Peter King weighs in about our draft

[Ozymandius]

If the Bills traded with Denver and Ngata, Bunkley and Whitner were gone, who do they take?

 

By trading to #15, the Bills have moved into the twilight zone where the top 13 impact players are gone. Trade down from #15 is highly unlikey.

 

No one rated in this area can be counted on to provide immediate help.

 

If the Bills are right and Whitner is gone, who do they take?

687029[/snapback]

I disagree with the notion of a "top 13 impact players." First, even IF Whitner had been chosen before 15, I would still have looked at my extra second and fourth round picks in a deep draft and been happy. I would have tried to trade down again from 15, but failing that, I would have gone ahead and taken Davin Joseph there. Joseph would be an immediate starter and immediately the best runblocker in our starting lineup. I'm sure that's impactful enough for a team that will really struggle to runblock as things stand right now. But like I said before, I think Whitner would have been there for our taking at 15 anyway.

 

Regardless, I don't think there was an elite 13 or so players. I think it was more like an elite 6 or 7. That's why the pre-draft talk for the Bills was all about trading down for more picks since we picked at 8. I would like to see a link to any pre-draft article or post that talked about an elite 13 players AND that included Donte Whitner in that group. I doubt you'll be able to find one because I think this elite 13 talk is after-the-fact rewriting of history. I think the true cutoff for elite players was after 6 or 7, not 13, and I think that "impact players" that could help us immensely like Joseph were still available at 15.

 

I like Donte Whitner a lot. I'm probably one of the very few posters that is on record pre-draft as liking the idea of the Bills trading down and drafting him in the mid first round. But I don't like him enough to pass up an extra second and fourth rounder and to take him at #8 overall just because there was a chance he wouldn't be available at 15. I don't consider him to be a once in a generation safety prospect that NEEDED to be taken in the top 10. He wasn't even the first safety off the board. I'm also nervous about how the health of a 205-lb strong safety in a physical division is going to hold up over the long haul. I would have taken the chance that he would be available at 15, and if he wasn't, then life goes on. I'll just have to "settle" for seeing Davin Joseph knocking division d-linemen on their ass.

[KOKBILLS]

Speculation of woulda/coulda/shoulda and hindsight are always 20/20...

 

But most of these speculative scenerios concerning the Pick at #8 and the assumed Trade Down scenerios are primarily missing two key points. The first point being that no one knows how long Whitner would have lasted beyond #8. On several accounts he was flying up the Draft Boards of MANY Teams...I realize it means nothing, but I had Whitner going to Baltimore at #13 in My Mock Draft...Assuming he would have lasted till #15 or later is just that...assumtion...

 

The 2nd speculative discrepancy I see is that some Folks are simply ignoring the fact that The Bills had Whitner Rated as the #1 DB in the Draft...The #1 DB on their Board...It simply does not matter where other Teams or Draft Guru's had Whitner Rated because the Bills Rated him higher...MUCH higher in some cases...In fact, I think it's a fair assumtion that the Bills had Whitner Rated no lower than #7 Overall on their Board... If the Bills had Bunkley, Ngata, or even Leinart Rated as high on their Board instead of Whitner, they would have Drafted the Higher Rated Player...That was their Plan...Draft the Highest Rated Player on their Board...

 

I do understand how some feel The Bills did not utilize The Draft to get the best possible value...But that speculation is not based on The Bills Draft Board...It's based on the opinions of others outside The Buffalo Bills Organization...Thus the speculation is basically useless...

[Rico]

I like Donte Whitner a lot.  I'm probably one of the very few posters that is on record pre-draft as liking the idea of the Bills trading down and drafting him in the mid first round.  But I don't like him enough to pass up an extra second and fourth rounder and to take him at #8 overall just because there was a chance he wouldn't be available at 15.  I don't consider him to be a once in a generation safety prospect that NEEDED to be taken in the top 10.  He wasn't even the first safety off the board.  I'm also nervous about how the health of a 205-lb strong safety in a physical division is going to hold up over the long haul.  I would have taken the chance that he would be available at 15, and if he wasn't, then life goes on.  I'll just have to "settle" for seeing Davin Joseph knocking division d-linemen on their ass.

687135[/snapback]

Interesting take... I've already said above I'm OK now with the Whitner pick, but I think I would much rather have Davin Joseph and Matt Bowen starting this year (plus the extra picks from Denver) than Donte Whitner and Bennie Reyes. Sure, SS is a high priority, but there are still many other holes that could've also been filled instead.

