Derby Help

[taterhill]

I may have to watch.."Let it Ride" tonight...Trotter...

 

Tony Cheesburger: The 4 horse! Nobody bets the 4 horse, Trotter. The 4 horse is a joke. They let little kiddies on the 4 horse to have their picture taken."

[smokinandjokin]

Sometimes in the Derby the longshots are actually high quality horses that have just been pointed correctly.  Unbridled and Alysheba come to mind.  They weren't super long but they fit the Derby real well.  Sometimes the prep winners have no business going a mile and a quarter and end up 4-1.  See Mr. Frisky.

 

That's why i like AP Warrior a bit.  His style was a bad fit in the SA Derby but will likely be a good fit tomorrow. 

 

I will buy the notion that closers need some racing luck.  That is always true in the Derby (Sea Hero is a good example).

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Agreed. There's a reason the morning line favorite hasn't won since '79. I like A.P. Warrior also, especially at 15-1. His fade in the SA Derby is a concern; it looked like Bro Derek broke him.

 

I really like Point Determined at 12/1. Very inconsistent horse, and hasn't figured everything out yet. His style can drive you mad because he never looks like he's going all out. But he's got a red hot jockey in Bejarano, and if the horse can keep his head together for 2 minutes, he's got a chance. He's out of Point Given and is a monster, so you'd think the distance shouldn't be an issue.

 

I can't get behind Bob and John. Seems like a good horse and a decent value bet, but the 14+ second final furlong in the Wood is shockingly slow. I know that was in the slop, but your final furlong in the Derby (on a closer-biased track) better be in the low-12's or you're not winning the race.

 

I'm sure I will run some side action with A.P.W. and P.D., both are nice value bets if they go off at those numbers.

[OGTEleven]

Agreed.  There's a reason the morning line favorite hasn't won since '79.

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Except for Fusaichi Pegasus

[smokinandjokin]

Except for Fusaichi Pegasus

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But of course!

[HopsGuy]

I may have to watch.."Let it Ride" tonight...Trotter...

 

Tony Cheesburger: The 4 horse! Nobody bets the 4 horse, Trotter. The 4 horse is a joke. They let little kiddies on the 4 horse to have their picture taken."

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"That's why I only put 2 bucks on the longest shot there is. That way I don't get my heart broke."

[plenzmd1]

But of course! 

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Allright, here are my tickets. just wanted it iut so when they win yall can call me "handicapp god"

 

Really, didn't bet much, just could find anybody i really liked, but here goes

 

1 triplke box2-8-17

1 tri box278

1 ex bosx 1-8

1 ex box 2-17

1 tri key 8/2 18

1 ex box 11-13-8

1 tri box 11-13-8

 

Those last two are shout outs to the MD homebred jocks

 

1 tri box 2-8-11

1 ex box11/2678

20 WP 2

 

1 tri boix 2-4-16

1 ex box 2-4-16

 

Thats it $ 86 beaners.

 

BTW hit the last two trips and ex at churchill... yee haa!!!!!!!!

[rastabillz]

I think there will be a pace meltdown and allow the closers/far stalkers a great shot. I really like SweetnorthernSaint but I think he will be too close to the fast pace. I will be going with A.P. Warrior and also have a little money on Cause to Believe who will be closing from the clouds late like Giacmo last year. I think the pace will be fast enough for a plodder like CTB to sneak up for a piece of the pie.

[KD in CA]

Sweet run by Barbaro. It looked like he had plenty left for the longer distances. Should be a good Preakness.

[plenzmd1]

Sweet run by Barbaro.  It looked like he had plenty left for the longer distances.  Should be a good Preakness.

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well at least im cashing a $1 ex ticket, exacta was was $587, woo hoo, $300 on a $6 dollar bet!!!!!!!!

 

Like I said above, go bet yer roots , and the MD tracks hold a special place in my heart. Good for Edgar and Ramon.

[Albany,n.y.]

I love that old song Red Eye Love so I like Steppenwolfer but I really think Barbaro will run away from them.  He is the one stalker who is better than the rest.  I think Bluegrass Cat is underrated after a bad race in his last.  Pletcher has Keyed entry in there as a rabbit for him.  The only other decent closer is Jazil.  My picks are:

 

1. Barbaro

2. Bluegrass Cat

3. Steppenwolfer

 

4. Jazil

 

I will box the exacta with all 4 and the triple with the top 3.  I will play $1 Supers like this:

 

1. Barbaro (1)

2. BG Cat & Stepp (2)

3. BGCat/Step/Jazil (2)

4. All (17)

 

$68

 

I will play a $5 Super

 

1. Barbaro (1)

2. BG Cat & Stepp (2)

3. BGCat/Step/Jazil (2)

4. BGCat/Step/Jazil (1)

 

$20

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Nice editing job

[ieatcrayonz]

I love that old song Red Eye Love so I like Steppenwolfer but I really think Barbaro will run away from them.  He is the one stalker who is better than the rest.  I think Bluegrass Cat is underrated after a bad race in his last.  Pletcher has Keyed entry in there as a rabbit for him.  The only other decent closer is Jazil.  My picks are:

 

1. Barbaro

2. Bluegrass Cat

3. Steppenwolfer

 

4. Jazil

 

I will box the exacta with all 4 and the triple with the top 3.  I will play $1 Supers like this:

 

1. Barbaro (1)

2. BG Cat & Stepp (2)

3. BGCat/Step/Jazil (2)

4. All (17)

 

$68

 

I will play a $5 Super

 

1. Barbaro (1)

2. BG Cat & Stepp (2)

3. BGCat/Step/Jazil (2)

4. BGCat/Step/Jazil (1)

 

$20

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WHOOOOOOOOO HOOOOOOOOOOO

 

I went on a bender. Saturday at 6:30 straight through to 2AM this morning. Just woke up.

 

Cashed my exacta tickets right after the race. Does anyone know a good tax accountant. I want to avoid as much as I can. State taxws aren't bad but the Fed.....Ouch.

 

I'm good at picking horses but I really nailed that one.