How much is Moulds worth?

[Pyrite Gal]

I hate tp start yet another EM thread, but I keep seeing the same untruths on this particular issue pop up again and again so I want to try to focus on this particular issue.

 

It strikes me that the flat out fact which folks seem to want to disagree with is that:

 

Eric Moulds is worth different things to different teams.

 

If you are a team you judge to a player away from an SB and that player is a WR who even though he is on the backside of his career his prescence will allow your other receiver to avoid double coverage or Moulds will now be able to play against single coverage he is worth you trading a very early pick for him.

 

Alternately, if your team already has two good receivers, OR has limited cap room, or is several years away from winning, then Moulds is not even worth a 7th rounder to you.

 

Another wrinkle to put in this is that the NFL used to be a sport that happened to be a business and now its a business that happens to be a sport. A team may have little chance to win, but if you can get a WR who has some great highlight reel catches in his career and you can market his prescence to put butts in the seats even though it is unlikely your team will go far, he may be worth trading for.

 

Is Eric Moulds worth a first day draft choice to a team?

 

My guess is probably yes. I have long had my eye on the Broncos. They have Pro Bowler Rod Smith as their go-to guy but Aashlie Leilie who has great speed does not scare me at #2. If this team were able to line-up Moulds with Smith with Lelie in 2 WR sets, this O would be very tough to deal with.

 

Further, the Broncs have two #1s in April's draft so there is future value here to move for a player who helps my team now.

 

In addition, if I am the Broncs, I am wondering whether I can simply get Moulds for no trade cost when he hits FA. However, he will go through waivers first with weaker teams having first dibs. At the $7 million base salary, this is a chunk for them, but with the cap # raised significantly do i want to pass this opportunity by?

 

Maybe, maybe not, but this is why I express interest and talk to Moulds and see what he will agree to and I talk to the Bills and try to give as little to them as possioble.

 

Moulds folks actually report there are as many as 8 teams interested in him and some like Philly who are looking to excite their fans and reinvigorate their team by filling the TO hole at WR may have a reason to get Moulds if they can negotiate the right price for him.

 

If I am the Broncs or Philly (or maybe one of the other parties who allegedly have expressed interest, I am I willing to part with a 1st day pick for Moulds? Yeah quite easily I would give up a 3rd rounder for him as long as I can make a deal with him to lower his cap hit.

 

If I am Detroit and I have two recent first rounders on my roster at WR then I would not trade any pick whatsoever for Moulds. He is not worth anything to me.

 

Even if I am in the hunt for a WR I might see better ways to build my team than to give up a 1st for him (particularly if I am Philly) so i would not give up a 1st rounder for him. However, if folks believe that a pig will fly before they see a team trade any first day pick for him. I'm actually gluing wings on old Porky and putting him in a launcher as we speak.

 

We may not get a first day pick but if we do not a big reason will be that Marv did not hang tough. I Moulds is due a million buck roster bonus when camp opens this summer, but until then the only reason to move him is whining fans and I hope Marv ignores us.

[PromoTheRobot]

I would be disappointed if all we got for Moulds was a #4. He should be worth no less than a #2, if not a #1. I know the story being floated is we are asking for a #4. I hope the strategy was to get a bidding war started. I also hope the Pats are not a team we are talking to.

 

PTR

[CircleTheWagons]

We may not get a first day pick but if we do not a big reason will be that Marv did not hang tough. I Moulds is due a million buck roster bonus when camp opens this summer, but until then the only reason to move him is whining fans and I hope Marv ignores us.

643778[/snapback]

Are you saying that Moulds will be worth more the longer we hold on to him - if we settle for a 5th now, Levy screwed up because he could have got a 3rd later?

 

If that's what your suggesting, then remember that a higher draft pick later will be for 2007 draft, not the 2006 and will have unknown value based on that's team performance next year.

