Mark VI Posted April 1, 2006 Share Posted April 1, 2006 When you're talking Top 10 $$, that's suicide. It's hard enough selecting the right player, when roughly 50 % of 1st round picks never turn out as advertised or become outright busts. The odds generally increase by 10 % with each subsequent round. Hardly an exact science. I laugh at all these fan driven ( zero football/scouting experience ) sites such as Kiper, Scott Wrights NFL Draft Countdown, PFT etc. who haven't any more ability to scout and judge talent than any of us. They make every player in the first 2-3 rounds sound so glorious and void of any shortcomings in the write ups. Most of them just steal from each other. Every draft pick has question marks and teams must pick the highest graded player available, regardless of position, to reduce the chance of blowing the pick. As I read Ourlads and the Sporting News, with write ups from actual experienced coaches and scouts, I can see every DT has a huge question mark in his profile. So I wouldn't feel real confident in a Ngata, Bunkley or Watson pick very early. Watson probably has the biggest upside but loafed often at Michigan. Maybe if we traded down but not at #8. You have to grade everyone out regardless of position and not be tempted by reaching for a need. Sometimes you get lucky and the highest rated player is a big need for your team. I doubt the Bills are looking at QB,WR and RB at #8 but who here really knows ? I can't see moving up in this draft. Bush, Leinart, Mario Williams, D'Brickshaw Ferguson look to be locks to vanish in the top 5-6 picks. We have too many holes to give up picks and gamble on 1 guy. We seem to need MORE picks. If offered the opportunity to trade down, we should take it. How popular QB's Cutler or Young are will decide if other desired players drop to our slot. If players like LB A.J. Hawk, S Michael Huff or TE Vernon Davis happen to drop to #8, you don't ignore them and reach for a lower rated Bunkley or Ngata. You pick the highest rated player and then move on. This is a solid draft, well into round 4 and beyond. Sharp GM's concentrate a little more on needs from round 2 on. NEVER in round 1 where the $$ factor is critical, especially in the top 15 slots. Take most of these Mock drafts at face value. They're a fun read but basically meaningless. We'll get a good talent with our first pick and probably several more by the time Day 2 is complete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted April 1, 2006 Share Posted April 1, 2006 I don't think Bunkley is a reach, at all. He'll be picked in the top 12, guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKBILLS Posted April 1, 2006 Share Posted April 1, 2006 I'm not saying I dislike Bunkley...But I would MUCH rather see the Bills Trade Down just a bit in the 1st Round and take either Nagata or Bunkley rather than staying put at #8 to grab either of them. I just like the idea of stockpiling Picks in this Draft. The Bills have so many Needs, and Trading Down a bit from that #8 Position could turn into quite a decent return in the long run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PNW_Bills_Fan Posted April 1, 2006 Share Posted April 1, 2006 You have to believe ML is looking at adding draft picks. Like I said before in my posts. ML is looking at building this team for the future with young talent, then he is going to pass this team off and go back into retirement. RW may have hired ML because he felt comfortable with ML, but Marv is a good football mind. He knows he only has a couple years to right this ship, and then he is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SDS Posted April 1, 2006 Share Posted April 1, 2006 That is precisely the way I would handle the draft Mark. Ther eis far too much turnover on any football team to assume "position X" is filled, so let's ignore superior 1st round talent and draft for a need prematurely. Now, I'm not saying the Ravens are the model NFL franchise - their coach is an assclown. But, they stay true to their board and draft guys like Lewis when Holmes is on the roster (keep in mind Holmes wasn't a superstar yet), Heap when Sharpe is there, etc... They end up with a ton of talent that gets mismanaged, but the talent is there. Draft superior players when you can and reduce your odds of getting burnt. With any luck, that star player will hang around for 8 years or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted April 1, 2006 Share Posted April 1, 2006 Great thread, and I agree 100%. Draft the best player available (within reason). Duh. I think the trap that a lot of Bills fans are falling into is trying to shore up ALL our weaknesses in one offseason. That's just not going to happen. Let's just get as many good players as we can and realize that it's going to take two offseasons at least to turn this team into a contender. In case anyone hasn't noticed, we're in full rebuilding mode. So if freaking Vernon Davis is available at #8, we sure as heck better draft him over Ngata. Need, schmeed. You take the player that has more superstar potential, and if we have to wait until next year to shore up the DT problem, then so be it. Oh, by the way, I hear you can get good DTs in the second round and on as well. Please don't draft Haloti Ngata at #8. Take Vernon. Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark VI Posted April 1, 2006 Author Share Posted April 1, 2006 I don't think Bunkley is a reach, at all. He'll be picked in the top 12, guaranteed. 