What do you think are chances 4 starting QB?

[JDG]

I have always thought this. What a lousy friggin reason, wouldn't you say?

687416[/snapback]

 

I suppose you think that Donahoe should just have made no notice of the fact that Bledsoe had just turned in one of the most painful and excruciating losses in Buffalo Bills history?

 

And its not like it was "just one game". If Bledsoe had been good, maybe, just maybe, you could treat that game as a mulligan. As it was, that game was the low point of a fairly dismal season anyways.

 

JDG

[Kelly the Dog]

I have always thought this. What a lousy friggin reason, wouldn't you say?

687416[/snapback]

No. Not at all. If Bledsoe would have been the player/QB that you think can lead your team deep into the playoffs and win the SB, he would have been still here. TD decided, along with the coaches I imagine, and I surely agreed with him, that Bledsoe couldn't. So you go on and go with a player that has that possiblity. That guy, on the Bills, at that time, was Losman. He was a #1 pick, he has all the talent, he just needed to play to find out. Bacause of how they treated him last year, we still don't know.

[Orton's Arm]

Losman is a much better athlete, much faster, much better runner, better and bigger arm, can throw on the run, can scramble, and was a number one draft choice. Nall is slower, can't run, less of an arm and didnt even start in college. If Losman and Nall both play as well as they can play, or both reach their potential, Losman will be a much better player. He has all the tools and better physical gifts than Nall.

687414[/snapback]

Where Losman was drafted is irrelevant. For one thing, sunk costs are sunk--you ignore them in making future decisions. Secondly, TD's track record in making QB decisions is abysmal. TD thought Losman was worthy of a first round pick; but maybe real GMs like Bill Polian or Ron Wolf would see the situation differently.

 

I'm not sure where you got the idea Losman's arm is stronger than Nall's. That aside, both QBs are more mobile and have stronger arms than Brady. Neither Nall nor Losman will fail due to a lack of physical gifts.

[Kelly the Dog]

Where Losman was drafted is irrelevant.  For one thing, sunk costs are sunk--you ignore them in making future decisions.  Secondly, TD's track record in making QB decisions is abysmal.  TD thought Losman was worthy of a first round pick; but maybe real GMs like Bill Polian or Ron Wolf would see the situation differently. 

 

I'm not sure where you got the idea Losman's arm is stronger than Nall's.  That aside, both QBs are more mobile and have stronger arms than Brady.  Neither Nall nor Losman will fail due to a lack of physical gifts.

687450[/snapback]

Most draftniks and scouts and GMs had Losman as a #1 or #2 pick. At least two other teams we know of were going to draft him in the first. It is based on his talent. The only two knocks on him were because he was raw (he only played two years as a starter instead of the three and four that the three guys above him had), and he played at Tulane, plus he was thought of as cocky by some scouts. Nall was a surprise to even be picked in the 5th round. Those don't mean much now, but they do have a very good indication of pure talent. That is why guys get picked high as quarterbacks. It's not foolproof but it is almost inarguable that Losman has first round talent. What isn't known is if he has first round production.

 

Do you want to bet $1000 as to which quarterback scouts and personel people think has a stronger arm, Losman or Craig Nall?

[justnzane]

yeah i think

60% JPL

 

20% Nall

 

10 % Holcomb

 

This is becuase the bills are looking long term, so i think holcomb would be SOL. From there, I think JPL gets the nod due to level of $ he is costing

[1billsfan]

From there, I think JPL gets the nod due to level of $ he is costing

687479[/snapback]

 

I disagree. I believe that whichever QB starts on the opening weekend is really going to come down to who's clicking the best with the first team towards the end of the preseason. I don't think money is a factor anymore.

[Orton's Arm]

Most draftniks and scouts and GMs had Losman as a #1 or #2 pick. . . . Nall was a surprise to even be picked in the 5th round.

Brady was chosen in the 6th round, and Kurt Warner spent time bagging groceries because nobody drafted him. Akili Smith, on the other hand, was chosen third overall.

[Kelly the Dog]

Brady was chosen in the 6th round, and Kurt Warner spent time bagging groceries because nobody drafted him.  Akili Smith, on the other hand, was chosen third overall.

687513[/snapback]

You know, you're right. Teams should never draft any quarterback except in the 6th round or straight out of the University of Wegman's and they should especially avoid quarterbacks that can run and throw in the first five rounds because Akili Smith was a bust. That's a damn good point.

[stuckincincy]

Brady was chosen in the 6th round, and Kurt Warner spent time bagging groceries because nobody drafted him.  Akili Smith, on the other hand, was chosen third overall.

687513[/snapback]

 

Smith was the demanded choice of owner/GM Mike Brown. The coaches were not pleased, but the boss insisted.

[Orton's Arm]

You know, you're right. Teams should never draft any quarterback except in the 6th round or straight out of the University of Wegman's and they should especially avoid quarterbacks that can run and throw in the first five rounds because Akili Smith was a bust. That's a damn good point.

687517[/snapback]

My point--which apparently you missed--was that teams are often wrong when drafting QBs. They draft the wrong guys (Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Ryan Leaf, etc.) while ignoring the right guys (Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, Joe Montana, Jake Delhomme). General managers as a group aren't good at predicting QB success, and TD was worse than most.

[Kelly the Dog]

My point--which apparently you missed--was that teams are often wrong when drafting QBs.  They draft the wrong guys (Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Ryan Leaf, etc.) while ignoring the right guys (Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, Joe Montana, Jake Delhomme).  General managers as a group aren't good at predicting QB success, and TD was worse than most.

