What should we do about North Korea?

[KRC]

I can't see China allowing an actual war with Japan, since they'd lose not gain anything.

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You are absolutely correct. There is no way China will allow a war with Japan. China does not want any military action at all by the DPRK, which includes a military takeover of the ROK. If the DPRK invades the ROK, then I see no reason why they wouldn't attack Japan as well. Even if it is just lobbing a few goodies towards Japan during the invasion of the ROK. Diversion for the U.S. Which is the main target: Japan or the ROK?

[Taro T]

Interesting points, but wouldn't nK lose the very resources it was trying to gain. ROK has a pretty big economy, who would nK trade with? Seoul would be reduced to rubble. I'd say that the war itself would reduce the timeline to shithole faster than a couple years. Plus, ROK playing nice with DPRK is probably going a long way to make that less attractive.

 

As for Taiwan, I don't think that there is going to be much trouble as long as Taiwan doesn't make it. It's become more and more of a ideology issue than a practical one, with the growing of the Chinese economy and influence in other parts of the world. A shooting war with the US is going to derail Chinas train. They have better ways to marginalize us than that. But, the threat is always there and they are gearing their military and also infrastructure to protect their interests once they gain them. I see some more moves to control the Indian Ocean region rather than going after Taiwan.

612612[/snapback]

I expect that it would end up disasterous for DPRK and ROK for KJI to preemptively strike, but if KJI sees an opportunity to create a legacy I thought it would be something they might consider.

 

Ken's points about Japan are very interesting, maybe that would be a way for him to stake his place in history, so to speak. Although I would hope that he would realize that course of action could very likely end with the Korean peninsula reunited under Southern control. (That would beget another question, would China be willing to let Korea reunite under ROK control, if it were in direct response to an unproved attack by DPRK on Japan; rather than face the possibility of WW III when the US defended Japan?)

 

If Seoul fell in a preemptive attack, would the rest of the country necessarily have to be decimated for DPRK to assume control of the whole country? I assume fighting would continue, but I don't have a good feel for how fierce it would be.

 

I am certain that the US, Japan, and some other Western countries would impose trade sanctions on the newly unified Korea; but would China allow the UN to impose sanctions knowing that sanctions would turn the entire peninsula into the basket case that the Northern half had been? If China were to come around within a couple of years to seeing this not as not necessarily being a bad thing (IF there were a way to keep Korea economically viable, China's influence in SE Asia would necessarily increase and that of the US and Japan would diminish.) Note, China doesn't have to necessarily be unwilling to impose/support sanctions for this scenario to become viable; if KJI THINKS China may go along with it in some way, would he be willing to do this?

 

Your and Ken's answer lead me to believe that the answer to the question is NO. I truly hope you are correct as this does provide more time for multilateral talks to succeed.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

You are absolutely correct. There is no way China will allow a war with Japan. China does not want any military action at all by the DPRK, which includes a military takeover of the ROK. If the DPRK invades the ROK, then I see no reason why they wouldn't attack Japan as well. Even if it is just lobbing a few goodies towards Japan during the invasion of the ROK. Diversion for the U.S. Which is the main target: Japan or the ROK?

612680[/snapback]

 

They've certainly got the economic and military resources for a short war, but really, I think they'd be toast in the long term. China would cut them off at the scrotum and we'd eventually bomb the bejeezus out of them.

[KRC]

They've certainly got the economic and military resources for a short war, but really, I think they'd be toast in the long term. China would cut them off at the scrotum and we'd eventually bomb the bejeezus out of them.

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There is no question that they cannot win in the end, but they will do a hell of a lot of damage in the meantime.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

There is no question that they cannot win in the end, but they will do a hell of a lot of damage in the meantime.

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Indeed. Japan has no nukes, yes?

[Ghost of BiB]

You are absolutely correct. There is no way China will allow a war with Japan. China does not want any military action at all by the DPRK, which includes a military takeover of the ROK. If the DPRK invades the ROK, then I see no reason why they wouldn't attack Japan as well. Even if it is just lobbing a few goodies towards Japan during the invasion of the ROK. Diversion for the U.S. Which is the main target: Japan or the ROK?

612680[/snapback]

 

Oh, I get you now. Yeah, in that scenario they likely would. It makes battle sense to do so, not just as a diversion. Forces coming from somewhere else have to stage somewhere. By the same token, they could hold that over Japan's head to try to keep reinforcements from coming through Japan.

 

Isn't this fun?

[KRC]

That would beget another question, would China be willing to let Korea reunite under ROK control, if it were in direct response to an unproved attack by DPRK on Japan; rather than face the possibility of WW III when the US defended Japan?