[D_House]

I would have tried to trade down again from 15, but failing that, I would have gone ahead and taken Davin Joseph there.  Joseph would be an immediate starter and immediately the best runblocker in our starting lineup.  I'm sure that's impactful enough for a team that will really struggle to runblock as things stand right now.

687135[/snapback]

And the 'experts' would have blasted the bills for taking a guard predicted to go in round 2 when we had needs at safety and DT to address. The Bills were in a lose-lose situation sitting at 8. Either they take guys like Leinart or Ngata that make the pundits happy (because they were talking them up), but don't help the team, or they take a guy that helps the team but isn't good 'value,' according to ESPN.

[Dawgg]

My point exactly.

 

Right on.

 

I disagree with the notion of a "top 13 impact players."  First, even IF Whitner had been chosen before 15, I would still have looked at my extra second and fourth round picks in a deep draft and been happy.  I would have tried to trade down again from 15, but failing that, I would have gone ahead and taken Davin Joseph there.  Joseph would be an immediate starter and immediately the best runblocker in our starting lineup.  I'm sure that's impactful enough for a team that will really struggle to runblock as things stand right now.  But like I said before, I think Whitner would have been there for our taking at 15 anyway.

 

Regardless, I don't think there was an elite 13 or so players.  I think it was more like an elite 6 or 7.  That's why the pre-draft talk for the Bills was all about trading down for more picks since we picked at 8.  I would like to see a link to any pre-draft article or post that talked about an elite 13 players AND that included Donte Whitner in that group.  I doubt you'll be able to find one because I think this elite 13 talk is after-the-fact rewriting of history.  I think the true cutoff for elite players was after 6 or 7, not 13, and I think that "impact players" that could help us immensely like Joseph were still available at 15.

 

I like Donte Whitner a lot.  I'm probably one of the very few posters that is on record pre-draft as liking the idea of the Bills trading down and drafting him in the mid first round.  But I don't like him enough to pass up an extra second and fourth rounder and to take him at #8 overall just because there was a chance he wouldn't be available at 15.  I don't consider him to be a once in a generation safety prospect that NEEDED to be taken in the top 10.  He wasn't even the first safety off the board.  I'm also nervous about how the health of a 205-lb strong safety in a physical division is going to hold up over the long haul.  I would have taken the chance that he would be available at 15, and if he wasn't, then life goes on.  I'll just have to "settle" for seeing Davin Joseph knocking division d-linemen on their ass.

687135[/snapback]

[Ozymandius]

Interesting take... I've already said above I'm OK now with the Whitner pick, but I think I would much rather have Davin Joseph and Matt Bowen starting this year (plus the extra picks from Denver) than Donte Whitner and Bennie Reyes. Sure, SS is a high priority, but there are still many other holes that could've also been filled instead.

687143[/snapback]

I don't think you would have had to endure seeing Bowen at SS even if the Bills had ended up with Joseph instead of Whitner. I think, in hindsight, we signed Bowen primarily because he is a special teams demon and will make the team because of that, but we had planned to use a day 1 pick for a starter at SS all along. There were several strong safeties in this draft that are better than Matt Bowen and odds are we would have ended up with one of them even if we didn't draft Whitner.

[Dawgg]

I disagree with this logic.

 

Yes, the Bills value the players based on their draft board, not others outside of the Bills' organization. That is to be expected in any marketplace with multiple buyers -- different people value commodities differently. That being said, this can be leveraged to one's benefit. If Denver valued Cutler enough to move up to #8 and surrender a 2nd rounder and 4th rounder, the Bills should have taken advantage of that, even at the prospect of losing Whitner. We'll see if Whitner is the BEST DB available in this draft... that is extremely doubtful IMO.

 

I do understand how some feel The Bills did not utilize The Draft to get the best possible value...But that speculation is not based on The Bills Draft Board...It's based on the opinions of others outside The Buffalo Bills Organization...Thus the speculation is basically useless...

687137[/snapback]

[Ozymandius]

And the 'experts' would have blasted the bills for taking a guard predicted to go in round 2 when we had needs at safety and DT to address.  The Bills were in a lose-lose situation sitting at 8.  Either they take guys like Leinart or Ngata that make the pundits happy (because they were talking them up), but don't help the team, or they take a guy that helps the team but isn't good 'value,' according to ESPN.

