PFW 2006 Preview Issue

[Rico]

As I wait for the Pistons to make a move tonight, here are a few notes from this mag that I picked up earlier today. Ther late great Joel Buchsbaum may be gone, but this is still far & away my favorite preview issue out there.

 

Bills predicted record: 5-11, 3rd in the AFC East

Summary: Bills won't take a step forwards until they find a dependable starting QB.... team in transition... if they don't solve their QB quandary, they could be looking at another top-10 pick next year.

 

Unit rankings:

QB: D

RB: B

WR+TE: C

OL: D

DL: D

LB: B+

DB: B

ST: A

 

Offensive MVP: Willis

Defensive MVP: Schobel

Breakthrough Player: Lee Evans

Key position battle: 3-way fight at QB

 

Super Bowl: Panthers over Colts

 

Pre-season Power Rankings:

Bills are 30 (ahead of Jets and Niners)

 

Bills Players Rated by Position Overall in League:

Top 50 Overall: no Bills

Top 28 QB's: no Bills(Bledsoe #17)

Top 30 RB's: Willis #15

Top 20 TE's: no Bills

Top 33 WR's: no Bills (Moulds #30)

Top 20 C's: no Bills

Top 27 OG's: Villarial #17

Top 28 OT's: no Bills (Jennings #19)

Top 30 DE's: Schobel #19

Top 24 DTs: no Bills (Phat Pat #13)

Top 23 I/MLB's: Fletcher #15

Top 24 OLBs: TKO #4

Top 25 CB's: Nate #22, McGee #24 (Lil' Antoine #10)

Top 20 S's: no Bills

They didn't rank K's or P's this year.

[Acantha]

Unit rankings:

QB: D

RB: B

WR+TE: C

OL: D

DL: D

LB: B+

DB: B

ST: A

702480[/snapback]

 

I think that's pretty fair for pre-training camp grades. Though I would grade DL a C.

 

Also, I think they should seperate WR and TE. I think rating it that way puts too much focus on TE's being receiving threats. I know that's what most want to focus on, but for teams like the Bills who have a blocking TE, it is somewhat unfair. But, looking at it like that, I would agree with the overall score.

[Mikie2times]

As I wait for the Pistons to make a move tonight, here are a few notes from this mag that I picked up earlier today. Ther late great Joel Buchsbaum may be gone, but this is still far & away my favorite preview issue out there.

 

Bills predicted record: 5-11, 3rd in the AFC East

Summary: Bills won't take a step forwards until they find a dependable starting QB.... team in transition... if they don't solve their QB quandary, they could be looking at another top-10 pick next year.

 

Unit rankings:

QB: D

RB: B

WR+TE: C

OL: D

DL: D

LB: B+

DB: B

ST: A

 

Offensive MVP: Willis

Defensive MVP: Schobel

Breakthrough Player: Lee Evans

Key position battle: 3-way fight at QB

 

Super Bowl: Panthers over Colts

 

Pre-season Power Rankings:

Bills are 30 (ahead of Jets and Niners)

 

Bills Players Rated by Position Overall in League:

Top 50 Overall: no Bills

Top 28 QB's: no Bills(Bledsoe #17)

Top 30 RB's: Willis #15

Top 20 TE's: no Bills

Top 33 WR's: no Bills (Moulds #30)

Top 20 C's: no Bills

Top 27 OG's: Villarial #17

Top 28 OT's: no Bills (Jennings #19)

Top 30 DE's: Schobel #19

Top 24 DTs: no Bills (Phat Pat #13)

Top 23 I/MLB's: Fletcher #15

Top 24 OLBs: TKO #4

Top 25 CB's: Nate #22, McGee #24 (Lil' Antoine #10)

Top 20 S's: no Bills

They didn't rank K's or P's this year.

702480[/snapback]

 

Pistons gone

 

As for the ratings they seem fair. The only thing I kind of disagree with is a section in the summary. Not that I expect the Bills to get great QB play but I feel our problems at that position in 06 will be more to do with WR and OL being in transition then a QB simply not emerging. The improvement the QB's make will probably just be canceled out by lack of experience and quality in at other offensive positions. Hopefully fans stay patient if that goes down.

 

Just my .02

[Rico]

I think that's pretty fair for pre-training camp grades.  Though I would grade DL a C.

