In defense of the Bills' draft

[Dan]

After some considerable contemplation of our draft, here's my take on the first round "reaches":

 

Sure we all wanted O-linemen. The O line has sucked and continues to suck and will forever suck until we get high draft picks starting at most positions. However, the D-line also sucked - sucked badly. And you can't draft all players for all positions, so you have to prioritize. Furthermore although the O-line FA pickups may not be pro bowlers, they are at least an improvement and may even be "adequate". However, the D-line was still competely lacking. Hence, you take someone on the defensive side over an offensive guy.

 

What about that reach at #8 - well, all I have to say is Coy Wire. The fact that he's been able to win a starting roster spot for years is testament to the suckiness of our DBs. Given our division rivals passing games and the new defensive scheme being installed, upgrades to the secondary were perhaps the most imperative needs on the team. Wire in the cover 2 is an unimaginable recipe for failure.

 

Consequently, we went with a DB and a D-lineman in the first round because they were the biggest needs on our team; not the only needs, but the biggest and, perhaps, most

pressing needs to any success for this team.

[John from Riverside]

I am not saying Reyes and Fowler are pro bowlers....I just think this is the way I would biuld my O Line especially when I had so many other needs....

 

Without making this defense strong again....this team is going nowhere

[apuszczalowski]

Perhaps, but optimistically this is a 3-13 team.

703235[/snapback]

Optimistically this is a 3-13 team? How does this team become worse when some of the biggest factors of them being 5-11 are removed?

 

Optimistically this team is 8-8, unless this team falls apart and is decimated with injuries, does this team go 3-13. There is no way this team is worse then what was on the field last year.

[Scraps]

Optimistically this is a 3-13 team? How does this team become worse when some of the biggest factors of them being 5-11 are removed?

 

Optimistically this team is 8-8, unless this team falls apart and is decimated with injuries, does this team go 3-13. There is no way this team is worse then what was on the field last year.

703326[/snapback]

 

Just because you remove a factor that made the team a bad team does not mean you've improved the team. How does it regress? Questionable players at 4 out of 5 offensive line positions, weaker receiving corps, weak defensive line and a secondary that is built for man up coverage, not a cover 2.

 

Of all the teams we play, the only team I feel we might be better than is the Jets. So if you think the Bills will sweep the Jets and get lucky in 1 other game, they are optomistically a 3-13 team. 1-15 is more likely.

[Sisyphean Bills]

There is no way this team is worse then what was on the field last year.

703326[/snapback]

 

Seriously, why not? (I don't think it is "optimistic," but I can easily see lots of arguments why this team did not take a dramatic step forward and hence could end up in the ditch somewhere in '06.)

 

- Levy isn't Donahoe, but that doesn't mean he's the best GM out there.

 

- Jauronimo isn't Stupid Mike, but that doesn't mean he's the best HC out there.

 

- Offensive skills players: dumped Moulds brought back Peerless Pricetag, otherwise largely the same clowns.

 

- Offensive line: a couple of new backup/wannabes brought in to replace garbage.

 

- Defensive line: so long to the occasional All-Pro FlotSam and hello to a rookie and a platoon part-timer from Indy. Same scrubs at the ends that can't pressure anyone.

 

- Linebackers: still got fuggin Posey, maybe Spikes comes back at more than 80%.

 

- Secondary: good-bye Milloy and hello rookies and special teams/stiff from the Foreskins.

 

- We get new offensive and defensive systems and hopefully the special teams continue to be excellent.

 

Not seeing the huge improvement factor in any of this.

[Rico]

Just because you remove a factor that made the team a bad team does not mean you've improved the team.  How does it regress?  Questionable players at 4 out of 5 offensive line positions, weaker receiving corps, weak defensive line and a secondary that is built for man up coverage, not a cover 2.

 

Of all the teams we play, the only team I feel we might be better than is the Jets.  So if you think the Bills will sweep the Jets and get lucky in 1 other game, they are optomistically a 3-13 team.  1-15 is more likely.