687145[/snapback]

Well, I don't care about what Kiper and others would say. Joseph was the best guard in this draft and to me would be excellent value at 15 for a team that can't runblock.

 

I don't care about the experts. I care about the second and fourth rounder we passed up.

[Rico]

Well, I don't care about what Kiper and others would say.  Joseph was the best guard in this draft and to me would be excellent value at 15 for a team that can't runblock.

 

I don't care about the experts.  I care about the second and fourth rounder we passed up.

687160[/snapback]

I don't care about the experts either... I do care though about our young QB not being properly set-up for success by failing to add significant talent to the OL through FA or the draft.

[Berni]

As it is, we took the best SS and the best DT on the board when we took them.  Both positions were critical needs for us. 

 

In my opinion, we got the #1 SS; Huff is a FS.

[Bill from NYC]

I disagree with this logic.

 

Yes, the Bills value the players based on their draft board, not others outside of the Bills' organization.  That is to be expected in any marketplace with multiple buyers -- different people value commodities differently.  That being said, this can be leveraged to one's benefit.  If Denver valued Cutler enough to move up to #8 and surrender a 2nd rounder and 4th rounder, the Bills should have taken advantage of that, even at the prospect of losing Whitner.  We'll see if Whitner is the BEST DB available in this draft... that is extremely doubtful IMO.

687159[/snapback]

 

I agree with you, because as the cap increases, it will become more and more difficult for the Bills to bring in top players anywhere other than the draft. Ralph does not have the money nor perhaps even the inclination to spend it as compared to the richer owners. Isn't this what he saying in some way after the CBA?

 

This draft CAN be a success, but for this to be the case some of the picks from round 5 back will have to be quality players, and Whitner has to be probowl caliber.

 

Jmo.

[stuckincincy]

I don't care about the experts either... I do care though about our young QB not being properly set-up for success by failing to add significant talent to the OL through FA or the draft.

687165[/snapback]

Eric...Eric...Eric...

[Rico]

Eric...Eric...Eric...

687182[/snapback]

As Wallace Shawn once said,

"IN-CON-CEIV-ABLE!"

[Scraps]

Woulda, coulda, shoulda. King might be correctly reporting its one person' view there is a 95% chance Whitner lasts til the Bills move down to 15 that is merely one person's view and good reporting mandate he at least explore and should flar out say there is  a 95% chance this indivual was wrong,

 

Many mocls had Det at 9 taking Huff and clearly Whitner is at least a consideration for him there. 

 

Actually i did not think it was a tough deal to pass on at all since there was no way the Bills would be able to build the team they want (as seen in their sche,e choice of the Cover-2 and the acqusition of certain types of FAs -Triplett for eample and draft choice trading up for a Mccargo type after passing on Ngota/Bunkley.  Getting Denvers choices would also make it tough to meet the timeline they espoused (Ralph ain't gettin any younger and we have missed the playoffs too many years in a row).

 

There were at least two other teams on the board before 15 with an interest in SS who went elsewhere in real life but Whitner was gone,  Eveb tougher, the Fins took a safety at 15 and given that the Rams ick above 15 was said to be tradeable who to say that the Fins might not have made the right offer and moved ahead of us.

 

The risk comes not from your guesstimate of whether there is a 95% chance he will be there but from there being a 100% chance you do not control people reading above you and killing you

 

The whole though process seems incorrect to me in that given what it appears the Bills plan was (fill the SS and DT slots with one of the two SS with a good chance of doing this immediately and 1 of the 3 DTs with a good chance of doing this quickly and their timeline for accomplishing their goals (get more Ws and even a spitting chance at the playoffs this year cause Ralph ain't gonna last forever) there is no way they could have accomplished these goals with the 15th pick, an extra 2nd and a 4th.

 

In order to do much better and get Ws right now they needed to fill the hole left with the cut of Milloy with either Huff or apparently their preference Whitner. The 3rd safety chosen or 4th or 5th (Allen, Bullocks, Manning) were simply not good prospects to start immediately for the Bills Once #7 took Hiff and possibly #9 might take Whitner or #16 pick could be traded up you take Whitner.

