Pyrite Gal Posted April 4, 2006 Posted April 4, 2006 The news that Winston Justice is moving up the draft board and is now seen as a top 1o choice by some pundits at OT is great news for the Bills. D'Brick Fergy has had a monopoly pretty much on evaluation as a top ten OL pick and the feeling isthat it is quite unlikely he would drop to the Bills at #8. However, his emergence (seemingly based mostly on his performance in non-football play calisthenics like great vertical leap numbers at his pro day) easily propels to near 15 (or maybe 20 have ben mentioned) players who are noted to be a deadlock certainty to be picked by the time the Bills choice rolls around. If a run on QBs happens and folks like Leinart, Young and today;s flavor Cutler actually get chosen in the top 5 the Bills will almost certainly see a sirprising player like V. Davis, AJ Hawk, or even D'Brick himself be available at #8 (not all of them certainly and any one of them is likely to be gone, but if there are any surprising picks among the top 7 if other teams make an assessment that buys into the soap opera inspired hype for a player like Cutler or Vince Young, it could get very interesting to own the #8 pick. To me the key element (and most fan draftniks will hate to hear this) will be that a big key to the Bills making the right choice is going to be the personal interviews they do with players at the Combine and on pro days. Draftniks will hate this because us fans specialize in making our judgments based on stuff we can see (if we have the free time or money to visit the Combine or at least the free time to watch NFL Network) and things which can be measured like vertical leap, weight lifting reps. 40 times or shuttle run speeds. However, all these high school calisthenics while real indicators of athleticism are no where near determiners of good football skills (even though in this fantasy league drive world folks still for some reason one treat these numbers like deadlocak certain religious pronouncements. Its great to hear of prospects turning in impressive times, but really all they do is heighten the ultimate value of the interviews with the GM of individual players and Marv, Modrak and the upper level braintrust making their assessment of from looking in a players' eyes about how much of a football player (not an athlete, nor how good individually a man is), a potential player is going to be. Reading these tea leaves is a tough thing to do under any circumstances. Even when you read a player's character correctly, it is impossible to tell what the gods will introduce into a players life for the first time in his youth that may actually change his make-up signficantly (for example if a early 20ish player falls in love for the first time and a lot of his commitment that he honestly showed when interviewed was because football was the most important thing in his life and suddenly football is a distant #2 behind his love, or suddenly this kid can have a kid and look at the future for the first time and suddenly a flighty idiot becomes a serious about the game because this is the way to serve his kid, or like Mike Williams, the Grammy who raised him dies and a happy-go-lucky kid has a major meltdown). Prdiciting the future is impossible under the best circumstances, but even still it becomes all important in making a choice for the drafters to read whether the college play or Combine numbers will translate into being a Buffalo Bill. In is funny because the more deadlock certain folks predictions are in TSW, then the more humorous they strike me. Don't get me wrong, its great info and perspective and I am glad folks share it, However, no TSW poster really should exect anyone to take these predictions as any more than a guesstimate. Unless the posters have not just simply looked at the game or game films or simply poured through stats, it is impossible to take any predictions with much seriousness unless they also have talked to the potential draftee and looked him in the eye to assess the man. My sense is that any even semi-intelligent NFL team when given a choice between a Best Player Avaiable Apprpach OR a Need Approach who does not say they pursue BOTH is simply lying to you or is quite dumb in ignoring one of these key factors. Even beyond taking a general approach, the ultimate decision needs to be driven by looking the player in the eye and talking to him before they decide who to draft or they are doing little more than rolling the dice that their pick will not be some prima donna, coddled athlete and not a real adult or a real man. My own fact-free opinions as to the top likely draft picks as told by Kiper are: 1) . Reggie Bush Jr. RB USC Bush can score from anywhere on the field. Almost certainly will not drop and the cost of trading up to get him is prohibitive. 