Orton's Arm Posted April 9, 2006 Share Posted April 9, 2006 http://www.niagara-gazette.com/sports/loca..._097220726.html Losman’s PAR/g in his prime — years seven through 11 — will be 2.14, according to Lewin’s projections. “For comparison, this is somewhere between Trent Dilfer and Kerry Collins,” Lewin said. Granted, those two quarterbacks met in Super Bowl XXXV, but NFL teams expect a quarterback drafted in the first round to have a better career than Dilfer or Collins. For another comparison, consider Lewin’s projections for the top three quarterback prospects in this year’s draft. The formula predicts a 5.76 PAR/g value for USC’s Matt Leinart, which means he will be as good as Carson Palmer. Vanderbilt quarterback Jay Cutler’s projected value is 4.75, which suggests he will perform along the lines of Drew Brees or Byron Leftwich. Texas’ Vince Young projects to be as good as Donovan McNabb has been, with a projected PAR/g of 3.94. In other words, after four more years of painfully watching Losman develop, we'll have ourselves Trent Dilfer. Assuming, of course, that Losman manages to do a better job of avoiding injuries than he's done so far. I wonder how Nall stacks up in this guy's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted April 9, 2006 Share Posted April 9, 2006 Thanks God that guy has come up with the 'system'. Now we never need pay a scout again to assess QBs. Oh happy day. I wonder if it will work on high schoolers too. We could draft directly from there & cut out all that pesky development stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted April 9, 2006 Share Posted April 9, 2006 My magic 8-ball says the same thing, so it must be true. PTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted April 9, 2006 Author Share Posted April 9, 2006 Thanks God that guy has come up with the 'system'. Now we never need pay a scout again to assess QBs. Oh happy day. I wonder if it will work on high schoolers too. We could draft directly from there & cut out all that pesky development stuff. 656873[/snapback] A hundred years ago, people rode horses and read by candlelight. You get progress by people trying new things, and seeing which ones work. This guy's developed a system. Maybe it's a contribution to the world of player evaluation, and maybe it isn't. We'll know more in a few years, after the system's been given a chance to prove its worth. I don't understand your hostility toward a guy who's simply trying to do his part to make football evaluation better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted April 9, 2006 Share Posted April 9, 2006 A hundred years ago, people rode horses and read by candlelight. You get progress by people trying new things, and seeing which ones work. This guy's developed a system. Maybe it's a contribution to the world of player evaluation, and maybe it isn't. We'll know more in a few years, after the system's been given a chance to prove its worth. I don't understand your hostility toward a guy who's simply trying to do his part to make football evaluation better. 656876[/snapback] This guy says he can predict a QB's career based on his college stats? He didn't "discover" anything! He's blowin' smoke. But there are people who will believe anything. PTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted April 9, 2006 Share Posted April 9, 2006 This guy says he can predict a QB's career based on his college stats? He didn't "discover" anything! He's blowin' smoke. But there are people who will believe anything. PTR 656880[/snapback] Plus the fact he's a 19-year old college freshman. Hoo boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted April 9, 2006 Share Posted April 9, 2006 A hundred years ago, people rode horses and read by candlelight. You get progress by people trying new things, and seeing which ones work. This guy's developed a system. Maybe it's a contribution to the world of player evaluation, and maybe it isn't. We'll know more in a few years, after the system's been given a chance to prove its worth. I don't understand your hostility toward a guy who's simply trying to do his part to make football evaluation better. 