Derby Help

[plenzmd1]

Must admit, have not been following the three yr olds very closely. Seems to me ton of speed in the race, but i think in my own fuuged up way thats gunna help the BEST speed horse. These jocks and trainers sometimes outhink themselves, and with the consensus being a suicidal spped dual up front, me thinks someone gunna be on a clear lead.

 

From what I've read, Baffert just gunna let sinister go no matter what. So is that the pick are are the sharpies out there liking a deep closer better. If so, who is that? Haven't picked up a form yet, so just looking for some opinions.

 

BTW, outside with a grilled Shalens and some Aunt Rosies, 80 degress no humididty, this unemployed chit aint so bad

[smokinandjokin]

Must admit, have not been following the three yr olds very closely. Seems to me ton of speed in the race, but i think in my own fuuged up way thats gunna help the BEST speed horse. These jocks and trainers sometimes outhink themselves, and with the consensus being a suicidal spped dual up front, me thinks someone gunna be on a clear lead.

 

From what I've read, Baffert just gunna let sinister go no matter what. So is that the pick are are the sharpies out there liking a deep closer better. If so, who is that? Haven't picked up a form yet, so just looking for some opinions.

 

BTW, outside with a grilled Shalens and some Aunt Rosies, 80 degress no humididty, this unemployed chit aint so bad

683654[/snapback]

 

I have been following the 3YO's quite closely, even since last year. There is definitely a lot of talent in this year's race, more so than in the previous years. Should the top 6-7 horses in the Derby all run in the Preakness and Belmont, I do not see a triple crown happening. It would take a big time horse (with some big-time luck) to beat the other 5-6 top horses three straight times.

 

You're right plenzmd, Baffert will send Sinister Minister to the front no matter what. Sweetnorthernsaint will be there also. I see Lawyer Ron and Brother Derek rating off the pace, with Derek probably making his move sooner rather than later. I could see Bob and John in the mix but he doesn't have the last 1/4 mile, IMO.

 

It's a tough race to handicap. Brother Derek is definitely the class of the race- he was superb against top competition when he won the Santa Anita Derby. His jockey shook the reins at him at the top of the stretch, and boom he was gone! Never whipped once and he won driving away. Lawyer Ron (won six straight) and Barbaro (undefeated lifetime) are not far behind.

 

My major play will probably be a trifecta bet, boxing four horses: Brother Derek (3/1) and Lawyer Ron (4/1) for speed, Point Determined (12/1) as a stalker, and Steppenwolfer (30/1) as a closer. If Steppenwolfer can settle in, he has a huge closing kick. The trouble might be staying close enough early on, but that's why I'd throw him in a trifecta- even if he's buried, I think he could still get up and steal 3rd. He could be serious value if he goes off at 30/1. There I just jinxed him.

 

On the side, A.P. Warrior has the pedigree to go the distance and could be a value bet at 15/1.

[Ghost of BiB]

I've been to the Derby a couple times. Was stationed at Ft. Knox, was just up the road.

 

Maybe there is a lot of money there, but it's also a really poor handicap scenario. Go for the experience.

 

I seriously recommend buying an infield pass, and go for the hell of it. If you really like horse racing - the Kentucky Derby is pretty cool, and really doesn't cost that much, compared to other sports.

 

Wonderful time, many layers of flavors. As far as ambience, America doesn't have too many traditions left, unless they are in Chinese or Spanish.

[Like A Mofo]

Wonderful time, many layers of flavors. As far as ambience, America doesn't have too many traditions left, unless they are in Chinese or Spanish.

683755[/snapback]

 

 

Sad but true

[plenzmd1]

I've been to the Derby a couple times. Was stationed at Ft. Knox, was just up the road.

 

Maybe there is a lot of money there, but it's also a really poor handicap scenario. Go for the experience.

 

I seriously recommend buying an infield pass, and go for the hell of it. If you really like horse racing - the Kentucky Derby is pretty cool, and really doesn't cost that much, compared to other sports.

 

Wonderful time, many layers of flavors. As far as ambience, America doesn't have too many traditions left, unless they are in Chinese or Spanish.