2. Matt Leinart Sr. QB USC Arm strength has improved since 2004. Also will not drop to # 8, the cost of trading up to get him is prohibitive and for us to picks a QB in the first round with three QBs under contract )meaning significant cost to even cut or trade them) means drafting any QB in the first would be dumb. 3. Mario Williams Jr. DE N.C. State Rushes the quarterback extremely well. Attractive player given cover 2 need for DL push but will not drop to #8 and signing od Denney with Kelsay and Schobel under contract makes DE a non-interest in the 1st for us. 4. D'Brickashaw Ferguson Sr. OT Virginia Best offensive line prospect in the senior class. Take hun uf he somehow drops but incredibly unlikely this will happen and our needs are to great and diverse to trade up. 5. Vince Young Jr. QB Texas Moved into top three after Rose Bowl performance. I hope that the soap opera love which attracts many fans to glitzy players allows him to be taken in the top 5, but non-prototypical player in an NFL within which many draft gurus are legends in their own minds makes it possible that this unconventional but wonderful talent could drop. If he does drop to #8 the Bills should try first to get some foolish team below them to trade us value to move up and if not then run and do not walk to pick up someone else. He may end up being a great player but does not appear to be orthodox enough for us to build around. 6. Michael Huff Sr. DB Texas Athletic, instinctive and has versatility for next level. Kiper has him highly ranked and SS is defintie need for us (some TSW posters advocate taking him). This is tempting as he looks like a very good player, but though Kiper values him highly as a palyer he also recognizes that not only will ne be there at #9 but probably even later in the draft as it is unusual for a Safety to go in the top 10. If the Bills want him, they likely can trade down a couple of spots and still get him while bringing need resources to the team. 7. A.J. Hawk Sr. LB Ohio St. Best senior prospect on defense. Another great player who if the Bills took him (and likely he would not have to drop far and if something happened like the Jets going for Cutler, Hawk probably drops to us. Yet, we have major salary cap outlays scheduled for 06 to TKO, Fletch and Crowell. This is not even counting the fact that now lontime starting Bill OLB Posey is under contract (and proably will be cut even under the current configuration. Drafting Hawk likely delays the Bills returning to competitive status bu a year as by definition major DL gaps would have to be filled by a less than 1st round talent AND we are going to be choosing to pay a massive cap hit to someone not contributing on the field. If folks think this is the way to do things fine, but they tend to only argue that which no one disagress with that Hawk is great, when the real answer to the problems caused by drafting him are what millionaire to they plan to pay for not contribuiting and how will out holes where we are missing a starter get filled? 8. Vernon Davis Jr. TE Maryland Wide receiver in a tight end's body. One of the more interesting possibilities. He has an easy case to make to be the BPA TE in this draft and if you worship workout numbers over actual production a case that he may well be one of the BPAs at TE ever. However, this important single position which nevertheless is used marginally in almost all NFL Os iactuallyed occupied quite well on the Bills as former HC MM wwas a TE and on his watch we spent 3rd rounders two years in a row on TEs who are still unproven actors on our roster due to injuries. Given our needs at several other positions one almost has to be devoted to BPA over need entirely to justifiy having any interest in Davis. There is a not unreasonable possibility that the Bills may get a shot at VD at # 8, but those of us who believe that BPA is important but rationality demands blending that with a balanced view that also takes into account need. If Davis is still available (which he may not be as I suspect some draft guru will be attracted by his stunning wrkout numbers, the best football move for the Bills looks like tradedown for someone who really relishes Davis and use the acquired picks to meet our wide needs, Just as Hawk may create an opportunity to rape some mid0round pick which wants him badly so to if Davis drops to us their may be an unprecedented opportunity to take someone foaming at the wallet over Davis to the cleaners for our football benefit. 9. DeAngelo Williams Sr. RB Memphis Third in the nation in rushing yards per game. At best we need a #2 EB and we can find one elsewhere and get a better player than Williams to fill a need we have. 10. Haloti Ngata Jr. DT Oregon Clogs the middle and penetrates backfield well. Some TSW folk seem to rag on him because as best as I can tell they really want us to pick some player they love at a different position. There is even the though wwidely spread on TSW that a big body like Ngota does not fit at all our Dick Jauron deecided cover 2 scheme. Yeah right? Jauron has relied on such fleet supple DL platyers as Big Ted Washington in Chicago and also Keith Traylor. DC Fewell comes from Jax which used some mobile DTs like Stroud and Henderson to man his scheme who seem