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positive and realistic


CAT

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I am a glass half full fan and think the Bills got a good start on rebuilding. Lets hope they play h ard and smart and that our young guys show potential and improve. With a strong offseason next year we should be close to a playoff team. However,there are several obvious NFL obstacles: lousy record last year,bottom of pack in both offense and defense,unproven QB,new coaches/systems, release of several veterans,lots of player turnover and lots of youth. Realisticaaly if we win 8 and improve as the year goes on we will be satisfied. Then we need to turn it on big time inFA because we will be out of patience. If our QB situation looks good we can finish the defense with more pass rush and get O line and a game breker running back

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I don't think we are ready for a playoff run (it would be nice though!) but i think with a solid coaching staff in place,we are on the right track.I do feel that we are going to see a much more motivated and consistent team from week to week...that in itself will be a blessing.Another strong draft and a few more good FA pickups next year.We could be rolling..not to look through rose colored glasses but i like our chances. :lol:

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You know, as long as I don't have to put up with moronic playcalling on offense and constant blitzing on defense I'll be at least partially satisfied.

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You know, as long as I don't have to put up with moronic playcalling on offense and constant blitzing on defense I'll be at least partially satisfied.

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Amen.. the constant blitzing is what always got me. It was amazing how many big plays the D let happen on 3rd and long.

 

Certainly it would be a surprise if the Bills were in the playoffs. But in the NFL, it is hard to predict success or failure. Anything can happen once you start playing the games. Until the Bills are eliminated from contention, I ain't ceding anything.

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Amen.. the constant blitzing is what always got me. It was amazing how many big plays the D let happen on 3rd and long.

 

Certainly it would be a surprise if the Bills were in the playoffs. But in the NFL, it is hard to predict  success or failure. Anything can happen once you start playing the games. Until the Bills are eliminated from contention, I ain't ceding anything.

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While I agree with your assessment, it seems the "3rd and long" issue has been a staple since the Walt Corey D's we've had. We just haven't had an offense that could mask that problem recently. IMO.

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Amen.. the constant blitzing is what always got me. It was amazing how many big plays the D let happen on 3rd and long.

 

Certainly it would be a surprise if the Bills were in the playoffs. But in the NFL, it is hard to predict  success or failure. Anything can happen once you start playing the games. Until the Bills are eliminated from contention, I ain't ceding anything.

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Actually the constant blitzing from the zone blitz scheme worked quite well for two years. However, what seemed to be the case to me was that with two years in the film can opposing DCs had tons of material to use to figure out how to beat our D and actually I think with the return of 10 of 11 starters, individual opponents had a lot of tape to review to figure out the tendencies of our team at particular down and distances and which moves our individual players liked to use.

 

I think not only was our D weaked with the one replacement player for a starter (Edwards for Phat Pat) not only was a downgrade in starter quality, but also was a downgrade in back-up quality as Edwards was quite productive for a few plays a game when he did not have to pace himself, but just could not produce or even stay healthy when asked to play a lot.

 

I think Jerry Gray is actually a far better DC than folks give him ccredit for. The way he quckly mastered LeBeau's scheme such that he could call good plays with it so we finished statistically 5th among Ds (not nearly as impressive as the ultimate stat W/L but it was impressive to go from a D abortion GW's first two years to good statistical production with LeBeau's scheme.

 

Further, many expected a down turn in our D production when LeBeau left after not being given play-calling responsibilities. Specifically, folks thought the 04 D would founder making in game adjustments without LeBeau and even if it finished in the upper thrid of the league statisticallym it would slide under Gray.

 

Instead the D improved statistically from 5th to second under Gray and he was able to do good gameplanning to a 9-7 finish, and even better he did great in game adjustments (an example was Sammy Morris tearing our D a new one in the first half, but adjustments kept him below 100 yards rushed overall.

 

Gray and his D foundered completely last year in good part IMHO because they did not vary the approach enough to fool opponents and keep them guessing.

 

I expect that we are going to see some better D performance this year because:

 

1. Its not hard to do better than the dismal Gray led work of 2005, and

2. Opponents will not have much tape on our knew scheme until mid-season and will only have ideas (some of which will work and some of which will not) and not tried and working plans on how to exploit our D.

 

The need to change is one of the reasons why I hink some posters are drawing too many conclusions about how the Bills will employ the Cover 2 merely based on the way Jauron has traditionally run it.

 

It will actually likley be quite different as DC Fewell is yes a Cover 2 guy, but he ran a version called the Tampa 2 which actually used the MLB to divide the field into thirds rather than halves. By having Whitner resposible for less field than in a traditional Cover 2 it should help him. It also plays well to TVs strength and his age as his ability to make reads (he is an extremely bright guy with lots of experience and though he is not afraid to pop people, his best game is coverage rather than the runstopping required of safties in the zone blitz that used to be our D scheme.

