Who will you take with your 1st pick?

[Oneonta Buffalo Fan]

for anyone reading this thread......does the number 1 pick ever finish the season ranked #1 in points in your league.

 

i would have to guess maybe Marshall Faulk did it once, and maybe Tomlinson did it once....but even with those two, I am not certain.  

 

in the leauge i am in there is no question Larry Johnson is going to be the first player selected.  but i don't think it gives the team that selects him an overwhelming edge then the teams that select Tomlinson or Alexander.

711169[/snapback]

 

most of the time now. But I never had the the #1 pick overall first yet in my first 2 years now.

[Oneonta Buffalo Fan]

Here's a link at the top 50 guys you should look wo pick this year.

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/story/5311122

[The Avenger]

Biggest mistake about making your first pick is not understanding the scoring system in your league.

 

In most systems, RBs are at a premium, so a Larry Johnson or Shaun Alexander would be a likely first overall pick.

 

If your league awards as many points for a passing TD than an rushing or receiving TD then the case could be made for a guy like Peyton at #1.

 

If you get points per recption as well as yardage and TDs, a go-to receiver like Chad Johnson or TO or Steve Smith could also be a first pick. Points for receptions also bump up RBs who catch lots of passes out of the backfield and increase the value of guys like LT.

 

Add to all of this that most serious players use a value based drafting system where they look seriously at how much better a guy is than the next rated guy at the same position (how much better is Peyton than Brady as compared to how much Shockey is better than Crumpler).

 

In short, there is no way to answer who will be number #1 unless you understand the scoring, roster/lineup requirements and how experienced your fellow owners are.

[Oneonta Buffalo Fan]

Biggest mistake about making your first pick is not understanding the scoring system in your league.

 

In most systems, RBs are at a premium, so a Larry Johnson or Shaun Alexander would be a likely first overall pick.

 

If your league awards as many points for a passing TD than an rushing or receiving TD then the case could be made for a guy like Peyton at #1.

 

If you get points per recption as well as yardage and TDs, a go-to receiver like Chad Johnson or TO or Steve Smith could also be a first pick. Points for receptions also bump up RBs who catch lots of passes out of the backfield and increase the value of guys like LT.

 

Add to all of this that most serious players use a value based drafting system where they look seriously at how much better a guy is than the next rated guy at the same position (how much better is Peyton than Brady as compared to how much Shockey is better than Crumpler).

 

In short, there is no way to answer who will be number #1 unless you understand the scoring, roster/lineup requirements and how experienced your fellow owners are.

719503[/snapback]

 

The way I heard to draft in a league is to take Rbs with your first 2 picks. Should I really do that?

[MartyBall4Buffalo]

The way I heard to draft in a league is to take Rbs with your first 2 picks.  Should I really do that?

727563[/snapback]

 

 

The way I look at it. The safer way to draft is to take your rb's and wr's first all qb's generaly tend to group together unless you're taking a fantasy machine like manning, otherwise yes it's better to take rb's with your 1st 2 picks.

[inkman]

The way I heard to draft in a league is to take Rbs with your first 2 picks.  Should I really do that?

727563[/snapback]

 

 

Even after everyone has drafted a QB and WR their will still be players at those positions that put up similar #'s. Starting RB's are the driving force of most fantasy leagues and having 3 bonafide # 1 backs is a must. Too many times I have gone into a season thinking I was all set at RB, and with one injury and one depth chart change I was starting fullbacks and third down backs.

[stinky finger]

i guess alexander. its what you get for being in a division with the rams, cards, and 9ers. no way he does not have another great year.

706833[/snapback]

Exactly. This guy is money. Great offense. Lousy division. MANY oppurtunties. He's as sure a thing in fantasy as you get.

[stinky finger]

Alexander won't be good this year.  They got o-line problems (sort of) like the Bills.

706849[/snapback]

Losing Hutch is a blow to the line, granted, but nothing else changes. He's studly.

[stinky finger]

I think most of the top RB's take a "bit" of a hit this year.  Alexander because of a slight decline in OL, LT because of Philip Rivers and because I think defenses started to figure him out torwards the end of the year, Edgerin James because....well that's obvious.  I think Larry Johnson is the only one who doesn't have something going against him this year.  And I would only rank RB's in my to 3 or 4.  Only Manning in the top 5 other than RB's.