to be mobile big men the same as the massive Ngota also has a rep as a penetrator even though he is huge. The Bills cleaerly have a commitment to a scheme in that we are going to run cover 2 rather than a zone blitz, BUT WE HAVE NOT RUN THE BILLS VERSION YET, an nobody but nobody know whether Haloti fits the way that Jauron and Fewell are going to run our system. All we know is that: A. We have a need for another starting DT next to Triplett. B. Traditionally to run cover 2 pressure on the QB is key so whoever we get needs to be a penetrator at times. C, Marv has often said the game starts with running and stopping the run. Who knows for sure, but if Ngota ia there at #8 a lot of factors point to the Bills taking him. 11. LenDale White Jr. RB USC Touchdown scoring machine. Read DeAngelo Williams, take two aspirin and call me in the morning. 12. Jimmy Williams Sr. CB Va. Tech Shutdown corner who cuts the field in half. We can do better at # 8 when we pick and there is little reason to go out of our way for a CB after franchising NC. Additional folks worth mentioning on the Kiper list- 15. Jay Cutler Sr. QB Vanderbilt Has all the tools NFL looks for in a QB. It will be great news for us if he gets picked by one of the first 7 as this would push a good player we need down to us. 17. Brodrick Bunkley Sr. DT Florida St. Defenisve standout at the combine. Theoretically stock is creeping up, but this in part may be a Bills inspired rumor as Ngota looks like such an obvious pick for. He is one reason though I do not mind us trading # 8 for a mid 1st pick if we get serious extra resources and can take Bunckley as well. I prefer a bigger body to team with the athletic fleet D players we are emphasizing but he seems to have the quality of play to be a run stopper extraordinaire even at an OK but not huge size. 22. Winston Justice Jr. OT USC Excellent blocker; can play either tackle position. Good work at USC pro day and calistenic performances like a near 40 inch vertical leap (virtually unheard of for an OT, but an example of how workout numbers may be meaningless because this jumping ability will really come in handy when he goes up for poorly thrown balls on tackles eligible passes). At any rate, its good news that he is getting some propsbecause if true then perhaps the Bills will be able to get some credible OL help if they can in fact increase their supply of draft choices by trading down. Well that is my fact free opinion and the only dead lock certainty is that after some research and study something different than I think is correct will happen. But then why should I be different than anyone else?
Ozymandius Posted April 4, 2006 Posted April 4, 2006 However, this important single position which nevertheless is used marginally in almost all NFL Os is actually occupied quite well on the Bills as former HC MM wwas a TE and on his watch we spent 3rd rounders two years in a row on TEs who are still unproven actors on our roster due to injuries. Given our needs at several other positions one almost has to be devoted to BPA over need entirely to justifiy having any interest in Davis. 651143[/snapback] TEs are used marginally in many NFL Os because most teams don't have the stud talent at that position to take advantage of. Teams that have the stud there tend to throw lots of passes to their TE and score lots of points. You're also being too kind to say that the TE position is occupied well on this roster.
billsfanmiami(oh) Posted April 4, 2006 Posted April 4, 2006 Seriously, how long does it take you to write one of these novels?
apuszczalowski Posted April 4, 2006 Posted April 4, 2006 Most TSW posters on here say Ngata doesn't fit the Bills cover 2 system cause the coach and GM said he doesn't (smoke screen maybe, but probably not) I believe our choice at #8 should be Davis, Huff, Trade down for a DT at a more reasonable position, Ngata, in that order
Pyrite Gal Posted April 4, 2006 Author Posted April 4, 2006 Most TSW posters on here say Ngata doesn't fit the Bills cover 2 system cause the coach and GM said he doesn't (smoke screen maybe, but probably not) I believe our choice at #8 should be Davis, Huff, Trade down for a DT at a more reasonable position, Ngata, in that order 651254[/snapback] I wouldn't shock me if I missed Jauron/Levy dismissing ngata as being inapropriate for the position in our cover 2 (though for them to be this specific about a player would seen odd and perhaps them protesting to much) and I would love the links or cites to these comments.
D_House Posted April 4, 2006 Posted April 4, 2006 I wouldn't shock me if I missed Jauron/Levy dismissing ngata as being inapropriate for the position in our cover 2 (though for them to be this specific about a player would seen odd and perhaps them protesting to much) and I would love the links or cites to these comments. 651273[/snapback] Yeah me too. Someone on this board also made the point that Juaron did well in Chicago with big DTs Traylor and Washington, although I don't know if he was using the cover 2 then.
