Tasker Posted April 2, 2006 Posted April 2, 2006 I keep hearing "NEED". Yes we need lineman and to improve our lines. That should have been the number one goal of free agency, and is a pretty good overall philosophy for the draft. That said, what we really need is great football players. I think everybody seems to agree that Hawk is a much better football player than Ngata. That Huff is very likely a better football player than Justice. That Davis is a superior football player to Bunkley. Five years from now we are going to feel silly if Davis is a pro bowl game-changer for somebody else, and we have Justice who we figure out is similar to lots of 2nd round guys. Or if Huff is making a huge difference for another team, and Ngata is hurt and average and taking up space for us. I don't mean the player's talent starting five years from now, but their accumulated value over those five years. These decisions are more easily measurable in baseball where you can clearly compare player values, but in football it will not be as quantifiable, but you will still know. I would love if the careful evaluation shows Ngata or Bunkley or Justice would be better than these other guys, and we can outsmart the conventional wisdom. Maybe Huff is not football fast or plays a position where extra talent has less of an impact. Maybe Hawk is overhyped and will prove average in the NFL. Maybe Davis has bad hands and can't block, and maybe Ngata is the real deal and will prove to have Junior Seau's heart on the inside. All that would be great. But we need to base our draft based on the players and our best evaluations of them, and not on our current roster. And we need to try to make better evaluations of talent and value than our rivals do (this is New England's model). We need to get the best players available with every pick in this draft and every draft. There will be enough picks where we have choices because it is not clear cut, and we can tailor those picks to lean towards our needs (currently on both lines) at least as far as we are unable to address needs in free agency (which should be our first goal). This is important stuff if you care about winning. This is the difference between being the Oakland A's and the Kansas City Royals (for those who follow baseball), or between New England and the Redskins.
Sisyphean Bills Posted April 2, 2006 Posted April 2, 2006 Yes, virtually the entire NFL Community. As you see, safeties are not selected in the top 10. Exceptions? Sure, Sean Taylor (awaiting disposition of his criminal case(s), and Roy Williams, good, but I don't know if he is playing up to the #8 slot. You see Tip Man, the Bills DTs OTs, OGs, and perhaps OCs are marked by weakness and lack of skill. Although you make it sound not so hard, big guys who are in shape and can block other humans are not so easy to find. Does Huff come with Sean Taylor credentials? I think absolutely not, but even if he did, a #8 safety is a reach and a luxury that only good teams can afford. When Pitt took Palamalu (sic?) at 16, look what they had in place in front of him. Look who they had blocking on the other side For the Bills to take a safety at #8 would be the equivalent of putting a nice new roof on a house with rotten wood and a crumbling foundation. It might not be the exact model of stupidity and futility that drafting Parrish with our first selection was, but it would certainly be a move in this category. Other than the above, I think that grabbing a safety at #8 is a wonderful idea. 649885[/snapback] Given that we have little more than carp in the middle on both sides of the ball, I am highly inclined to agree. The Bills are going to lose a ton of games this year without some major influx of talent on both lines. As free agency has passed by with nothing but Triplett in tow, the draft appears to be the only help the Bills are going to get. On the other hand, the talent level of this team is woeful. They could draft a player at just about any position and it could easily be an upgrade. <huge sigh>
KOKBILLS Posted April 2, 2006 Posted April 2, 2006 I still have yet to hear a good reason why this team should even consider AJ Hawk 649803[/snapback] Good reason or not, if Hawk is there at #8, he is the newest member of the Buffalo Bills...It may not be the biggest Need right now, but if he lasted till #8, which I do not expect he will, Hawk would be BY FAR the best Player available IMHO. Furthermore, I think it's safe to assume both Levy and Jauron are going to be enamoured with Hawk. He's definitely the type of Player, and Leader they are looking for. Just plug him in somewhere and the Defense will improve. Plus you simply cannot assume TKO will be back at 100%. Sure we all hope that is the case, but with an Injury of that magnatude you just can't assume it.
