Round 1 (#26) Selection: DT John McCargo

[MDH]

That is something we do not know.

 

The only people who are laughing at the picks are media heads who are guessing as to where players are slotted.

 

The actual teams who are selecting the players don't advertise their real intentions.

 

Both of these players fit the system and will out perform where the "experts' projected them to be drafted.

675692[/snapback]

 

These guys have a pretty good idea of how the league values most of these players. They speak with GMs, coaches and scouts daily. It's how they're able to give a pretty accurate value to each player. They won't be able to pick exactly where the players go but they're good at projecting the general area they'll be selected in.

[gravytrain]

more importantly why is the clock on this site an hour off?

[Offside Number 76]

Let me get something straight here...so the Bills dealt their 2nd AND a 3rd to move up for this guy???

675637[/snapback]

 

No. They dealt their 3rd to use their 2nd earlier.

[shaka]

These guys have a pretty good idea of how the league values most of these players.  They speak with GMs, coaches and scouts daily.  It's how they're able to give a pretty accurate value to each player.  They won't be able to pick exactly where the players go but they're good at projecting the general area they'll be selected in.

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yeah they hit the nail on the head with Tom Brady, Huh?

[Offside Number 76]

yeah they hit the nail on the head with Tom Brady, Huh?

675790[/snapback]

In terms of when he was selected as opposed to when he was predicted to be selected? They probably did. That's the only issue here.

[Cornerville]

more importantly why is the clock on this site an hour off?

675777[/snapback]

 

 

Because Marv is drafting from a cargo somewhere in the Atlantic Ocean

[shaka]

In terms of when he was selected as opposed to when he was predicted to be selected?  They probably did.  That's the only issue here.

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well if they think he fits into their scheme, why not get the guy they think will help. i think too much is put on predictions, new england proved you don't have to have household names to win super bowls.

[Billsguy]

Qualified approval...he felt 8 was to high.  But Whittner was gone at 9 if the Bills didn't take him.

 

PTR

675599[/snapback]

 

 

Reminds me how the Bills "stole" Ryan Denney one pick before Pittsburgh. How did that work out?

[/dev/null]

Reminds me how the Bills "stole" Ryan Denney one pick before Pittsburgh. How did that work out?

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Ryan Denney is still with the Bills. The players Pittsburgh had to settle for is no longer a Steeler.

 

Yeah, that was the closest thing to something positive I could come up with on taking Denney instead of Randel'El

[MDH]

yeah they hit the nail on the head with Tom Brady, Huh?

675790[/snapback]

 

You obviously don't understand the issue here. It has nothing whatsoever to do with how good a player ends up being.

[Offside Number 76]

well if they think he fits into their scheme, why not get the guy they think will help.  i think too much is put on predictions, new england proved you don't have to have household names to win super bowls.

675823[/snapback]

 

It's not a question of who the Bills picked but rather what they spent. The folks complaining about the McCargo pick aren't stating that he's a bad player or a bad fit, but that maybe the Bills didn't need to trade the 3rd-round pick to move up to take him.

 

If New England had spent a No. 1 pick on Brady, knowing then what we knew THEN, they would have overpaid because Brady would have been available in later rounds.

[MDH]

It's not a question of who the Bills picked but rather what they spent.  The folks complaining about the McCargo pick aren't stating that he's a bad player or a bad fit, but that maybe the Bills didn't need to trade the 3rd-round pick to move up to take him.

 

If New England had spent a No. 1 pick on Brady, knowing then what we knew THEN, they would have overpaid because Brady would have been available in later rounds.

675859[/snapback]

 

Exactly. If the Bills have McCargo as the 20th best player in the draft and the rest of the league has him at roughly the 50th it's a mistake to take him in the first round, period. Even if McCargo ends up being the 20th best player in the draft. A team has to understand a player's value and that value is determined by how the entire league rates a player.

 

The thing is I don't think the Bills have misunderstood the player values (it's not a tough concept after all). I think they've made the mistake of having very specific players they want and they're throwing value out the window to get them because they don't feel comfortable with the other players that they have rated similarly. A team absolutely cannot go into the draft saying, "We HAVE to have THIS player!"

