DT or OT in Round 1

[obie_wan]

 

Huff also is a reasonable choice if we make it. but given that safeties rarely go as high as #8 and the general sense this is a pretty strong draft at S, if Huff is the best choice my advice is to trade down because we can find a player better than Wire further down and we need the help anyway.

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Although traditoinal safeties don't get drafted in the top 10, CBs do.

 

Huff is not a pure safety.

 

He is good enough to play corner.

 

He provides the defense with an answer to the elite TE like Henry Jones did.

 

He can also provide coverage on slot receivers from the safety spot out of the base defense.

 

And in Marv's world, DBs are the one position that provide immediate productions from nickle formations and special teams, if he's not good enough to start (which is unlikely).

[Ozymandius]

In addition, to these holes, there are also some positions where output was unacceptable last year but the prospects for player development on the roster probably make this a low priority.  These positions include:

1. LG- Anderson was essentially inadequate last year, but some feel his play in the last 5 or so games indicates he is coming toward the form we expected when we gave him a pretty good FA deal.  In addition, Preston has now been moved on the depth chart to back-up LG and unless this was done as some smoke for the draft I suspect he will pressure Anderson for the starter job.

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Don't kid yourself. LG is a huge priority. Bennie is fat and stupid. He can maul at the point of attack but he's so bad at everything else it doesn't matter.

 

2. RG- Villarial is set as the starter, but he began to show that the many years that have made him a solid player also resulted in some nicks knocking him out of a few games.  His back-ups are wishes if anything and we may be looking for a G who is flexible enough to back-up and be trained at RG or pressure Anderson and Preston at LG.

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RG is a priority as well. We can maybe squeeze one more season out of Villarial. Maybe. Guards, guards, guards - not at all "low priority"

 

3. TE- Output was inadequate leading to a cut of whathisname (how soon we forget when they are gone). However, the acquisition of Royal, the it is to be hoped development of Euhus, the it is to be hoped development of Everett, and the prescence of Neufeld as a flexible back-up and the pipedream hopes for Cieslak make this position pretty full.

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I can buy that TE is low priority but the reasoning isn't that we have adequate players there. It's more that we have signed a glut of receivers, indicating 4-wide sets, typical for the Rams offense, and a small role for the TE in the passing game.

 

4. QB- 05 production was unacceptable, but given that the options for someone to develop are Losman (the Bills still have hope), Holcomb (a solid back-up who has never been a consistent starter anywhere is the likely #2 with little chance of being a starter because there is no way he is the Bills QB of the future), Nall (an interesting longshot to start) and also Woodbury and Ochs the position is full.

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I hardly consider Nall an interesting longshot to start. I think he's actually the favorite and the one the braintrust wants to win the job. JMO.

 

In addition, there are positions which seem pretty locked up for us:

1. DEs- Schobel looks like the man at RE and Kelsay/Denny will duel with each other for LE and allow us to rotate.

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Cover 2 is all about rushing the passer with your 4-man front. DE is a first day priority because Kelsay/Denney are good against the run but not natural pass rushers.

 

3.  Tagging NC, the development of McGee, and Greer likely being pushed by Hill for  the nickel makes the CB slots set.

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It's actually King that will be pushed by Greer. King is our nickelback. He's an excellent cover corner in the slot. Who is Hill?

 

4. Hawk looks like a great player but if the unlikely happens and he somehow drops to #8 he ironically is a good player who if taken would likely set back the development of this team as it would not only force us to sit millions on our bench as a back-up, but leave us not using the #8 to reinforce the many holes on this roster.

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Ugh. Hawk steps right in and is a huge improvement over Posey, who could get cut and might save us money depending on his cap situation.

 

Some folks rag on Haloti mercilessly on this board, but because they have not seen him face to face to gauge whether the recent death of his Mom (word has it that unlike MW who suffered a meltdown when the Grammy who raised him died, Haloti has responded to these unfortunate events by working harder than he ever worked as a kid in school) and him entering the adult world has made a change in him to not go on vacation so much assessments by mere fans based on his college play strike me as pretty worthless compared to what the Bills braintrust will intuit from talking to him.