Bill from NYC Posted April 2, 2006 Posted April 2, 2006 Then you might as well start driving nails with your forehead now. The lineman will come but the only OL ranked in the top 15 is Ferguson, who will be gone in the 1st 4 picks. Plenty of very good OG's and OT's will still be around in rounds 2 and 3 for us to select. Reaching for one in Round 1 is the difference between dumb/desperate teams and solid organizations which can see the whole picture beyond the end of the day. 649931[/snapback] Mark, imo there is another clear side to this equation. Rankings are one thing, production is quite another. History tells us that guys like Flo Adams and Marvel Smith were certainly first round talents, projections by the majority notwithstanding. Is it me, or have many all but given up on the ability of the Bills front office to find a diamond in the rough? Also, if the Bills had selected Marvel Smith (in lieu of Eric Flowers), I doubt if there would have been many complaints. What I am trying to say is that it is the responsibility of Levy and Modrak to find a good offensive tackle, draft him, and bring him to Buffalo. With the #8 selection in the draft, these guys should be able to to this, providing of course they stay away from RTs, who have a history of weight and injury problems.
stuckincincy Posted April 2, 2006 Posted April 2, 2006 Good reason or not, if Hawk is there at #8, he is the newest member of the Buffalo Bills...It may not be the biggest Need right now, but if he lasted till #8, which I do not expect he will, Hawk would be BY FAR the best Player available IMHO. Furthermore, I think it's safe to assume both Levy and Jauron are going to be enamoured with Hawk. He's definitely the type of Player, and Leader they are looking for. Just plug him in somewhere and the Defense will improve. Plus you simply cannot assume TKO will be back at 100%. Sure we all hope that is the case, but with an Injury of that magnatude you just can't assume it. 650078[/snapback] Indeed, Hawk would have to be the choice. And I'm not of the best-available school: If my foundation is cracked and my roof leaks, that comes before buying new windows or a spiffy backyard pool. Nothing is assured, tho - Cousineau, Bosworth, and Katzenmoyer spring to mind . Ugh. Although Boz' did have some good moments.
Pyrite Gal Posted April 2, 2006 Posted April 2, 2006 Good reason or not, if Hawk is there at #8, he is the newest member of the Buffalo Bills...It may not be the biggest Need right now, but if he lasted till #8, which I do not expect he will, Hawk would be BY FAR the best Player available IMHO. Furthermore, I think it's safe to assume both Levy and Jauron are going to be enamoured with Hawk. He's definitely the type of Player, and Leader they are looking for. Just plug him in somewhere and the Defense will improve. Plus you simply cannot assume TKO will be back at 100%. Sure we all hope that is the case, but with an Injury of that magnatude you just can't assume it. 650078[/snapback] If the unlikely were to actually happen (a kid can dream can't he) and AJ Hawk actually were to drop to the 8th pick it would bee great for the Bills! However, the greatest football benefit for us would not be found in selecting him, but in providing us with some great trade bait so we could move pick 8 to another team for additional resources which can help this team become a winner way sooner than it would even if Hawk played lights out LB. I see three possible scenarios if we in fact draft Hawk: A. He is a dud- I really doubt this happens from what I have seen iof him in college play. on the highlight reels, and at the Combine (unless he gets hurt which can happen to anyone and unless there is something about a player like previous injuries and no one can predict that, however, a team can minimize risks here by turning one pick into multiple choices by trading down). However, the draft is such a crap shoot (agin TD's assertion that 50% of 1st round choices disappoint remains unchallenged from what I've seen by a broad fact-based analysis) that even highly regarded players like Gallery end up struggling along with the more obvious over-reaches like Mamula. B. He is a solid pro eventually even making the Pro Bowl- This is the least I would expect of him from what iI have seen, but still even with this solid development and work this is a problematic pick by the Bills will judged to be a failure by many of the fans and all the media who love to insult and pile on. This would be the case, because unless Hawk is immediately a lights out player he will