 

Also, I think they should seperate WR and TE.  I think rating it that way puts too much focus on TE's being receiving threats.  I know that's what most want to focus on, but for teams like the Bills who have a blocking TE, it is somewhat unfair.  But, looking at it like that, I would agree with the overall score.

702529[/snapback]

Here's their DL comments:

Schobel: team's top pass rusher... not one of the league's top sack artists, but he consistently gets the job done, w/ career best 12 sacks in 05... durable, high motor, powers up vs the run but will struggle against bigger blockers.

 

Kelsay: solid starter, didn't have expected breakout season due to elbow injury that bothered him most of lasy year.

 

Denney: good b/u, stout against run, good S/T.

 

Mark Word: Bills hope he'll be situational pass-rusher... natural pass-rush skills, needs to prove he can hold up against the run.

 

Tripplett: good fit for new scheme... moves well & can get upfield, but very inconsistent & a little undersized... overshadowed in Indy, has a chance to make a name for himself in Buffalo.

 

McCargo: rising 3-tech tackle, drawn comparisons to Warren Sapp... very quick with great explosiveness, should contribute immediately in rotation.

 

Anderson: projected starter next to Tripplett... more of a try-hard plugger who isn't real quick or explosive & would be better as a back-up.

 

Sape: one-gap guy who can get upfield but struggles to anchor & can get blown off the ball.

 

Kyle Williams: lacks athleticism but is a great competitor and should be a good fit for this D.

 

 

As written. looks more like a C grade to me also than a D... I think (like me) they're down on the interior.

 

Pistons gone 

702533[/snapback]

Pat Riley >>>>>>>>>>>> Friggin' Flip Saunders.

[Mikie2times]

Pat Riley >>>>>>>>>>>> Friggin' Flip Saunders.

702539[/snapback]

 

Not enough alligator teeth in the world to capture that advantage.

[Rico]

As for the ratings they seem fair.  The only thing I kind of disagree with is a section in the summary. Not that I expect the Bills to get great QB play but I feel our problems at that position in 06 will be more to do with WR and OL being in transition then a QB simply not emerging.  The improvement the QB's make will probably just be canceled out by lack of experience and quality in at other offensive positions. Hopefully fans stay patient if that goes down. 

 

Just my .02

702533[/snapback]

They are projecting Holcomb to be the starter.

 

Holcomb: steady player who settled down the team after JP's struggles... not very mobile & doesn't have a strong arm but is smart & a good short-to-intermediate passer... durability issues due to concussions in the past... ideally a trusted back-up.

 

JP: great athletic ability, strong arm for the deep ball..struggled managing the game & recognizing the blitz, and his odd personality & thin skin don't lead to a leadership role... previous staff lost confidence in him, may need a change of scenery in a QB-friendly environment to develop into anything more than a back-up.

 

Nall: 4-years as b/u in GB, a franchise that has a history of producing starting QBs... good size & athletic ability with an adequate arm... Bills hope he'll flourish when given the opportunity to start, but scouts say those hopes are too high.

[MadBuffaloDisease]

Does ANYONE realize that Holcomb basically won TWO games last year, that the Bungles game was won pretty much by McGee alone, and that the Jets game is something that SHOULD have put the final nail in the "Holcomb for starter coffin?"

[Acantha]

Does ANYONE realize that Holcomb basically won TWO games last year, that the Bungles game was won pretty much by McGee alone, and that the Jets game is something that SHOULD have put the final nail in the "Holcomb for starter coffin?"

702555[/snapback]

More than that, I just can't see Holcomb starting with the WR's they have brought in. You just can't have a weak armed QB starting when you have the fastes group of WR's in the leage. The deep ball MUST be a constant threat if this offense is going to have a chance.

[Rico]

Does ANYONE realize that Holcomb basically won TWO games last year, that the Bungles game was won pretty much by McGee alone, and that the Jets game is something that SHOULD have put the final nail in the "Holcomb for starter coffin?"

702555[/snapback]

I don't think it matters... for better or worse, Marv has said that whoever performs the best will start. If Holcomb looks better than JP in camp & pre-season, I fully expect him to start Week 1 against the Pats.

 

Listening to post MM/TD era interviews with TKO, Fletch, etc, it's pretty clear that the vets don't want to see anyone handed a job again (especially JP)... and it's clear they've let DJ and Marv know it.... and it seems that DJ & Marv agree.