703341[/snapback]

Agreed, plus most of the other teams on our schedule seem to have improved.

 

I'm down on this season right now, particularly over:

extreme disappointment with the first 2 picks &

Marv not doing enough to set JP up for success.

 

But I know it's still way too early. Once training camp starts and the pre-season begins,

if Whitner & McCargo look like studs, and

if the OL & JP look improved, and

if both O & D schemes look like we're heading in the right direction,

then my current outlook will change.

[Orton's Arm]

LT- Adequate at best it appears

LG- OK play if Reyeas makes doable transition from RG

C- OK play of Fowler builds from good episodes to 16 game starter

RG- OK play until age nicks Villarial who is in backside of career

RT- OK play if Peters builds on talent he showed passing MW last year.

I assume the Panthers wanted to replace Reyes for a reason. As for Fowler--I admit it's tough to win a starting spot when you're playing behind a Pro Bowl caliber guy, but it wasn't like he was with his first team when this happened to him. He has a lot to prove. Also, this would have been the perfect year to draft a replacement for the aging Villarrial. You give Villarrial one more year as the starter, then let your draft pick start in 2007. I wouldn't have minded the Bills drafting two guards and a center. I also wouldn't mind a left tackle if he'd be a significant upgrade over Gandy.

 

Suppose the Bills had done the following in the draft:

 

- Trade down from #8 to #15, and take Whitner at #15.

- Use the extra draft pick from this to take an interior OL.

- Trade away Clements for a first round pick; and use that pick to take Mangold.

 

Now you've made two very solid moves to create a dominant interior OL, without giving up any of the defensive players the Bills took. What are the disadvantages to this plan?

 

- You risk losing Whitner. However, I have yet to see a mock draft which had Whitner going between picks 9 - 15. Teams are secretive about their draft plans, and I doubt a front office could do a better job of penetrating this secrecy than those preparing mock drafts.

 

- You lose Nate Clements. But the Bills may well lose him in a year, with no compensation. In any case, his replacement already appears to be on the roster.

 

Overall, the chance of having a dominant interior OL vastly outweighs the disadvantages to this plan.

[John from Riverside]

Haven't we been over the thing with Fowler and Reyes enough....

 

There teams knew they were going to command more $$ then they wanted to give and had players waiting in the wings.....

 

These were smart moves

[stuckincincy]

Haven't we been over the thing with Fowler and Reyes enough....

 

There teams knew they were going to command more $$ then they wanted to give and had players waiting in the wings.....

 

These were smart moves

703449[/snapback]

 

I think so. I hope they start, but at the least, it's a step toward building some sorely-needed bench strength.

[mead107]

going over this for the 799 th time no one knows how the picks will be till they play the game . we will have lots of time this fall to pick apart the draft .

[Ramius]

Sure we all wanted O-linemen.  The O line has sucked and continues to suck and will forever suck until we get high draft picks starting at most positions.

 

I hope you are being sarcastic. If not, I see you are one of these "the draft is only 2 rounds long" posters.

[apuszczalowski]

Suppose the Bills had done the following in the draft:

 

- Trade down from #8 to #15, and take Whitner at #15.

- Use the extra draft pick from this to take an interior OL.

- Trade away Clements for a first round pick; and use that pick to take Mangold.

 

Now you've made two very solid moves to create a dominant interior OL, without giving up any of the defensive players the Bills took.  What are the disadvantages to this plan?

 

- You risk losing Whitner.  However, I have yet to see a mock draft which had Whitner going between picks 9 - 15.  Teams are secretive about their draft plans, and I doubt a front office could do a better job of penetrating this secrecy than those preparing mock drafts.

703426[/snapback]

Suppose someone took Whitner in the 9-14 spot? then what happens, you lose the guy you believe is the best player available for your system and have to settle on second best just to get an extra pick for another guy way down the list. What if no one is interested in traduing for clements (they would rather wait til they can get him for free?

 

You may not have seen any mock drafts that show Whitner going between 9-15, but there weren't any that had him going at 8 either so that goes to show that mock drafts aren't worth the paper they are printed on.

