Upon further review - Bills play it safe

[GG]

You can't go five minutes without hearing that Bills under and over reached for their first 2 picks. The rationale are the countless pre-draft slotting grades that everyone put out. But those publications have the luxury of not worrying about filling a roster with real players and taking in the realistic concern of what the other 31 teams would do.

 

So, if you are the Bills and have an offer on the table from Denver to move down, and pick up an extra draft choice, you look at the value chart only relative to the player that you are targeting.

 

Based on the Bills pick, it's obvious that Huff was target #1, followed closely by Whitner, since it appears that Bills were more nervous about their Coy Wire situation than they were about their Larry Tripplet situation or the Mike Gandy situation.

 

If that's the case, then the guessing game for Bills would be if Whitner would still be on the board at #12, 13 or 15, which is where the trade ofers were coming from. Please look at Detroit's, Cleveland's & St. Louis's depth charts and say that there's no way one of those teams doesn't pick Whitner. You'll likely see Detroit picking SS in the second round, which is exactly the next safety picked after Whitner. Then do a ranking comparing Whitner to Daniel Bullocks.

 

Same decision for McCargo. The top 3 DTs were head and shoulders above the rest, and there's no way this guy gets by Oakland in Rd.2. No DTs were taken in Rd. 2.

 

Bills played it safe, and I can't really fault them for it.

[MadBuffaloDisease]

I said this in another thread, but based on Marv's comments earlier this week about the guy they liked being available until about the 12th pick, that leads me to believe that Whitner is who they really liked, not Huff, since Huff was a top-10 pick. Again I still don't like the idea of taking a safety that high, but if that's who they wanted, and their words seem to indicate that, I can live with it and support it.

[Bill from NYC]

I agree. Ralph wants to play it safe make sure that if you take away McCargo, all of the Bills picks can fit in the back seat of his Ford Taurus.

This draft is nothing short of a disgrace.

[Astrobot]

Thank you.

 

Wonderful post. I was already feeling pretty good about our picks. I visited the Bills website and watched the videos where Marv, Dick and Tom explained their picks. I watched the videos of these draft picks actually playing football. And now I've read your post. Good for the soul. I've cut down the noose.

[Ozymandius]

I said this in another thread, but based on Marv's comments earlier this week about the guy they liked being available until about the 12th pick, that leads me to believe that Whitner is who they really liked, not Huff, since Huff was a top-10 pick.  Again I still don't like the idea of taking a safety that high, but if that's who they wanted, and their words seem to indicate that, I can live with it and support it.

677848[/snapback]

I agree. Whitner was the target all along and it seems like we did a good job keeping him a secret.

[RayFinkle]

I agree. Ralph wants to play it safe make sure that if you take away McCargo, all of the Bills picks can fit in the back seat of his Ford Taurus.

This draft is nothing short of a disgrace.

677857[/snapback]

Another year of glossing over the OL woes. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

[GG]

One name that's not being mentioned with regards to Whitner is Mike Brown.

 

Please rewind the playback machine to when Chicago reached for the Mike Brown pick, when Jauron was there, and what impact Brown has had on that defense ever since.

 

I have to disagree with Dwight Adams on this one. The days of waiting until the last 15 picks in 1st round to tag a game-breaking safety are long gone.

[Coach Tuesday]

I find it hilarious that, had the Bills picked Winston Justice at #8 (or even had they traded down a few spots and taken him at 13-14), all of the "pundits" would be talking about how great a pick it was. Just shows that the draft is totally subjective, and the so-called "experts" have no clue what they're talking about half the time.

[AJ1]

I agree. Ralph wants to play it safe make sure that if you take away McCargo, all of the Bills picks can fit in the back seat of his Ford Taurus.

This draft is nothing short of a disgrace.

677857[/snapback]

 

 

still in the running for the sourpuss of draft weekend award. Keep up the good work.

[Lurker]

I have to disagree with Dwight Adams on this one.  The days of waiting until the last 15 picks in 1st round to tag a game-breaking safety are long gone.

677976[/snapback]

 

I'd go as far to say that Safety has become on par--if not more important, in some cases--than CB, with more teams going to zone and Cover 2 defenses. The safety position is becoming a whole lot more involved in the game and their draft value has increased proportionately.

[Coach Tuesday]

I'd go as far to say that Safety has become on par--if not more important, in some cases--than CB, with more teams going to zone and Cover 2 defenses.  The safety position is becoming a whole lot more involved in the game and their draft value has increased proportionately.

677993[/snapback]

 

Especially safeties who can run. (Bye, Coy.)

[Rico]

You can't go five minutes without hearing that Bills under and over reached for their first 2 picks.  The rationale are the countless pre-draft slotting grades that everyone put out.  But those publications have the luxury of not worrying about filling a roster with real players and taking in the realistic concern of what the other 31 teams would do.

