ESPN Insider article on Moulds

[The_Real]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/col...r_kc&id=2387114

 

 

The only player to have generated significant interest around the league despite not being a free agent is Eric Moulds. Moulds has a $10.85 million cap number for the 2006 season, and the Bills have given him permission to seek a trade. As many as seven teams reportedly are interested in him.

 

One of the reasons Moulds wants to be traded is his unhappiness with the way he was used during the 2005 season. Moulds did catch 81 passes last year, ranking him 15th in the league in that category. However, he gained only 816 yards, 33rd in the league, and the 10.1 yards per reception ranked him 74th in the AFC. These numbers are down from his 2004 totals of 88 catches, 1,043 yards and 11.9 yards per reception.

 

The reduction in production would seem to suggest that Moulds has a legitimate complaint. I decided to conduct a metric analysis to see how his 2005 numbers compared with those of previous seasons.

 

First, here are his receiving metrics from the 2005 season:

 

Eric Moulds- 2005

Depth Attempts Comp Yards TD INT Pen Yds/Att

Short 91 68 545 2 1 9 6.1

Medium 20 10 167 0 1 4 8.6

Deep 17 3 104 2 1 20 7.3

Total 128 81 816 4 3 33 6.6

 

 

Now take a look at Moulds' 2004 metrics:

 

Eric Moulds- 2004

Depth Att Comp Yds TD INT Pen Yds/Att

Short 100 68 644 1 1 5 6.5

Medium 24 14 208 2 2 -5 8.5

Deep 24 6 191 2 3 28 9.1

Total 148 88 1043 5 6 28 7.2

 

 

These numbers are largely identical, particularly if we keep in mind that Moulds played in only 15 games in 2005 because of his suspension for violating team policy.

 

It might look as though the Bills were using Moulds more as a short pass receiver in 2005, but his role was almost identical in 2004. Last season, Moulds averaged 6.1 short pass attempts per game, compared with 6.3 in 2004. Moulds actually helped himself in this category by improving his short pass completion percentage by nearly 7percent from 2004 to 2005.

 

Moulds wants people to believe his vertical pass attempts were reduced last year, and he is technically correct. It was reduced from 48 medium/deep pass attempts in 2004 to 37 in 2005, but you have to factor in the difference in games. Once you factor that in, it only amounts to a .5 difference in attempts per game.

 

The reason Moulds doesn't catch many deep passes is he simply doesn't get open deep. One of the things I measure on every pass play is the degree to which the receiver was open. I track the number of steps a receiver was open by and whether the defender had what I term good coverage or tight coverage.

 

Calculating the number of steps is fairly basic. I simply look for the separation between the receiver and defender when the pass is thrown. Determining the quality of the coverage is more subjective. When a defender has good coverage, it will take a perfect pass by the quarterback to beat him. When a defender has tight coverage, even a perfect pass likely will not beat him.

 

During the 2004 season, Moulds ranked 85th out of 87 qualifying receivers in tight-good coverage percentage on deep passes. Moulds had tight or good coverage against him on 62.5 percent of his deep pass attempts that season, meaning it was highly unlikely the pass was going to be completed because he simply wasn't open.

 

His deep pass coverage metrics weren't much better in 2005. Moulds had tight or good coverage against him on nine of his 17 deep pass attempts, which equates to 53 percent of his deep passes.

 

Moulds still can be a significant player for the right team, provided he can accept the role his current skill set dictates he should fill. The Bills certainly still could use him as a possession receiver. The Texans are rumored to be very interested in Moulds, and they certainly could use a strong No. 2 receiver to complement Andre Johnson. The Eagles, Chiefs, 49ers, Broncos and Seahawks also certainly could use a reliable possession receiver.

 

The ball is in Moulds' court. If he markets himself as a possession receiver, he will have plenty of options. If he insists on being paid as a vertical threat, most teams are going to lose interest.

 

KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He has a Web site at http://thefootballscientist.com

 

Good read IMO.

 

T_R

[34-78-83]

All very valid points made by the guy. One thing that was interestingly missing from the results though was any mention of zone , or even double coverage. The analysis leads one to believe he (or any receiver) gets man coverage on every down...

[NorthWesternBill]

This is the best article i have read in 6 months... it also changes my view of eric's situation..how big is the paycut they want him to take? If it is not drastic then he is either being silly or just does not want to play in buffalo.

[Fastro]

All very valid points made by the guy. One thing that was interestingly missing from the results though was any mention of zone , or even double coverage. The analysis leads one to believe he (or any receiver) gets man coverage on every down...