Bob in STL Posted April 4, 2006 Posted April 4, 2006 10. Haloti Ngata Jr. DT Oregon Clogs the middle and penetrates backfield well. Some TSW folk seem to rag on him because as best as I can tell they really want us to pick some player they love at a different position. There is even the though wwidely spread on TSW that a big body like Ngota does not fit at all our Dick Jauron deecided cover 2 scheme. Yeah right? Jauron has relied on such fleet supple DL platyers as Big Ted Washington in Chicago and also Keith Traylor. DC Fewell comes from Jax which used some mobile DTs like Stroud and Henderson to man his scheme who seem to be mobile big men the same as the massive Ngota also has a rep as a penetrator even though he is huge. The Bills cleaerly have a commitment to a scheme in that we are going to run cover 2 rather than a zone blitz, BUT WE HAVE NOT RUN THE BILLS VERSION YET, an nobody but nobody know whether Haloti fits the way that Jauron and Fewell are going to run our system. All we know is that: A. We have a need for another starting DT next to Triplett. B. Traditionally to run cover 2 pressure on the QB is key so whoever we get needs to be a penetrator at times. C, Marv has often said the game starts with running and stopping the run. Who knows for sure, but if Ngota ia there at #8 a lot of factors point to the Bills taking him. 651143[/snapback] I think this is our pick at 8. Justice ot Bunkley are rising based on their workouts and potential ... Ngata was the best DT in college when evaluated on the football field.
JDG Posted April 4, 2006 Posted April 4, 2006 O.k., you describe this team as having "multiple needs" - but yet in your position-by-position description you seem to pooh-pooh all of our needs, save at DT. For example, Mario Williams at DE? Nope - the Bills have Schobel, Kelsay, and Denney. Sorry - but if the Bills evaluate Williams as being head-and-shoulders above the other prospects, then we absolutely should consider making a move for a player who would be a huge upgrade. How about AJ Hawk at LB? Nope, the Bills have Fletcher, Spikes, Crowell, and Posey. Sorry - but Fletcher and Spikes are getting old, Posey has never been any good, and Crowell, IMHO, got a lot of "clean-up" tackles last year. Again, we shouldn't shy away from an impact player. Vince Young or Jay Cutler at QB? Nope, the Bills have Nall, Holcomb, and Losman on the depth chart. Sorry - but Holcomb isn't the answer, the word on the street is that the Bills' braintrust has concluded that Losman is a bust, and how sold can anyone be on Nall as a long-term solution? I'm personally not a Cutler fan, but if a leader and a winner with unbelievable talent like Vince Young falls to us, and Jauron thinks that he can use him, I have to believe that QB absolutely enters the discussion. How about Vernon Davis at TE? Nope, the Bills have two 3rd Round Picks at TE coming off serious injuries. Sorry, but HELLO! - if a difference-maker like Vernon Davis is available, he should absolutely be considered. Betting on injured-third-round-picks is just plain silly...... About the only area where I agree with you is that we shouldn't be drafting a replacement for McGahee, despite his abysmal performance last year, in the 1st Round. That and that personal evaluations will be key in making the pick. In the end, the Bills are a bad team, and we have lots of room for upgrading our currently mediocre talent into difference makers beyond just drafting a DT or a Tackle in the first round. (I hope we aren't thinking of taking a Guard #8 overall.....) JDG
apuszczalowski Posted April 4, 2006 Posted April 4, 2006 I agree with you JDG except for QB. We don't need another 1st round QB. None of the QB's are all that impressive or can't miss QB's that Buffalo should ignore other needs to get them. Any player who plays o-line or d-line should be looked at, Safety's, LB's, TE's (like you said we have 2 previous 3rd rounders coming off serious injuries) should be seriously considered with the #8 pick as long as they are the best player (regardless of position) available. A QB can be drafted in the later half of the draft, along with a RB to backup Willis, or a WR. The only position I think we are set at and don't need to draft is Punter and Long snapper (since they are our only Pro Bowlers) I think people just assume that cause a player is regarded highly by some "Draft guru" on the net or in a magazine, or on ESPN that he will be a good NFLer. Mike Williams came highly regarded, How did that turn out? Everyone thinks if we get the top rated guy at #8 we will improve automatically because he performed well in college or at the combine regardless if he fits our system or not. Everyone also believes that it doesn't matter what kind of system the team wants to run, this player will fit (for example, Ngata has to be our pick cause he was great, he will work in the Bills cover 2 cause Jauron used big DT's in Chicago, even though they have said Ngata does not fit our Cover 2 we are going to run this year) A player has to be right for your system to make it work, just as an example (and I stress example) take the West Coast offence, you don't just get any QB and try to run it. You need one that has the skills to be able to run it for it to be successful, not just any one will work.
