Bills - Patriots Preview

[Rico]

Pats will exploit Bills' weaknesses

 

Why To Watch

Buffalo QB Drew Bledsoe wants nothing more than to get his 2004 season on track working against his former team, but the offense should run through RB Travis Henry. Bills first-year head coach Mike Mularkey doesn't want his struggling quarterback to shoulder the brunt of the load working against an aggressive and savvy New England secondary.

 

While RB Corey Dillon has given the Patriots' offense the premier back it had been missing, New England's offense faces its toughest challenge thus far, as Buffalo's defense has been outstanding. Will the Patriots be able to keep the Bills off balance or will Buffalo's defense help its offense by generating some turnovers that result in quality field position or even points?

 

When the Patriots have the ball

Rushing: Buffalo's run defense has been stout and its talented front seven is capable of controlling the line of scrimmage working against an overachieving New England offensive line. However, don't expect Patriots' offensive coordinator Charlie Weis to abandon the run. Weis understands the importance of balance. He will use the run to keep the Bills' safeties honest and set up play-action

 

One of the ways Weis can help his offensive line is to run some "wham" plays, which create better blocking angles for the offensive line as well as the tight ends. The tight end plays a critical role in the success of the play, as Weis will put him in motion and use him to block down on the defensive tackle. With the tight end sealing the defensive tackle inside, the guard can release up to the second level making it easier for him to reach the linebacker. TE Daniel Graham has developed into an excellent blocker and should be able to create some seams for Dillon.

 

New England's offensive line employed a seven-man rotation over the first two games with OT Adrian Klemm and ROG Stephen Neal getting some snaps in relief. Although Klemm is expected to see fewer snaps as the season wears on, Neal should continue to play a big role in short-yardage situations. Neal plays with a mean streak and shows excellent power at the point of attack. The Patriots will need both of those attributes to establish an effective interior running game this week, as RDT Sam Adams does an excellent job of clogging up the middle.

 

Passing: There is some speculation that Bills SS Lawyer Milloy will return from a broken forearm that has forced him to miss the past two games. While Milloy will certainly want to play against his former team, Buffalo doesn't want to risk rushing him back so it's highly unlikely he'll be available. That doesn't bode well for the Bills considering New England's talent and depth at tight end.

 

The Patriots will test backup Coy Wire, who can be overaggressive at times, with play-action early and often. If Wire gets caught out of position, Graham and Watson have the burst to get behind him quickly and the speed to prevent him from recovering. While Christian Fauria isn't as fast as his younger counterparts, he sells the fake extremely well and is a precise route-runner who should be able to get open underneath when working against Wire.

 

New England QB Tom Brady threw four interceptions and completed less than half of his passes the last time he played in Buffalo. He'll want to avenge that performance with a strong game, but he must continue to play within himself working against a strong Bills' pass defense. Brady is one of the best in the league at spreading the ball around and taking what the defense gives him. If he tries to force some passes to his receivers downfield, CBs Nate Clements and Troy Vincent have the ball skills to turn those poor decisions into turnovers.

 

When the Bills have the ball

Rushing: The Patriots had some problems stopping the run in their season-opener against Indianapolis and Buffalo will look to exploit that vulnerability by giving Henry 20-plus carries. Staying committed to the run game is critical because the Bills cannot become one-dimensional. New England will blitz the immobile Bledsoe all day if that happens. Henry has the powerful running style to turn those carries into quality production working against a Patriots' front seven that has appeared somewhat soft in the middle.

 

The problem is he can't do it on his own so his underachieving offensive line must step up. New England defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel will use a number of different alignments and some run-blitzes to keep Buffalo on its toes. If the offensive line doesn't stay on the same page when adjusting to the different looks, the Patriots should have some success getting to Henry in the backfield.

 

Even if Buffalo runs well between the 20s, the Bills' ground attack should continue to sputter inside the red zone. New England excels at tightening up inside the 20-yard line and Crennel will frequently stack the line of scrimmage with SS Rodney Harrison when Buffalo gets close to the goal line. Harrison plays with rare intensity and he is outstanding in run support. In addition, the Patriots will often line a defender over the head of the five offensive linemen inside the 5-yard line. Undersized OC Trey Teague won't get much help working against NT Keith Traylor when this happens and he lacks the lower body strength to drive Traylor off the ball on his own.

 

Passing: Many expected that Bledsoe wouldn't take as many sacks in Mularkey's offense, but that hasn't been the case thus far, as Oakland sacked him seven times two weeks ago. There is no question that Bledsoe's inability to avoid pressure and his tendency to hold onto the ball too long result in him taking some big hits. However, the protection must improve. Crennel has the talent in the secondary to play man-coverage on the outside and bring pressure from all over the field. He will also rush three to four men while dropping seven men into eight or seven men into coverage.

 

The Bills' backs and tight ends must pick up the blitz when asked to help out in pass protection. Their offensive line must adjust to any line stunts and give Bledsoe enough time to find the open man or throw the ball away when Crennel only rushes three or four men.

 

Buffalo must avoid obvious passing situations, as that's when Crennel will be most creative and aggressive. As a result, the Bills must play mistake-free football. They cannot get flagged for illegal motion or false starts and they cannot get caught holding because of poor positioning. In addition, Buffalo needs to eliminate any breakdowns and execute efficiently on first and second down.

 

Scouts' Edge

Look for Buffalo's ground attack and strong defense to keep this game close early. Henry should have some success running between the tackles and he'll prevent Crennel from teeing off on Bledsoe. The Bills will also have some success slowing Dillon down and forcing Brady into some obvious passing situations, but it won't be enough in the end.

 

While Buffalo has quality starting corners in Clements and Vincent, there isn't great depth and there are questions at safety. Brady will continue to exploit the weakness of the defense and find the open man, allowing New England to sustain long scoring drives that keep its talented defense well-rested.