's main purposes is to take pressure off the passing game.  This purpose was being served under Losman--there was very little more defenses could do to dare us to pass.  With the Bills' offensive line being what it was, running the football into a pile of nine defenders would simply have been a waste of a down.

 

The second criticism of Mularkey's playcalling was that he wasn't willing to call enough short, safe passes for Losman.  Asking a quarterback to take a five or seven step drop behind a bad line, it's said, is a recipe for disaster.  But a short, safe, Holcomb-like offense only works when your quarterback is consistently accurate on short to intermediate passes.  Losman wasn't.  Mularkey knew that any Losman-engineered drive that relied on many consecutive short, safe completions would have been far more likely to stall than to produce points.  On the other hand, Losman could sometimes throw a beautiful long bomb to Evans, and score quick points that way.  This wasn't a great way to run the offense, because of the lousy line.  But Losman's limitations didn't give Mularkey any real alternative.

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I know it is not the main point of your post but I find the notion that defenses dared us to pass by loading up on the run interesting and you are not the only one to mention it in this thread.

 

I didn't really see it that way. What I saw, or thought I did anyway, was that opposing defenses knew our line was, as coach BB said, "for sh*t". Consequently, they figured they would put lots of people up close and blitz a lot because they weren't going to get burned. Our line would not hold them off long enough for the QB to find the open guy. That halted our passing game at the point of attack, where it starts, in the pocket. As for the run, having all those guys up close put them in fine position to stop the run as well. If you have a line that can hold them off, then a defense has to back people off to try and improve coverage of space in a zone and players in man coverage. That moves those people away from the line and opens up the run. At the same time, passing is harder in that there is better coverage but easier in that the pass rush is more manageable.

 

In short, putting 8 in the box was a defensive tactic used against us because it stopped both, the run and the pass. It wasn't necessarily because they didn't fear the arm of any of our QB's, that didn't matter. They didn't fear our OL and knew that if we did throw, even with thinned out coverage due to all the bodies up close, they were going to get through our line and into the QB's face before he could take advantage of the thinner coverage.

[Orton's Arm]

Mickey provided strong stats on Red zone completion rates that went ignored:

Not a bad post at all. As for the very interesting stat Mickey provided, I couldn't think of anything to add to it. A stat like that speaks for itself.

[Orton's Arm]

You guys are arguing over two different stats I think.  I pointed out earlier in the thread that HJolcomb has a higher yardage per attempt number (ypa) but JP has the higher number when it comes to yards per completion (ypc).  The shows that when JP threw, he went deeper than Holcomb on average but he didn't complete enough of them to move the ball as effectively as Holcomb did. 

It may show Losman went deeper on average. On the other hand, it may also show that Losman missed more short passes than Holcomb did, thereby inflating his yards per completion average. Probably it's some combination of the two.

[OGTEleven]

I guess we saw different things.  What I saw was a lot of roll outs because JP was supposed to be good at throwing on the run and we needed to roll out to avoid pressure.  They tried that with Drew.  Remember that Titan game with Volek where we needed the two point conversion to send it to OT on the last play of the game.  We rolled Drew out and he threw to Shaw who appeared to catch it but when he raised it in the air to celebrate it was knocked out of his hands as he lay on his back?  After a replay review they called it incomplete and we lost.

 

That freaking play was a Mularkey fave and he ran it like crazy last year with JP and it didn't work because JP wasn't throwing accurately on the run. 

 

Take the Tampa game, first three series we ran the ball with Willis on first down.  The first pass was a short one to Neufeld, incomplete.  Second pass, short one to Reed for 4 yards.  The game plan was different, I won't argue that.  They didn't roll out Holcomb for one.  Still, it was the same crappy line.  We ran the ball, or tried to and failed.  That set up bad down and distances from the get go.  It was the same with both QB's, the running game failed more often than not.

 

I think we both agree that JP needs to improve, especially accuracy.  Whatever the problem was last year is over and done with anyway.  I just think that Dick and Marv aren't going to care about some of the issues so often mentioned around here when it comes to picking a starter.  I think that if JP is outplayed, albeit clearly outplayed, in preseason, he won't start.

 

I doubt it will come down to that.  More likely it will be a murky, less than clear deal and if so, JP starts with a pretty quick hook like last year.