obie_wan Posted April 4, 2006 Posted April 4, 2006 In the end, the Bills are a bad team, and we have lots of room for upgrading our currently mediocre talent into difference makers beyond just drafting a DT or a Tackle in the first round. (I hope we aren't thinking of taking a Guard #8 overall.....) JDG 651518[/snapback] No- but we will probably draft Justice and then switch him to LG as he transitions to playing the left side of teh line - which he never played before.
JDG Posted April 4, 2006 Posted April 4, 2006 I think people just assume that cause a player is regarded highly by some "Draft guru" on the net or in a magazine, or on ESPN that he will be a good NFLer. Mike Williams came highly regarded, How did that turn out? Everyone thinks if we get the top rated guy at #8 we will improve automatically because he performed well in college or at the combine regardless if he fits our system or not. 651552[/snapback] I agree. One thing that is often overlooked in the run-up to the draft is that several players who will be drafted in the Top 10 are going to be busts. Yet, good luck finding a pre-draft publication that takes a crack at predicting who thoese busts will be. I agree with you JDG except for QB. We don't need another 1st round QB. None of the QB's are all that impressive or can't miss QB's that Buffalo should ignore other needs to get them. I disagree here. A good QB can instantly turn a team into a consistent playoff contender. Of course, there are other paths to consistent playoff contention (cf Pittsburgh and Baltimore in recent years), but jreally good QBs just seem to find their way into playoffs year after year in the NFL. Now, while drafting a QB is a crap shoot, many highly drafted QBs will go bust, and a few good QB's come out of the later rounds (Tom Brady, Jake Delhomme) - the truth of the matter is that a high 1st Round Pick QB is far more likely to turn into a consistent winner than a lowly drafted QB. In this year's draft, we have one QB, Matt Leinart, who is probably the most-accompished college QB to come out in several years. The guy was twice a Heisman finalist, and twice played in the National Championship game, including winning each once. He's only lost one game in the past two years - and while football is a team game, you still have to be pretty good to put your team in that position. All told, it is a very impressive resume, and unlike the Gino Toretta's and Danny Wuerffel's of the world, he appears to also have all of the natural physical tools. Watching Leinart bring USC back, on the road, against Notre Dame, its hard not to be impressed by his poise and leadership. You have to like the way he put his body on the line to try and win the game while diving for the end zone at the end of that one. There's no way that the Bills are getting Leinart, but we're kidding ourselves if we don't think that he'd be a worthwhile pick if he somehow fell all the way to #8. In many years, Leinart would be a consensus #1 overall pick, so he would simply be outstanding value if he somehow were there. The other QB, Vince Young, is admittedly a bit more intriguging. Watching him in the Rose Bowl, however, he looked like a snarter and more accurate version of Michael Vick. And hey, given the economic situation in Buffalo, and given the way that Buffalo has fallen completely off the national NFL map the past few years, getting a ticket-seller like Vince Young in Buffalo would not be a wholly bad thing. What really impressed me about his Rose Bowl performance, however, was his poise and leadership - given all the pressures of overcoming years of disappointment at Texas, he handled himself remarkably well in a lot of big games just to get to that point. And of course, his performance in that game was positively legendary. Its hard to project Vince Young to the Pros, quite simply because there is no other player quite like him. With his speed and agility, if he can pair that with a high degree of accuracy in the pros, he has at least an outside shot at becoming one of the best-ever - and how many players possibly available at #8 can we really say that about? Sure, its a gamble - but its one I'd be prepared to take. As for Jay Cutler, I honestly haven't seen too much of him - but I am nervous about QB's that weren't winners in college, and am definitely nervous about any QB being compared to Kyle Boller. He seems the hardest pick to justify at #8. Neverthless, the Bills are at the start of a new era. Levy and Jauron have about three years to build a winner. If Nall or Losman isn't the answer, then Levy and Jauron would be far better served by getting their QB now and beginning the development process, rather than simply living with the mistakes of the past and enduring with what they have. JDG
