What should the Bills have done at QB

[The Senator]

Maybe not in those exact words, but that's exactly what you implied.

607831[/snapback]

Wow...you are actually able to divine my intent?

 

Are you Carnac?

[Pyrite Gal]

The key to making a decision as to who starts at QB in 2006 is that these two players have to meet different standards of on field performance in order to be given the start.

 

The fact that they are going to be judged by different standards of production is "unfisir" in terms of comparing their play and production, but this is simply reality.

 

Holcomb can actually be a much better producing QB than JP, but if JP produces well enough to indicate he has a reasonable shot at becoming quite soon a good enough QB for the Bills to win, he gets the start over the better QB.

 

When Marv declared essentially that the future is now, this gave a real boost to Holcomb getting a fair run at starting. Unlike last year, where TD seemed willing to give JP a whole bunch of room to screw up as long as he was learning the game, the room given to JP to grow is going to be severely constrained.

 

However, given cap room and the Bills investment in a longer-term contract for JP this factor is not going away.

 

My sense is that JP will start:

 

1. Unless he sucks like last year in his first go round.

 

While not showing impossibly huge problems like Todd Collins happy-feet which are difficult to cure overall and certainly not in mid-season. JP did look like a fish out of water with a tendency to rely too much on himself running the ball or dumping it off rather then going to his WRs.

 

He still lost games in his late season go rounds like the Miami game, but did look much better and in control and went to his WRs effectively early lik the multiple TDs to Evans.

 

If JP sucks he sits, but if even if he losses some close ones which Holcomb MIGHT have won, JP probably gets the nod to work on his game.

 

2. Playing against the vanilla Ds of pre-season and without the opponent seriously game planning against him he will do well enough to win the start in pre-season.

 

3. A real key fir JP is going to be the luck of the scheduling draw. If we open against several opponents like Houston last year it will help cement his place in the starting role (and his confidence in himself and his teamates in him which is a big part of succes in this league) and if we do not run into unexpected buzzsaw like our road game against TB with Caddllac, then I suspect JP will be OK and good to go as our starter going up and down through the year.

 

Holcomb is the better QB as best as I can judge right now. His experience allows him to make better decisions and control the flow of the game. He has shown flashes of brilliance during his career, but never has been a consistent enough producer to win the starting job.

 

The Bills MIGHT make the playoffs (with a likely early exit but simply making the plaoffs after the O-fer under TD will be a certain improvement and likely judged a successful season even with an early exit) with JP at QB. I think we will have a slight but noticeably better chance at making the playoffs with Holcomb as our starting QB.

 

However, after 9 years of quality back-up QB play where he has amassed all of a slighly better than .500 record as a starter, Holcomb simply is not in the real world or by contract and salary cap the Bills QB of the future.

 

Holcomb can certainly win the starters job if JP simply sucks next pre-season and in camp and Holcomb plays lights out.

 

However, it is unlikely that JP wll suck as he seems to be a committed guy toward studying and showing good book smarts. He also is a talented athlete used to improvising and running for his life in college. He should be able to run simple stunts which fool opponents running a vanilla D who have not gameplanned for the Bills tendencies.

 

How he does during the season will probably depend much on how hard he has worked and whether he is able to convert that work in production on the field this season AND whether he gets the breaks and this oddly shaped shaped ball bounces the right way in his early games.

 

A lot of the NFL game is confidence. JP needs to develop confidence in himself (which actually he does not seem to lack with his cockiness), confidence in his teammates (he has developed some seeming chemistry with Evans, but never developed this with Moulds because to make it work in this league sometimes you have to lay it out there and trust your teammates to make plays for it to work) and most important have his teammates develop confidence in him.

 

This latter piece is why a player MUST play and actually must succeed to develop in this game as this confidence mostly come from winning and making great plays.

 

Holcomb strikes me as one ofthe best back-ups in the league, but I really doubt he gets the start unless JP screws up (which I doubt he will initially against vanilla Ds).

[Orton's Arm]

I think some of the people here are selling Holcomb a little short. He's probably better than at least a third of the starting QBs in this league. So the question is this: do you win now by starting Holcomb and addressing the lines, or do you build for the future by drafting a QB with a high pick? Based on the tone of the messages coming out of One Bills Drive, it sounds like they're choosing the first course.

[mead107]

I think some of the people here are selling Holcomb a little short. He's probably better than at least a third of the starting QBs in this league. So the question is this: do you win now by starting Holcomb and addressing the lines, or do you build for the future by drafting a QB with a high pick? Based on the tone of the messages coming out of One Bills Drive, it sounds like they're choosing the first course.

607899[/snapback]

god, how come you are not running this team ??? you have it , the gift from god, you know what is best for this team . send jp packing. if holcomb was so good why the !@#$ was he not picked up by some other team ? get real

[The Senator]

god, how come you are not running this team ??? you have it , the gift from god, you know what is best for this team . send jp packing. if holcomb was so good why the !@#$ was he not picked up by some other team ? get real

607910[/snapback]

The previous system did not quite suit my needs, so I just devised a new system to evaluate our QB situation...