683755[/snapback]

 

Speaking of Chinese, wouldn't get me in the infield at the Derby or Preakness for all the tea in.....

 

So smokin, Steepin the closer eh?

[Like A Mofo]

here's my pick:

 

$1 Trifecta Key: 18 with the 4 6 and 10

[The Poojer]

This horse is a winner. His father was a mudder, his mother was a mudder..... His mother was a mudder??

What did i just say!!!

 

 

 

Must admit, have not been following the three yr olds very closely. Seems to me ton of speed in the race, but i think in my own fuuged up way thats gunna help the BEST speed horse. These jocks and trainers sometimes outhink themselves, and with the consensus being a suicidal spped dual up front, me thinks someone gunna be on a clear lead.

 

From what I've read, Baffert just gunna let sinister go no matter what. So is that the pick are are the sharpies out there liking a deep closer better. If so, who is that? Haven't picked up a form yet, so just looking for some opinions.

 

BTW, outside with a grilled Shalens and some Aunt Rosies, 80 degress no humididty, this unemployed chit aint so bad

683654[/snapback]

[KD in CA]

I have been following the 3YO's quite closely, even since last year.  There is definitely a lot of talent in this year's race, more so than in the previous years.  Should the top 6-7 horses in the Derby all run in the Preakness and Belmont, I do not see a triple crown happening.  It would take a big time horse (with some big-time luck) to beat the other 5-6 top horses three straight times.

 

You're right plenzmd, Baffert will send Sinister Minister to the front no matter what.  Sweetnorthernsaint will be there also.  I see Lawyer Ron and Brother Derek rating off the pace, with Derek probably making his move sooner rather than later.  I could see Bob and John in the mix but he doesn't have the last 1/4 mile, IMO.

 

It's a tough race to handicap.  Brother Derek is definitely the class of the race- he was superb against top competition when he won the Santa Anita Derby.  His jockey shook the reins at him at the top of the stretch, and boom he was gone!  Never whipped once and he won driving away.  Lawyer Ron (won six straight) and Barbaro (undefeated lifetime) are not far behind.

 

My major play will probably be a trifecta bet, boxing four horses: Brother Derek (3/1) and Lawyer Ron (4/1) for speed, Point Determined (12/1) as a stalker, and Steppenwolfer (30/1) as a closer.  If Steppenwolfer can settle in, he has a huge closing kick.  The trouble might be staying close enough early on, but that's why I'd throw him in a trifecta- even if he's buried, I think he could still get up and steal 3rd.  He could be serious value if he goes off at 30/1.  There I just jinxed him.

 

On the side, A.P. Warrior has the pedigree to go the distance and could be a value bet at 15/1.

683723[/snapback]

 

Nice, thanks for the review!

[Albany,n.y.]

There are a lot of contenders. I see no standout. The Oaks/Derby DD and p-3s may be the best shots for multiple chances

In the Oaks its either 7) Wonder Lady Anne L or 8) Wait a While, with 12) Ermine having a slight chance. I don't like Balance because I think the Cal fillies are a bad bunch & Balance was exposed in her last as such. In the Derby my top horse is 8) Barbaro, but its not a major endorsement. Other contenders include 5)Point Determined-who I would have liked more but has received negative clocker comments for his gallops and failure to change leads since he got to CD. 7) Bob and John, 10) AP Warrior, 16) Cause to Believe-also getting negative clocker comments but a contender on paper having beaten Sinister Minister & AP Warrior in NoCal. and 18) Brother Derek.

If you like pick 3s on Derby day 7)Behaving Badly looks good in the 8th race and 3)Cacique looks good in the 9th.

[Cornerville]

Here is the BEST pick of them all!!!!

 

Guaranteed winner from a BIG time expert!!!!!

 

He speaks!!!

[OGTEleven]

I purposely do not study too much before the Racing Form for the Derby comes out. This way I don't fall in love with a horse and chase him.

 

With that said, I always at least see some things before I read the form. My pre-form analysis is:

 

I agree with whoever said sometimes a horse gets loose in a race packed with speed but I'm going to take my chances with that.