[MadBuffaloDisease]

I agree with not handing anyone a job. But if this is a rebuilding process, which it seems to be, then going with a younger guy, even if it's Nall, makes WAY more sense than sticking with Holcomb. And if it's a significant difference, they should go in another direction entirely.

[Rico]

I agree with not handing anyone a job.  But if this is a rebuilding process, which it seems to be, then going with a younger guy, even if it's Nall, makes WAY more sense than sticking with Holcomb.  And if it's a significant difference, they should go in another direction entirely.

702579[/snapback]

I agree 100%, and I hope you're right, I sure don't want to see KH starting. I think if it is a significant difference (in KH's favor), they will go in an entirely different direction, but not until 2007 unless KH produces wins. Marv has no real vested interest in any of the 3 (not even Nall with that contract), and I think he'll dump any or all of them next year if they don't look good/show upside. This year, though, I think the best one plays regardless, he may be rebuilding but he also wants wins.

[Kelly the Dog]

I don't think it matters... for better or worse, Marv has said that whoever performs the best will start. If Holcomb looks better than JP in camp & pre-season, I fully expect him to start Week 1 against the Pats.

 

Listening to post MM/TD era interviews with TKO, Fletch, etc, it's pretty clear that the vets don't want to see anyone handed a job again (especially JP)... and it's clear they've let DJ and Marv know it.... and it seems that DJ & Marv agree.

702559[/snapback]

There is a lot more to QBing than just throwing intermediate passes. Losman could easily win the starting job in practice by not being as efficient throwing 10 yard passes and dump offs but being far more efficient with the long ball, with ball handling, with running, with roll outs, with deep outs. Overall, he could easily impress the coaches more in practice. People tend to think in black and white, as if one QB is going to look better in all phases. But it's very likely than Holcomb will look best in 2-3 things, Losman will look best in 2-3 things and Nall may even look best in 2-3 things. Then you go with Losman.

[IDBillzFan]

There is a lot more to QBing than just throwing intermediate passes. Losman could easily win the starting job in practice by not being as efficient throwing 10 yard passes and dump offs but being far more efficient with the long ball, with ball handling, with running, with roll outs, with deep outs. Overall, he could easily impress the coaches more in practice. People tend to think in black and white, as if one QB is going to look better in all phases. But it's very likely than Holcomb will look best in 2-3 things, Losman will look best in 2-3 things and Nall may even look best in 2-3 things. Then you go with Losman.

702634[/snapback]

Plus, Holcomb and Losman are two different quarterbacks so while I think the team is being honest about the competition, are you not going to ultimately devise your offensive scheme around one or the other?

 

One thing I enjoyed watching from Losman was his ability to throw while rolling out. Holcomb has no ability to do such a thing, and as a result, Losman gives you more offensive options. The question becomes...do those options become embraced by the new staff?

 

I don't know. In fact, I'm not even sure I should be responding here at all.

[Arkady Renko]

Does ANYONE realize that Holcomb basically won TWO games last year, that the Bungles game was won pretty much by McGee alone, and that the Jets game is something that SHOULD have put the final nail in the "Holcomb for starter coffin?"

702555[/snapback]

 

You can put all sort of exceptions you want on when the Bills won when he was the QB and when they lost, but using that logic, you can say that every game that Holcomb started was not by him. It is a team game afterall.

 

Holcomb didn't win X game, that was b/c his receivers caught the ball. Holcomb didn't win Y game b/c the defense didn't let the other team score 45 points.

 

I can understand wanting JP to start for various reasons, but I am not sure I understand the animosity towards KH. I don't think he has ever complained or whined about his situation. He hasn't tried to start a QB controversy outside of playing well at times when JP struggled. He has the potential to be a third string QB after being the best QB on the team last season, but I don't think he has been going to the media about it.

 

But I suppose it is hard not to get personally invested with the horse we each have picked in the fight and view the others as almost enemies.

[Kelly the Dog]

You can put all sort of exceptions you want on when the Bills won when he was the QB and when they lost, but using that logic, you can say that every game that Holcomb started was not by him. It is a team game afterall.

 

Holcomb didn't win X game, that was b/c his receivers caught the ball. Holcomb didn't win Y game b/c the defense didn't let the other team score 45 points.