 

You keep saying that by drafting these guys we would then have a dominant o-line, of rookies? We were supposed to have that dominant o-line when MW was drafted, and he got us nowhere except cap problems later on.

 

I'm glad atleast that this head office and coaching staff had a plan and went into the draft and followed that plan. They got who they feel they need to be successful and fit their plan. That is why they are the GM and Head Coach, and we have to buy our way into the stadium to watch them play.

[C.Biscuit97]

Haven't we been over the thing with Fowler and Reyes enough....

 

There teams knew they were going to command more $$ then they wanted to give and had players waiting in the wings.....

 

These were smart moves

703449[/snapback]

 

I think the Bills used the draft like an addition of free agency. They signed some guys in FA - Tripplet, Reyes, and Fowler- to take away some needs of the draft. By selecting guys like Whitner, McCargo, Williams, and Youboty, they filled some more pressing needs. The rest of the of the picks are projects who may or may not develop. Obviously by handling a draft this way, many people will be criticial of ignoring the draft process. Did the Bills may some mistakes? Probably. But no one can argue they didn't fill a bunch of needs and add some quality depth. And will I wanted a guy like Justice, I still like the idea of guys who have played in league and for quality teams. But all in all as someone mentioned before, the season will tell how the Bills draft was. But it's always fun to speculate.

[John from Riverside]

This is the sticking point where the people who think we should have traded and the people who thought we drafted well will never agree..

 

The "should have traded"......but we could have gotten Whitner later

 

The "we drafted well".......we dont KNOW that we could have gotten him latter....and the draft is SEVEN ROUNDS LONG

[Pyrite Gal]

Just because you remove a factor that made the team a bad team does not mean you've improved the team.  How does it regress?  Questionable players at 4 out of 5 offensive line positions, weaker receiving corps, weak defensive line and a secondary that is built for man up coverage, not a cover 2.

 

Of all the teams we play, the only team I feel we might be better than is the Jets.  So if you think the Bills will sweep the Jets and get lucky in 1 other game, they are optomistically a 3-13 team.  1-15 is more likely.

703341[/snapback]

 

Yep, you cut is certainly possible, but while one would have to be outrageously a homer (which actually anyone is well within their rights to be) to really expect the playoffs, my since is that the chances of going 1-15 and the chances of making the SB are at about the same scale.

 

Granted someone has to lose (but also someone has to win) in this leagie and prediction of DDOOOMMMM have about the same currency of predictions of victory for the Bills.

 

While i think the results may well be the same because one major factor is the same (Ralph owns the team and pays the bills and it actually is the refelection of his non-winning over-desire to find the next Jim Kelly which i think has led to his meddling and misreading the Butler situation and resulting his firing the loser Wade with time left on his contract, his being rushed by surprising departure of Butler to hire TD and give him to much authority to exercise his demons over Cowher firing him leading to a series of bad choices and bad management on his part is still the man.

 

We owe Ralph alot and the Bills would not be here or probably would be gone without him so thanks for all he has done. However, a long with this truth, Iu think there is also the truth that from his misguided attempt to find the old Jim Kelly by making a handshake deal (he had to pay a million bucks walking away money to Jimbo for reneging), and then foolishly promting allowing Butler to sign RJ and then start him, and then trade for Hobert, and then give the job to JP, etc. Ralph is still the boss and unless he can be managed into staying out of the football game by fellow golden boy Marv this could be bad.

 

However, in terms of the players and field management, i think this team is easily competitive in this league and though evening sporting a winning record will be a good achievement, worst to first is possible in this league like never before (and vice-versa) and 1-15 predictions seem to say as much about the attitude and approach of the predicter as they do about their blinding football knowledge.

 

In terms of the games themselves (the ultimate reality versus folks value assessments i look at it this way.