 

I think Brother Derek has a ton of quality

I'm not yet sold on Bob and John or Barbaro but that could change

I like what I've read about AP Warrior

If you're looking for a real bomber don't give up on Deputy Glitters.

[plenzmd1]

16) Cause to Believe-also getting negative clocker comments but a contender on paper having beaten Sinister Minister & AP Warrior in NoCal. and If you like pick 3s on Derby day 7)Behaving Badly looks good in the 8th race and 3)Cacique looks good in the 9th.

683991[/snapback]

 

allright, this guy is in now just because of his name. The Sabres are really giving me "Cause to belive " they can win the cup this year!!!!!!!!!

[smokinandjokin]

So smokin, Steepin the closer eh?

683767[/snapback]

 

From what I've seen of him (two races) he was thundering down the lane both times. Lawyer Ron is a class horse, and Steppenwolfer has lost to him three times. However, if any of those races was 1 1/4 miles, instead of 7F or 1 1/8, Steppen would've had him.

 

The front runners have been good in the Derby preps, but they have been able to get to the lead uncontested and have a clean trip. With 20 horses, you will have to battle to get the lead, and with the class in the race, Brother Derek, Ron, and Barbaro aren't going to let an early speed horse run away with it.

 

Obviously luck plays a huge part, but if the Wolfer can settle in at about 6th or 7th, he will be there at the end. He seems as primed as any horse I've seen to run the 1 1/4. Might not win, but if you throw him in your trifecta and he grabs 3rd, at 30/1 he will add some coin.

 

Quotes from an article and his trainer:

 

Steppenwolfer lost to Lawyer Ron in their three confrontations in Arkansas.

 

It won't happen again Saturday in the Kentucky Derby, vows Danny Peitz, Steppenwolfer's trainer.

 

Peitz does not predict a Derby victory by his longshot closer. But Peitz is confident the tables will turn on Lawyer Ron at Churchill Downs.

 

The scenario was similar in the each leg of the three-stakes series at Oaklawn Park that culminated with the Arkansas Derby at 1 1-8 miles. Lawyer Ron raced on, or very close to the pace, to secure the three wins while Steppenwolfer dropped far back before launching rallies that got him two seconds and a third.

 

Now comes the Derby at 1 1/4 miles, a race full of speed horses with styles very similar to Lawyer Ron.

 

"In the horse-to-horse, head-to-head battle, I'm going to beat him this time because the whole dynamics of the race are going to be different," Peitz said. "This time, he's not going to get to the lead and relax. It's not like he's been beating me 20 lengths. He's been beating me two or three lengths where he had the advantage. Now he's going to be at the disadvantage."

[smokinandjokin]

By the way, in today's Kentucky Oaks (all female horses) I have to go with the 5/1 Bushfire. Clearly, Firebush would've been classic, but I still like it! I'm sure this horse will be the favorite of the redheaded ladies in the crowd today!

[plenzmd1]

From what I've seen of him (two races) he was thundering down the lane both times.  Lawyer Ron is a class horse, and Steppenwolfer has lost to him three times.  However, if any of those races was 1 1/4 miles, instead of 7F or 1 1/8, Steppen would've had him. 

 

The front runners have been good in the Derby preps, but they have been able to get to the lead uncontested and have a clean trip.  With 20 horses, you will have to battle to get the lead, and with the class in the race, Brother Derek, Ron, and Barbaro aren't going to let an early speed horse run away with it.

 

Obviously luck plays a huge part, but if the Wolfer can settle in at about 6th or 7th, he will be there at the end.  He seems as primed as any horse I've seen to run the 1 1/4.  Might not win, but if you throw him in your trifecta and he grabs 3rd, at 30/1 he will add some coin.

 

Quotes from an article and his trainer:

684201[/snapback]

 

allright that settles it, Sinister, steppen, Cause to believe at least worth $1 tri box and $2 exacta, leaves $88 to play.

 

BTW, anybody knows, cause I'm to lazy to look, if there will be .10 supers on the derby? Man those things are like the greatest bar bet ever invented. 5 guys, $5 bucks a piece, 250 bets, waa hoo!!!!!!