687546[/snapback]

Of course they do. But you were responding to a post about who had more pure talent. And I would say it's pretty obvious if 95% of GMs and draftniks and scouts thought Losman was 1-2 round talent and Nall was 5-7 round talent, that Losman has more natural talent. They all could be wrong of course, but I doubt it on this one.

[Orton's Arm]

Of course they do. But you were responding to a post about who had more pure talent. And I would say it's pretty obvious if 95% of GMs and draftniks and scouts thought Losman was 1-2 round talent and Nall was 5-7 round talent, that Losman has more natural talent. They all could be wrong of course, but I doubt it on this one.

687549[/snapback]

If you're saying Losman has a world of physical talent, I agree. But if playing QB was just about physical talent, why not line Willis McGahee up under center? He'd be faster than every QB except Michael Vick.

 

The real question is whether Losman has the accuracy and mental tools to play QB. You don't know whether 95% of GMs felt he had these mental tools or not. TD and Mike Sherman felt this way about him, but both men are failed GMs.

[Orton's Arm]

Uh.... o.k.  But Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Ryan Leaf, Cade McNown, and Andre Ware all had worlds of physical talent to.  In the end, though, I think that they all ultimately had less talent than Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, and Jake Delhomme.   

 

I think this discussion is being prolonged because you show no signs of even allowing for the possibility that Losman just might be in the first group, and that Craig Nall might be in the latter group - a guy who was admittedly drafted low, but ultimately has more talent than certain mid-to-late first round picks.

Your second paragraph seems to be addressed to someone other than me, even though I'm the one you quoted. There's no way that anyone can possibly accuse me of being unaware of the possibility that Losman is a bust.

[EC-Bills]

Nall 50% Losman 45% Holcomb 5%

 

Nall is the new regime's hand-picked QB and therefore the favorite.  Losman is close because of his potential.  Holcomb probably doesn't stand a chance because we are looking at this year as a rebuilding year, a system implementation year, and that means we are going to choose a "QB of the future" and have him learn on the job.

687235[/snapback]

 

I agree. It will either be Nall or Losman. Holcomb doesn't do us any good other than having a veteran presence to draw from.

[EC-Bills]

I have always thought this. What a lousy friggin reason, wouldn't you say?

687416[/snapback]

 

I agree. Handing the keys to JP was a mistake. But not JP's fault.

[stuckincincy]

I agree. It will either be Nall or Losman.  Holcomb doesn't do us any good other than having a veteran presence to draw from.

687637[/snapback]

 

Nall will have an uphill battle, playing so little, and having no idea of the nuances of the Bills OL's and the WR's.

[EC-Bills]

If you're saying Losman has a world of physical talent, I agree.  But if playing QB was just about physical talent, why not line Willis McGahee up under center?  He'd be faster than every QB except Michael Vick.

 

The real question is whether Losman has the accuracy and mental tools to play QB.  You don't know whether 95% of GMs felt he had these mental tools or not.  TD and Mike Sherman felt this way about him, but both men are failed GMs.

687565[/snapback]

 

Yeah and Mike Martz was also high on Losman. Of course we all know Martz hasn't a clue about offense.

 

I am also getting tired of this "you are missing my point" mumbo jumbo.

 

We all get it that you have a giant case of man love for Holcomb and anybody who isn't JP.

 

And we also know you would like to think that you actually *know* how JP will pan out after 8 actual games of playing. Yes, I know that will lead to your standard he's been here blah blah number of years already and should be able to do all this and that.

 

All the studying in the world doesn't alway prepare you for what happens on the

field.

 

Is JP the answer? I don't know. No one knows. Unlike you though, I am more than willing to give him a chance.

[EC-Bills]

Nall will have an uphill battle, playing so little, and having no idea of the nuances of the Bills OL's and the WR's.

687650[/snapback]

 

True. Although I would venture he wouldn't have too hard of a time figuring out last year's OL nuances though. It would be simple:

 

1. Hike the ball.

2. Run for your life

 

[The Jokeman]

Of course I'm using my personal bias with the numbers I going to put up but here goes:

 

Losman 35% Nall 35% Holcomb 20% Ochs 10% Woodbury 0%

 

As stated before I truly think it's a two man competition between Losman and Nall where Holcomb should be the primary back up. I think Ochs has shown real well in NFL Europe and while he might not make it this year think he be great for the practice squad and someone to look for in the future if both Losman or Nall don't look to be the answer at QB.

[Pyrite Gal]

Where Losman was drafted is irrelevant.  For one thing, sunk costs are sunk--you ignore them in making future decisions. . 

 

687450[/snapback]

 

This is so completely wrong in terms of understanding the last 12 years+ or so of football, that my first thought was that you could not be claiming what you seemed to be claiming.

 

However, the words above are the words above and they are completely counter to how decisions have been made under the salary cap.

 

1, Where a player is drafted is slotted and determines his initial contract. The Bills hung onto MW not only because they had sunk a bunch of $ into him.but because if the cut him the acceleration of the bonus paid to him would kill the team. Where a player is drafted has a big impact on decisions on whether to keep him or not/

 

2. The HC may ignore where a player was drafted and his costs if he is commited to making straight football descisions. However, it is the owner who owns the team and its his money. Just as Ralph hated having an $8 million bonus sit on the bench and anointed RJ the starter after he rolled over an Indy team that had given up when they realized the game outcome would not improve their playoff position the decision about the future was driven by $ rather than football.

 

3. Pro football used to be a sport which happened to be a business but today it is a businss that happens to also be a sport.

 

Please do not fool yourself into thinking that draft position due to slotting and sunk costs do not make any difference in future decisions. Often they are the key thing.