[KOKBILLS]

It's not a question of who the Bills picked but rather what they spent.  The folks complaining about the McCargo pick aren't stating that he's a bad player or a bad fit, but that maybe the Bills didn't need to trade the 3rd-round pick to move up to take him.

 

If New England had spent a No. 1 pick on Brady, knowing then what we knew THEN, they would have overpaid because Brady would have been available in later rounds.

675859[/snapback]

 

Well...

 

Pick # 26 - Trade Value 700

 

Pick's # 42 and #73 - Trade Value 705 combined

 

So the compensation was about right...

[Offside Number 76]

Well...

 

Pick # 26 - Trade Value 700

 

Pick's # 42 and #73 - Trade Value 705 combined

 

So the compensation was about right...

675893[/snapback]

 

Not if McCargo was available for "trade value" 500.

[BuffaloBob]

It's not a question of who the Bills picked but rather what they spent.  The folks complaining about the McCargo pick aren't stating that he's a bad player or a bad fit, but that maybe the Bills didn't need to trade the 3rd-round pick to move up to take him.

 

If New England had spent a No. 1 pick on Brady, knowing then what we knew THEN, they would have overpaid because Brady would have been available in later rounds.

675859[/snapback]

Overpaid according to whom? Had they realized that he was that good notwithstanding everyone else's assessment, it would have made them smart. The only issue then becomes, how long to wait given that your assumption is that no one else sees what you see. It certainly isn't because you failed to undervalue him like everyone else.

 

The issue with any player, is whether the value assessment is accurate. If the Bills give McCargo a late first round draft grade, and he turns out to play at that level or better, the only complaint you can have is that they should have waited to get him as a steal because no one else gave him a high grade and thus they could have had him cheaper. Only thing is, you have no idea whether another team ahead of the Bills also graded him that high, and I would assume that the Bills had some intelligence that another team was targeting him as well.

 

Do you really think that had the Bills thought he would have been there at their #2 that they would have traded picks to move up?

[BuffaloBob]

Not if McCargo was available for "trade value" 500.

675899[/snapback]

Do you know he was going to be?

[Offside Number 76]

Overpaid according to whom?  Had they realized that he was that good notwithstanding everyone else's assessment, it would have made them smart.  The only issue then becomes, how long to wait given that your assumption is that no one else sees what you see.  It certainly isn't because you failed to undervalue him like everyone else.

 

The issue with any player, is whether the value assessment is accurate.  If the Bills give McCargo a late first round draft grade, and he turns out to play at that level or better, the only complaint you can have is that they should have waited to get him as a steal because no one else gave him a high grade and thus they could have had him cheaper.  Only thing is, you have no idea whether another team ahead of the Bills also graded him that high, and I would assume that the Bills had some intelligence that another team was targeting him as well.

 

Do you really think that had the Bills thought he would have been there at their #2 that they would have traded picks to move up?

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To answer your question, no. I'm just explaining the argument; I'm not rendering judgment.

[Offside Number 76]

Do you know he was going to be?

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No. Maybe I need to clarify. I don't really care one way or the other. The Bills spent a 3rd-round pick to use their 2nd-round pick roughly 14 spots earler. Not a big deal. Some ARE complaining; I'm just explaining the complaints.

[MDH]

Do you know he was going to be?

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Do you know he wasn't? We can go round and round all day with this. There's enough information out there to make an educated guess. That guess suggests that he'd be there at 42. If he wasn't, so what? You can't target specific players and go out of your way to make sure you select them. You have to have faith that your scouting department is good and let the draft come to you. The only way you trade up to select a player is if there is overwhelming evidence that multiple teams have that player targeted. Based on the info out there it doesn't seem like that was the case.

[Offside Number 76]

Do you know he wasn't?  We can go round and round all day with this.  There's enough information out there to make an educated guess.  That guess suggests that he'd be there at 42.  If he wasn't, so what?  You can't target specific players and go out of your way to make sure you select them.  You have to have faith that your scouting department is good and let the draft come to you.  The only way you trade up to select a player is if there is overwhelming evidence that multiple teams have that player targeted.  Based on the info out there it doesn't seem like that was the case.

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My lack of this information is exactly why I'm not critical of the decision, but if you're right that there weren't a lot of teams targeting him, then you're also right that it was a poor decision. And dead-on about not targeting one player (unless the team has a #1-3 overall pick or something).