JAMIEBUF12 Posted April 4, 2006 Posted April 4, 2006 I wouldn't shock me if I missed Jauron/Levy dismissing ngata as being inapropriate for the position in our cover 2 (though for them to be this specific about a player would seen odd and perhaps them protesting to much) and I would love the links or cites to these comments. 651273[/snapback] well they have said repeatly that ngata dosnt fit the dt they need in a cover 2 defense,but what coach/gm in their right mind would come out and say exactly who they are drafting before the draft anyway.the only time that happens is the team with the 1st pick in the draft.i think ngata is the guy levy is targeting and the only way we dont draft him is if mario williams or aj hawk fall to #8.at marvs press conference he stated that to build a team you have to start with the defense.go bills in'06
BUFFALOTONE Posted April 4, 2006 Posted April 4, 2006 Seriously, how long does it take you to write one of these novels? 651197[/snapback] tell me about it I needed a nap after this thing.
Pyrite Gal Posted April 4, 2006 Author Posted April 4, 2006 O.k., you describe this team as having "multiple needs" - but yet in your position-by-position description you seem to pooh-pooh all of our needs, save at DT. For example, Mario Williams at DE? Nope - the Bills have Schobel, Kelsay, and Denney. Sorry - but if the Bills evaluate Williams as being head-and-shoulders above the other prospects, then we absolutely should consider making a move for a player who would be a huge upgrade. How about AJ Hawk at LB? Nope, the Bills have Fletcher, Spikes, Crowell, and Posey. Sorry - but Fletcher and Spikes are getting old, Posey has never been any good, and Crowell, IMHO, got a lot of "clean-up" tackles last year. Again, we shouldn't shy away from an impact player. Vince Young or Jay Cutler at QB? Nope, the Bills have Nall, Holcomb, and Losman on the depth chart. Sorry - but Holcomb isn't the answer, the word on the street is that the Bills' braintrust has concluded that Losman is a bust, and how sold can anyone be on Nall as a long-term solution? I'm personally not a Cutler fan, but if a leader and a winner with unbelievable talent like Vince Young falls to us, and Jauron thinks that he can use him, I have to believe that QB absolutely enters the discussion. How about Vernon Davis at TE? Nope, the Bills have two 3rd Round Picks at TE coming off serious injuries. Sorry, but HELLO! - if a difference-maker like Vernon Davis is available, he should absolutely be considered. Betting on injured-third-round-picks is just plain silly...... About the only area where I agree with you is that we shouldn't be drafting a replacement for McGahee, despite his abysmal performance last year, in the 1st Round. That and that personal evaluations will be key in making the pick. In the end, the Bills are a bad team, and we have lots of room for upgrading our currently mediocre talent into difference makers beyond just drafting a DT or a Tackle in the first round. (I hope we aren't thinking of taking a Guard #8 overall.....) JDG 651518[/snapback] Thanks for the thoughts JDG. In terms reloading for the future, there is at least some case to be made for us having needs at every single position, however, all this future thinking runs squarely into the limitation that reality demands we do something right now. Reloading, rebuilding, and restocking for the future are clearly things which would be done in a perfect world and clearly justify BPA thinking, but in reality (that pesky thing): 1. As one TSW poster noted, he agrees the Bills will need a season or two before they can seriouly compete, but he is going to buy tickets this year and investments which take into account realities like Fletch hitting FA, getting older, and likely needing replacing as soon as the 07 season are simply not reasonable investments for this business and even this football team to make in the first round. 2. 5 years of not making the playoffs create a powerful demand on this business to really compete for the playoffs this year and RWS's age creates a powerful demand on Marv to compete for the playoff's this year even if doing so seriously would mean taking some really bad risks that probably will not work out. I wouldn't take my position by position anaiysis as much more than a guess. One reason I think that folks assume way too much if they claim Ngota does not fit the Bills scheme, is because until they play the Bills really have no scheme beyond a general commitment to a cover-2 rather than a zone blitz. While my thoughts are based on a general sense that certain moves simply make no sense given salary cap and other realities (for example, drafting of a 1st round QB gives him a slotted contract which forces the Bills to cut one of