Ozymandius Posted May 3, 2006 Posted May 3, 2006 Below is a list of first round draft picks that should at least be good even if they don't become great. How do you determine that kind of thing? I think six factors are important: (1) The position they play. There will be no QB's on this list, for example (2) Injury history/potential (3) Did they make a lot of plays in college, or were they drafted more on measurables/potential? (4) Work ethic (alleged, from news articles and coaches quotes) (5) Size/speed for their position (6) Did they look good because they played on a great team, with great teammates? The List --------- 1. Mario Williams 2. Reggie Bush 4. D'Brick 5. AJ Hawk 6. Vernon Davis 7. Michael Huff 8. Donte Whitner (if he stays healthy, he'll make plays all over the field) 17. Chad Greenway 18. Bobby Carpenter 21. Laurence Maroney 23. Davin Joseph 24. Johnathan Joseph 29. Nick Mangold That's 13 players total, or less than half the first round, who are very likely to at least be good players in this league. I consider the other players to have decent to good bustability factors for one reason or another. Why doesn't John McCargo make the list? He's a good prospect and was NOT a reach but he's still a defensive tackle (a high bust position), he had that stress fracture in the foot, and while he made plays in college, he was not consistently dominant and we're drafting him partly on his potential (extreme quickness off the snap).
Chilly Posted May 3, 2006 Posted May 3, 2006 Below is a list of first round draft picks that should at least be good even if they don't become great. How do you determine that kind of thing? I think five factors are important:(1) The position they play. There will be no QB's on this list, for example (2) Injury history/potential (3) Did they make a lot of plays in college, or were they drafted more on measurables/potential? (4) Work ethic (alleged, from news articles and coaches quotes) (5) Size/speed for their position The List --------- 1. Mario Williams 2. Reggie Bush 4. D'Brick 5. AJ Hawk 6. Vernon Davis 7. Michael Huff 8. Donte Whitner (if he stays healthy, he'll make plays all over the field) 16. Jason Allen 17. Chad Greenway 18. Bobby Carpenter 21. Laurence Maroney 23. Davin Joseph 24. Johnathan Joseph 29. Nick Mangold That's 14 players total, or less than half the first round, who are very likely to at least be good players in this league. I consider the other players to have decent to good bustability factors for one reason or another. Why doesn't John McCargo make the list? He's a good prospect and was NOT a reach but he's still a defensive tackle (a high bust position), he had that stress fracture in the foot, and while he made plays in college, he was not consistently dominant and we're drafting him partly on his potential (extreme quickness off the snap). 681980[/snapback] Wait, you didn't put Vince on the list?
Yoho Posted May 3, 2006 Posted May 3, 2006 I am sure you will miss on at least 7 of them. It is just the way it is.
Dibs Posted May 3, 2006 Posted May 3, 2006 Hey Ozy....what happened on draft day? You guaranteed me Ngata to the Bills was a done deal. What happened?
Ozymandius Posted May 3, 2006 Author Posted May 3, 2006 I am sure you will miss on at least 7 of them. It is just the way it is. 681989[/snapback] At least 7? Nah. Two or three of them will probably bust, one will probably have a career hampered by injury, but this was a great draft. and there are more close-to-sure-things than usual in this year's first round. The odds are helped out dramatically by a tremendous top of the draft this year.
BuffBills#1 Posted May 3, 2006 Posted May 3, 2006 I could see Allen, Carpenter, and D'Brick not panning out.
Ozymandius Posted May 3, 2006 Author Posted May 3, 2006 Hey Ozy....what happened on draft day?You guaranteed me Ngata to the Bills was a done deal. What happened? 681997[/snapback] Two really bad assumptions by me. (1) that Marv won't play draft "games" with the media ( http://www.buffalobills.com/news/news.jsp?news_id=3743 )... TOTALLY WRONG, and (2) never seriously thought we'd draft a safety
buffaloboyinATL Posted May 3, 2006 Posted May 3, 2006 I could see Allen, Carpenter, and D'Brick not panning out. 682003[/snapback] Allen definitely has to be considered an injury risk until he proves otherwise.
stuckincincy Posted May 3, 2006 Posted May 3, 2006 Two really bad assumptions by me. (1) that Marv won't play draft "games" with the media ( http://www.buffalobills.com/news/news.jsp?news_id=3743 )... TOTALLY WRONG, and (2) never seriously thought we'd draft a safety 682005[/snapback] Don't feel bad...my Bills 3rd and 4th round pre-draft choices - Guard Setterstrom and DE Eric Henderson were signed yesterday...to practice squads.
Tortured Soul Posted May 3, 2006 Posted May 3, 2006 Ozy- See TMQ's piece on teammates improving each other's draft position. I think you should include that on your list of factors.
Ozymandius Posted May 3, 2006 Author Posted May 3, 2006 Allen definitely has to be considered an injury risk until he proves otherwise. 682379[/snapback] Good point, I removed him.
Ozymandius Posted May 3, 2006 Author Posted May 3, 2006 Ozy-See TMQ's piece on teammates improving each other's draft position. I think you should include that on your list of factors. 682388[/snapback] True. I want to see what Matt Leinart does under pressure.
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