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IMO Losman has a much better chance of improving his accuracy than Holcomb has of improving his effectiveness.

 

Losman's fate is in his own hands. If he improves his accuracy it opens a lot of doors. Holcomb's fate is not in his hands. His weaknesses allow for other teams to plan. A somewhat weak arm and slow feet cannot really be improved. This makes it hard for me to believe he will ever be able to lead consistent long drives over a 16 games season.

 

Is Losman a gamble? Maybe/probably. Holcomb is pretty much a sure thing but not in the right direction. This isn't really a knock on him as I think he can be an asset to the team as a backup/mentor. I just don't think he is the right starter.

[CAT]

the key factors will be smarts and leadership.

[TigerJ]

I've said all along that if Holcomb wins the starting QB job, it's going to be a long season. I'm not saying that JP is better, but if JP isn't then Buffalo has no starting QB. I'm optimistic that JP is continuing to learn and that he will be more accurate this season than last. I think he had maturity issues last season, that he got excited in games andas a result his short passes were erratic. I think the long passing game is his comfort zone which is why he completed those bombs to Evans.

[Orton's Arm]

I'm not saying that JP is better, but if JP isn't then Buffalo has no starting QB.

Personally, I believe Nall has a much better chance of developing into something special than does JP.

[JAMIEBUF12]

i think jp and lee evans have that special connection and it will only get better with more time together! i seem to remember kelly s passes that were accurate but short of the 1st down marker as well..that one last year at the end of the game had everybody including the announcers scrtaching their heads at kelly.with eric moulds gone which wide receiver will lobby for kelly???not the #1 guy lee evans...go bills in"06

[Pyrite Gal]

Personally, I believe Nall has a much better chance of developing into something special than does JP.

704924[/snapback]

 

Personally yes I can see why you hope or expect this to be true, but rationally, it may be because of my inattentiveness (as I scrawl lengthy posts) or stupidity (the game is interesting because I have little certainty as what will happen next as opposed to some on this board who seem to feel thay have some certainty about what will happen next or who will be good and who sill suck), I just have not seen anyone make an effective or compelling case that the chances of our QBs suceeding is first JP, then with a comfortable gap Holcomb and having the least chance is Nall,

 

The bad news is that while none of these 3 is likely to be successful this year, there is a good probability that one of these three will be good enough to be a consistent starter.

 

Individuals have their favorite (usally for soap opera reasons that they for some reason love or hate one of these players.

 

From my stnadpoint, I'm a Bills fan first and foremost and it would be hard for me to care less which one of these men can do the job as long as one of them steps up.

 

In terms of assessing them individually. I agree that Holcomb was comfortably the most productive of the 3 last year, but I agree with the post above from Tiger that JP has shown us all he can do and while one can reasonably expect him to be a low mistake QB, he clearly is not gonna carry a team to the playoffs on his shoulders.

 

We would need an unlikely resurgence of the D to past levels of productions AND for them to develop a gamebreaking ability they did not have in our 9-7 year when a Bledsoe led O needed the D to carry him and it failed in the final game as Parjer shredded the D and they could not stop a #3 QB.

 

Further we need the ST to maintain its high level of production and they cannot suffer the same mistakes made in that Pitts game as Lindell missed a chipshot and Clements laid a PR on the carpet.

 

While Holcomb I think has shown us what he can do, JPs sorry performance last year coming after good produdction in college and good progress his rookie season which TD foolishly believed merited a starting job actually has a lot more upside and if it works it can come quickly.

 

Nall mau do it, but is simply an X factor as he languished behind Favre.

 

We'll see.

[MadBuffaloDisease]

Personally, I believe Nall has a much better chance of developing into something special than does JP.

I don't. Nall has nothing special about him. No great arm strength or mobility. And I agree that it's a red flag that the Packers spent a 1st round pick on a QB with him already on the roster.

[Nanker]

I don't.  Nall has nothing special about him.  No great arm strength or mobility.  And I agree that it's a red flag that the Packers spent a 1st round pick on a QB with him already on the roster.

704967[/snapback]

Similar to the red flag sent up when Donnaho spend a 1st, 2nd and 5th round pick on a QB with Bledsoe already on our roster, no doubt.