 

Sept. 10 @ New England 1:00pm - NE is a team going in the wrong direction (finally as both Weis and Crennel played critical (though definitely not essential and they can be replaced) roles on this team. Many accomplished players are getting older. I do not expect the Bills to have much of a chance of winning this one on the road and this is almost certainly an L, but can easily be competitive for us. A very likely L

 

Sept. 17 @ Miami 1:00pm - This a team which even last years 5-11 flawed Bills crew should have swept and if the Culpepper knee does not respond, then the Bills can even win this one so we will have to see. Saban is a good NFL HC, but as best i can tell at least 80% of HCs can win anywhere or lose anywhere (and the majority of the consistent 20 % are Rich Kotite rather than Bill Parcells). The Fish are a squad that may compete for the division championship but also I think can easily compete for the cellar depending upon what happens on the field rather than on paper. We will know a lot more as real events occur but I put this as a potential L rather than a likely or even probable L-

 

Sept. 24 NY Jets 1:00pm - I agree with those who see the Jets as a troubled team and we will be back at home in a likely must win situation where we either reverse losses in the first two game or can establish ourselves as a creditible team because of one surpirse win on the road. Either way I think this is a likely W.

 

 

Oct. 1 Minnesota 1:00pm - Again we are at home against a good but not great team. This one is close enough that the injury reports will determine alot. Momentum and what happened in the first three weeks will tell alot. Advantages we had the first three weeks as opponents will not have much film or our tendencies yet will begin to dissapate. Still, all things being equal, if jauron targets this game as one he can really help win with good gameplanning and playcalling to take advantage of teams just learning our O and D tendencies we should be able to beat a MN team which has good points but is not dominating as we are at home/

 

I'm comfortable marking this one down as a possible W.

 

Oct. 8 @ Chicago 1:00pm - My default is to feel while homefield is not determinative it gives the home team and advanatage. If Jauron can fire his team up with a special fire to beat the team that fired him maybe we can do somethings here, but this is a likelyloss to a 13-3 team. However, their O really sucked last year and if they do not find an O footing or their D has injury issues, this may change. I'd say this is a probable loss.

 

Oct. 15 @ Detroit 1:00pm Again Detroit starts with a field advantage. However, their history of failure is longer than even ours. Jauron should know this team well and I think this one is a likely toss-up unless someone can demonstrate why they think Detroit is so good.

 

Oct. 22 New England 1:00pm - This will tell us a lot whether to be hopeful for the second season or to hunker down. It amazes me how anyone who remembers way back to NE losing to ua 31-0 at home in the first game and then beating the crap out of us 0-31 in their house can be so certain of the outcome of both games at this point. NE is going in the wrong direction right now, but it would be a mistake tp cpmclude they are going into a total meltdown. However, again it would be a mistake to peg this one as a certain loss, a likwly or even probabable loss at this point. In fact given the usual slight homefield advantage and what by mid-season is likely to stll be a tight division race.

 

I think pessimism is the main driver for anyone sealing this one up as a loss (the Bills woulda/coulda/shoulda beat the Pats on the night game last year they threw away. I peg this one at least as a possible W for the Bills.

 

Oct. 29 Bye I gurantee we will not lose this week

 

Nov. 5 Green Bay 1:00pm - Again a home game against a bad team and a possible win.

 

Nov. 12 @ Indianapolis 1:00pm A probable loss against a good team on the road.

 

Nov. 19 @ Houston 1:00pm - A possible win against a bad team on the road.

 

Nov. 26 Jacksonville 1:00pm - It will depend a lot on the momentum of how the season is going for these two teams. However, I do not fear at all playing this team at home.

 

Dec. 3 San Diego 1:00pm - A tough game against this almost playoff team at home. However, traveling across country they better eat their cheeseburgers as I suspct even a bad team playing for the second week in a row at home is going to end up slight favorites against up and down Chargers at home particularly if this is in anyway a tough travel streatch for them (I did not check.

 

Dec. 10 @ NY Jets 1:00pm - Our best shot at a road victory

 

Dec. 17 Miami 1:00pm - We usually squish the fish at home and I think we will be favored against this psudo juggernaut of a team which has a history of huge el foldos in full bloom at this time.