656876[/snapback] I have read the full article & the concept of his system seems ridiculous. From all I've ever heard on the development of QBs, a lot of emphasis is placed on the pro system/ the speed increase of NFL/ maturity development of leadership/ etc etc. Basically there are a lot of factors which cannot be quantified in numerical statistics(or barely at most). To come out with a statistical theory predicting that accurately how someone will develop is..as I said...rediculous. If the article had said this new statistical analysis can help determine blah blah blah, I would not have a problem with it but to say JP is going to be a little better than one but notquite as good as another is...open to ridicule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jad1 Posted April 9, 2006 Share Posted April 9, 2006 So this guy's rookie QB projection system is going to be included in this year's Pro Football Prospectus. I bought last year's Pro Football Prospectus, and here are the numbers that they predicted for JP in 2005: 60.1% completion pctg; 3086 yards; 20 TDs; 14 Ints. Not bad. Hardly a guy destined to become Trent Dilfer or Kerry Collins. Now they're predicting his career to be a bust. I guess all predictions are subject to hindsight. One season he's going to be a rising star, the next he's Trent Dilfer Jr. Anyway, I'd take this with a grain of salt. Drew Brees' PAR couldn't have been that high prior to the 2004 season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted April 9, 2006 Author Share Posted April 9, 2006 I have read the full article & the concept of his system seems ridiculous. From all I've ever heard on the development of QBs, a lot of emphasis is placed on the pro system/ the speed increase of NFL/ maturity development of leadership/ etc etc. Basically there are a lot of factors which cannot be quantified in numerical statistics(or barely at most). To come out with a statistical theory predicting that accurately how someone will develop is..as I said...rediculous. If the article had said this new statistical analysis can help determine blah blah blah, I would not have a problem with it but to say JP is going to be a little better than one but notquite as good as another is...open to ridicule. 656882[/snapback] I went to Football Outsiders, where I found an article written by Lewin himself. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings.php?p=3774&cat=0 Everyone knows that in football, statistical analysis is no substitute for scouting, but it can be useful as an addition to scouting. And since scouting has been particularly iffy when dealing with first round quarterbacks — how’s Ryan Leaf these days? — there is a need for a system that could use college statistics to identify players who are more or less likely to become quality NFL starters. Lewin seems to have a good head on his shoulders, and isn't making wild claims as far as I noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ieatcrayonz Posted April 9, 2006 Share Posted April 9, 2006 http://www.niagara-gazette.com/sports/loca..._097220726.htmlIn other words, after four more years of painfully watching Losman develop, we'll have ourselves Trent Dilfer. Assuming, of course, that Losman manages to do a better job of avoiding injuries than he's done so far. I wonder how Nall stacks up in this guy's system. 656860[/snapback] I haven't heard such hogwash since JP-Era started replying to his own posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justnzane Posted April 9, 2006 Share Posted April 9, 2006 I haven't heard such hogwash since JP-Era started replying to his own posts. 656886[/snapback] :woot: I agree w/ you mr. crayonz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted April 9, 2006 Author Share Posted April 9, 2006 So this guy's rookie QB projection system is going to be included in this year's Pro Football Prospectus. 656883[/snapback] Was anything by Lewin included in last year's Pro Football Prospectus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted April 9, 2006 Share Posted April 9, 2006 I went to Football Outsiders, where I found an article written by Lewin himself. Lewin seems to have a good head on his shoulders, and isn't making wild claims as far as I noticed. 656884[/snapback] Actually, just after he says no substitute for scouting he says there is a need for a system that could use college statistics to identify players who are more or less likely to become quality NFL starters.Analysis of college numbers has been a goal of Football Outsiders since its inception, and in the upcoming book Pro Football Prospectus 2006 it will become a reality for the first time. he is clearly trying to 'sell' & honestly, it was more that you took it all on board as fact about JP that got me. In other words, after four more years of painfully watching Losman develop, we'll have ourselves Trent Dilfer. Assuming, of course, that Losman manages to do a better job of avoiding injuries than he's done so far. I wonder how Nall stacks up in this guy's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jad1 Posted April 9, 2006 Share Posted April 9, 2006 Was anything by Lewin included in last year's Pro Football Prospectus? 