645155[/snapback]

 

Good point. When you are the main go-to-guy for the QB you receive a lot more attention. Of course, what is also not mentioned is separation speed. If I remember correctly, Moulds 40 in 1996 was in the 4.5s. Not blazing but good. I couldn't find anything online to validate that but it seems to stick in my memory. If he has lost a step, then it is even that much harder to get open deep. A quick cut at 6-8 yards is probably easier to complete than a 15 yard down and out. Also, one thing to consider is yards after the catch. If he didn't have or doesn't have the blazing speed anymore, its hard to add yards on to the quick pass to drive up the yards/reception.

[Nanker]

Articles like this really piss me off.

Not once do they mentioin Eric's spitting.

Not ONCE!

I think that was a key technique he used to get separation from Sam Madison.

Another technique that got him tremendous separation from the D Backs was his suspension technique. Not a single D Back laid a hand on him while he was suspended. Not one!

 

There's nothing new here. EM's alternate up and down years have been thoroughly chronicled ad nauseum. In fact EM has been given more space on TBD in the last three weeks than he's gotten in his entire career. You know how many pixels have died talking about that guy? I'll tell you: A lot.

[scribo]

Outstanding article. Finally someone from E$PN who really studies what he is talking about.

 

A few take aways from this:

 

First, maybe the knock on Holcomb for never going deep is a bit unjustified. Maybe he just saw exactly this and decided Moulds would be much better used on short, possesion routes. Of course, this article doesn't talk about whether Evans was getting open down field.

 

Second, this could also explain some of J.P.'s struggles last year. With his excellent arm strength, he seems to be more suited for a vertical passing game. Well, how effective is such a game plan going to be if your #1 receiver isn't getting open down field? This can be further backed up by looking at how well J.P. hooked up with Evans in the Miami game, when Evans was in effect being used as the #1 receiver.

 

This all points to one thing -- Moulds needs to accept reality; he is getting old, and he is slowing down. That is nothing of which to be ashamed. Rather, he should adapt to nature and become a star possesion receiver (for a good deal less money).

[Lurker]

"I track the number of steps a receiver was open by and whether the defender had what I term good coverage or tight coverage. "

 

WTF? Does this guy have access to coaches game film? I can't see how anybody watching a network broadcast feed of all 16 games can get that kind of detailed read.

 

Leaving "facts" aside for the moment and going with his argument that EM doesn't get much seperation, I've always felt that is part of his game rather than a flaw.

 

Moulds plays like a power forward rather than a Lee Evans-type were seperation is everything. He's always used his strength to shield DBs and create a physical mismatch, even if they are in position to cover him. He's still one of the best WR's in the league in running quick slants, IMO.

[scribo]

"I track the number of steps a receiver was open by and whether the defender had what I term good coverage or tight coverage. "

 

WTF?  Does this guy have access to coaches game film?  I can't see how anybody watching a network broadcast feed of all 16 games can get that kind of detailed read.

 

Leaving "facts" aside for the moment and going with his argument that EM doesn't get much seperation, I've always felt that is part of his game rather than a flaw. 

 

Moulds plays like a power forward rather than a Lee Evans-type were seperation is everything.  He's always used his strength to shield DBs and create a physical mismatch, even if they are in position to cover him.  He's still one of the best WR's in the league in running quick slants, IMO.

645275[/snapback]

I've watched Moulds play for years -- in person, and he use to get much better seperation. So, for a receiver who plays like you describe, should the QB just throw to him every time? I mean, how would a QB know if a WR is "open" if he is really open when he is covered?

[Coach Tuesday]

"I track the number of steps a receiver was open by and whether the defender had what I term good coverage or tight coverage. "

 

WTF?  Does this guy have access to coaches game film? 

645275[/snapback]

 

Actually, yes he does. Here is his website:

 

http://www.thefootballscientist.com/

 

"Pro Football's Premier Game Tape Analyst"

[jester43]

yeah i like how this guy tries to quantify something that you can really only "eyeball" by watching broadcasts. "i tracked the number of steps" my ass!

 

but that said, i not only agree with his premise, i take it a step further....moulds hasn't been able to get open deep for YEARS. he's still a very good receiver, one that should not be let go unless a very good player or a first-day draft pick, but it's been a long time since he's been a deep threat...so long i can barely remember it!

 

of course, "the scientist" doesn't take into account bad play calling, and the bills just being outcoached, both of which lead to players not being able to get open as well. but the bottom line is that moulds should not expect to call his shots with regard to being traded to a contender. he's just not good enough any more to call his shots in that way.

[Lurker]

Actually, yes he does.  Here is his website:

 

http://www.thefootballscientist.com/

 

"Pro Football's Premier Game Tape Analyst"

645287[/snapback]

 

No, actually he doesn't:

 

I do this by reviewing game tapes. Last year I recorded over 95% of the NFL's games and broke them down with my unique game-tape scouting system.