 

I can understand wanting JP to start for various reasons, but I am not sure I understand the animosity towards KH. I don't think he has ever complained or whined about his situation. He hasn't tried to start a QB controversy outside of playing well at times when JP struggled. He has the potential to be a third string QB after being the best QB on the team last season, but I don't think he has been going to the media about it.

 

But I suppose it is hard not to get personally invested with the horse we each have picked in the fight and view the others as almost enemies.

702639[/snapback]

I haven't seen any animosity toward Holcomb as a person or a teammate anywhere. Have you? Some people, probably the majority here, don't want to see him starting because he has a ceiling on his play and talent and age, that's it. They don't think he is short or long term starter material. And that's fairly hard to argue with when when he was a career-back-up, we traded for him to be the back-up, paid him back-up money, announced he was brought here to be the back-up, he said he was fine being the back-up and then he played like a back-up.

[Rico]

There is a lot more to QBing than just throwing intermediate passes. Losman could easily win the starting job in practice by not being as efficient throwing 10 yard passes and dump offs but being far more efficient with the long ball, with ball handling, with running, with roll outs, with deep outs. Overall, he could easily impress the coaches more in practice. People tend to think in black and white, as if one QB is going to look better in all phases. But it's very likely than Holcomb will look best in 2-3 things, Losman will look best in 2-3 things and Nall may even look best in 2-3 things. Then you go with Losman.

702634[/snapback]

I sure hope so, I'm a JP fan... I think his ball-handling is great, & I love what he can bring us with roll-outs and running...but if he doesn't show improvement from what we saw last year in all phases of throwing, including long ball & deep out accuracy + poise under pressure, he'll have a hard time seeing the field IMO. Like I said, I'm pulling for him.

[CosmicBills]

I said it before and I'll say it again. Everything Marv and DJ are saying about it being an "open competition" is merely politics. The organization has far too much invested in JP for him not to be the starter (yes, even though Marv and DJ weren't around when they picked him).

 

Sure, it's a "competition" and they won't make an announcment until well into training camp. But the only way JP doesn't line up as the starter on openning day is if he royally screws up in preseason or gets injured. '

 

The vets know it. The coaches know it. The front office knows it. And the players know it.

 

Like, KTFBD says, there is more than just one way to judge QBing and I would throw in youth, potential and organizational investment into that judgment -- the Bills certainly will.

[BADOLBILZ]

Listening to post MM/TD era interviews with TKO, Fletch, etc, it's pretty clear that the vets don't want to see anyone handed a job again (especially JP)... and it's clear they've let DJ and Marv know it....

702559[/snapback]

 

By blowing off OTA's?

Parcells on voluntary OTA's......"They're only voluntary if you don't want to win".

 

To me, what the vets on this team are making clear is just how optimistic they are about their chances of winning with Dick Jauron in charge. They don't "Billieve" in Dick, otherwise, they would be there. The funny part is Levy and Jauron thought they weeded out the potential trouble makers, when all they did IMO was discourage the ranks.

[Rico]

I said it before and I'll say it again. Everything Marv and DJ are saying about it being an "open competition" is merely politics. The organization has far too much invested in JP for him not to be the starter (yes, even though Marv and DJ weren't around when they picked him).

702670[/snapback]

I would buy this if they made more of a concentrated effort this off-season to set JP up for success. If it was determined that this is going to be a rebuilding year anyways, I would've let the defense continue to be a sieve (which it may still end up being) and first dedicated a lot more resources (ie. draft & FA's) to the offense (particularly the OL) to help my young franchise QB develop. I think these off-season actions indicate that DJ & Marv don't really care who ends up winning the QB position, it's not a high priority for JP to be the winner... if none of these 3 are the answer, they'll look elsewhere next year.

[Rico]

By blowing off OTA's?

Parcells on voluntary OTA's......"They're only voluntary if you don't want to win".

 

To me, what the vets on this team are making clear is just how optimistic they are about their chances of winning with Dick Jauron in charge.  They don't "Billieve" in Dick, otherwise, they would be there.  The funny part is Levy and Jauron thought they weeded out the potential trouble makers, when all they did IMO was discourage the ranks.

702675[/snapback]

Well, I don't know if weeding out the potential trouble makers is why veteran OTA participation is weak (it may be), but I agree with the rest of your take.