656889[/snapback] No, but they definitely use the PAR system to rate every player. Sounds like this guy is applying their system to college players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted April 9, 2006 Author Share Posted April 9, 2006 & honestly, it was more that you took it all on board as fact about JP that got me. 656896[/snapback] I see where you're coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apuszczalowski Posted April 9, 2006 Share Posted April 9, 2006 For another comparison, consider Lewin’s projections for the top three quarterback prospects in this year’s draft. The formula predicts a 5.76 PAR/g value for USC’s Matt Leinart, which means he will be as good as Carson Palmer. Vanderbilt quarterback Jay Cutler’s projected value is 4.75, which suggests he will perform along the lines of Drew Brees or Byron Leftwich. Texas’ Vince Young projects to be as good as Donovan McNabb has been, with a projected PAR/g of 3.94. 656860[/snapback] phew, better draft that QB at #8. I mean we don't want a Dilfer or Collins, One who has led his team to a SB and another theat won one. Compared to one of these "Can't miss" (according to this system) QB's in the draft cause they compare to guys with so much more team success. Besides McNabb (who needed T.O to help him get to the SB) Palmer has finally delveloped into a good QB (after a couple seasons, not 8 games) and Brees and Leftwich who have done what so far? Brees finally showed what he has after the chargers were about to call him a bust and replace him with a 1st round pick and leftwich who has led his team to some early exits in the playoffs. I could care less if Buffalos starting QB was the next Montana, or just a guy that takes us to the SB. Its more important in my opinion to have a team that is successful, than a QB that will go to the Pro Bowl but never win the big game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted April 9, 2006 Author Share Posted April 9, 2006 No, but they definitely use the PAR system to rate every player. Sounds like this guy is applying their system to college players. 656898[/snapback] From what I gather, the PAR system is what they use to rate past performance, much like some would use the QB rating or some other measure to rate past performance. What this guy is doing is using various college statistics to predict future QB success. I don't want to get too technical, but basically what this guy did was to use statistical tools to develop his system. He started by looking at how first round picks in the past have performed. He had to be able to put an exact number on each QB's performance, so he used PAR. He could easily have used some other quantitative measure--such as QB rating--as long as he had something with which to quantify the difference between a Drew Brees and a Trent Dilfer. Having quantified the success (or lack thereof) between the various QBs chosen early in the draft, he then proceeded to look at whether the college careers of the successful NFL QBs differed substantially from the college careers of the early round busts. It turns out that games started and adjusted completion percentage were the two most powerful indicators of whether past early-round QBs would be busts. Whether these factors will continue to be correlated with early-round QB success remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted April 9, 2006 Share Posted April 9, 2006 Besides McNabb (who needed T.O to help him get to the SB) 656930[/snapback] I know this is off topic but... Didn't T.O. totally miss the playoffs & only return for the Bowl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jad1 Posted April 9, 2006 Share Posted April 9, 2006 From what I gather, the PAR system is what they use to rate past performance, much like some would use the QB rating or some other measure to rate past performance. What this guy is doing is using various college statistics to predict future QB success... 656934[/snapback] Yeah, I get it, but it seems like there are too many factors that affect performance in college that any pure statistical analysis would be suspect. Danny Wurffel, Heath Shuler, and David Klingler are examples of great college QBs who flopped in the NFL, mostly because they were system QBs. You would need more than just PAR to get a good read on them. Vince Young this season is also a good example of where straight stats won't work. The bottom line with him is that if the team that drafts him tries to turn him into a pure pocket passer, he'll flop, regardless of the great numbers he put up at Texas. There's a leveling of talent in the NFL and a continuity of play calling schemes that makes PAR a more reliable stat. Needless to say, I'm not ready to buy the idea that the Bills should give up on Losman because a college kid's application of these stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jad1 Posted April 9, 2006 Share Posted April 9, 2006 I know this is off topic but...Didn't T.O. totally miss the playoffs & only return for the Bowl? 656936[/snapback] Yes. One could say that thanks to McNabb, Owens was able to play in the SB (I doubt that's his take on it though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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