 

I guess as it stand right now, LJ is my choice if given the number 1 pick, with Alexander a close second.  James and Tomlinson will probably have good years though, so I wouldn't make an argument against them if they were picked first.

 

Another question is which rookie would you pick first, and about where.  Bush would be a good gamble early (probably first round) without Duece on the team.  With him, I don't know.  Vincy Young?  I think he's going to be a bust for his draft position, but he'll probably get some fantasy points based on scrambling.  It's too far away to know how to rank these guys yet.  If I had to guess now, I think I would be willing to take Vernon Davis earliest....given his talent and the fact that he is playing with a young QB likely to need an outlet.  Though I'd bet he's treated more as a WR, sees a lot of CB's in coverage.

706864[/snapback]

 

You can forget about any rookie QB. Leinhart might be the only one to draft late. Only because Warner has issues staying healthy.

[JimBob2232]

The way I heard to draft in a league is to take Rbs with your first 2 picks.  Should I really do that?

727563[/snapback]

 

Yes, yes and YES.

 

Reason:

Most leagues start 2 RBs. If you have a 12 team league, that is 24 RBs. There are only 32 teams in the NFL. That means there are only 8 starting Running backs in the league that will not start for one of the fantasy football teams in your league.

 

Now consider, Green Bay has Green/Gado/Whoeverelse. Dont want to touch them

Tennesse: Henry/Jones/White

San Fran:Gore/Barlow

New Orleans:Bush/McCallister

Detroit: Kevin Jones=Scary

Dallas: Julius Jones/Barber III

Minnesota: Really going with Chester Taylor?

Baltimore: Jamal Lewis? Or Mike Anderson?

Denver: Bell or Dayne?

Jacksonville: Fred Taylor = Scary.

Indianapolis: Addai or Rhodes

Jets: Can Martin Stay healthy?

New England: Can Dillon Stay Healthy?

Pittsburgh: Haynes or Parker?

 

So, thats 14 teams that have questionable starters. Leaving 18 sure thing starters. Not getting 2 RBs early ensures you will be stuck trying to make due with Ron Dayne or Willie Parker as your other RB, and hoping to get lucky.

 

RB/RB/RB.

 

The only other option this year....contrary to what I just told you. You MIGHT be able to go WR/WR/RB/RB/RB if you are late in the first round. If you can get CJ and Steve Smith and then follow up with 5-6 guys on the above list later in the draft, you might be okay.

[stinky finger]

Yes, yes and YES.

 

Reason:

Most leagues start 2 RBs.  If you have a 12 team league, that is 24 RBs.  There are only 32 teams in the NFL.  That means there are only 8 starting Running backs in the league that will not start for one of the fantasy football teams in your league.

 

Now consider, Green Bay has Green/Gado/Whoeverelse.  Dont want to touch them

Tennesse: Henry/Jones/White

San Fran:Gore/Barlow

New Orleans:Bush/McCallister

Detroit: Kevin Jones=Scary

Dallas: Julius Jones/Barber III

Minnesota: Really going with Chester Taylor?

Baltimore: Jamal Lewis?  Or Mike Anderson?

Denver: Bell or Dayne?

Jacksonville: Fred Taylor = Scary.

Indianapolis: Addai or Rhodes

Jets: Can Martin Stay healthy?

New England: Can Dillon Stay Healthy?

Pittsburgh: Haynes or Parker?

 

So, thats 14 teams that have questionable starters.  Leaving 18 sure thing starters.  Not getting 2 RBs early ensures you will be stuck trying to make due with Ron Dayne or Willie Parker as your other RB, and hoping to get lucky.

 

RB/RB/RB.

 

The only other option this year....contrary to what I just told you. You MIGHT be able to go WR/WR/RB/RB/RB if you are late in the first round.  If you can get CJ and Steve Smith and then follow up with 5-6 guys on the above list later in the draft, you might be okay.

729074[/snapback]

This is precisely what I'm struggling with. Again, in a 10 team league, I'm #10. I've entertained taking 2 of what's left at RB. A combination of 2 backs that may include Jackson/Jordan/Johnson/Brown/Williams and follow up in rounds 3 and 4 with WRs such as D. Jackson and H. Ward.

 

OR

 

 

2 stud WRs, and, like you mentioned, going crazy the next 4 rounds with RBs.

This strategy is sounding riskier to me more and more.