the 3 vet QBs under contract, and given that we already have 2 developmental QBs under contract, it is simply impossible contractually for us to draft. Young, Cutler or Leinart if they drop to us) it thweoretically is possible for the Bills to take a DE like Mario if he dropped to us. Of course while this is theoretically even remotely doable (unlike drafting a QB in the first which is not even remotely rational) it would result in 'ol single-wing Levy" coming back top have us run a cover 2 with the new innovation of a 5-2 D scheme which lines up Mario, Schobel, a re-inked Denney, Triplett, and Kelsay as our DL. Its because I see these implications as so unlikely that I pooh-pooh us taking Mario. Again my position analysis defined by football reality is: DE- Having resigned Schobel and Denney and this really being a make-or break year for Kelsay where he will achieve Schobel status or not the chances of us getting a DE on the first day of the draft are pretty small. Plan A- We're set at DE. Plan B- we're set at DE DT- A clear need for a starter at RDT as Tim Anderson is listed first on the depth chart and few view him as meriting this designation. Given Marv's consistent commitment to the import of running/stopping the run, this player yet to be acquired is almost certain to be a run stopper who will bear major responsibility for this task. Even if we judge Ngota as being able to do this, even this commitment would leave us at a huge risk here due to injury and no real run stopper back-up. Its hard for me to see us passing on him when even if w take him we are still in danger, not taking him essentially converts our risk of danger into a reality of danger. The second best option for meeting the Marv stop the run mandate would be taking Bunkley, but the risk is still there with merely a tremendous showing of belief in the skills in assessing Bunkley as why this would work. We'll see. Plan A- Ngota Plan B- Bunkley if Ngota is taken but likely would only occur if someone trades up above us for Ngota and that is unlikely. WLB- Signs point to no major issues so far for TKO rehab. Even if he does not recover fully, 75% of TKO is better than 100% of avilable alternatives Plan A- TKO, Plan B- Crowell second on depth chart but he likely starts at SLB, but Stamer is resigned so we are set here. MLB- Fletch has led NFL in credited tackles the last 5 years and led Bills in tackles last year. Certainly an aging player who plays a lot based on his motor, but lost steps due to age are somewhat compensated for with fewer steps needed due to experience. He will not last forever (no one does) but no recurring injury or imminent signs of a sudden downturn. Plan A- set with Fletch, Plan B- An issue as Ezekial is second on the depth chart and cannot be expected to step in. However, in 05 preseason Crowell filled in nicely at MLB and he was actually resigned more with a thought that Fletch will not last forever than with a demand he take over the SLB slot. SLB- Crowell demonstrated he is a starting LB talent last year when he shifted from back-up MLB where he was slated to fill in admirably for an injured TKO. He will be asked to make the shift to the Sam spot last year and given he made the shift to the Will spot from back-up MLB last year this may happen. Posey really disappointed last year, bu then almost all Bills D players disappointed last year. He got a lot of grief from fans for being a bad player in 03 and 04 also, but these assessments were almost certainly the usual whining and bleating of fans as these Ds ranked #5 and #2 in the league statistically with Posey playing lots of minutes and a lead role. Even though Bills watchers such as Simon had lots of grief to give Posey about fairly technical complaints about body angle, closure on tackles and coverage aggressiveness they could not supply real examples from 03 and 04 about how these poor approaches resulted in Posey being victimized for large gains, TDs or missed plays. Since Posey's play really sucked last year like much of the D he clearly is at risk of losing his SLB starter job and MAYBE even his spot on the team. However, his 1.75 mill salary is easily third among the LBs (and not even outrageously higher than that of the recently extended Crowell. If anything, it is the play of the also recently extended Haggan who backs him up which places him at risk of being cut if Crowell takes the Sam job. Plan A- Crowell/Posey Plan B- The one who gets beat out or Haggan. The bottomline for those attracted to Hawk who really looks like a great one is that this team has 4 recent proficient NFL starters under contract at very doable cap hits for 3 LB positions (Fletch, TKO, Crowell, Posey who folks legitimately can argue about his proficiency in 05 but he did play a