do a good chunk of his development on the bench. The Bills are already paying multi-millions to Fletch, TKO, and Crowell at LB. It would be fiscally the easiest thing in the world and probably intelligent from an individual player development perspective to let Hawk learn to be a vet by competing and working hard off the bench though breaking in at ST would be probably be more likely for him than LB )again this is assuming he is very good but not Lawrence Taylor lights out in quality). The media and more important the customer (who in our system of business is always right) will have a field day whining about the Bills not getting a player who could start immediately with pick #8. C. He is the second coming of LT and immediately plays lights out. This is great as Hawk is a likely leader of the Bills for years to come (barring injury to him). However, do not make the mistake of thinking there are no negatives which we will have to deal with if he is taken and becomes a great player. By taking this route we guarantee that several million dollars in salary will sit on the bench for the Bills in 06. Perhaps TKO never recovers )no sign whatsoever of this yet fortunately) but is Hawk so good we sit his salary if Hawk is the better WLB of the two? Fletch has put up great numbers for us being credited with more taqckles the last 5 years than any other NFL player. He easily once again led the Bills last year in tackles, perhaps a lights out Hawk is better than Fletch at MLB and we sit Fletch. We just signed Crowekk kong-term when we did not have to, but perhaps Hawk is so great that it makes no sense to move Crowell into Posey's spot and we sit him (in addition to cutting Posey. Whether Hawk turns out to be good, bad, or unclear, his highest footbsll value if he drops to #8 is for the Bills to trade down and still get a mid-rouder they can still use on a player likely Bunckley and a couple of other first day picks which will give us over 10 for the draft. I too hope AJ Hawk falls to 8 and then we quickly trade him to get help to reduce our reloading time rather than have him play and even if he is great it takes us even more time to rebuild given the large gaps left by going LB and to absorb the wasted salary sitting on the bench due to crowd at LB.
BB2004 Posted April 3, 2006 Posted April 3, 2006 The Bills pick 8th not 28th...only 7 guys will be drafted before the Bills pick so there will still be plenty of big name players on the board I just dont see this team Drafting Huff, I like him and would like to see the Bills draft him but I just dont think they put a lot of stock in their Safety's playing in their cover 2 I still have yet to hear a good reason why this team should even consider AJ Hawk 649803[/snapback] Have to think of Chris Speilman. This guy is talented and would make an impact right away.
grampalevy Posted April 3, 2006 Posted April 3, 2006 I've got a hunch Marv will trade out of the 1st round. It's just a hunch, but it fits into our lack of involvement with FA and Ralph's disapointment with the league's revenue sharing and CBA. It will anger many fans, but I don't think our owner is comfortable signing anymore big contracts and large bonuses. Marv's been entrusted with keeping the team competitive with the best bargain players available. Multiple picks in the 2nd to 4th round make more sense. I don't like it, but it wouldn't surprise me at all. 649807[/snapback]
BUFFALOTONE Posted April 3, 2006 Posted April 3, 2006 If AJ is there take him I seriously doubt that he will be but he is the 2nd best player in the draft and would make our defense that much better. London is going into his last year and is going to be taking a big piece of the cap. Hawk is a great pick with TKOs status being uncertain, I dont know about you all but he keeps talking about the "comeback" I just hope he can run again.
LabattBlue Posted April 3, 2006 Posted April 3, 2006 I see three possible scenarios if we in fact draft Hawk: A. He is a dud B. He is a solid pro eventually even making the Pro Bowl C. He is the second coming of LT and immediately plays lights out 650172[/snapback] I think you covered all the bases.
Sisyphean Bills Posted April 4, 2006 Posted April 4, 2006 I think you covered all the bases. 650851[/snapback] He could be somewhere between a bust and a solid pro. He could be a ticket sales gimmick or a special teams hanger-on (see Larry Izzo). And since when is a "solid pro" the same as a Pro Bowler? A Pro Bowler suggests a smidge above average, eh?
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