 

Second, everyone else who thinks Moulds has any trade value seems to believe that we have the power NOW, rather than later because of teams filling out their roster, losing cap space, and going in other directions by training camp. Also the closer we get to camp, the closer we are to paying that roster bonus.

 

I will be happy if we can get anything for him - I still think there is a good chance he gets cut before training camp.

[Pyrite Gal]

All I'm saying is that there is NO hard and fast rule which applies to every case when trying to judge Moulds value.

 

Look at the Travis Henry example (again not to compare some fantasy value for TH as a player vs, some fantasy value for Moulds particularly since any assignment of a flat value to any one player is a fiction) in the last trade.

 

TD did a great job by holding out on a trade until after the draft. He got a 2006 3rd for Henry instead of whatever was offered after 3 RBs went in the first round because the market for RBs was satisfied by the draft. Did he get hosed because he did not trade Travis for a second day choice we picked last year. Not in my view (and I suspect not in most folks view right now as the Bills team sucked so bad last year a 2nd day pick would have not made much of a difference and we are pleased to have 4 first picks this year).

 

We're at least a year awau from seriously competing to go deep in the playoffs, and if my choice is for Moulds is between a 4th rounder this year or a 2nd or 1st rounder next year, I take next year's pick in a New York minute.

 

I think one of the side effects of the interest in fantasy league play is that most fans over-value the draft anyway. I have seen no credible analysis that demonstrates TD was wrong when he estimated that even first round choices were 50/50 chances at best. I hope we move Moulds but actually I would love to see us get another player (difficult to do under salary cap constraints) because a vet who played before is easier to plan with than a draft choice.

 

However, I do not think that the market folds up with this draft. In fact it becomes much clearer who wants and needs a player and it becomes much easier for teams to part with some pretty high picks because future choices cannot help a team this year at all.

 

This calculus makes it impossible for a team that feels it can win it all this year to trade in return for a future pick, but it makes it actually much easier for a team like ours which is at least a year away to secure a high pick next year.

[cåblelady]

I got a quarter.

[turftoe]

I would make sure there was some form of a conditional pick involved. If Moulds goes to another team and then makes the Pro-Bowl then I would ask for another mid round pick next year. I would probably settle for a #4 this year if a conditional pick was involved. If he gets hurt or performs at a sub-par level then the team has nothing else at stake.

If Houston were the team, I would also consider taking their 4th round pick if we could swap second round picks this year.

[Bill from NYC]

We're at least a year awau from seriously competing to go deep in the playoffs, and if my choice is for Moulds is between a 4th rounder this year or a 2nd or 1st rounder next year, I take next year's pick in a New York minute.

 

643840[/snapback]

 

I fully agree, but you confuse me. On another thread (today), you down played the importance of the draft in terms of building a football team.

 

Which is it?

[mead107]

I fully agree, but you confuse me. On another thread (today), you down played the importance of the draft in terms of building a football team.

 

Which is it?

643849[/snapback]

witch is it ?????? now that is funny

[superbowl]

I would be disappointed if all we got for Moulds was a #4.  He should be worth no less than a #2, if not a #1.  I know the story being floated is we are asking for a #4.  I hope the strategy was to get a bidding war started.  I also hope the Pats are not a team we are talking to.

 

PTR

643781[/snapback]

 

I agree wholeheartedly with you on this. If we were to trade to the Texans we could swap #1 picks and give them our third pick (one or both, depending) as well as Moulds. This is something that we should at least look at.

[shibuya]

Their are multiple teams very interested in Moulds.... Why ? Because he still has ability and a ton of experience. He'd improve any team making a run for a SB, and any team that thinks there close and believes Moulds can help will sacrafice a little extra.

 

 

I think will get at least a day 1 pick for EM, and the possibility of more is definitely there.

[Bill from NYC]

I think will get at least a day 1 pick for EM, and the possibility of more is definitely there.

643879[/snapback]

 

More than a first day pick? I would like to hear a few scenarios if you don't mind.