 

Dec. 24 Tennessee 1:00pm - Again a homegame against a team which has been pretty bad the last few seasons and likely will be again even if they catch rooie lightening in a bottle.

 

Dec. 31 @ Baltimore 1:00pm - The outcome likely will be dictated by what likely wull be a meaningless game for both teams means for the individuals. Whomever is thinking most about what to wear to the New Year's party that night likely gets their head handed to them.

 

Overall, I think the Bills will flirt with .500 and can finish significantly below that with bad injuiry breaks and bounces by this oddly shaped ball or can finish even comfortably aboce .500 (but likely still miss the playoffs) if momentum and other issues break correctly.

 

Particularly with this newly coached and managed team I think it is still way too early to make even remotely credible predicitions of records. What i think can be credibly done is to predict which games will likely be competitive.

 

At NE, at Chi and at Indy are the only games I am pretty certain we will lose at this point. We will also likely lose a majority of the 5 other away games, hpwver, when facing teams like the Jets, Houston and Detroit, i will be shocked if are not mostly given one of these games by a bad team and can easily get two Ws here depending upon the inury reports, the bouncing ball or Phil Luckett blowing the call on a coin flip.

 

I really doubt we go 8-0 at home but again none of our opponents scare me and does anyone want to make a case any of them are unbeatable on the road.

 

Anyone who has such great confidence in all of our opponents even if we are a bad team is looking at this with their pessimistic eyes and not with a football view.

 

The NFL stands for National Football Lotto and the team owners and league recognize that they can make more money and sell commericials at the highest price throughout the game if the Any Given Sunday rule playsout.

[Orton's Arm]

You keep saying that by drafting these guys we would then have a dominant o-line, of rookies?

There are three ways to build an offensive line: free agency, early draft picks, and late draft picks. Most of TD's starting offensive linemen were obtained through free agency, and look how that's worked out. Sure, if you can add a guy like LeCharles Bentley through free agency, you should do it. But typically, the offensive linemen who hit free agency are not wanted very badly by their original teams. Usually there's a reason why. I've yet to see a case where an offensive line built primarily through free agency was dominant for any length of time.

 

That leaves the draft. During the period from 1990 - 2004, the Bills went 0-15 with their second-day offensive line picks. Success, in this case, means a player who a) started at least four years for the Bills, and b) was at least average for a starter. I hope for more from our more recent second-day picks, but I'm not expecting it.

 

That leaves first-day draft picks. As Lori and others have pointed out, teams like Pittsburgh and Seattle built their dominant offensive lines largely on the draft's first day. Not every first-day offensive line pick will be a success, as shown by the Mike Williams pick. But other positions produce busts also; usually at a higher rate than the offensive line. It's been four years since this team used a first day pick on an offensive lineman; and I for one am less than pleased by this neglect.

[Ozymandius]

Haven't we been over the thing with Fowler and Reyes enough....

 

There teams knew they were going to command more $$ then they wanted to give and had players waiting in the wings.....

 

These were smart moves

703449[/snapback]

 

Hmmm, so this is now gospel instead of wishful thinking.... I see... BTW, isn't Reyes making the minimum?

[apuszczalowski]

There are three ways to build an offensive line: free agency, early draft picks, and late draft picks.  Most of TD's starting offensive linemen were obtained through free agency, and look how that's worked out.  Sure, if you can add a guy like LeCharles Bentley through free agency, you should do it.  But typically, the offensive linemen who hit free agency are not wanted very badly by their original teams.  Usually there's a reason why.  I've yet to see a case where an offensive line built primarily through free agency was dominant for any length of time.

 

That leaves the draft.  During the period from 1990 - 2004, the Bills went 0-15 with their second-day offensive line picks.  Success, in this case, means a player who a) started at least four years for the Bills, and b) was at least average for a starter.  I hope for more from our more recent second-day picks, but I'm not expecting it. 

 

That leaves first-day draft picks.  As Lori and others have pointed out, teams like Pittsburgh and Seattle built their dominant offensive lines largely on the draft's first day.  Not every first-day offensive line pick will be a success, as shown by the Mike Williams pick.  But other positions produce busts also; usually at a higher rate than the offensive line.  It's been four years since this team used a first day pick on an offensive lineman; and I for one am less than pleased by this neglect.