loto of SLB for very good Bills D in 03 and 04). In addition, the have recently signed extensions for 2 back-ups (Haggan and Stamer. That is 6 players for 6 LB starter and back-up positions. Any case for drafting Hawk obviously starts with him being a likely potential very good to maybe great player. However, the cost of getting this potential benefit is the certainty that we continue large gaps at DT and OL, and that added to the slotted #8 costs for Hawk are that the Bills will sit millions on their bench this year and actually subsidize another team millions when we cut a recent NFL starter and producer at LB. We can certainly draft Hawk if he driops to us, but even if he played as well or even better than it looks he will play at LB, it likely would set back the progress of this team in getting more Ws by a good year or more as forwent using the first rounder on other more pressing needs and we had to absorb the costs of having spent cap money which can not contribute to the team while sitting on the bench. RCB- We tagged NC and he is backed up by King who played well enough to get some PT as a rookie. Thomas is a post injury development we do not count on but hope recovers well. Plan A- NC, Plan B- King, Plan C- Thomas but really Vincent in a pinch LCB- McGee is definite starter with Greer as baack-up and likely nickel (though King will compete). Plan A- McGee, Plan B- Greer, plan C- Vincent in a pinch. There really are no needs at CB as we plan to increase cap management by working a deal with NC and worse comes to worse he should even be taggable again for 07 if need be. SS- There is a definite gap here as the current starter is the unacceptable as starting SS Coy Wire. The needs we have at DT, SS, and multiple starting OL positions is why I think the description of us having starting positions for which there is no answer on the current roster is why I am more than comfortable with the phrase multiple needs. We also have needs for a starter at QB and at TE, but in these cases i think we do have reasonable potential answers on the current roster (Nall, KH, JP at QB and Everett and maybe Euhus at TE) so given our multiple needs with no credible answer at other positions it why i think we likely will not simply go BPA. When it comes to other positions such as LB where we in fact have a bunch of credible starting choices the idea of picking a BPA there would likely hurt building the best teram. Plan A- draftee Huff or waiver wire. Plan B- Bown though he more likely will contribute as a back-up and on ST. FS- The complaints about Vincent strike me as the height of fan bleating and whining. The idea that drafting Huff allows one to cut Vincent should nspire nothing short of laughter. On a team which got too few turnovers last year, the idea we ar going to cut the player who tied for the team lead in INTs and also fumble recoveries simply makes little sense. the fact that cutting him provides little cap room is what makes this concept laughable. Plan A- TV, Blan B- former starter Baker, Plan C- well regarded Leonhard. Well that's my sense of the O and my conference call that allowed me to lauch forth while listening is done so maybe I will survey the o situation as well.
Tasker Posted April 4, 2006 Posted April 4, 2006 3. Mario Williams Jr. DE N.C. State Rushes the quarterback extremely well. Attractive player given cover 2 need for DL push but will not drop to #8 and signing od Denney with Kelsay and Schobel under contract makes DE a non-interest in the 1st for us. 7. A.J. Hawk Sr. LB Ohio St. Best senior prospect on defense. Another great player who if the Bills took him (and likely he would not have to drop far and if something happened like the Jets going for Cutler, Hawk probably drops to us. 22. Winston Justice Jr. OT USC Excellent blocker; can play either tackle position. Good work at USC pro day and calistenic performances like a near 40 inch vertical leap (virtually unheard of for an OT, but an example of how workout numbers may be meaningless because this jumping ability will really come in handy when he goes up for poorly thrown balls on tackles eligible passes). 651143[/snapback] Willams and Hawk are players you take on talent, if you don't trade down. It won't matter, because they will both be gone. A 39 inch vertical doesn't matter for jumping, but is instead an indicator of explosive lower body power, which is particularly run friendly. Just like Bunkley isn't likely to get an on field bench press, his 43 reps show strength that allows arm tackles not to be broken, etc. Davis will never run a 4.3 padless 40 in a game, but it shows he will be able to burn any LB, and mismatch DBs on size & strength. Don't draft just on these numbers, but don't act like they don't matter.
Recommended Posts