[Acantha]

This is precisely what I'm struggling with. Again, in a 10 team league, I'm #10. I've entertained taking 2 of what's left at RB. A combination of 2 backs that may include Jackson/Jordan/Johnson/Brown/Williams and follow up in rounds 3 and 4 with WRs such as D. Jackson and H. Ward.

 

OR

2 stud WRs, and, like you mentioned, going crazy the next 4 rounds with RBs.

This strategy is sounding riskier to me more and more.

729279[/snapback]

 

Why not take one of each?

[Oneonta Buffalo Fan]

Why not take one of each?

729362[/snapback]

 

Sounds good.

[JimBob2232]

Sounds good.

729558[/snapback]

 

Because then you still dont have 2 RBs, you still have to go out and grab a bunch of "possible starters" later on, and you dont have 2 good WRs.

 

If you are going to go for finding RBs later in the draft (round 3 on...) might as well go balls to the wall and pick up a ton of the other guys and get 2 good WRs 1st round.

[The Avenger]

The way I heard to draft in a league is to take Rbs with your first 2 picks.  Should I really do that?

727563[/snapback]

 

Drafting last is a tough place to be, but I don't think there are any hard and fast rules about what to do with regards to when to take running backs.

 

The question to ask yourself when its your turn to pick is what the dropoff in talent will be at the position by your next pick. In the case of RB, there's going to be a HUGE drop in the talent level you get at #10 and the talent level you get at #30 - you're going to need to get a RB at #10 or #11 or you're not going to have ANYONE at the position who is the main ball carrier for their team.

 

At #11 I'd probably look to get a top/the top WR on my board. With 9 guys picking ahead of you, you're not going to get a top 5 RB, but you will get a top 3 receiver (probably even #1). If you settle for another 10+ RB at this spot you'll be picking WR at 30/31 and again you'll be behind everyone. The last thing you want to do in your draft is always be the LAST guy picking at player at a position where everyone else has already scooped someone up - you'll be incrementally weaker at every position on your roster.

 

As difficult as it may be, I'd save your second RB spot for a later round and take an educated risk on a guy who has the potential to be the #1 durring the season (one of the Denver RBs, a rookie like Laurence Maroney in NE or Lendale White in Ten, Cedric Benson in Chicago who may be the main ball carrier but nobody is talking about because he was on the bench last year). Remember that there are many instances where all a guy needs in some opportunity/playing time to show he can do it (Willie Parker, Samkemon Gado) - find these guys but take the sure thing at WR (or QB, depending on your league).

[BuffOrange]

Alexander - Plays 6 games against lousy defenses right in his division. OTOH, he just signed a fat contract and has no shot of duplicating last year, though he doesn't necessarily have to to be worthy of #1.

 

LJ - In an awesome offense, don't see how he doesn't rack up yards & TD's with the best of them. Hasn't played a full season.

 

LDT - In 2003 he was in a horrible offense and averaged a sick 5.2 or 5.3 yards per carry and caught 100 balls, so he should be fine without Brees.

 

It's a tough call. I'd probably take LJ and make sure to grab the Chiefs backup (whoever he is). I think the difference is negligable enough so that I'd prefer the #3 pick though. #4 pick sucks.

[Oneonta Buffalo Fan]

Well I know now I won't take Larry if I get the 1st pick, because Roaf has called it quits. Alexander is now #1 in the draft.

[4BillsintheBurgh]

Well I know now I won't take Larry if I get the 1st pick, because Roaf has called it quits.  Alexander is now #1 in the draft.

731231[/snapback]

Never say never, there is a lot of the preseason left. Although I do agree that Alexander is the safe number one at this point, with LT next and LJ third. I don't like the coaching changes for LJ, but I'll be watching to see if the Chiefs first team O can put together some decent drives this preseason. Seems like Herm will plod down the field instead of going for the big strike, and I think that will be the biggest adjustment for the players.

[Oneonta Buffalo Fan]

Never say never, there is a lot of the preseason left.   Although I do agree that Alexander is the safe number one at this point, with LT next and LJ third.  I don't like the coaching changes for LJ, but I'll be watching to see if the Chiefs first team O can put together some decent drives this preseason.  Seems like Herm will plod down the field instead of going for the big strike, and I think that will be the biggest adjustment for the players.

732337[/snapback]

 

Yeah, but Herm was kind of a bust when he was with the Jets. I don't think he will help the Chiefs. Larry is not the best player in the draft anymore.