 

Likewise, once you take the remaining safety, and 2 of the three DTs who may contribute quickly are picked then you trade up and get the last DT )no DTS were even drafted in the second round after the Bills took McCargo.

 

Kings thinking is poorly reported.

686582[/snapback]

 

Timeline? What timeline? If the Bills sought immediate improvement, that comes through free agency. Didn't get much help there. Trading down in this years draft from 8 to 15 or not trading down isn't going to change the fact that this team is seriously weak on both lines and is looking at a 3-13 season. Future years might have looked better if they'd picked up more young talent in this draft however.

[EC-Bills]

He also doesn't talk about Detroit possibly taking Whitner.

686347[/snapback]

 

But don't forget, Mort said...

[Dibs]

First of all, I wouldn't necessarily say that there were 13 top-impact players int he draft, after which there was a significant drop-off.  To me, there were really 8 players in this draft who are considered to carry "blue-chip" value:

687062[/snapback]

There were 8 "blue-chip" value players to you...

But....

 

If we say the Bills rated Whitner as high as that top 8 of yours(i.e. a top 9),

 

And....

 

The drop off is perceived as great(by the Bills) after their top 9(as was yours after your top 8).

 

Is it unreasonable to not want to take the risk that another team also rates Whitner as high?

[Mickey]

I disagree with this logic.

 

Yes, the Bills value the players based on their draft board, not others outside of the Bills' organization.  That is to be expected in any marketplace with multiple buyers -- different people value commodities differently.  That being said, this can be leveraged to one's benefit.  If Denver valued Cutler enough to move up to #8 and surrender a 2nd rounder and 4th rounder, the Bills should have taken advantage of that, even at the prospect of losing Whitner.  We'll see if Whitner is the BEST DB available in this draft... that is extremely doubtful IMO.

687159[/snapback]

Assuming Whitner would have been gone before we picked at 15 after the trade down with Denver, who would you have taken at that position? If people think McCargo was a reach at 26, he certainly would have been an even bigger reach at 15. Given our needs which were SS, DT, OT and G, who was there that was worth the 15th pick in the draft at those positions? Cutler and Leinart were gone by then. All that was left worthy of that position were maybe a few CB's. We still would have had to deal up from the second to land McCargo.

 

As troubling as some might find what we did, the alternatives could have been much worse. I just think that given the needs we had, the handful of players available at those positions that were any good and our draft position, that we didn't really have the wide range of free wheeling deals available that so many think we had.

[tennesseeboy]

After a lot of time for reflection I have to say it was a pretty darn good draft. That given the fact that our first pick was not a lineman, but a "stretch" safety. The guy sounds like just what we need at the safety position and I think time will probably show he will be a very strong asset. The rest of the draft looks darn good. I say a B plus with a potential A after a grade appeal after the upcoming season!

[DeLuca1967]

Maybe.  But my take is that Marv's experience as a coach makes it more likely he'll target players he likes (like Whitner & McCargo), rather than rolling the dice and playing the odds like TD used to do. 

 

On the whole, I like [bMarv's approach just fine--as long as they're correct in their personnel assessments.  Two guys who fit the scheme perfectly are more valuable, IMO, than three who don't mesh as well.

686343[/snapback]

 

Which has nothing to do with being a GM and is why most coaches don't make good GM's. It's a different mind set. The Bills had a chance to have a really good draft. But the speed and action of draft day was too much for the Bills GM. You can't go into a draft narrow minded or with tunnel vision. You have to be prepared for things as they come at you. When things started flying and players started falling the Bills GM wasn't prepared and in the end it will cost the Bills. With that extra second and fourth I bet we could have gotten some more line help. If we had a GM.

[Tasker]

Obviously it would have been better to trade down to 15 and take Whitner, and to stay put in the 2nd and take McCargo, but there are some pretty big doubt as to if those players would have been available, and potentially a big dropoff in talent if they were not.

 

No, I don't think Marv played a masterful chess game in evaluating everybody else's situations and getting the absolute best possible positioning in the draft. But I think he got two really solid players in the first round, and solid players through the rest of the draft.

 

No glamour in this draft...no crafty manipulative risk taking genius...but this is a very good draft which is going to help our football team get better.

 

I'm not going to start throwing around projections, but I think we were better than 5-11 last year, and I think we have gotten better this off season. Give Willis the ball, let JPL play in a running offense, and play good D, and good things will happen.

 

Go Bills.