 

Holcomb = DOOMED!

 

I would be surprised to see Holcomb here next year - the Bills can find a better backup thru free agency.

[Like A Mofo]

I would be surprised to see Holcomb here next year - the Bills can find a better backup thru free agency.

607924[/snapback]

 

 

Such as?

 

I can understand people being hesitant to keep Holcumb as a #1 QB all year...but as a backup?

 

I think he is just fine as a #2 QB.

[Ramius]

However, after 9 years of quality back-up QB play where he has amassed all of a slighly better than .500 record as a starter, Holcomb simply is not in the real world or by contract and salary cap the Bills QB of the future.

 

607884[/snapback]

 

Actually, holcomb is only 8-13 as a starter, far below .500, and that is even giving him a win for JP's comeback against KC last year, In reality, he should be 7-13, good for a .350 winning %. Thats some quality QB play right there!

 

Also, Arm, i'd liek to see your list of starting QB's in the league last year, and the 10-11 QB's you'd have started holcomb ahead of.

 

I do have to give the Bills credit tho, for hiding holcomb's true ability. We have this apparently amazing QB on our roster, who was our backup, no less, that no other teams expressed much interest in when he was a FA. Also, we've hidden his true talent so well, that no one is even trying to acquire holcomb from us, ala schaub.

[The Dean]

I think some of the people here are selling Holcomb a little short. He's probably better than at least a third of the starting QBs in this league. So the question is this: do you win now by starting Holcomb and addressing the lines, or do you build for the future by drafting a QB with a high pick? Based on the tone of the messages coming out of One Bills Drive, it sounds like they're choosing the first course.

607899[/snapback]

 

 

Actually, i think they'll do pretty much what Pyrite-G stated.

[John from Riverside]

Certainly using a 3rd round pick on Shaub would have been worlds better than using a first, second, and fifth round pick on Losman. It might not have been as good as trading up for Roethlisberger though.

605237[/snapback]

 

I certainly hope JPL proves you wrong this next season....

 

By the way....I am confused by your avitar....Holcombs are should more resemble a limp wet noodle then a robotic

[John from Riverside]

Actually, holcomb is only 8-13 as a starter, far below .500, and that is even giving him a win for JP's comeback against KC last year, In reality, he should be 7-13, good for a .350 winning %. Thats some quality QB play right there!

 

Also, Arm, i'd liek to see your list of starting QB's in the league last year, and the 10-11 QB's you'd have started holcomb ahead of.

 

I do have to give the Bills credit tho, for hiding holcomb's true ability. We have this apparently amazing QB on our roster, who was our backup, no less, that no other teams expressed much interest in when he was a FA. Also, we've hidden his true talent so well, that no one is even trying to acquire holcomb from us, ala schaub.

607937[/snapback]

 

That is actually one of the biggest problems I have with Holcomb as a starter....he CANNOT STAY HEALTHY

[The Senator]

Such as?

607931[/snapback]

Jon Kitna? Jeff Garcia? (Garcia is a 3-time ProBowl QB & had a base of $800K in '05). I'm sure there are others.

 

2006 NFL Free Agents

 

Heck, maybe Shane Matthews - since he's already here, or even Doug Flutie!

 

I'm not too worried if all Holcomb does is 'warm the pine', but I'd rather see someone more competent step in if JP gets hurt.

[Dan Gross]

If you're going to compare Holcomb vs. JP, then why look at Holcomb's stats now? Through the 2002-2003 season, he had pretty much gathered as many attempts as Losman did this last year, so let's take a look at how those numbers compare. It's particularly fair, since 2003-2004 was when Holcomb "came alive." So to compare Holcomb's career up until 2003 with Losman last year:

 

Completion %age

Holcomb: 60.7 (116/191)

Losman: 64.9 (113/228)

 

Yards:

Holcomb: 1348

Losman: 1340

 

Y/A:

Holcomb: 7.1

Losman: 5.9

 

TD/Int:

Holcomb: 10/12

Losman: 8/8

 

Rush/Yards (Ave):

Holcomb: 14/14 (1.0)

Losman: 31/154 (5.0)

 

Sacks:

Holcomb: 16/116 yds

Losman: 27/197 yds

 

Fumbles/Lost:

Holcomb: 5/4

Losman: 7/3

 

Pretty comparable. What's to say that 2005-2006 won't be for Losman what 2003-2004 was for Holcomb?

[Orton's Arm]

Actually, holcomb is only 8-13 as a starter, far below .500,

607937[/snapback]

Winning percentage has got to be one of the dumbest ways ever to evaluate a QB. Are the other 52 men on the roster just there to cheer the QB on while he wins or loses the game all on his own?

[Orton's Arm]

The previous system did not quite suit my needs, so I just devised a new system to evaluate our QB situation...