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What makes you think Marv has this "face to face, look him in the eye, gobbledygook" trick up his sleeve? How do you know Donahoe didn't employ the same skill in assessing Mike Williams? Is Marv just better at "looking someone in the eye" than Donahoe? What is this about judgements based on his college play being worthless? You said earlier in this post that Ngata had Pro Bowl potential - exactly how did you come to that conclusion if it wasn't his game film?

 

B. What the docs say is critical.  There are complaints of him suffering some recurring nagging injuries in his lower body.  The Bills docs proved their stuff making a great call on the ability of WM to recover physically.....

In addition, to outside commentators being easy to ignore about assessing his effort, they also are pretty easily ignored regarding health issues unless they are his doctors.

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Come again? When a player has a bunch of nagging injuries in college, the odds are pretty good that he'll have a bunch of nagging injuries in the pros, or at least the odds are greater than with a player with a clean history of health. That's not a freaking medical issue, it's common sense. A doctor can't prod and poke at a player to rule out nagging injuries occurring in the future. Doctors don't really come into play here on this durability issue unless they think Ngata is a good candidate to be custom-fit with bionic implants that make him more durable.

[Bill from NYC]

In addition, to these holes, there are also some positions where output was unacceptable last year but the prospects for player development on the roster probably make this a low priority.  These positions include:

 

1. LG- Anderson was essentially inadequate last year, but some feel his play in the last 5 or so games indicates he is coming toward the form we expected when we gave him a pretty good FA deal.  In addition, Preston has now been moved on the depth chart to back-up LG and unless this was done as some smoke for the draft I suspect he will pressure Anderson for the starter job.

 

2. RG- Villarial is set as the starter, but he began to show that the many years that have made him a solid player also resulted in some nicks knocking him out of a few games.  His back-ups are wishes if anything and we may be looking for a G who is flexible enough to back-up and be trained at RG or pressure Anderson and Preston at LG.

 

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Great post. Let me address the above points individually....

 

1) Although "some" posters feel that Anderson improved late in the season (I can only think of one poster), the fact that he absouluely sucked is clearly negated by the fact that Preston, who was drafted as a Center, is now listed as a backup LG.

He too sucked when he filled in at OG last year, but I wouldn't worry. Why should we? The LG position is clearly as you say.....a low priority.

 

2) Villarial was good (when healthy) in 04. Last year, he was a horror show. His age and injurues have taken their toll for sure, but again, why fret? If worse comes to worse, we could once again plug in Preston, despite the fact that he sucked last season at RG and is a natural center.

 

Drafting OGs in late rounds, and taking UDFAs has brought enabled us to watch the stellar performances of players such as Corey Hulsey, Jerry Ostroski, Jamie Nails, and other superstars.

Our UFAs have landed us heros such as Joe Panos, Bennie Anderson, and now we have a 450 pound whale, ready to swim in.

As a matter of fact, I cannot recall the Bills drafting a guard on day one since Ruben Brown, and all of our guards are either old, unproven, or flat out suck.

 

Could you tell us again how the OG position is a low priority?

[R. Rich]

Great post. Let me address the above points individually....

 

1) Although "some" posters feel that Anderson improved late in the season (I can only think of one poster), the fact that he absouluely sucked is clearly negated by the fact that Preston, who was drafted as a Center, is now listed as a backup LG.

  He too sucked when he filled in at OG last year, but I wouldn't worry. Why should we? The LG position is clearly as you say.....a low priority.

 

2) Villarial was good (when healthy) in 04. Last year, he was a horror show. His age and injurues have taken their toll for sure, but again, why fret? If worse comes to worse, we could once again plug in Preston, despite the fact that he sucked last season at RG and is a natural center.

 

Drafting OGs in late rounds, and taking UDFAs has brought enabled us to watch the stellar performances of players such as Corey Hulsey, Jerry Ostroski, Jamie Nails, and other superstars.

Our UFAs have landed us heros such as Joe Panos, Bennie Anderson, and now we have a 450 pound whale, ready to swim in.

As a matter of fact, I cannot recall the Bills drafting a guard on day one since Ruben Brown, and all of our guards are either old, unproven, or flat out suck.