 

There is always the possibility. If faced with a collapsed DPRK and a re-unified Korea under ROK rule, there is no question that they would support the ROK. I think that they want a smooth transition, though. For the ROK to just immediately assume control would be bad. They need the DPRK to gradually move to a free-market system, and change the juche and Songun attitudes that prevail. This is not something that can (nor should) be done quickly, but there is also not that much time. We have a wild-card in who will take over for the aging KJI.

 

 

 

If Seoul fell in a preemptive attack, would the rest of the country necessarily have to be decimated for DPRK to assume control of the whole country?  I assume fighting would continue, but I don't have a good feel for how fierce it would be.

 

Capture Seoul, Daejeon and Pusan and the country is basically yours. Just taking out Seoul would not guarantee you the country. It is an obvious moral victory and a severe blow to the ROK, but it would not mean the end. Continue and capture Daejeon and Pusan and you have it. Of course, I would defer to Bib and CTM on this.

 

 

 

I am certain that the US, Japan, and some other Western countries would impose trade sanctions on the newly unified Korea; but would China allow the UN to impose sanctions knowing that sanctions would turn the entire peninsula into the basket case that the Northern half had been? 

 

Sanctions would definitely be applied, but probably not through the UN, thereby negating China's influence on those sanctions.

 

 

 

If China were to come around within a couple of years to seeing this not as not necessarily being a bad thing (IF there were a way to keep Korea economically viable, China's influence in SE Asia would necessarily increase and that of the US and Japan would diminish.)  Note, China doesn't have to necessarily be unwilling to impose/support sanctions for this scenario to become viable; if KJI THINKS China may go along with it in some way, would he be willing to do this?

 

Your and Ken's answer lead me to believe that the answer to the question is NO.  I truly hope you are correct as this does provide more time for multilateral talks to succeed.

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I am having a little trouble understanding what you are trying to say here. Could you restate it? Are you talking about China coming on board with sanctions, or at least KJI thinking China would support sanctions?

[KRC]

Indeed. Japan has no nukes, yes?

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Not that I know of. They are just starting to get missile defense systems from the U.S. They are pretty vulnerable to a DPRK attack right now.

 

The ROK is a little better prepared, but they would still be devastated before they could mount an attack. I think I remember you mentioning that you were stationed in Korea at one time. As you know, Seoul is not that far from the border. With the congestion in that city, initial strikes could take out thousands in no time at all. 10-20K dead is not out of possibility for the first few hours.

[KRC]

Isn't this fun?

612720[/snapback]

 

Yup.

[Taro T]

There is always the possibility. If faced with a collapsed DPRK and a re-unified Korea under ROK rule, there is no question that they would support the ROK. I think that they want a smooth transition, though. For the ROK to just immediately assume control would be bad. They need the DPRK to gradually move to a free-market system, and change the juche and Songun attitudes that prevail. This is not something that can (nor should) be done quickly, but there is also not that much time. We have a wild-card in who will take over for the aging KJI.

Capture Seoul, Daejeon and Pusan and the country is basically yours. Just taking out Seoul would not guarantee you the country. It is an obvious moral victory and a severe blow to the ROK, but it would not mean the end. Continue and capture Daejeon and Pusan and you have it. Of course, I would defer to Bib and CTM on this.

 

 

Sanctions would definitely be applied, but probably not through the UN, thereby negating China's influence on those sanctions.

I am having a little trouble understanding what you are trying to say here. Could you restate it? Are you talking about China coming on board with sanctions, or at least KJI thinking China would support sanctions?

612731[/snapback]

I was referring, in a rather poorly stated manner, to whether KJI thought that China would not support sanctions against a DPRK led united Korea. If China and other nations with ties to China would trade with Korea, then although the economy is definitely much worse off than prior to a war and a controlled economy, it isn't necessarily devastated. His opinion of where China would stand in relations with a reunited China would definitely fit into his decisions on whether to attack ROK.

[KRC]

I was referring, in a rather poorly stated manner, to whether KJI thought that China would not support sanctions against a DPRK led united Korea.  If China and other nations with ties to China would trade with Korea, then although the economy is definitely much worse off than prior to a war and a controlled economy, it isn't necessarily devastated.  His opinion of where China would stand in relations with a reunited China would definitely fit into his decisions on whether to attack ROK.

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There is no question that China's opinion matters to KJI. The problem arises as he gets closer to the end of his life. At that point, he may say "screw it" and do what he wants to do, since he (and his father) have basically been living under Chinese authority as long as they have been in power.