607924[/snapback]

The Losman man-love crowd has an answer for everything. QB rating doesn't count, because it gives Holcomb too much credit for 2 yard passes on 3rd and 7. Points per game doesn't count, because it gives Holcomb credit for McGee's TD returns. Points produced by the offense per game doesn't count, because IT'S A MEASURE I DEVELOPED TO ADDRESS THE CONCERNS OF THE LOSMAN MAN-LOVE CROWD!

 

Just admit it: you will ignore ANY measure which shows Holcomb outplayed version 2 of Losman. This isn't the message you want to hear, so you've got fingers firmly inserted in both ears.

[Like A Mofo]

Just admit it: you will ignore ANY measure which shows Holcomb outplayed version 2 of Losman. This isn't the message you want to hear, so you've got fingers firmly inserted in both ears.

608070[/snapback]

 

 

Holcumb was a Version 10 or 11 last year (Hes been around for a long time)

 

Losman's "Version 2" really is still a version 1a because JP was still a "rookie" last year no matter how you slice it.

 

I did not realize all QB's need to be very good or better after Year 1.

[Orton's Arm]

Completion %age

Holcomb: 60.7 (116/191)

Losman: 64.9 (113/228)

608017[/snapback]

113/228 works out to a completion percentage of 49.6% for Losman. Given that Holcomb (even before this year) had a significantly higher completion percentage and yards per attempt, I'm not so sure Losman will become the next Holcomb.

 

But even if he does, is that really what we hoped for when we used a first round pick on the guy? I mean, let's say Holcomb is better than 1/3 of the starting QBs in the league: guys like Gus Frerotte, Kyle Boller, Joey Harrington, etc. The fact we have a QB of the future who might someday also be better than guys like those isn't exactly a reason to start making reservations for the next Super Bowl.

[Like A Mofo]

113/228 works out to a completion percentage of 49.6% for Losman.

608075[/snapback]

 

 

True, but did the fact that a QB like Bobby Hebert had a very high completing % indicate that he was a top notch QB?

 

And JP has not even played 1 full season, is that the amount of time a QB should get now to evaluate whether he could be a top notch QB?

[The Senator]

The Losman man-love crowd has an answer for everything. QB rating doesn't count, because it gives Holcomb too much credit for 2 yard passes on 3rd and 7. Points per game doesn't count, because it gives Holcomb credit for McGee's TD returns. Points produced by the offense per game doesn't count, because IT'S A MEASURE I DEVELOPED TO ADDRESS THE CONCERNS OF THE LOSMAN MAN-LOVE CROWD!

 

Just admit it: you will ignore ANY measure which shows Holcomb outplayed version 2 of Losman. This isn't the message you want to hear, so you've got fingers firmly inserted in both ears.

608070[/snapback]

And win-loss percentage doesn't count 'cause it's "one of the dumbest ways ever to evaluate a QB"???

 

Now listen here, you little cum-sponge...

 

1) You don't have to dole out personal insults;

 

2) Don't SHOUT;

 

and...

 

3) There is nothing to ignore, because there is no measure which shows Holcomb outplayed Losman (he didn't), other than the one you invented.

[Orton's Arm]

True, but did the fact that a QB like Bobby Hebert had a very high completing % indicate that he was a top notch QB?

 

And JP has not even played 1 full season, is that the amount of time a QB should get now to evaluate whether he could be a top notch QB?

608089[/snapback]

First of all, this was Losman's second year. He had his whole rookie year to study the playbook, game film, etc. He's had two training camps, two summer offseasons, one and a half preseasons. So I'd expect to see a little more from him than from a true rookie.

 

Still, the production on the field just hasn't been there--at least not yet. But I'm told we should give the guy time, and have a little faith. But faith in what? In TD's ability to make important decisions at QB? TD thought Losman would play as well in 2005 as Bledsoe would have. Obviously, TD was dead wrong about that. Before that, TD gave New England a 1st round pick for Bledsoe, when nobody else was willing to pay that kind of price. Bledsoe lasted only three years, including just half a year of very good performance. Before that, TD made the decision to let Neil O'Donnell hit free agency, on the basis that Kordell Stewart was the QB of the future. However, TD wasn't the Pittsburgh GM when the Steelers drafted O'Donnell in the first place.

 

So there's little or no reason to put faith in TD's judgement about QBs. But what about other GMs around the league? The consensus seemed to be that there was a Big Three at QB in the 2004 draft: Manning, Rivers, and Roethlisberger. Mike Sherman in Green Bay liked Losman in the first round, but Sherman was soon stripped of his GM duties.

 

The point I'm getting at is that the Bills shouldn't let overly optimistic expectations for Losman prevent them from drafting the QB of the future. If Losman works out, great. But there's no real reason to have faith in his doing so.

[Orton's Arm]

And win-loss percentage doesn't count 'cause it's "one of the dumbest ways ever to evaluate a QB"???

 

Now listen here, you little cum-sponge...

 

1) You don't have to dole out personal insults;

 

2) Don't SHOUT;

 

and...

 

3) There is nothing to ignore, because there is no measure which shows Holcomb outplayed Losman (he didn't), other than the one you invented.

608111[/snapback]

As I said earlier, there's no arguing with you.