[fitnbills]

I agree with this in only one respect. That accuracy is important. You may be right and I may be wrong but here is how I see the accuracy problem.

 

First, Losman isn't known for being an inaccurate passer. He wasn't in college. His % may not be right at the top but that is because he doesn't go the safe route, he tries to make a play on 3rd down, he tries to go downfield. The accuracy problems last year, IMO, were about 10% due to his talent deficiencies, 40% due to the situations he was put in and 40% due to the in-over-his-head panic factor. And the last one may be under-estimated.

 

The coaching and play-calling put him in terrible situations. The blocking and penalties put him in terrible down and distance. He was running for his life. he was put in seven step drops and asked to survey the field with WRs who couldnt get open. They asked him to do too much and he wasn't experienced enough or mature enough as a QB (after only starting two years in college on a ragtag team in a floundering program). He just wasn't ready for doing what they were asking him to do regardless of how many hours he spent studying film with Sam Wyche. That led to him being nervous, jumpy, skittish and with a ton of pressure on him. And it showed. That is where almost all of the inaccuracy came from, IMO. And the game plans changed drastically when Holcomb was put in.

 

He needs to mature as a quarterback. He needs to calm down his emotions. He needs experience in the games for the game to slow down for him. Last year, he would sometimes miss guys on 10 yard outs by three yards. That is not an inaccurate quarterback, that is a quarterback that is nervous and shell shocked and unable to temper his adrenaline.

 

I expect him to be much more calm because he is a year older, he doesn't have the huge pressure on him right off the bat (that will come in the games). He is not an inaccurate passer. And he really won't have that problem with accuracy in practice anyway because the heat of the rush and the pressure of the game doesn't exist.

 

That said, Holcomb is probably still a more accurate passer to some degree. That is what he is good at. That is why he is in this league. But the (hopefully) marginal difference in certain passes that Holcomb is more accurate in with be outweighed by Losman's higher accuracy on the long ball, his running and scrambling ability, his ball handling and his youth and arm strength.

 

And I'll bet anyone here $100 that barring injury he starts opening day.

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Good Post. I agree with you. The coaching staff last year played a large roll in JP's stalled development.

[Mickey]

It may show Losman went deeper on average.  On the other hand, it may also show that Losman missed more short passes than Holcomb did, thereby inflating his yards per completion average.  Probably it's some combination of the two.

704727[/snapback]

Yeah, I agree, it likely shows both.

 

My hope and belief is that JP's accuracy will improve, especially if we stop rolling him out so much. If he can start nailing the easy ones, those legs and his arm strength might make him a pretty decent QB after all.

[fitnbills]

Mick, JP did improve his accuracy second time around (look at the games 9-16 splits) and was only pulled when he failed against NE (who wouldn't?).  By comparison, KH enjoyed a run starting at home against weaker opponents.  He also didn't wow anybody in that last game.

 

Yes, same line for the most part.  Not same play calls.

 

I think you're right, to an extent.  JP needs to be more accurate this year.  But I'll settle for the 55% he was doing second half, if he can make big plays, over Holcomb's 67% with few big plays.  And I refuse to believe JP's inaccuracy was a result of anything other than being put in a bad situation.  KH can make the most of a bad situation better than JP, by virtue of his experience, but we all know we want to strive for good situations.  KH puts a cap on those for obvious reasons.  If they are even close in camp, close enough that the decision wouldn't irk all the reasonable vets, it's JP.

704417[/snapback]

 

 

Agreed. And to piggyback what Kelly said he came from a prgram that didn't prepare him well for the nfl. In addition he only started for two years in college. Therefore he has very little experience and with MM and crew calling plays they were forcing him to make decisive decisions that only an experienced QB would make. And in my opinion that's why KH was able to look better than JL more often. I'm hopeful that with the new OC we can make headway on decisive throws and they may settle him down and simplify the game for him. He definitly has the superior skills and potential.

[Mickey]

IMO Losman has a much better chance of improving his accuracy than Holcomb has of improving his effectiveness. 