 

So, if you are the Bills and have an offer on the table from Denver to move down, and pick up an extra draft choice, you look at the value chart only relative to the player that you are targeting. 

 

Based on the Bills pick, it's obvious that Huff was target #1, followed closely by Whitner, since it appears that Bills were more nervous about their Coy Wire situation than they were about their Larry Tripplet situation or the Mike Gandy situation.

 

If that's the case, then the guessing game for Bills would be if Whitner would still be on the board at #12, 13 or 15, which is where the trade ofers were coming from.  Please look at Detroit's, Cleveland's & St. Louis's depth charts and say that there's no way one of those teams doesn't pick Whitner.  You'll likely see Detroit picking SS in the second round, which is exactly the next safety picked after Whitner.  Then do a ranking comparing Whitner to Daniel Bullocks.

 

Same decision for McCargo.  The top 3 DTs were head and shoulders above the rest, and there's no way this guy gets by Oakland in Rd.2.  No DTs were taken in Rd. 2.

 

Bills played it safe, and I can't really fault them for it.

677642[/snapback]

Good post... though I'm still nervous though about the Bennie Anderson and Tim Anderson situations.

[jad1]

Actually I believe the opposite is true. This is an extemely risky draft for Marv.

 

In the first 3 rounds, where most teams draft their starters, he's drafted a starting safety, a DT that plays the same position as Larry Tripplett, and a nickel back. In other words, one every-down starter in 3 the first three rounds.

 

He could have had 5 picks in the first round, which would have let him address more positions than DB and DT.

 

By targetting specific players, he's completely neglected the offensive line in the draft.

 

There are multiple questions about his strategy. Was Whitner really in danger of being drafted in the top 15? Problaby not. Were Whitner and McCargo the only players left in the draft at their positions who fit into Jauron's defense? Probably not. Was the need for a nickel back more pressing than a guard or OT? Maybe, maybe not.

 

In following his strategy, Levy has locked in the starters on the O line. Will his FAs be better than Donahoe's? Will Peters continue to develop or turn into the next Robert Hicks? Who is the backup at tackle?

 

This is an extremely risky strategy. If the O line holds up and the young draft picks deliver, Marv will look like a genius. If not, look for another frustrating season of watching a QB merry-go-round, leading to huge questions going into next year's draft.

[AJ1]

Especially safeties who can run.  (Bye, Coy.)

677996[/snapback]

 

Does anybody recall Coy making a single play? Ever? Did he not bite an every single play-action thrown his way? This guy's play was way below terrible.

[Ray]

The more I read about these guys the happier I am with this draft. They needed major upgrading on the defensive side of the ball. It's hard to complain about smart, hard working, dedicated, talented players. I think they targeted guys with certain characteristics they like and went out and got them. I was disappointed at first too, but nobody knows how things will turn out and Whitner gives the Bills a lot of flexibility and is able to match up with talented TE. Our division has McDaniel and Watson remember!

Just give the draft time to play out. Vince Young with the third pick and paying him 7M a year to sit is plain bad value! Do you think Tennessee goes to the playoffs with him in the next 4 years while at the same time paying him huge cap money? QBs are bad value in the first round for what you get for the first 3-4 years. Going defense is not sexy, but stacking this team with quality players will pay off big I think.

[GG]

Actually I believe the opposite is true.  This is an extemely risky draft for Marv.

 

In the first 3 rounds, where most teams draft their starters, he's drafted a starting safety, a DT that plays the same position as Larry Tripplett, and a nickel back.  In other words, one every-down starter in 3 the first three rounds.

 

He could have had 5 picks in the first round, which would have let him address more positions than DB and DT. 

 

By targetting specific players, he's completely neglected the offensive line in the draft. 

 

There are multiple questions about his strategy.  Was Whitner really in danger of being drafted in the top 15?  Problaby not.  Were Whitner and McCargo the only players left in the draft at their positions who fit into Jauron's defense?  Probably not.  Was the need for a nickel back more pressing than a guard or OT?  Maybe, maybe not.

 

In following his strategy, Levy has locked in the starters on the O line.  Will his FAs be better than Donahoe's?  Will Peters continue to develop or turn into the next Robert Hicks?  Who is the backup at tackle?

 

This is an extremely risky strategy.  If the O line holds up and the young draft picks deliver, Marv will look like a genius.  If not, look for another frustrating season of watching a QB merry-go-round, leading to huge questions going into next year's draft.

678029[/snapback]

 

These are all valid questions, but we are not in any position to answer them without seeing the Bills's draft board. It's popular to wonder why the OL was ignored, but the one concensus about this draft was that DBrick was the only bonafide 1st Rd. OT. Would you feel better about a 1st round reach for a guy, who's probably no better than Gandy, or even Aaron Gibson? Eric Winston was projected as the 3rd best OT, and he lasts all the way to Rd 3? There's no way, no how a 3rd best OT lasts that late, unless the year for OLs is really crappy.