 

IMO, KJI believes that China would not support sanctions against a DPRK-led re-unified Korea. I do, however, feel that the economy would be devastated even with China and a few Chinese allies trading with them. There is no way they will be able to make up what they will be losing from the UN, U.S. and what the ROK was giving them. Remember, all of the income the ROK is sending them was generated with the ROK political system and economic system. That would cease to exist with DPRK rule.

[Taro T]

There is no question that China's opinion matters to KJI. The problem arises as he gets closer to the end of his life. At that point, he may say "screw it" and do what he wants to do, since he (and his father) have basically been living under Chinese authority as long as they have been in power.

 

IMO, KJI believes that China would not support sanctions against a DPRK-led re-unified Korea. I do, however, feel that the economy would be devastated even with China and a few Chinese allies trading with them. There is no way they will be able to make up what they will be losing from the UN, U.S. and what the ROK was giving them. Remember, all of the income the ROK is sending them was generated with the ROK political system and economic system. That would cease to exist with DPRK rule.

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I should have added "in KJI's opinion" in regards to the economy not being devastated. If he does agree that the economy would be devastated and he wouldn't have the resources to keep the military on his side, I would expect that he would opt for the status quo. You and BiB seem to believe that KJI would realize that the economy would be devastated and his (and his heir's) hold on power would be short lived. I hope you are correct.

[KRC]

I should have added "in KJI's opinion" in regards to the economy not being devastated.  If he does agree that the economy would be devastated and he wouldn't have the resources to keep the military on his side, I would expect that he would opt for the status quo.  You and BiB seem to believe that KJI would realize that the economy would be devastated and his (and his heir's) hold on power would be short lived.  I hope you are correct.

612800[/snapback]

 

KJI already knows that his economy is in the crapper. He has gone out of his way to give extra (more than usual) to the military to keep them loyal in light of this. He knows that he needs the backing of the military in order for him to hold his power (which is why Jul seems like the more plausible heir to the leadership role). Expect KJI to divert even more to the military. If he feels he is losing control, I would not be shocked to see him strike somewhere (like Japan). This keeps the military occupied with other things.

[Rubes]

KJI already knows that his economy is in the crapper. He has gone out of his way to give extra (more than usual) to the military to keep them loyal in light of this. He knows that he needs the backing of the military in order for him to hold his power (which is why Jul seems like the more plausible heir to the leadership role). Expect KJI to divert even more to the military. If he feels he is losing control, I would not be shocked to see him strike somewhere (like Japan). This keeps the military occupied with other things.

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Interesting. How do you see an attack on Japan playing out?

[KRC]

Interesting. How do you see an attack on Japan playing out?

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Depends on if an attack is also going on simultaneously with the ROK. If it is just Japan, they will use the same model in attacking them as they do with the ROK. Send SF in early to disable stuff, then lob in a crapload of missiles. You just wouldn't have the million troops going through the tunnels and the tanks crossing the border. I see it as mainly missiles and SF strikes.

 

I think that there are others here who could answer that question better than I. I am more focused on the political aspects.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Not that I know of. They are just starting to get missile defense systems from the U.S. They are pretty vulnerable to a DPRK attack right now.

 

The ROK is a little better prepared, but they would still be devastated before they could mount an attack. I think I remember you mentioning that you were stationed in Korea at one time. As you know, Seoul is not that far from the border. With the congestion in that city, initial strikes could take out thousands in no time at all. 10-20K dead is not out of possibility for the first few hours.

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It's a shame we didn't let MacArthur finish the job. I HATE American war-fighting of the alst 60-odd years. Too many politicians and not enough bullets. (gee, I made a funny!)

 

[Mickey]

Oh, I get you now. Yeah, in that scenario they likely would. It makes battle sense to do so, not just as a diversion. Forces coming from somewhere else have to stage somewhere. By the same token, they could hold that over Japan's head to try to keep reinforcements from coming through Japan.

 

Isn't this fun?

612720[/snapback]

Why would they start a war they would certainly lose? Presumably, The Japanese Self Defense Forces, especially their Maritime Forces, would not just sit back and count the missiles. The ROK isn't going to just sit and hope. China isn't going to go to the mattresses for a lunatic regime that started WWIII. Would they have any ally worth having?

[stuckincincy]

Thoughts?

612478[/snapback]

 

Reunification...in five years or so.

[KRC]

Reunification...in five years or so.

612945[/snapback]

How?

[X. Benedict]

How about NK provoking something with Japan, claiming some type of Japanese assault,

and arranging a limited strike on JPN without the ROK involved. The Japanese would probably respond with something limited-including a submarine blockade of NK.

 

This type of standoff could be used to recentralize power in NK and enflame anti-japanese sentiments across Asia.

 

Some amount of US cooperation with JPN would be a plus for the NK.

 

This would not be a nice senario for the US.