649474[/snapback] After this past season was completed, he was initially rated as a 2nd round talent, which is still impressive. Played in the 280-285 lb. range during the year. Didn't always show consistency from game to game, which raised eyebrows. He receives an invite to the Senior Bowl and is graded in actual drills and game conditions. Ourlads scouting at the Senior Bowl on Bunkley.Only practiced two days...got hurt during the week...didn't look real athletic...movements in drills were herky jerky, not a smooth guy, good energy competitor, has some power and was disruptive against the run.Not a great pass rusher..2nd or 3rd round guy So he gains some weight and shows up at Indy, ready for the workout of his life. 44 reps at 225 catches everyones eye. Good measurables. His stock suddenly skyrockets. He hasn't played ANY football since he was seen as a 2nd round talent, so how did he improve as an actual football player ? His rising stock is more a leap of faith over actual gameday production. He will probably be a Top 15 pick now but any time I see this situation I think " Buyer Beware " . The gameday film rarely lies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crackur Posted April 1, 2006 Share Posted April 1, 2006 After this past season was completed, he was initially rated as a 2nd round talent, which is still impressive. Played in the 280-285 lb. range during the year. Didn't always show consistency from game to game, which raised eyebrows. He receives an invite to the Senior Bowl and is graded in actual drills and game conditions. Ourlads scouting at the Senior Bowl on Bunkley.Only practiced two days...got hurt during the week...didn't look real athletic...movements in drills were herky jerky, not a smooth guy, good energy competitor, has some power and was disruptive against the run.Not a great pass rusher..2nd or 3rd round guy So he gains some weight and shows up at Indy, ready for the workout of his life. 44 reps at 225 catches everyones eye. Good measurables. His stock suddenly skyrockets. He hasn't played ANY football since he was seen as a 2nd round talent, so how did he improve as an actual football player ? His rising stock is more a leap of faith over actual gameday production. He will probably be a Top 15 pick now but any time I see this situation I think " Buyer Beware " . The gameday film rarely lies. 649563[/snapback] I think he goes sooner than u think though in the first rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark VI Posted April 1, 2006 Author Share Posted April 1, 2006 I think he goes sooner than u think though in the first rd 649567[/snapback] I wrote He will probably be a Top 15 Pick above. I won't be upset no matter who we pick. I would be leery of certain players and he's one of them. Gameday film over workouts every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted April 1, 2006 Share Posted April 1, 2006 After this past season was completed, he was initially rated as a 2nd round talent, which is still impressive. Played in the 280-285 lb. range during the year. Didn't always show consistency from game to game, which raised eyebrows. He receives an invite to the Senior Bowl and is graded in actual drills and game conditions. Ourlads scouting at the Senior Bowl on Bunkley.Only practiced two days...got hurt during the week...didn't look real athletic...movements in drills were herky jerky, not a smooth guy, good energy competitor, has some power and was disruptive against the run.Not a great pass rusher..2nd or 3rd round guy So he gains some weight and shows up at Indy, ready for the workout of his life. 44 reps at 225 catches everyones eye. Good measurables. His stock suddenly skyrockets. He hasn't played ANY football since he was seen as a 2nd round talent, so how did he improve as an actual football player ? His rising stock is more a leap of faith over actual gameday production. He will probably be a Top 15 pick now but any time I see this situation I think " Buyer Beware " . The gameday film rarely lies. 649563[/snapback] I question whree you get some of your information? Watching the game, he was fairly consistent and solid every game. The guy doesnt take plays off or loaf at all. Also, not a great pass rusher? He did record 9 sacks this year, and 5.5 came in a stretch where we were missing our top DE. And bunkley was 1st round talent at the end of the season. He was kiper's #19 player overall and was projected to be taken in the 20's. So he jumped from low first round to high first round, not from 3rd round as you claim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crackur Posted April 2, 2006 Share Posted April 2, 2006 I wrote He will probably be a Top 15 Pick above. I won't be upset no matter who we pick. I would be leery of certain players and he's one of them. Gameday film over workouts every time. 649573[/snapback] I was showing emphasis with agreeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark VI Posted April 2, 2006 Author Share Posted April 2, 2006 He was kiper's #19 player overall and was projected to be taken in the 20's. So he jumped from low first round to high first round, not from 3rd round as you claim. 649593[/snapback] I didn't claim anything. I printed comments from an Ourlads scout. I realize you're a Seminole fan and I would have no problem drafting him. I do believe he doesn't carry a higher overall grade as a Hawk,Davis, Huff and a few others who may be available at #8. All goes back to the best athlete available theory in Round 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted April 2, 2006 Share Posted April 2, 2006 I didn't claim anything. I printed comments from an Ourlads scout. I realize you're a Seminole fan and I would have no problem drafting him. I do believe he doesn't carry a higher overall grade as a Hawk,Davis, Huff and a few others who may be available at #8. All goes back to the best athlete available theory in Round 1. 649709[/snapback] I agree with you on the best available at #8. I'd take ferg, nawk, super mario, and probably huff and possiblyt davis before bunkley. What scares me about ngata is that its been reported he needs to be motivated and sometimes takes plays off. But yes, definitely best available at #8. I'm assuming that Ferg, Hawk and Williams will be gone by #8, so i'd be happy with huff, bunkley, or davis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JÂy RÛßeÒ Posted April 2, 2006 Share Posted April 2, 2006 Gameday film over workouts every time. 649573[/snapback] Amen, brother! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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