Quantifying Free Agency

[Mikie2times]

A large part of our draft strategy in April will be decided by the players available in Free Agency. That is to say if the FA market is very deep at a need area and the draft is very thin at that position it would make sense to address the position threw FA. Most people have grasped this concept and talk about FA value at certain positions as common knowledge, I'm guilty of doing the same thing. In fact before I started this project I felt capable of rating the players, that is until I ran across enough Bob Smiths to know that Tennessee 6th WR is not somebody I know much about. The very best we can do is use the information available via the internet to "fill in the gaps" about players we might not be familiar with.

 

What I have done is taken the rankings of this Scout FA Rankings and created a means of ranking the overall FA class position by position. It's not perfect, as the system relies on scouts ratings, but overall it captured my intended purpose, and that was to shed some light on our cuts and to see which areas should be addressed threw FA’s. For the results you can just scroll down, but without reading the Methodology the number won't be very insightful.

 

Methodology-

First off scout rates FA's from 1-5 stars with 5 being the best. For study I broke down these star ratings into 3 categories. Players 3 stars and up count as immediate starters, 2 star players are decent back ups/weak starters, and 1 star player are career back ups. I separated all the FA's into these groups by position and then removed all franchised players, and RFA's. I wanted this list to represent readily available players and it's unlikely we will go after 1 or more RFA's.

 

The last thing I did was break each position down into two categories. The first category is amount of starters each team usually has at that position, the second was the amount of back ups each team has at that position. The reason I did that was to take into account the demand for more players at certain positions. For example if the market has 8 starting caliber WR's, and 5 starting caliber centers it doesn't mean it's deeper at WR since teams usually employ 2 or more starting receivers. The exact numbers I used for each position are based on the average number of players as starters and back ups at that position threw out the league. The final number ends up representing the number of teams that could fill the entire position with the caliber of FA listed.

 

EX

Position: QB

Starting Caliber Players: 3

Decent Back Ups/Weak Starters: 8

Career Back Ups: 14

NFL Average Amount of Starters Per Team: 1

NFL Average Amount of Back Ups Per Team: 2

 

Divide 3 (Starting Caliber Players) by 1 (NFL Average Amount of Starters Per Team)= 3 (Teams that can get a starting caliber QB)

 

Repeat the same process for the decent back Ups/Weak Starters and Career Back Ups category but divide it by the NFL Average Amount of Back Ups per Team.

 

Results

 

Number of teams that could fill each position with starting caliber players

SS-7

RB-6

C-5

CB-3.6

DT-3.5

WR-3.2

OLB-3

QB-3

OT-2.5

FS-2

FB-2

DE-2

MLB-.67

TE-.67

OG-.67

 

Number of Teams that could fill each position with Decent Back Ups/Poor Starters

MLB-12.6

OLB-8.5

FS-8

TE-8

DT-7.5

OT-7.5

RB-6

WR-6

FB-6

CB-5.6

SS-4.6

QB-4

DE-4

OG-4

C-3

 

Number of Teams that could fill each position with Career Backups

TE-14

QB-14

RB-10

OLB-8

FS-8

FB-8

SS-8

C-7

DE-5.5

CB-4.8

DT-4.5

WR-4.4

OT-4

MLB-3.3

OG-2.5

[Pyrite Gal]

Way cool and thanx!!!

[MartyBall4Buffalo]

I concur very cool and thanks for the info, A lot of it is what I basically assumed. Theres a lot of good safeties to be had in this draft. Which I'd definitly prefer to go the draft route on. DT looks like a position unless you're taking one with your 1st 2 rounds you'd be better off going through free agency. I'd still like to trade down in the first and grab bunkley and use accquired picks to adress center and ss. I'd like to adress wr through free agency. We dont need some all star just a fresh body who can catch. This is a good year from te's if not vernon davis Dominique Byrd from USC would be a great option if we can sneak him in the 3rd.

[Mikie2times]

Thanks for the comments, this is overkill for some but I knew some of the junkies would appreciate it. Overall I’m very happy with the position Marv has put us in as we enter FA. First off when you look at each position we cut the market generally has an abundance players with similar value. For example if you want a decent back up/poor starter at WR ala Josh Reed the market is filled. Same with Starting C, and SS etc. What this also shows is what ways we could be leaning in the draft. Decent FA DT's are not as scarce as some are making it out to be, while TE, FS, and OG all are. That means Huff and Davis could very well supplant Ngata, and a day 1 OG seems like a high probablity choice.

[stuckincincy]

Thanks for the comments, this is overkill for some but I knew some of the junkies would appreciate it. Overall I’m very happy with the position Marv has put us in as we enter FA. First off when you look at each position we cut the market generally has an abundance players with similar value. For example if you want a decent back up/poor starter at WR ala Josh Reed the market is filled. Same with Starting C, and SS etc.  What this also shows is what ways we could be leaning in the draft. Decent FA DT's are not as scarce as some are making it out to be, while TE, FS, and OG all are. That means Huff and Davis could very well supplant Ngata, and a day 1 OG seems like a high probablity choice.

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Thanks, Mike - I enjoy your various analyses. I know folks say that stats aren't always valid - and that's so. But OTHO, who is capable of critically reviewing the thousands of plays, players, and game situations?

[scribo]

Great job and thanks, Mike. It does not look like a decent year to be looking for staring guards in FA.

[VABills]

But Josh Reed as two stars. He sucks, he shouldn't be on any team. How can he have 2 stars that makes him a good backup/weak starter. We all know he should be handing out ketchup at Micky D's.

[Rubes]

That was really interesting and useful. Thanks.