Do you think that maybe we can get a pair of first rounders?

[DCM]

More than a first day pick? I would like to hear a few scenarios if you don't mind.

Do you think that maybe we can get a pair of first rounders?

643900[/snapback]

 

 

No......you only get 2-1's for pro bowl running backs like Travis Henry.

[Pyrite Gal]

More than a first day pick? I would like to hear a few scenarios if you don't mind.

Do you think that maybe we can get a pair of first rounders?

643900[/snapback]

 

I suspect he means that we would trade EM for a player or players who would contribute right away. I think many vets who have played the game before are of greater worth than a draft pick. TD estimated (even before MW flamed out) that its 50/50 success for even a 1st round pick. Judging from the fabulous effects of episodes such as Ryan Leaf, Mike Wiiliams and Joey Harrington, I can see why this theory from the hated one remains uncontroverted by any detailed case or proof beyond statement of the usual fact-free opinions.

 

The draft is not a bad or worthless thing (to answer the question someone asked me above about where I stand on the draft). Good players have to come from somewhere and most of the good players get drafted.

 

However, IMHO given the time it takes even many of the good ones to develop (EM had two goshawful years to start) and HOF players like Steve Young and Brett Favre (a future HOF player ) bad enough initially to be traded. Add in the increased speed of turnover in this league and the huge contracts slotted to players and the draft ranks a distance behind making quality FA pick-ups and geting great UDFAs in my judgment as critical to building a great team.

 

The draft is important but is an important but subordinate method for team building. In fact, as far as the draft goes our fantasy league inspired psychosis gets us to focus on the first day when there is a good case to be made that first day picks are for show but it is the second day where a Tom Brady is found where the dough is really earned.

[Buftex]

Look at the Travis Henry example (again not to compare some fantasy value for TH as a player vs, some fantasy value for Moulds particularly since any assignment of a flat value to any one player is a fiction) in the last trade.

 

TD did a great job by holding out on a trade until after the draft.  He got a 2006 3rd for Henry instead of whatever was offered after 3 RBs went in the first round because the market for RBs was satisfied by the draft.  Did he get hosed because he did not trade Travis for a second day choice we picked last year.  Not in my view (and I suspect not in most folks view right now as the Bills team sucked so bad last year a 2nd day pick would have not made much of a difference and we are pleased to have 4 first picks this year).

 

 

643840[/snapback]

 

 

Actually, the Travis Henry situation was much different. If I recall, TD waited until right up til training camp opened, to trade Henry. He had this luxury with Henry because Henry was making peanuts, especially compared to what Moulds is scheduled to make. TD could have kept Henry, but because he was making little, TD was able to wait for a need for Henry to develop. Marv doesn't have that same luxury with Moulds. Any team wanting Moulds knows that he is being released to save money, not becase he can't play any more.

 

Unfortunately, money always plays a role. The Bills are not letting Moulds go because they feel like they don't really need him (as with Henry) it is simply that they don't want to pay him as much as they would have to, to retain him. Henry was obviously not a starter for Buffalo, Moulds would be, if on the roster in 2006.

[Oneonta Buffalo Fan]

I would be disappointed if all we got for Moulds was a #4.  He should be worth no less than a #2, if not a #1.  I know the story being floated is we are asking for a #4.  I hope the strategy was to get a bidding war started.  I also hope the Pats are not a team we are talking to.

 

PTR

643781[/snapback]

 

That's crazy. If we ask for a #1 or #2, no one in this league would trade with the Bills at that kind of a price. A 4th round pick is an average trade, we should be thankful if we get anything out of a trade.

[Pyrite Gal]

Actually, the Travis Henry situation was much different.  If I recall, TD waited until right up til training camp opened, to trade Henry.  He had this luxury with Henry because Henry was making peanuts, especially compared to what Moulds is scheduled to make.  TD could have kept Henry, but because he was making little, TD was able to wait for a need for Henry to develop.  Marv doesn't have that same luxury with Moulds.  Any team wanting Moulds knows that he is being released to save money, not becase he can't play any more. 