 

If you care more about the quantity of draft choices rather than quality, look at Bills' FA pick ups this year. There will be a lot of bodies in camp this year.

[jad1]

So do you believe that of the remaining players on the draft board, only Whitner and McCargo fit Jauron's defense?

 

Whitner is better than Allen and a 3rd rounder? or Williams and a 3rd rounder? Could they have kept their 3rd rounder and drafted Wroten in the 2nd round? Could they have traded up in the 3rd, spending a 4th or 5th to move up to take Wroten in 3rd? Is McCargo better than Justice and Wroten?

 

I like the players that Levy drafted, but thier apparent inflexiblity in targeting specific guys doesn't seem like a good strategy with needs at multiple positions. That's where the criticism is coming from.

 

Who knows. maybe the oline will be solid with the new FAs, and will be able to keep the QB upright all season. Maybe Losman and Nall will be judged on their own merits, and the Bills will have a solid #1 QB at the end of the season, and the improved defense will have the Bills on the right track. I hope so, because I really want to see Levy succeed.

 

 

You can't go five minutes without hearing that Bills under and over reached for their first 2 picks.  The rationale are the countless pre-draft slotting grades that everyone put out.  But those publications have the luxury of not worrying about filling a roster with real players and taking in the realistic concern of what the other 31 teams would do.

 

So, if you are the Bills and have an offer on the table from Denver to move down, and pick up an extra draft choice, you look at the value chart only relative to the player that you are targeting. 

 

Based on the Bills pick, it's obvious that Huff was target #1, followed closely by Whitner, since it appears that Bills were more nervous about their Coy Wire situation than they were about their Larry Tripplet situation or the Mike Gandy situation.

 

If that's the case, then the guessing game for Bills would be if Whitner would still be on the board at #12, 13 or 15, which is where the trade ofers were coming from.  Please look at Detroit's, Cleveland's & St. Louis's depth charts and say that there's no way one of those teams doesn't pick Whitner.  You'll likely see Detroit picking SS in the second round, which is exactly the next safety picked after Whitner.  Then do a ranking comparing Whitner to Daniel Bullocks.

 

Same decision for McCargo.  The top 3 DTs were head and shoulders above the rest, and there's no way this guy gets by Oakland in Rd.2.  No DTs were taken in Rd. 2.

 

Bills played it safe, and I can't really fault them for it.

677642[/snapback]

[jad1]

These are all valid questions, but we are not in any position to answer them without seeing the Bills's draft board.  It's popular to wonder why the OL was ignored, but the one concensus about this draft was that DBrick was the only bonafide 1st Rd. OT.  Would you feel better about a 1st round reach for a guy, who's probably no better than Gandy, or even Aaron Gibson?  Eric Winston was projected as the 3rd best OT, and he lasts all the way to Rd 3?  There's no way, no how a 3rd best OT lasts that late, unless the year for OLs is really crappy.

 

If you care more about the quantity of draft choices rather than quality, look at Bills' FA pick ups this year.  There will be a lot of bodies in camp this year.

678077[/snapback]

 

Seeing as how the Bills finished 5-11, and have serious questions at several positions, a quantity over quality strategy would be a good one.

 

I never made the argument that the Bills should reach for a o-lineman in the first round. My argument is that they stockpile picks in the 3rd round to catch those players that fall at multiple positions.

 

By trading back in the 1st round, Whitner might be gone, but Jason Allen and Jimmy Williams are still there. These guys might have more questions than Whitner, but if they do work out, the Bills have an extra 3rd pick to possibly catch a falling Eric Winston.

 

If the Bills only area of need is defense, this is an outstanding draft. And maybe, with the Bills signings on the offensive side of the ball, that's the case.

 

We'll see as the season progresses. But if the Bills go into next season, and we're all still arguing if Losman is an NFL caliber QB or not ('it's not his fault, it's the line's'), the Bills will be in serious trouble.

[Fixxxer]

Does anybody recall Coy making a single play? Ever? Did he not bite an every single play-action thrown his way?  This guy's play was way below terrible.

678034[/snapback]

 

I remember when he broke Stewart's leg (detroit RB) in preseason, after that... nothing.

[dave mcbride]

One name that's not being mentioned with regards to Whitner is Mike Brown.

 

Please rewind the playback machine to when Chicago reached for the Mike Brown pick, when Jauron was there, and what impact Brown has had on that defense ever since.

 

I have to disagree with Dwight Adams on this one.  The days of waiting until the last 15 picks in 1st round to tag a game-breaking safety are long gone.

677976[/snapback]

yep - i'm with you on this one. a top notch safety makes a big difference.