 

Could you tell us again how the OG position is a low priority? 

664746[/snapback]

 

 

I did mention Latui in the 2nd round earlier. Of all the guard prospects, I think he has the most upside, meaning he hasn't come close to reaching his full potential yet. I think he'll be a heck of a pro, and I'd love to see the Bills draft him in round 2.

[Bill from NYC]

I did mention Latui in the 2nd round earlier. 

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He didn't.

[Ozymandius]

Deuce reminds me a bit too much of Fonoti and I'd consider him more a third or fourth round prospect. He's a mauler but not a dancing bear type with very good feet like Charles Spencer. Just my 2 cents.

[Bill from NYC]

I did mention Latui in the 2nd round earlier.  Of all the guard prospects, I think he has the most upside, meaning he hasn't come close to reaching his full potential yet.  I think he'll be a heck of a pro, and I'd love to see the Bills draft him in round 2.

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At today's prices, It is hard for me to imagine Ralph making a move at top free agent blockers. Hutchinson got the ball rolling in terms of crazy contracts for Guards, and the cap will go up next year, perhaps pushing the number even higher.

Rich, other than the draft, do you really think that we will be able to sign top UFAs at OG or worse yet, OT?

I look at the Bengals, and see stars at these positions. They (to my knowledge) were all drafted. Steinbach is a UFA in 07, and he will want and get Hutch money.

It almost worked for the Bengals. Who knows what would have happened if Palmer didn't go down? I want this to be our model of sorts. Both teams play in the cold and need to be bruising teams imo.

If you like Latui, I like Latui! I also like Setterstrom, and think that we should take them both. Betcha at least one of them can play.

[Ozymandius]

I think the two premier guards in this draft are Davin Joseph and Charles Spencer. Deuce and Jean-Gilles are on the next tier.

[R. Rich]

Deuce reminds me a bit too much of Fonoti and I'd consider him more a third or fourth round prospect.  He's a mauler but not a dancing bear type with very good feet like Charles Spencer.  Just my 2 cents.

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I like both Spencer and Lutui, but if given the choice, I'd go w/ Deuce. Deuce, since losing over 40 lbs, has seen his mobility improve tremendously, to the point where he is now noted for pulling and, when he does, looking to destroy whoever he sees. Great attitude, hard worker, and is still learning the position.

[R. Rich]

I think the two premier guards in this draft are Davin Joseph and Charles Spencer.  Deuce and Jean-Gilles are on the next tier.

664773[/snapback]

 

 

There's hardly a dropoff though. It's not like the OTs, where there's D'Brickashaw Ferguson, then a dropoff to Winston Justice, Eric Winston, and the others. Joseph, Spencer, Jean-Gilles and Lutui aren't separated by much.

[Pyrite Gal]

Don't kid yourself. LG is a huge priority. Bennie is fat and stupid. He can maul in runblocking but he's so bad at everything else it doesn't matter.

RG is a priority as well. We can maybe squeeze one more season out of Villarial. Maybe. Guards, guards, guards - not at all "low priority"

 

664723[/snapback]

 

 

 

Actually, I agree that LG is a priority which is why I would not consign this important need to such a speculatory Lotto resource as the draft, Good players do have to come from somewhere and good players get drafted. However, there is a huge wildcard of whether the player you want/need will be available at just that brief moment in time you have a choice which essentially makes the draft a place where beyond the first round and certainly the first day basically all you are talking about is speculatory development. Even among 1st rounders I have yet to see anything beyond oure opinion like a good statistical anaysis that your chance here are beyond 50/50. The popularity of fantasy leagues and our fan addiction to stats has really made the fan base place far too much emphasis on the draft as bein more than one tool for team building. If a need was low priority I would look to the draft. If its ahigh priority then I would look to FA where you are going after a proven vet to fill a specific need.

 

I think the best sign unfortunately that the Bills braintrust is not making a real run this year is the large cap room we built after a realtively quiet FA periord on our oart.

 

I can buy that TE is low priority but the reasoning isn't that we have adequate players there. It's more that we have signed a glut of receivers, indicating 4-wide sets, and a small role for the TE in the passing game.