 

I also thing folks are incorrectly assessing London Fletcher. Again as lontime D captain he has shown himself to have great football knowledge. Speed is great when you have a lot of field to cover, but I think making good reads and not taking a first step in the wrong direction will usally nullify apeed. I do not care how fast you are if one is counting on speed to help you overwhelm Peyton Manning you have a long afternoon ahead of you. Fletcher has both reasonable speed and a constant motor which with his football intellect should allow him to do well in a Tampa 2 scheme.

 

Some may voice a fact-free opinon that he is a bad cover guy but.

 

1. He definitiely is shorter than the average lionebacker, but even though this is true there must be other skill he has to have allowed him to be credited with more tackles than any other player in the NFL the last five years.

2. Folks point to the shortness and find fault with his vertical leap (they are two different measures actually) but even if this is the case it means he may be at a disadvanage for some jump ball situtations but for this to occur the QB better be confident and throw the ball in exactly the right place because an experieced player like Fletcher should have the receiver closely marked.

3. Even though he may be at a disadvantage on a jumpball, Fletcher has demonstrated the ability to track the ball well in flight and the hands to reliabily handle the ball as he has been second on this team in kickoff returns behind McGee.

 

IMHO, the key and the wildcard for me is whether we will generate the pass rush with out undersized DTS (of the top 4 on the depth chart the heaviest is listed at 304 lbs). If the passrush is solid (pressures and not even sacks will be fine. A QB will not have time to throw up a perfectly placed jumpball on Fletcher if he is running for his life or throwing off his bsck foot because our DTs shoot the gap.

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There is an awful lot of talent on this team.....

 

I dont think making it to a wildcard is out of the realm of possibility....

 

But we have to start winning games in our divison.....

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Yup, like when Lovie Smith took over as the bears hc and he stated his #1 goal was to beat the green bay packers who at that time were the nfc north's top dog. That has to be the mindset of this coaching staff imo if we're ever going to make the playoffs. To Beat New England and focus mainly on division games. Odds are the more division games you win the better chance you have to make the post season.

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Losing divisional games is what kills us every year....

 

I actually think we got a shot....

 

New England...they are on the way down....losing coaches last year hurt them

 

Miami....get took a step forward last year....but we can still take them

 

The jets are the jets.....we should win BOTH of those games

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There is an awful lot of talent on this team.....

 

I dont think making it to a wildcard is out of the realm of possibility....

 

But we have to start winning games in our divison.....

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Agreed.....The fact that we have sucked big time in the AFC East in the last 5 years has hurt our chances to make the playoffs....

 

Our start to the rise begins in the AFC East. Unless we figure a way to beat the Pats/Fish/Jets, we will not be going anywhere too soon...

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There is an awful lot of talent on this team.....

 

I dont think making it to a wildcard is out of the realm of possibility....

 

But we have to start winning games in our divison.....

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Where?

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Where?

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- Two years ago this team had one of the top defenses in the NFL......we lose one major player from it and we go in the toilet? The majority of those pieces are still on this team. As a matter of fact it looks like we made some pretty good upgrades through the draft.

 

- Losman has talent....he might have talent that is unrealized but there is not denying just by watching his play that he has the tools.....

 

- We DO have offensive weapons.....lets keep in mind that last year our 1st pick of the draft didnt' play until the season was half over and the our next pick (TE) got hurt and didn't even play......we have both those players back....Lee Evans is a talent.....we have several "2nd reciever" type players were there isn't a huge drop off for the 2nd position. Willis Magehee is an obvious talent. I feel that we did upgrade our line in Fowler (Teague just was not a natural center) and Reyes (yes he is an upgrade especially in pass blocking) Peters starts the season instead of watching either Mike WIlliams or that backup from Miami flounder at the RT position. Villy was a talent who played hurt most of last season.

 

- And let us not forget our excellent special teams......there are 3 aspects to a team...offense/defense/special teams

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- Two years ago this team had one of the top defenses in the NFL......we lose one major player from it and we go in the toilet?  The majority of those pieces are still on this team.  As a matter of fact it looks like we made some pretty good upgrades through the draft.

 

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The D woes were much more than due to the loss of one player...especially considering that player did not play 3rd downs....

 

Loss of TKO for the season

Loss of Milloy in the 1st 5 games cost our defensive leader

D's inability to make use of Posey's potential

our starting CBs repeatedly getting burnt

Lack of effort from players like Sam Adams

Inability of our backups to come up with a truly memorable performance

the D's collective inability to stop 3RD and LOOOOOOONG

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