703511[/snapback]

Actually there is another way of building a great offensive line, and that is getting the best players available by any means, i.e. using 1st and 2nd day picks and FA. You also don't have to have an all-pro defence to be the Super Bowl champs, just a good o-line that does its job of keeping defender out of the QB's face and opening holes for the RB. Will the Bills have the greatest offensive line of all time next year? no probably not. Will the offensive line be good enough to keep from costing the team games and help out JP? Maybe, no one will know until they actually get to play as a team against another team

[Nanker]

Burning Questions:

 

• Where are we ever going to replace Eric Moulds' incredible HOF alarming 816 Yards of 2005 Offense?

• Surely, Willis couldn't top his 1,247 yards gained in 2005 and the 178 yards receiving, could he?

• Why, Damon Shelton gained ZERO yards running and 98 full yards receiving in 2005 (that's darned near the complete length of the football field!). I can't see him doing any better than that this year- can you?

• Josh Reed gained an AWESOME 449 yards receiving on 32 - count 'em t-h-i-r-t-y-T-W-O catches. The guy's clearly peaked in my view. He'll be gone by June 1st. What?

• Ryan Neufeld gained 9 yards on his one reception of 2005. That's more than any TE in the League could ever hope of gaining - unless of course your name is Tim Euhaus and you put up gaudy numbers like he did in 2005 - 3 catches fo SEVENTEEN yards!

• We certainly shouldn't expect any more from Sam Aiken. Hell, his 4 catches for 57 yards was a MONSTER year!

• Of course Joe Burns tacked up NO yards on NO carries for 2005, but the one catch he did manage to snag went for 19 yards - and a TouchDown! "Talkin' Proud! Talkin' Proud!"

• Now when you're talkin about PRODUCTION in 2005 - Lee Evans Sophmore season was off-the-charts with 48 catches for an un-Godly 743 yards. I defy anyone to think he could gain even a single yard more - EVER!

• Kevin Everett biggest catch of the year was the short bus to the whirlpool. He gained 0 yards on 0 catches in the 0 games he played in last year. That's a PERFECT season, and no one could expect any more from him.

• Lionel Gates - another guy with a PERFECT season gaining 0 yards on 0 carries in the 0 games he played in last year.

• Ditto Jon Goldsberry.

• But Roscoe Parrish! Now yer talkin'! Where in the name of all creation will we ever find a way to expect we'll get more than his 148 yards that he produced in all of 2005? I ask you... WHERE?

• Then again we have the star of this offensive juggernaut AKA as the 2005 Buffalo Bills - Shaud Williams. He gained 161 yards rushing AND 118 yards receiving! Be still my heart! It would be unjust to think anyone could do better.

 

 

I can see why everyone's so worried about improving the offense. It's not like we changed anything like the coaching and game planning, so why could we possibly get these professional athletes to produce more than they did in 2005? It's just not fair I tell ya. It's just not fair.

[Kelly the Dog]

The problem of the Draft was that Whitner, while a very good player, was taken way too high, causing the Bills to "trade up" for McCargo, who is vastly inferior to Bunkley.  The reach for Whitner and the "trade up" for McCargo looks like the second mistake was to cover for the first.  Rebuilding teams should tend to trade down, not trade up for a Third Round caliber (at best) player in Round 1...

703081[/snapback]

The Bills actually came right out and said that they knew, or planned barring a wild trade offer, that they were going after a safety and a DT with their first two picks, and knew they wanted to trade up back into the first round to get the second guy. After discussing it with their coaches and scouts, they decided that a Whitner/McCargo combination was better than a Bunkley/third best SS combination since Huff and Whitner would surely be gone by #21 or so. It's a reasonable theory, and was planned beforehand, and which negates your theory. It could turn out to be a terrible draft, a mediocre one, or a very good to great one. No one on earth knows. But it was planned, and it wasn't a panic move.