 

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My guess is that Marv's priorities will remain stop the run and run the ball. I think there will be a relatively small role for the TE but for the most part because I think there will be a relatively small role for the passing game. The re-acquistion of Price interested me because perhaps there is a chance that Fairchild will try to replicate the high-flying Rams passing game. I doubt this though as a whole bunch of WRs would need to step up to make this happen. Parrish would need to develop, Price would need to recover, and Davis would have to be all that we hope (or Aiken or Reed show some production they have never shown),

 

I hardly consider Nall an interesting longshot to start. I think he's actually the favorite and the one the braintrust wants to win the job. JMO.

 

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I hope you are right that Nall is going to be great. However, I think there is no logical reason which the rest of us can see to assume or even give him much of a chance of being our QB of the future. Perhaps, if the Bills had for some reason given him a starter's contract then one could assume they view him as a starter. However, they signed him to a deal (and perhaps more important he and the market agreed to a deal) which pays him back-up money. Its legit for a fan to root for him to start ITHO, there is just no record beyond him doing a little mop-up work for the durable Brett Farve to base an opinion on. I think the primary morivation for the braintrust is Ralph's money and he has a ton wrapped up in JP who I suspect will get every chance to make it pay off for the boss.

 

 

Cover 2 is all about rushing the passer with your 4-man front. DE is a first day priority because Kelsay/Denney are good against the run but not natural pass rushers.

 

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Actually, Cover-2 is all about the coordination between a lot of pressure from the DL, getting great run/paa reads and palying them well from the LBs, and the CBs covering the WRs tight and the S's making great reads and covering a lot of space well playing centerfield and supporting the run stop. For anyone to focus all their attention on one unit to the exclusion of making sure we can play a balanced approah is a recipe to get burned.

 

Kelsay has not been all that great against the run from what I have seen, and actually has been more of a weapon against the pass because of his motor. This could be a breakout year for him if he develops a couple of great first moves that he can use to get more immediate pressure.

 

It's actually King that will be pushed by Greer. King is our nickelback. He's an excellent cover corner in the slot. Who is Hill?

 

664723[/snapback]

 

My mistake as I was rushing a bit as a conference call was ending. I meant King.

 

Ugh. Hawk steps right in and is a huge improvement over Posey, who could get cut and might save us money depending on his cap situation.

 

664723[/snapback]

 

 

I think we cut Posey anyway and Crowell likely steps into the SLB slot. He moved from being a back-up MLB to Fletch to being our first call at weakside when TKO got hurt and played OLB credibly enough to earn an extension when we were not forced to do so. My guess that though the Posey remains the starter on the deoth chart as long as TKO comes back that Crowell gets every opportunity to move him out.

 

Hawk is a great player who if added to a team which already is paying starter money to 4 LBs, adding the great contract a great player like Hawk will get will set development of a winning team back by a year as best as I can tell.

 

What makes you think Marv has this "face to face, look him in the eye, gobbledygook" trick up his sleeve? How do you know Donahoe didn't employ the same skill in assessing Mike Williams? Is Marv just better at "looking someone in the eye" than Donahoe? What is this about judgements based on his college play being worthless? You said earlier in this post that Ngata had Pro Bowl potential - exactly how did you come to that conclusion if it wasn't his game film?

Come again? When a player has a bunch of nagging injuries in college, the odds are pretty good that he'll have a bunch of nagging injuries in the pros, or at least the odds are greater than with a player with a clean history of health. That's not a freaking medical issue, it's common sense. A doctor can't prod and poke at a player to rule out nagging injuries occurring in the future. Doctors don't really come into play here on this durability issue unless they think Ngata is a good candidate to be custom-fit with bionic implants that make him more durable.

664723[/snapback]

 

Like I said, I think that Haloti only gets taken if the Bills see him as making a reality of what Parcells call the Planet Theiry.

 

I only think this will be true if they make the judgment that he will end the childish inconsistency he showed in college (I think there is actually a good chance of this given he is entering the adult working world now and given reports of his rectipns to the life altering event of his Mom dying. Maybe this will not be the events that get him to grow up much as Sam Adams finally grew up when the Bills got him, but i think there is a reasonable chance.