 

Losman's fate is in his own hands.  If he improves his accuracy it opens a lot of doors.  Holcomb's fate is not in his hands.  His weaknesses allow for other teams to plan.  A somewhat weak arm and slow feet cannot really be improved.  This makes it hard for me to believe he will ever be able to lead consistent long drives over a 16 games season.

 

Is Losman a gamble?  Maybe/probably.  Holcomb is pretty much a sure thing but not in the right direction.  This isn't really a knock on him as  I think he can be an asset to the team as a backup/mentor.  I just don't think he is the right starter.

704731[/snapback]

Yeah, Holcomb is dependably average at best. If JP can't be more effective than Holcomb and last year he wasn't, then JP will be selling insurance by '08. If he improves his accuracy, and I expect that he will, he will be fine. If not though, we may very well not have a better choice on the roster than Holcomb.

[#1TN Bills Fan]

Isn't it a little funny though, to say, "class is over" for JP?  Why?  Was class over for Drew Brees after two substandard years that saw him shuffling between the field and the bench?

 

And assuming the hypothetical of Nall winning the job, does it count as 'class time' for him?  What if he falters?  What if he can't avoid the sack?  Will we be screaming for a more mobile QB?

 

We've seen far too little of Nall or Losman yet to make any judgements or predictions, IMO.  Losman improved his accuracy in stint #2 and that's encouraging to me.

704373[/snapback]

I absolutely agree. Not only Drew Brees, but what about John Elway and Brett Favre? Now, I was just a little guy when they first started their careers, but if I remember correctly, Elway was just as bad in his first few years as Losman. Favre obviously showed no signs of being a hall of fame QB when he played for the Falcons since they traded him to Green Bay. Big oops. Now, by no means am I saying that Losman will be as good as these guys, but he DOES have the same playing style and the arm strength that these two hof players had. My point is that it took these guys time to reach greatness, it didn't just happen right away. I think we need to give him a full season as #1. Forget this "QB battle" crap. Would you want to lose potentially Elway material for Maddox material???

[TigerJ]

Personally, I believe Nall has a much better chance of developing into something special than does JP.

704924[/snapback]

 

Anything's possible. Nall does have an arm. So far in OTAs, at least from what little we've been hearing, Nall has been the leaast impressive of the three. He seems to be having the most problems picking up the new offence and the most problems with accuracy. He also has issues with mobility and athleticism. It's still early though. He could come around in training camp.

[Mickey]

Anything's possible.  Nall does have an arm.  So far in OTAs, at least from what little we've been hearing, Nall has been the leaast impressive of the three.  He seems to be having the most problems picking up the new offence and the most problems with accuracy.  He also has issues with mobility and athleticism.  It's still early though.  He could come around in training camp.

705086[/snapback]

That is sad to hear. If JP isn't the answer, then its back to square one at QB after two 1st round picks, a second and a fifth. Yikes. Boy, didn't we have it good to have Jimbo all those years so that there was never any question who are QB was going to be. We were able to use our personnel "capital" on other things rather than a bi-annual search for a decent signal caller.

 

I wonder what they do to test accuracy exactly. That is the one unifying trait I think that all good QB's share whether they are big, tall, strong armed, have quick feet, read well, etc, etc. They all have differences in physical abilities but what they all had in common was accuracy.

[RuntheDamnBall]

That is sad to hear.  If JP isn't the answer, then its back to square one at QB after two 1st round picks, a second and a fifth.  Yikes.  Boy, didn't we have it good to have Jimbo all those years so that there was never any question who are QB was going to be.

705095[/snapback]

I love this bit of revisionist history that's floating around these days. Kelly skipped out playing for the Bills for two seasons and got to learn in a league of pros that wasn't quite the NFL. Who knows what would have happened had he been with the struggling 2-14 Bills of 84-85? Until the USFL folded, it was not a certainty that we were going to have our franchise quarterback while we watched him in another league in Houston.

 

I love what JK did in his Bills career, but people want to drop kick Losman, a guy who WANTS TO BE HERE, off the roof for missing most of his first season to injury and having a subpar year getting jerked around by a lousy coach. In the meantime, everybody gives Jimbo a flyer for bailing on Buffalo.

[Bagel]

For what it's worth, in his 2 years as a college starter JP completed 57.4% and 59.5% of his passes -- behind a pair of awful offensive lines.