 

Unfortunately, money always plays a role.  The Bills are not letting Moulds go because they feel like they don't really need him (as with Henry) it is simply that they don't want to pay him as much as they would have to, to retain him.  Henry was obviously not a starter for Buffalo, Moulds would be, if on the roster in 2006.

644107[/snapback]

Money does always play a role in this sport that used to happen to be a business and now is a business which happens to be a sport.

 

However, though Moulds is not worth the $10 million cap hit at his level of play, the costs are such that the Bills if necessary can in fact pay and hang onto Moulds.

 

1. Cash flow seems to be what this is all about from a business perspective and the Moulds base salary would diminish the Bills take in '06 but would come no where near to whipping it out. This payment would be an example of the cash over cap issue which is all the rage in discusiion. The cap hit for a huge Moulds base salary payment is already accounted for in the salary cap and even with we ae still several million below the cap and in the middle of the pack in terms of available cap space.

 

While the Bills are under obvious pressure to reduce the Moulds hit, they are under no mandate to do this anytime soon.

 

2. Apparently there is a roster bonus of a mill due Moulds on June 1st (folks like BADOL maintain June 1st makes no difference anymore, but it is the use of this date for the payment of roster bonuses which does make a difference in terms of player movements even if there is less worry about allocating cap hits over future seasons as cap management has improved in NFL teams. The Bills MIGHT want to release Moulds by June 1st in order to avoid this roster bonus payment and MIGHT actually want to cut him prior to June 1st in order for the entire accelerated cap hit to occur in 2006 and not have it on the books in 2007 when we have a more serious shot at a run.

 

3. If the Bills wait until June 1st to cut Moulds (which they can do as they are not even mandated by the cash to cut him at all) it greatly disadvantages Moulds. Teams who want WRs may in fact take one from the paltry WR takings in this draft and Moulds will lose negotiating levereage (I think this is why they are in such an all fire hurray to move the process along). In order to provide the best market for him to cut a deal he needs to makes a deal now. It interests me that there have been some pretty strident comments about Moulds being gone that have come from his camp, but they all have come from his agent from what I have seen rather than him. While his agent speaks for him, there may be a little space for back-pedaling if they choose to do this.

 

This is unlikely and we are a ways away fon this, but it is interesting Marv has left him room to do this with his consistent prononcements that they value Moulds as a Bill.

 

Overall, no one (certainly including me) knows for sure and it will be interesting to see what develops, the major break that things are actually going our way would be if Moulds himself actually made some conciliatory statements or even changed agent personnel. One game we have seen played is that an agency (ala Jerry Maguire) has multiple people working for it. If Greg Johnson is playing the bad cop cop being strident uo front to flush potential game in the market and then if Moulds is not satisified with the offers he then "hires" a new agent (though the new agent works for the same firm as Greg Johnson), he can take a stance that he has been displeased with the tone his agent (Johnson) took and now he has hired a new guy or will enter the negotiations himself to form the best deal possible for all sides with his good friend Marv Levy.

 

In a perfect likely fantasy world for the Bills, Marv has actually told Moulds they want to pay him as long planned a lower base salary than $7 million. Moulds says fine since massaging his cap hit is good for his team and teammates, but also says he will not take less than the market offers.

 

The Bills have given him permission to survey the market and get the best deal he can. He will come back to the Bills within the 48 hours Johnson predicted and state what the Texans or some other team will give him.

 

marv can confirm that amount or take Moulds at his word and offer to match the market if he chooses to keep Moulds a Bill.

 

IMHO this would be the best outcome for us, but we will see.

[Adam]

Further, the Broncs have two #1s in April's draft so there is future value here to move for a player who helps my team now. 

643778[/snapback]

 

The Broncs? Did Texas-Pan American add football? Is he still eligible to play college ball?