 

I think there is also the nagging injury issue and I dubt that the doctor's report will allow us to ignore this, however, there is the possibility. Believe me, we have seen a huge difference in the physical condition and injury impacts of players when they move from college to pro. There is simply a world of difference between the weight control, overall nutrition, stretching and work of a vet doing this for a living under the watchful eye of a fulltime strength and condidtioning expert and that of a college kid where athletic achievement provides the primary benefit of getting into some girls pants.

 

We have seen this time after time in the more obvious situation of recovery from traumatic college injury like WM and Thurman and also conditioning and weight control of someone like Bruce Smith.

 

There are also stories of negative conditioning stories like Ryan Leaf, but either way there is a big difference between college and pro life.

[Ozymandius]

---"I hope you are right that Nall is going to be great. However, I think there is no logical reason which the rest of us can see to assume or even give him much of a chance of being our QB of the future."

 

I never said that Nall is going to be great. I think he'll suck,actually. But I don't consider him a longshot for the job because my reading of things is that he's the hand-picked chosen one of the braintrust. If the race is close, Nall will get the nod. That's all I'm saying.

 

---"Actually, Cover-2 is all about the coordination between...blah blah"

 

Yes, for any defense, you would like to be solid in all areas. I'm not saying focus on the D-line at the exclusion of other areas. But in Cover 2, the one absolute necessity is getting pressure with your defensive linemen. We need a LDE.

 

---"I only think this will be true if they make the judgment that he will end the childish inconsistency he showed in college (I think there is actually a good chance of this given he is entering the adult"

 

That's a valid interpretation but I don't see it that way. I don't view inconsistent effort as a product of childish maturity but rather a lack of passion. Some people just aren't passionate about causing full speed collisions of their bodies into other bodies on play after play after play of a football game. And if it's a matter of passion, then it's a HUGE question mark because if you're not going to give it your all every play for your college friends, for your school, then when ARE you going to give it your all? When you've received millions of dollars up front as a top 10 pick? Professional work doesn't typically make kids more passionate, it wears on them.

 

---"I think there is also the nagging injury issue and I dubt that the doctor's report will allow us to ignore this, however, there is the possibility. Believe me, we have seen a huge difference in the physical condition and injury impacts of players when they move from college to pro. There is simply a world of difference between... blah blah"

 

I'll buy that. Good point.

 

---"We have seen this time after time in the more obvious situation of recovery from traumatic college injury like WM and Thurman and also conditioning and weight control of someone like Bruce Smith."

 

Those are different situations from the "nagging injury" one. Recovery from a traumatic injury definitely requires a doctor's attention to ensure that ligament or bone that was destroyed has healed properly. Weight control is obviously a different issue as well. But when a player is constantly bothered and slowed by nicks and sprains, then it's a worrisome issue. Like I said, I'll buy that improved nutrition/facilities/strength & conditioning coaches can POSSIBLY help with that. I'm not sure whether it's likely that it will help, though. Some people just have naturally injury prone bodies.

[The Jokeman]

There's hardly a dropoff though.  It's not like the OTs, where there's D'Brickashaw Ferguson, then a dropoff to Winston Justice, Eric Winston, and the others.  Joseph, Spencer, Jean-Gilles and Lutui aren't separated by much.

664778[/snapback]

While I agree there isn't a drop off in the OGs in terms of talent. There is a matter of preference, as I tend to agree with Ozymandius and prefer "dancing bear" type players like Joseph and Spencer whereas I know you prefer Giles and Duce. So to me the two best OGs available are Joseph and Spencer, who grade out as 2nd Rounders and then the next grouping is of 3rd Rounders include Boothe, Sims and Spitz etc in other words in my eyes Jean-Giles and Duce aren't options. Though I agree with your sentiments about getting a great group of players. As I've posted many a time and will post many times more, the draft is about getting the best collection of players not the best player each round.

[Fan in San Diego]

I think good OL are harder to find and this draft is deeper with DL talent, so I'll have to say take an OL first.

[stuckincincy]

I think good OL are harder to find and this draft is deeper with DL talent, so I'll have to say take an OL first.

664868[/snapback]

 

Yup.