[smokinandjokin]

allright that settles it, Sinister, steppen, Cause to believe at least worth $1 tri box and $2 exacta, leaves $88 to play.

 

BTW, anybody knows, cause I'm to lazy to look, if there will be .10 supers on the derby? Man those things are like the greatest bar bet ever invented. 5 guys, $5 bucks a piece, 250 bets, waa hoo!!!!!!

684301[/snapback]

 

Good luck plenzmd! Leaving the favorites out is never a bad move at the KD, last favorite to win was Spectacular Bid in 1979. Should be a great race to watch, with some front running early speed, tactical decisions by the favorites on the backside as to how close they stay to the front, and some longshots with a big stretch kick on a track that favors closers...Most exciting two minutes in sports!!!

 

Don't rip your tickets early...Giacomo at 50/1 was 18th rounding the first turn last year...

[ieatcrayonz]

I love that old song Red Eye Love so I like Steppenwolfer but I really think Barbaro will run away from them. He is the one stalker who is better than the rest. I think Bluegrass Cat is underrated after a bad race in his last. Pletcher has Keyed entry in there as a rabbit for him. The only other decent closer is Jazil. My picks are:

 

1. Barbaro

2. Bluegrass Cat

3. Steppenwolfer

 

4. Jazil

 

I will box the exacta with all 4 and the triple with the top 3. I will play $1 Supers like this:

 

1. Barbaro (1)

2. BG Cat & Stepp (2)

3. BGCat/Step/Jazil (2)

4. All (17)

 

$68

 

I will play a $5 Super

 

1. Barbaro (1)

2. BG Cat & Stepp (2)

3. BGCat/Step/Jazil (2)

4. BGCat/Step/Jazil (1)

 

$20

[OGTEleven]

Here's what I have:

 

In my top tier I'm going to play (in order of preference)

 

AP Warrior, Brother Derek, Deputy Glitters

 

My second tier (also in order) is:

 

Steppenwolfer, Bob and John, Point Determined, Sweetnorthernsaint, Private Vow, Storm Treasure, Cause to Believe

 

The Derby is all about value which is why I have Deputy Glitters in my top tier. He will certainly be about 50-1 and he is underrated. He could run dead last but is a value for 50-1 if he runs his race. I'll use all of the horses in my top tier.

 

From my second tier I will only bet the horses (in exotics) that I think present a value after seeing the odds. I put them in sequence of which I think will show the best value. I'll only use a few of them in actual bets.

 

The year Monarchos won I hit the exacta by using Invisible Ink second. He was an outsider with potential and he ran his best race. He was 50-1. The exacta paid big ($1200). You can't cover all the angles, so you might as well cover a few high paying ones. Good luck all.

[smokinandjokin]

  You can't cover all the angles, so you might as well cover a few high paying ones.  Good luck all.

684503[/snapback]

 

No doubt Eleven, especially at the Derby. Finding that fringe horse to include in your Ex's and Tri's at a huge price can pay off if they can sneak into 2nd or 3rd. I was on fire one weekend at Saratoga last summer, boxing exactas with a ~5/1 and a ~14/1. They were coming in all weekend, and that makes the bars at night that much better!

 

The only problem with the longshots at the Derby is that they do require the perfect trip and really need to save as much ground as possible. A great horse will overcome some of the obstacles like traffic, bumps, and the distance, but if a 50/1 shot goes 7-wide around the first turn, you can pretty much count him out.

[OGTEleven]

The only problem with the longshots at the Derby is that they do require the perfect trip and really need to save as much ground as possible.  A great horse will overcome some of the obstacles like traffic, bumps, and the distance, but if a 50/1 shot goes 7-wide around the first turn, you can pretty much count them out.

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Sometimes in the Derby the longshots are actually high quality horses that have just been pointed correctly. Unbridled and Alysheba come to mind. They weren't super long but they fit the Derby real well. Sometimes the prep winners have no business going a mile and a quarter and end up 4-1. See Mr. Frisky.

 

That's why i like AP Warrior a bit. His style was a bad fit in the SA Derby but will likely be a good fit tomorrow.

 

I will buy the notion that closers need some racing luck. That is always true in the Derby (Sea Hero is a good example).