Dr. K Posted May 5, 2006 Posted May 5, 2006 Ran across this blog posting today, with a link to an academic paper that analyzes on economic terms when, in terms of field postion and yards-to-go, it makes sense for an NFL offense to try for the first down on fourth rather than attempting a kick. The paper concludes that coaches are too conservative--that an analysis shows that it makes sense to go for the first down about twice as often as NFL coaches typically do. Here's the link: http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginal...otball_coa.html (PS: This is a political blog, but you can ignore the politics)
obie_wan Posted May 5, 2006 Posted May 5, 2006 I agree that coaches should go for it far more often than they do. It puts a long more pressure on the defense to stop a team 4 downs in a row. It is a huge emotional drain to stop a team on 3rd down and then see that they are challenging your D again on 4th down.
Arkady Renko Posted May 5, 2006 Posted May 5, 2006 Think about how much we want the opposing team to not go for it when we stop them on third down.
Beerball Posted May 5, 2006 Posted May 5, 2006 Think about how much we want the opposing team to not go for it when we stop them on third down. 684279[/snapback] Word
VRWC Posted May 5, 2006 Posted May 5, 2006 Totally agree. I've been saying this for years and now I have proof. I dosen't make sense to punt on forth down inside the 40 in most cases. The risks of a long run, TD, bad kick, touch back to the twenty vs. a first down and a score seems to be a no brainer. Momentum is also a factor if a team can stop you on forth down inside their zone but overall I think it's sound move not to kick if you need 10 yards or less for a first.
colin Posted May 5, 2006 Posted May 5, 2006 i read a bloomberg article looking at the value of draft picks (by how much they overperform their salary) and it said the top of the 1st is crap but the 2nd round is great. anyhow, i don't like this kind of analysis on football, it ignores too many other things that are specific and relevant to football. there is a large emotion and psychological aspect of the game, going for it and messing up gives the other team a boost and hurts your own guys. there are also only so many plays one can run on 4th that have a chance to move the chains, if you ran those plays more you'd reduce your ability to pull them off. wrt the draft, the analysis ignores how very very good players make other players better, and how they are scarce, and you need certain rare players to win the superbowl, the goal of every team. in other words, winning one year and sucking the next 2 is better than being pretty good for 3 years.
Ghost of BiB Posted May 5, 2006 Posted May 5, 2006 I wonder what the statistical analysis shows for punting from the opponents 35?
Beerball Posted May 5, 2006 Posted May 5, 2006 I wonder what the statistical analysis shows for punting from the opponents 35? 684322[/snapback] I ferget, was that Meathead or Gregggggggggo? Seems it was the latter, on the other hand it's the Meathead way.
Rubes Posted May 5, 2006 Posted May 5, 2006 I ferget, was that Meathead or Gregggggggggo? Seems it was the latter, on the other hand it's the Meathead way. 684331[/snapback] Take your pick, they both did it. But the one that will always get me is the Gregggggo call in the New England game at home. Punted from the 32. Egads.
Ghost of BiB Posted May 5, 2006 Posted May 5, 2006 Take your pick, they both did it. But the one that will always get me is the Gregggggo call in the New England game at home. Punted from the 32. Egads. 684364[/snapback] Ranks right behind the double fake reverse screen pass as one of my all time Bills playbook favorites.
Beerball Posted May 5, 2006 Posted May 5, 2006 Ranks right behind the double fake reverse screen pass as one of my all time Bills playbook favorites. 684389[/snapback] Please mommy, make it STOP!!!
Ramius Posted May 5, 2006 Posted May 5, 2006 Ranks right behind the double fake reverse screen pass as one of my all time Bills playbook favorites. 684389[/snapback] Mine is the travis henry option pass on the 5.
Ghost of BiB Posted May 5, 2006 Posted May 5, 2006 Mine is the travis henry option pass on the 5. 684406[/snapback] Beerball will melt down very soon... How about the tricky direct snap to a midget?
Ozymandius Posted May 5, 2006 Posted May 5, 2006 For a good defense / bad offense team like the Bears, punting from the opponent's 40 yard line is actually the better option because odds are, they'll get the ball right back in good field position, and you have to weigh the fact that the Bears offense likely won't convert the 4th down. It all depends on what kind of team you have. A great offense / bad defense team should go for it more often than not.
Matt in KC Posted May 5, 2006 Posted May 5, 2006 For a good defense / bad offense team like the Bears, punting from the opponent's 40 yard line is actually the better option because odds are, they'll get the ball right back in good field position, and you have to weigh the fact that the Bears offense likely won't convert the 4th down. It all depends on what kind of team you have. A great offense / bad defense team should go for it more often than not. 684412[/snapback] I agree. If NFL coaches know that too, this paper can be interpretted as coaches on average underestimating their team's ability (assuming all coaches want to win).
MRW Posted May 5, 2006 Posted May 5, 2006 I agree. If NFL coaches know that too, this paper can be interpretted as coaches on average underestimating their team's ability (assuming all coaches want to win). 684423[/snapback] Well, that is the question, isn't it? Not that there are any coaches who don't want to win, but I think there is a certain subset that would rather make the conventional choice and avoid second-guessing rather than taking what might be a good risk.
Arkady Renko Posted May 5, 2006 Posted May 5, 2006 The real problem maybe the dumbasses in the media whose unfair criticisms make the coaches incredibly risk averse.
IDBillzFan Posted May 5, 2006 Posted May 5, 2006 Mine is the travis henry option pass on the 5. 684406[/snapback] In all fairness to that play, no one saw that play coming. Unfortunately, we all could have told you the result if told beforehand. I've been under the impression that teams increasingly have gone for it on 4th and 1 or 2 inside the opponent's 40, and I think it makes sense from a field position standpoint. I've always wished we had that massive power run for a yard play that teams like Oakland and Pittsburgh have. Big, meaty dudes at the line, in the backfield, and just stuff it. It seemed like it never failed for them. But I think you need a meaty guy running the ball, as well.
Matt in KC Posted May 5, 2006 Posted May 5, 2006 I'd love to see a team-by-team breakdown of 4th down attempts, success / failure, and average gain in comperable (3rd down?) distance scenarios compared to what they actually chose.
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