 

Fug'n guy's just taking the network feed. He's seeing the exact same "film" as you or I.

[Tortured Soul]

Second, this could also explain some of J.P.'s struggles last year. With his excellent arm strength, he seems to be more suited for a vertical passing game. Well, how effective is such a game plan going to be if your #1 receiver isn't getting open down field? This can be further backed up by looking at how well J.P. hooked up with Evans in the Miami game, when Evans was in effect being used as the #1 receiver.

645267[/snapback]

I still have that play at the end of the Carolina game running on a loop in my head when I think of JP throwing deep to Moulds.

[Lurker]

I've watched Moulds play for years -- in person, and he use to get much better seperation. So, for a receiver who plays like you describe, should the QB just throw to him every time? I mean, how would a QB know if a WR is "open" if he is really open when he is covered? 

645280[/snapback]

 

Actually, I'd still throw to him. I too watched him in person too for much of his career, and for a gunslinger QB like Kelly or Farve--who's confident enough to throw into tight coverage trusting the WR will still make the catch--I think EM can still be quite effective.

 

The problem as I see it, is that Moulds needs to play with a strong-armed veteran QB who's not be afraid of tight coverage. DB did it his first year here. But last year, JP was just too green and wouldn't throw into tight coverage. That's probably why he and EM never seemed to be on the same page. Moulds wanted the ball, but JP wasn't taking the chance. When KH took over, it wasn't any better since his noodle arm wasn't strong enough to throw that type of pass.

 

On long balls, I've always felt EM was content to get a one-step lead on the DB and then use his position to keep them from making a play, even if he wasn't running down the field at 4.3 speed. The QB still had to have the the cajones to throw the ball anyway, and damn the consequences, let Eric fight for the ball.

 

I think Eric could still be a very productive player if he had Mr. Chunky Soup or Farve as his QB.

[Coach Tuesday]

No, actually he doesn't:

 

I do this by reviewing game tapes.  Last year I recorded over 95% of the NFL's games and broke them down with my unique game-tape scouting system.

 

Fug'n guy's just taking the network feed.  He's seeing the exact same "film" as you or I.

645298[/snapback]

 

Aren't "game tapes" the coach's tapes? Sorry if I got that wrong, but I thought that's what he was saying.

[Fan in Chicago]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/col...r_kc&id=2387114

 

The ball is in Moulds' court. If he markets himself as a possession receiver, he will have plenty of options. If he insists on being paid as a vertical threat, most teams are going to lose interest.

 

KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He has a Web site at http://thefootballscientist.com

 

Good read IMO. 

 

T_R

645130[/snapback]

 

You guys do realize, don't you, that articles such as these may reduce his trade value ? And on the flip side, EM may choose to ignore this information creating a major mis-match between what a team is willing to offer, what the Bills want and what EM wants.

[dave mcbride]

yeah i like how this guy tries to quantify something that you can really only "eyeball" by watching broadcasts.  "i tracked the number of steps" my ass!  

 

but that said, i not only agree with his premise, i take it a step further....moulds hasn't been able to get open deep for YEARS.  he's still a very good receiver, one that should not be let go unless a very good player or a first-day draft pick, but it's been a long time since he's been a deep threat...so long i can barely remember it!

 

of course, "the scientist" doesn't take into account bad play calling, and the bills just being outcoached, both of which lead to players not being able to get open as well.  but the bottom line is that moulds should not expect to call his shots with regard to being traded to a contender.  he's just not good enough any more to call his shots in that way.

645293[/snapback]

i am absolutely convinced that the groin tear added at least .1 second to his 40 time. that was the beginning of the decline. as you may recall, he played exceedingly well in the first few games of the 2002 season - against the pats, the jags, and cincy in particular.

[jester43]

good point.

[Lurker]

Aren't "game tapes" the coach's tapes?  Sorry if I got that wrong, but I thought that's what he was saying.

645361[/snapback]

 

Nobody outside the NFL (other than Jaws on his show) gets access to actual coaches game tapes. Those are state secrets.

 

The guy's using semantics, IMO, to make it seem like he's an insider. He's probably some geek in momma's basement with a bunch of DVRs who'd make the late Joel Buschbaum look like a he-man in comparison.

[ganesh]

All very valid points made by the guy. One thing that was interestingly missing from the results though was any mention of zone , or even double coverage. The analysis leads one to believe he (or any receiver) gets man coverage on every down...

645155[/snapback]

 

The biggest thing I see the difference between Moulds and other Top-Tier

WRs is the # of TDs he gets....especially in the redzone

[Lurker]

The biggest thing I see the difference between Moulds and other Top-Tier

WRs is the # of TDs he gets....especially in the redzone

645467[/snapback]

 

Where strong, accurate throws and screening out the DB matter more than separation, BTW.